League News: NHL Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff) - 2021-2 Regular Season Edition, Vol. 2

[usiel]

Colorado loss to Vancouver reminds me of some caps losses this year.

 

[PlushMinus]

Colorado loss to Vancouver reminds me of some caps losses this year.

Yeah I watched some of that game and Colorado looked like they wanted to be doing something else. They were a mess. I wonder if sometimes it's just difficult to stay motivated in the latter part of the regular season? Canes have been pretty crap lately (hope they continue to be!), and Calgary have been a bit lackluster as well.

 

[895]

You can argue that it was each individual players fault that they didn't achieve their potential here and stagnated or regressed re: Bura, Stephenson, Vrana, Sprong, etc.

But when you have that many players all fail to do it, it seems like the blame should be put on the team. The Caps clearly are having a hard time developing prospects. McMichael is stagnating too.

 

[g00n]

You can argue that it was each individual players fault that they didn't achieve their potential here and stagnated or regressed re: Bura, Stephenson, Vrana, Sprong, etc.

But when you have that many players all fail to do it, it seems like the blame should be put on the team. The Caps clearly are having a hard time developing prospects. McMichael is stagnating too.

How many draftees don't pan out for other teams? How many players have we traded away and then their production or TOI went down because they were overvalued in DC?

 

[895]

How many draftees don't pan out for other teams? How many players have we traded away and then their production or TOI went down because they were overvalued in DC?

Are you suggesting the amount of young players who struggled here and found success elsewhere in the past 4 years is not uncommonly high?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Bura, Stephenson and Vrana all developed fine...their problem was fitting in.

Bura had mental issues, needed a fresh start. Stephenson couldn't be gifted a top-6 spot and the accompanying better linemates....there was little opportunity for him here, and Vrana didn't want to be a devoted 2-way player.

If anything, the team problem was drafting these guys at all....

Sprong is simply a very flawed player who should do well in Seattle where he's gifted ice time and has no expectations otherwise....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Are you suggesting the amount of young players who struggled here and found success elsewhere in the past 4 years is not uncommonly high?

Are you suggesting it is?

no trades work out for any other teams, just the ones the Caps trade with?

 

[g00n]

Are you suggesting the amount of young players who struggled here and found success elsewhere in the past 4 years is not uncommonly high?

I think my questions were pretty clearly and fairly worded, yes?

Do we have data showing how "uncommonly high" our pipeline development failures are, and how we consistently lose trades?

How many draftees don't pan out for other teams? How many players have we traded away and then their production or TOI went down because they were overvalued in DC?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Bura, Stephenson and Vrana all developed fine...their problem was fitting in.

Bura had mental issues, needed a fresh start. Stephenson couldn't be gifted a top-6 spot and the accompanying better linemates....there was little opportunity for him here, and Vrana didn't want to be a devoted 2-way player.

If anything, the team problem was drafting these guys at all....

Sprong is simply a very flawed player who should do well in Seattle where he's gifted ice time and has no expectations otherwise....

Burky wanted a top six role that he didn't earn and wasn't going to get. He wasn't better than any of Ovechkin, Wilson, Vrana, or Oshie and he wasn't going to get PP time over 19, 92, or Vrana. That was that.

Vrana was a solid young player who clashed with all of his professional coaches domestically and internationally. He was a talented kid who wasn't the best pro and the team got tired of it. You can debate if that was smart or not but to say he was poorly developed is simply not true.

Every single team has stories of players leaving a team for a multitude of reasons and then flourishing elsewhere. The Lightning didn't tender a contract offer to Carter Verhaeghe after they won the Cup in 2020, he signed for peanuts with the Panthers, and now he's a rising star on their top line. The Islanders traded away Devon Toews so they could keep some other plugs on their roster and he's blossomed into a terrific player for Colorado. The Habs traded a young Ryan McDonagh for the corpse of Scott Gomez.

There are also plenty of guys here who also played their best hockey in DC and then cratered elsewhere like Alzner, Green, and Connolly (and DSP) or guys who were decent elsewhere but really developed here like Oshie and Eller. I would say that some on here are looking to find data to fit a narrative rather than looking at what the data is actually saying.

 

[895]

I think my questions were pretty clearly and fairly worded, yes?

Do we have data showing how "uncommonly high" our pipeline development failures are, and how we consistently lose trades?

How many draftees don't pan out for other teams? How many players have we traded away and then their production or TOI went down because they were overvalued in DC?

Are you suggesting it is?

no trades work out for any other teams, just the ones the Caps trade with?

Draftees not panning out or losing trades is not really what I'm discussing.

I am discussing the number of young players who are traded away from here and have success elsewhere. I feel like it's uncommonly high but it's not like there's data on this subject. You are free to disagree. Perhaps you can think of one team on the top of your head that tops the Caps in this regard but I cannot.

 

[g00n]

Draftees not panning out or losing trades is not really what I'm discussing.

I am discussing the number of young players who are traded away from here and have success elsewhere. I feel like it's uncommonly high but it's not like there's data on this subject. You are free to disagree. Perhaps you can think of one team on the top of your head that tops the Caps in this regard but I cannot.

Well you're the one making the claim so it's up to you to prove the claim. Not us.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m sure someone has a master list of trades by franchise and could do an analysis, but not me lol….

 

[Jags]

You can argue that it was each individual players fault that they didn't achieve their potential here and stagnated or regressed re: Bura, Stephenson, Vrana, Sprong, etc.

But when you have that many players all fail to do it, it seems like the blame should be put on the team. The Caps clearly are having a hard time developing prospects. McMichael is stagnating too.

In a perfect world it should feel like attrition. The young players mature and replace the old players; their increasing value displaces the diminishing value. Sometimes it works out that way (Wilson, Orlov, Carlson), sometimes a player has an easier road because there's no one ahead of them (Johansson, early Burakovsky), sometimes age has nothing to do with it (Vrana leapfrogging Burakovsky), and sometimes it just doesn't work that way at all. We have top-end talent that has aged very well (until very recently in one or two cases).

In hindsight, Burakovsky was very likely brought into the NHL too soon. If he'd arrived the NHL more developed and prepared, he wouldn't have become everyone's little brother, comfortable languishing in secondary roles. And the spot we wanted him to fill eventually got snatched up by a prospect that maybe overcooked in the minors and jumped in with more fire and ambition.

At 25, Sprong was basically only going to break out with a team bad enough to give him the minutes he'd never get with a contender. A contender isn't going to deal with his deficiencies in their top 6 for very long. Their patience will run thin eventually. Once Mantha was back, his clock here ran out.

Stephenson, in my opinion, was just bad coaching. Reirden didn't give him much of a shot. All of the players on the 4th that year were shuffled in and out of the lineup like some weird Hokey Pokey routine. Given our cap struggles, the coaching staff and management should have been pushing him to supplant Hagelin or Eller, and I think he probably would have made that kind of noise if given a real chance. We had already seen what he could do, and he performed at a high level for a long time, so it wasn't a fluke. We just blew it with him.

As for Vrana... *shrug* I don't really care how many goals he scores elsewhere. The guy seemed like a dick.

The coming seasons will be telling in this regard. We'll have to figure out a way to test the abilities of CMM and Lap and maybe a couple others and be willing to move on from the mainstays. Sentimental attachments aside, I ultimately won't have an issue if Oshie and Eller get forced out so long as it's as much about talent as it is about money. Backstrom's a tougher situation. We'll more than likely grin and bear it with his contract regardless of where he ends up in the lineup.

 

[895]

Well you're the one making the claim so it's up to you to prove the claim. Not us.

It's an internet message board not a formal debate lmao.

You can disagree with my point but don't act like you debunked it just because you asked for a source.

 

[Langway]

On the one hand you can credit amateur scouting for selecting these talents. Up until very recently they were able to maintain a steady pipeline of talent pretty much ready off the hop from a raw skill standpoint. It's developing the rest, the intangibles that they struggle with. Maybe these players deserve blame for not fully embracing a more mature approach to their game...but then it also needs to be said that some of their very best players, their leaders, have also not fully embrace such maturity in their games either. It makes it incredibly difficult then to put the blame on support players. It's the culture I'd argue.

From a cap standpoint turnover happens on older teams with so much space spoken for (and also slow to zero growth the past few years). It's more that they haven't quite had in-house talent to replace them and also haven't had secondary depth players groomed and ready to offer other things aside from primarily offense. I mean, at some point if you're going to blame character or something then they should probably draft a different profile player than coveting talent over well-roundedness, yes? All of their defensive players aside from Wilson & Orlov have been external additions. Fehervary is on his way recently. AJF could maybe join him in time, though I have my doubts in Laviolette trusting him fully.

It's why of those secondary moves the Stephenson trade looks worst. They had something that could have fit well from a details standpoint and yet it just wasn't working. It's a great example of belief in a player and a change in scenery kick-starting a career because it was going sideways pretty quick in DC. Coaching was part of it. A lot of turnover in that area doesn't help and because of it there's an entrenched stasis when it comes to the core at this point. They just are what they are, a separate category seemingly, and only everything else is conceived strategic mainly to compensate for their shortcomingsy. I get that they're a veteran team and there's a balance between trust and accountability but it seems like Laviolette errs surprisingly heavily on the player's side, at least when it comes to veterans. It's a tough approach to develop younger players in, esp. when operating under a separate double standard. All of these secondary players were somewhat flawed but then so was the core and yet similar accountability was missing. It's incredibly hard to win that way unless they have great glue guys. That 2018 Cup team had them. This team seems at least one short, if not several more. For me it's really Schultz that just falls into the daft department rather than more of the needed glue/fortitude.

 

[g00n]

I’m sure someone has a master list of trades by franchise and could do an analysis, but not me lol….

A meta analysis seems nearly impossible or at least daunting because you'd have to set metrics regarding success or failure and tbh who f***ing cares anyway. Not worth all that effort when basic common sense tells you confirmation bias is behind the impression that the Caps are so much worse than everyone else.

Just look at Vrana's draft year for a sample (experts on these players, I'm just going by what I see in their career stats):

First guy I clicked was Fiala. Drafted by NSH but went on to success with MIN.
Reinhart is now with FLA instead of BUF though production has been consistent.
Bennett was ok stat-wise for CGY for years similar to Vrana or Bura, and finally hits 20G this season in FLA.
Dal Colle didn't pan out for NYI. Failed development? I don't know why. Do NYI fans constantly talk about that guy?
Virtanen is out of the NHL.
Fleury is on his 3rd team.
Ritchie is on his 4th team and has been with the Marlies recently.
Perlini is on his 4th team and is in the AHL.
Honka not in the NHL.
Milano drafted by CBJ but trying to find footing with ANH.
I think Tuch likely taken from MIN by VGS in expansion but is on 3rd team.
De Angelo trying to establish himself on his 3rd team.
Schmaltz drafted by CHI and is suddenly a point per game player for ARI.
Fabbri drafted by STL and was poised for career year in DET before season-ending injury.
Kapanen passed back and forth between TOR and PIT.
Bleackley hasn't cracked the NHL.
McCann having career year for SEA after playing for VAN, might have been expansion drafted, but was exposed nonetheless.
Scherbak taken by MTL but has seen little NHL time there or in LA.
Goldobin out of NHL after stints with 2 teams.
Sang mostly an AHL player for NYI and now with Marlies.
Quenneville played some for NJ and CHI then left the NHL.


So there's like 3-4 guys in that first round who have stuck with the team that drafted them and produced (Drai, Pasta, Nylander, ??). Most of these players get bumped around quite a bit and a few eventually develop, sometimes elsewhere. That's ONE round in ONE draft. I'm sure it's the same story if you go deeper.

 

[g00n]

It's an internet message board not a formal debate lmao.

You can disagree with my point but don't act like you debunked it just because you asked for a source.

It's not a debate but if you're going to assert something it's shitty to keep putting it on everyone ELSE to disprove your point.

 

[895]

It's not a debate but if you're going to assert something it's shitty to keep putting it on everyone ELSE to disprove your point.

Remember how for the past two years you've been insisting that Kuznetsov caught covid while skipping a team event and @twabby kept asking you to prove this and you never did but you kept insisting anyway? Good times...

 

[g00n]

Remember how for the past two years you've been insisting that Kuznetsov caught covid while skipping a team event and @twabby kept asking you to prove this and you never did but you kept insisting anyway? Good times...

Good times indeed. It was less than a year ago and I provided links like this one.

Kuznetsov and Samsonov could be suspended more than one game. Laviolette: ‘We’re working through things inside the room.’

Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ilya Samsonov appear to be in some major hot water with the team. A day after the Capitals suspended…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

They hit the COVID protocol immediately after that. Twabby and others tried to claim that these two serial restriction scoffers caught it while playing hockey, or some crap. That was the argument, and it was all about drawing reasonable inferences regarding behavior of players and coaches, not some vague assertion about the Caps being worse than everyone else when it comes to trading away players who develop elsewhere.

I can say it's likely they repeated their "who gives a shit about the covid rules" act and got COVID, and then the team didn't like their behavior and suspended them after being late for a meeting. That's reasonable based on the evidence and is obviously an assumption/opinion because they're not giving us official explanations AND the window for contact tracing is gone (and likely private).

Your assertion defies logic and common sense and is mostly confirmation bias.

Either way, don't change the subject or try to nitpick this. I already did some of the work for you above.

 

[895]

Do you have a source on that?

Source?

A source. I need a source.

Sorry, I mean I need a source that explicitly states your argument. This is just tangential to the discussion.

No, you can't make inferences and observations from the sources you've gathered. Any additional comments from you MUST be a subset of the information from the sources you've gathered.

You can't make normative statements from empirical evidence.

Do you have a degree in that field?

A college degree? In that field?

Then your arguments are invalid.

No, it doesn't matter how close those data points are correlated. Correlation does not equal causation.

Correlation does not equal causation.

CORRELATION. DOES. NOT. EQUAL. CAUSATION.

You still haven't provided me a valid source yet.

Nope, still haven't.

I just looked through all 308 pages of your user history, figures I'm debating a glormpf supporter. A moron.

 

[895]

Nah I'm just kidding lol, it's not that serious.

 

[Peeri]

Capitals as organisation value grinders over offensive talent, it's been evident for a good period of time now. I for one can't stand that philosophy, but they keep on going with that. Bringing in Lavi just emphasized it even more. That is why I was confident that none of the skilled players would come here at TDL.

 

[tycoonheart]

Capitals as organisation value grinders over offensive talent, it's been evident for a good period of time now. I for one can't stand that philosophy, but they keep on going with that. Bringing in Lavi just emphasized it even more. That is why I was confident that none of the skilled players would come here at TDL.

But the way they draft suggests otherwise. I think this is more a case of the GM bringing in coaches that don't match the roster/pipeline perfectly. But hey, we did manage to win a cup out of it.

 

[usiel]

A meta analysis seems nearly impossible or at least daunting because you'd have to set metrics regarding success or failure and tbh who f***ing cares anyway. Not worth all that effort when basic common sense tells you confirmation bias is behind the impression that the Caps are so much worse than everyone else.

Just look at Vrana's draft year for a sample (experts on these players, I'm just going by what I see in their career stats):

View attachment 521127

First guy I clicked was Fiala. Drafted by NSH but went on to success with MIN.
Reinhart is now with FLA instead of BUF though production has been consistent.
Bennett was ok stat-wise for CGY for years similar to Vrana or Bura, and finally hits 20G this season in FLA.
Dal Colle didn't pan out for NYI. Failed development? I don't know why. Do NYI fans constantly talk about that guy?
Virtanen is out of the NHL.
Fleury is on his 3rd team.
Ritchie is on his 4th team and has been with the Marlies recently.
Perlini is on his 4th team and is in the AHL.
Honka not in the NHL.
Milano drafted by CBJ but trying to find footing with ANH.
I think Tuch likely taken from MIN by VGS in expansion but is on 3rd team.
De Angelo trying to establish himself on his 3rd team.
Schmaltz drafted by CHI and is suddenly a point per game player for ARI.
Fabbri drafted by STL and was poised for career year in DET before season-ending injury.
Kapanen passed back and forth between TOR and PIT.
Bleackley hasn't cracked the NHL.
McCann having career year for SEA after playing for VAN, might have been expansion drafted, but was exposed nonetheless.
Scherbak taken by MTL but has seen little NHL time there or in LA.
Goldobin out of NHL after stints with 2 teams.
Sang mostly an AHL player for NYI and now with Marlies.
Quenneville played some for NJ and CHI then left the NHL.


So there's like 3-4 guys in that first round who have stuck with the team that drafted them and produced (Drai, Pasta, Nylander, ??). Most of these players get bumped around quite a bit and a few eventually develop, sometimes elsewhere. That's ONE round in ONE draft. I'm sure it's the same story if you go deeper.

I recall I wanted Larkin with the caps pick .

 

[BiPolar Caps]

A meta analysis seems nearly impossible or at least daunting because you'd have to set metrics regarding success or failure and tbh who f***ing cares anyway. Not worth all that effort when basic common sense tells you confirmation bias is behind the impression that the Caps are so much worse than everyone else.

Just look at Vrana's draft year for a sample (experts on these players, I'm just going by what I see in their career stats):

View attachment 521127

First guy I clicked was Fiala. Drafted by NSH but went on to success with MIN.
Reinhart is now with FLA instead of BUF though production has been consistent.
Bennett was ok stat-wise for CGY for years similar to Vrana or Bura, and finally hits 20G this season in FLA.
Dal Colle didn't pan out for NYI. Failed development? I don't know why. Do NYI fans constantly talk about that guy?
Virtanen is out of the NHL.
Fleury is on his 3rd team.
Ritchie is on his 4th team and has been with the Marlies recently.
Perlini is on his 4th team and is in the AHL.
Honka not in the NHL.
Milano drafted by CBJ but trying to find footing with ANH.
I think Tuch likely taken from MIN by VGS in expansion but is on 3rd team.
De Angelo trying to establish himself on his 3rd team.
Schmaltz drafted by CHI and is suddenly a point per game player for ARI.
Fabbri drafted by STL and was poised for career year in DET before season-ending injury.
Kapanen passed back and forth between TOR and PIT.
Bleackley hasn't cracked the NHL.
McCann having career year for SEA after playing for VAN, might have been expansion drafted, but was exposed nonetheless.
Scherbak taken by MTL but has seen little NHL time there or in LA.
Goldobin out of NHL after stints with 2 teams.
Sang mostly an AHL player for NYI and now with Marlies.
Quenneville played some for NJ and CHI then left the NHL.


So there's like 3-4 guys in that first round who have stuck with the team that drafted them and produced (Drai, Pasta, Nylander, ??). Most of these players get bumped around quite a bit and a few eventually develop, sometimes elsewhere. That's ONE round in ONE draft. I'm sure it's the same story if you go deeper.

Wow! Rough first round for the Islanders picking at 5 and 28 and they got nothing out of it.