Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[kb]

Drafting based on a current need is just not a smart thing to do when the timeline for the player is a few years down the road. BPA always, need is the tiebreaker. You sign Pietrangelo, and RD isn't such a dire need anymore.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I'm curious as to if a team will throw a wrench into everybody's draft lists this year like in years prior. Like Boston reaching for Senyshen, Columbus with Foudy, Dallas with Dellandrea. Even higher in the draft with Montreal taking Kotkaniemi at 3, Arizona taking Hayton at 5.

Ya never know, we could see a team falling in love with someone ranked further back and see an unexpected faller.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Gut feeling makes me think we draft one of Mercer, Lapierre, Bourque, Zary or Perreault.

 

[Amadeus]

Gut feeling makes me think we draft one of Mercer, Lapierre, Bourque, Zary or Perreault.

That's like 5 guys rumored to go around 15th so odds are you're probably right.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Gut feeling makes me think we draft one of Mercer, Lapierre, Bourque, Zary or Perreault.

I like Perreault and Zary out of that group. Haven't seen Mercer. No to Lapierre.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

This is the video for William Wallinder. The defensive issues that have popped up, were much more limited when he played in the Allsvenskan. In the video, to me, looked like he was bored of playing in junior taking many more risks than he should. I'd be perfectly happy taking him at 15, but if they know they can get him later, trading back would be better.

great video. Will have to check out more of his stuff

 

[Dion TheFluff]

This is the video for William Wallinder. The defensive issues that have popped up, were much more limited when he played in the Allsvenskan. In the video, to me, looked like he was bored of playing in junior taking many more risks than he should. I'd be perfectly happy taking him at 15, but if they know they can get him later, trading back would be better.

I get very strong Jake Gardiner vibes from him after watching this video, which would still be good value at 15 but some people would obviously hate it.

 

[Stigma]

They aren't videos but tweets

Mancini looks very interesting to me if he's as good as he says.

If you add an "r" and rearrange the letters a bit he becomes "Marincin". Just sayin'!

 

[supermann_98]

I didn't see quick feet or anything that suggests he will be able to keep up to speedy forwards at the next level. That scouting video shows that when he was attacked wide with speed, he would get beat, or struggle to contain. And being old for the class means less projection. Robertson, for example was the youngest in his class and had a finger injury hampering him.

Muzzin isn’t exactly fleet of foot and he gets the job done. I’m pro-Schneider but I’m not the pro scout so whatever they do at 15 I’m fine with it, but if he can be a Muzzin-type guy for us I’m happy to see him in a Leafs jersey. We have enough Dmen who are offensively gifted but are lacking in defensive awareness or grit.

 

[Brobust]

Gut feeling makes me think we draft one of Mercer, Lapierre, Bourque, Zary or Perreault.

This team can afford to take a bit of a risk on Lapierre.

 

[kb]

Muzzin isn’t exactly fleet of foot and he gets the job done. I’m pro-Schneider but I’m not the pro scout so whatever they do at 15 I’m fine with it, but if he can be a Muzzin-type guy for us I’m happy to see him in a Leafs jersey. We have enough Dmen who are offensively gifted but are lacking in defensive awareness or grit.

To me this is a pick you absolutely cannot afford to whiff on. If in 4 to 5 years all you get is a bottom pairing D with limited upside, that's a whiff. You can see that his lateral mobility is limited at this point - OK for junior, and he's one of the oldest draft eligible players, so there is less projection going forward. The other part that is pushing him higher in rankings is being a RHD.

Hey, I'm all in if he turns out to be a RHD version of Muzzin. But the bust rate on D-man whose advantage in junior is based on size without any standout tools is very high.

 

[Morgs]

To me this is a pick you absolutely cannot afford to whiff on. If in 4 to 5 years all you get is a bottom pairing D with limited upside, that's a whiff. You can see that his lateral mobility is limited at this point, and he's one of the oldest draft eligible players, so there is less projection going forward. The other part that is pushing him higher is being a RHD.

Hey, I'm all in if he turns out to be a RHD version of Muzzin. But the bust rate on D-man whose advantage in junior is based on size without any standout tools is very high.

Plus he's one of the oldest players in the draft. It's good he's mostly dominating defensively, but you're talking about a guy that's significantly bigger and older than most of the guys he plays against. Not only that, just looking at that video, Scouching talks about how when he actually played against NHL prospects (Cozens) it was clear he struggled. It's not like it gets easier as he continues to move up, and I've seen people mention he could be ready for a full time job as soon as 2021-22? Come on.

Best case scenario:
2020-21 - He goes back to the WHL and dominates
2021-22 - Bring him up to the AHL, and he dominates like he did in the WHL, with a potential cup of coffee at the end of the season.
2022-23 - Full time RD on the 3rd pairing

Likely scenario:
2020-21 - Goes back to the WHL and dominates because of size & physicality
2021-22 - Struggles in the AHL because he no longer can use his size & physicality against kids
2022-23 - Improves a little in his skating, puck skills, passing, etc in the AHL because he's realized he needs to use skill more in pro hockey to be sucessful.
2023-24 - Hope he's ready for a bottom pairing, PK role to get something out of your investment.

It would likely be somewhere in between these scenarios, but there is just so much for him to work on to get to NHL level that I just can't understand why someone would rather take him and risk wasting the pick on a low-upside guy. There are PLENTY of high-upside F that have enough skill & production to match up to plenty of top-6 F in the NHL today. People are wanting to pick for organizational need, not for who will be able to help us the most & the soonest. We have no idea what our needs will be in 3-4 years when Schneider would finally be ready to play on the bottom pair.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I could really see this being how it goes:

1. NYR-Laf
2. LAK-Byfield
3. OTT-Stutzle
4. DET-Askarov
5. OTT-Drysdale
6. ANA-Perfetti
7. NJ-Raymond
8. BUF-Sanderson
9. MIN-Rossi
10. WIN-Jarvis
11. NSH-Holtz
12. FLA-Quinn
13. CAR-Lundell
14. EDM-Mercer or Holloway

 

[rimshot]

Plus he's one of the oldest players in the draft. It's good he's mostly dominating defensively, but you're talking about a guy that's significantly bigger and older than most of the guys he plays against. Not only that, just looking at that video, Scouching talks about how when he actually played against NHL prospects (Cozens) it was clear he struggled. It's not like it gets easier as he continues to move up, and I've seen people mention he could be ready for a full time job as soon as 2021-22? Come on.

Best case scenario:
2020-21 - He goes back to the WHL and dominates
2021-22 - Bring him up to the AHL, and he dominates like he did in the WHL, with a potential cup of coffee at the end of the season.
2022-23 - Full time RD on the 3rd pairing

Likely scenario:
2020-21 - Goes back to the WHL and dominates because of size & physicality
2021-22 - Struggles in the AHL because he no longer can use his size & physicality against kids
2022-23 - Improves a little in his skating, puck skills, passing, etc in the AHL because he's realized he needs to use skill more in pro hockey to be sucessful.
2023-24 - Hope he's ready for a bottom pairing, PK role to get something out of your investment.

It would likely be somewhere in between these scenarios, but there is just so much for him to work on to get to NHL level that I just can't understand why someone would rather take him and risk wasting the pick on a low-upside guy. There are PLENTY of high-upside F that have enough skill & production to match up to plenty of top-6 F in the NHL today. People are wanting to pick for organizational need, not for who will be able to help us the most & the soonest. We have no idea what our needs will be in 3-4 years when Schneider would finally be ready to play on the bottom pair.

I cannot let this pass. He may or may not be the best choice for our pick but to say that Schneider is older than most of the players he plays against is false. He plays some of his minutes matching up against draft eligibles nearly his age, but most of his minutes are played against the plus D+1 players and overage players, those that normally play the premium minutes for the opposition. Do not try to give the impression that he plays primarily against players younger than he is. The statement that he is bigger than other players may be closer to the truth, but that is hardly a negative as long as he is playing top pairing minutes and playing them effectively. Your statement is true if you subtract all the players in the WHL that are post draft age. But why would it make any sense to do that?

 

[Amadeus]

I could really see this being how it goes:

1. NYR-Laf
2. LAK-Byfield
3. OTT-Stutzle
4. DET-Askarov
5. OTT-Drysdale
6. ANA-Perfetti
7. NJ-Raymond
8. BUF-Sanderson
9. MIN-Rossi
10. WIN-Jarvis
11. NSH-Holtz
12. FLA-Quinn
13. CAR-Lundell
14. EDM-Mercer or Holloway

Not bad at all. I see Raymond going as high as 3 but won't fall further than 5. I had Lundell to Minnesota as he's their type of talent, but they should invest in someone who has a higher offensive ceiling so I like it. Askarkov to Detroit is bold. I see Perfetti as a lock there with maybe Minnesota taking him at 9 as a wild card pick.

 

[JSn0w93]

I could really see this being how it goes:

1. NYR-Laf
2. LAK-Byfield
3. OTT-Stutzle
4. DET-Askarov
5. OTT-Drysdale
6. ANA-Perfetti
7. NJ-Raymond
8. BUF-Sanderson
9. MIN-Rossi
10. WIN-Jarvis
11. NSH-Holtz
12. FLA-Quinn
13. CAR-Lundell
14. EDM-Mercer or Holloway

Imagine the swagger of Detroit to take Askarov at 4. I don't hate it to be honest, and I don't even think it's a risky pick. He's the exception not the norm.

I also don't think Jarvis gets past Winnipeg, they have to try and get players to want to stay there and a high-end prospect that is from there wouldn't be a bad pick.

 

[kk87]

Gut feeling makes me think we draft one of Mercer, Lapierre, Bourque, Zary or Perreault.

If these are the guys we have to choose from, I'd be shocked if we don't attempt to trade back. Hard no on Zary and Mercer from me (not that my input matters).

 

[Pholus]

Mancini looks very interesting to me if he's as good as he says.

PPP did a nice profile on Mancini that has me hoping the Leafs take him with a later round pick: 2020 NHL Draft Profile: Victor Mancini, the next Jake Muzzin?

 

[Judas Tavares]

Not bad at all. I see Raymond going as high as 3 but won't fall further than 5. I had Lundell to Minnesota as he's their type of talent, but they should invest in someone who has a higher offensive ceiling so I like it. Askarkov to Detroit is bold. I see Perfetti as a lock there with maybe Minnesota taking him at 9 as a wild card pick.

Imagine the swagger of Detroit to take Askarov at 4. I don't hate it to be honest, and I don't even think it's a risky pick. He's the exception not the norm.

I also don't think Jarvis gets past Winnipeg, they have to try and get players to want to stay there and a high-end prospect that is from there wouldn't be a bad pick.

I just feel like Askarov is a very Detroit type pick and could see them doing it. Though I do agree Perfetti would really be perfect for them.

If these are the guys we have to choose from, I'd be shocked if we don't attempt to trade back. Hard no on Zary and Mercer from me (not that my input matters).

I agree, I'd think they'd attempt to trade back too. But someone brought up in this thread, if the consensus is that this area of the draft fairly equal, then it might be hard to find takers to move up.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

PPP did a nice profile on Mancini that has me hoping the Leafs take him with a later round pick: 2020 NHL Draft Profile: Victor Mancini, the next Jake Muzzin?

There are definitely some concerns about Mancini's offensive production, but he is a unique case given he is coming from North America and wants to play NCAA, so he does not have a chance to play in the SHL.

 

[kk87]

I agree, I'd think they'd attempt to trade back too. But someone brought up in this thread, if the consensus is that this area of the draft fairly equal, then it might be hard to find takers to move up.

This is definitely a good point - although I could see a team that's high on Zary or Mercer wanting to jump up to snag them. I don't think it'd be smart at all, but I think there are teams that might have an appetite for it.

 

[Stephen]

Yzerman's going to take Askarov for sure. He didn't seem to mind reaching far back for Moritz Seider at 6 last year.

 

[LaPlante94]

We should either trade up to get Jarvis or Sanderson or trade down and take 1 of the many players who imo are in the same tier as the players in the 15 range just to get another 2nd/3rd round pick to play. Jarvis has become my favourite player in the draft that is in our reach though.

 

[supermann_98]

If Ryan O'Rourke gets to our 2nd rounder is there even a question of Dubas taking him? TONS of talent there in the second I hope we can get an extra 2nd trading Johnsson.

Joni Jurmo really intrigues me in what little I've seen and read about his potential. Big dude who can fly and shoot from the point but also looks solid defensively.
Joni Jurmo | Joni Jurmo Profile | Joni Jurmo Scouting Report 2020

 

[Morgs]

If Ryan O'Rourke gets to our 2nd rounder is there even a question of Dubas taking him? TONS of talent there in the second I hope we can get an extra 2nd trading Johnsson.

Joni Jurmo really intrigues me in what little I've seen and read about his potential. Big dude who can fly and shoot from the point but also looks solid defensively.
Joni Jurmo | Joni Jurmo Profile | Joni Jurmo Scouting Report 2020