Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[supermann_98]

Thanks for posting the highlight. I couldn't get it to embed.

 

[Morgs]

I cannot let this pass. He may or may not be the best choice for our pick but to say that Schneider is older than most of the players he plays against is false. He plays some of his minutes matching up against draft eligibles nearly his age, but most of his minutes are played against the plus D+1 players and overage players, those that normally play the premium minutes for the opposition. Do not try to give the impression that he plays primarily against players younger than he is. The statement that he is bigger than other players may be closer to the truth, but that is hardly a negative as long as he is playing top pairing minutes and playing them effectively. Your statement is true if you subtract all the players in the WHL that are post draft age. But why would it make any sense to do that?

Meh. I meant that he's older than most of the guys in this draft and said he's older than the guys he plays against. Either way it's not gonna change my opinion that he's not an overly impressive prospect.

 

[Warden of the North]

Drafting based on a current need is just not a smart thing to do when the timeline for the player is a few years down the road. BPA always, need is the tiebreaker. You sign Pietrangelo, and RD isn't such a dire need anymore.

BPA is an entirely subjective thing in almost every case, except for the very top end of a draft. A case could be made for a player in just about any position after the 3 spot in any given draft.

 

[kb]

Meh. I meant that he's older than most of the guys in this draft and said he's older than the guys he plays against. Either way it's not gonna change my opinion that he's not an overly impressive prospect.

Older, bigger, stronger, and no real standout tools that jump off the page. There isn't much projection left either.

 

[kb]

BPA is an entirely subjective thing in almost every case, except for the very top end of a draft. A case could be made for a player in just about any position after the 3 spot in any given draft.

I agree. But usually any argument will be based around some tool that the player possesses, and that with projection and age a team could envision more physical development. That is not the case here. He tends to gets beat to the outside with speed like Schenn did. He's also one of the oldest in his draft class, and has no real elite tools even at the junior level.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

If Heineman is there at 44 I really hope the leafs snag him. Hes going to be a better version of Zach Hyman.

 

[Rude Dog]

I could really see this being how it goes:

1. NYR-Laf
2. LAK-Byfield
3. OTT-Stutzle
4. DET-Askarov
5. OTT-Drysdale
6. ANA-Perfetti
7. NJ-Raymond
8. BUF-Sanderson
9. MIN-Rossi
10. WIN-Jarvis
11. NSH-Holtz
12. FLA-Quinn
13. CAR-Lundell
14. EDM-Mercer or Holloway

yzermans Russian goalie in TB turned out all right. I think he is the best player in this draft

 

[supermann_98]

Older, bigger, stronger, and no real standout tools that jump off the page. There isn't much projection left either.

19 year old defenseman don't have much projection compared to an 18 year old defenseman? A few months age difference really doesn't matter all that much as most young defenseman take a little longer to pan out. Shea Weber slipped to the 49th pick because maybe he didn't have the foot speed or maybe this logic that a 6'4 defenseman should be dominating his peers in junior and he's not.

Not every defenseman has the same projection curve. They're not all gonna be Makar or Heiskanen and just step in and dominate, and I'll admit that for every Weber there is a Luke Schenn, and I understand why Schneider might not be looked at as having the highest upside. I just hope they take the best kid at 15 that is still available, whether he's Schneider or another defenseman or another forward even.

 

[cj19]

Trade Nylander for Buffalo 8th overall pick. Buffalo keeps Eichel happy providing him a scoring winger. Leafs will get a good prospect plus shed 7 million in salary to sign a right shot D.

8th pick overall- Jarvis or Drysdale
trade 15th pick
to Ottawa 28th&33 picks

28th pick Ridly Crieg
33rd Ozzy Wiesblatt
44- Tristen Robins

 

[mydnyte]

Trade Nylander for Buffalo 8th overall pick. Buffalo keeps Eichel happy providing him a scoring winger. Leafs will get a good prospect plus shed 7 million in salary to sign a right shot D.

8th pick overall- Jarvis or Drysdale
trade 15th pick
to Ottawa 28th&33 picks

28th pick Ridly Crieg
33rd Ozzy Wiesblatt
44- Tristen Robins

Nylander has much more value that the 8th pick in a weak draft. theis draft class is so weak, i wouldnt be surprized if Laff doesnt even end up as good as Nylander.

 

[Stigma]

Lots of talk about trading down, but, realistically, what teams can we do this with? That is, who has the appropriate picks to pull it off? Also, we probably aren't the only team thinking of trading down. That's a factor. We would also have to find a team who thinks there's a gem at 15. Lots of stuff have to go right. I know we pulled it off before, but you really need the stars to align.

 

[HC7]

The draft looks like it will drop slightly after 14-15 which is Marner screwing us over again.

 

[supermann_98]

Trade Nylander for Buffalo 8th overall pick. Buffalo keeps Eichel happy providing him a scoring winger. Leafs will get a good prospect plus shed 7 million in salary to sign a right shot D.

8th pick overall- Jarvis or Drysdale
trade 15th pick
to Ottawa 28th&33 picks

28th pick Ridly Crieg
33rd Ozzy Wiesblatt
44- Tristen Robins

If Pietrangelo signing with us was in the bag I’d consider it, but it would be a shame to trade Nylander to a division rival just to make room for a Tanev or Goudas overpayment

 

[Judas Tavares]

Lots of talk about trading down, but, realistically, what teams can we do this with? That is, who has the appropriate picks to pull it off? Also, we probably aren't the only team thinking of trading down. That's a factor. We would also have to find a team who thinks there's a gem at 15. Lots of stuff have to go right. I know we pulled it off before, but you really need the stars to align.

The one that would look obvious to me is Philly who has #23 + #54
Ottawa has #28 +#32. We would maybe have to toss them #106 as well to make that deal.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

Really wish we could find a way of securing Anton Lundell. Probably ends up going 8 or 9th but he'd be such a good player to add.

 

[Morgs]

Really wish we could find a way of securing Anton Lundell. Probably ends up going 8 or 9th but he'd be such a good player to add.

I've really come around on him. People talk about his low offensive ceiling (and I'm not saying he's going to be a great offensive player), but there is a legit base to work with and even his underlying numbers are good offensively.

That coupled with easily the best defensive forward in the draft has all the makings of a top-10 pick that can fast track to the NHL.

 

[Stigma]

The one that would look obvious to me is Philly who has #23 + #54
Ottawa has #28 +#32. We would maybe have to toss them #106 as well to make that deal.

Thanks. We'll see what happens....

 

[kb]

I've really come around on him. People talk about his low offensive ceiling (and I'm not saying he's going to be a great offensive player), but there is a legit base to work with and even his underlying numbers are good offensively.

That coupled with easily the best defensive forward in the draft has all the makings of a top-10 pick that can fast track to the NHL.

I get the ROR vibe from him actually....

 

[Morgs]

I get the ROR vibe from him actually....

I'm not sure he has the offensive ceiling of ROR because he's pretty elite offensively in basically everything, but I understand what you're saying stylistically.

For me I think he's closer to Jordan Staal (analytical god, with lackluster finishing ability) but really the only difference between ROR and Staal is the fact ROR is a good finisher/elite passer.

 

[JSn0w93]

Nylander has much more value that the 8th pick in a weak draft. theis draft class is so weak, i wouldnt be surprized if Laff doesnt even end up as good as Nylander.

I agree on Lafreniere, I do think he will end up better than Nylander, but I'm not overly enamored with him as a 1st overall pick. Think he's more Hall, Hischier, Ekblad than MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews. The package he brings is great as it is now, but he's had an NHL frame from a couple seasons now so less projectable. He's really been a man amongst boys in the Q. I think he will be a good 5 tool first line winger. Which is a very good player to have, but not a franchise level talent.

I disagree with you on what follows, I feel the top 10 and a little after is as strong as we've seen the past few years, and there are good players I really like until the middle of the 3rd round. I feel there will be a lot of top 6 forwards and star forwards from this draft.

 

[Morgs]

I agree on Lafreniere, I do think he will end up better than Nylander, but I'm not overly enamored with him as a 1st overall pick. Think he's more Hall, Hischier, Ekblad than MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews. The package he brings is great as it is now, but he's had an NHL frame from a couple seasons now so less projectable. He's really been a man amongst boys in the Q. I think he will be a good 5 tool first line winger. Which is a very good player to have, but not a franchise level talent.

I disagree with you on what follows, I feel the top 10 and a little after is as strong as we've seen the past few years, and there are good players I really like until the middle of the 3rd round. I feel there will be a lot of top 6 forwards and star forwards from this draft.

I completely agree. I think this is an exceptionally strong draft unless you feel drafts need to have lots of future NHL D and C. This draft has ~45 first round and ~30 second round talents.

The issue is that like 70%+ of them will end up as wingers.

 

[nuck]

Lots of talk about trading down, but, realistically, what teams can we do this with? That is, who has the appropriate picks to pull it off? Also, we probably aren't the only team thinking of trading down. That's a factor. We would also have to find a team who thinks there's a gem at 15. Lots of stuff have to go right. I know we pulled it off before, but you really need the stars to align.

Ottawa is the prime candidate because they have the later 1st and all those 2nds.Calgary and Anaheim have a later 1st and a second as a basis. NJ has the two later 1sts and a couple of players the Leafs might have some interest in, and that sort of deal might work with several clubs who have a later 1st and a player the Leafs like.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Ottawa is the prime candidate because they have the later 1st and all those 2nds.Calgary and Anaheim have a later 1st and a second as a basis. NJ has the two later 1sts and a couple of players the Leafs might have some interest in, and that sort of deal might work with several clubs who have a later 1st and a player the Leafs like.

New Jersey likely makes the most sense to me. 18th or 20th overall still gives a guy who we likely value as much as the guy we would get at 15 (this assumes a guy like Mercer or Schneider is the BPA), but Jersey may decide they like a guy like Schneider enough to move up and snag him.

The only thing is that they do not have a 2nd round pick. So we would need to do like 18th/20th + NYI's 2nd next year, and maybe we also get to upgrade 126th overall to 84th overall or something (since NYI's 2nd next year is likely going to be too late to get the value Jersey needs to go from 18th to 15th).

 

[kb]

New Jersey likely makes the most sense to me. 18th or 20th overall still gives a guy who we likely value as much as the guy we would get at 15 (this assumes a guy like Mercer or Schneider is the BPA), but Jersey may decide they like a guy like Schneider enough to move up and snag him.

The only thing is that they do not have a 2nd round pick. So we would need to do like 18th/20th + NYI's 2nd next year, and maybe we also get to upgrade 126th overall to 84th overall or something (since NYI's 2nd next year is likely going to be too late to get the value Jersey needs to go from 18th to 15th).

Anaheim has #27 and #36 as well (in addition to #6).

 

[Judas Tavares]

One thing to gear up for every year is the big debate on the board regarding who was picked vs. who we left on the board. Without looking things up, this is what I can remember:

2008: Most were happy we moved up for Schenn who was seen as a franchise piece, but there were some quite upset we didn't take Filatov for a much needed injection of young skill into the organization.

2009: I think most were happy with Kadri, but I do remember some wanting Cowan, which would have given us a young twin towers on the backend.

2010: Oh dear. I guess we were all unanimously mad at Burke.

2011: Having such late picks, it was kind of everywhere and I don't quite remember much. I think most thought Percy was a smart pick. I remember some sadness regarding not drafting Saad. I can only imagine how many people here are hoping for a (more successful) Biggs type pick this year....

2012: This one is also tough to remember, I think Rielly was a bit of a surprise but people were happy, though there were a lot of Grigorenko and Forsberg supporters, like me.

2013: This was also late and after losing out on Mantha, I think people were meh overall with whoever was left at that point, though I do remember some disappointed to see us not take the falling Shinkaruk.

2014: This was skill vs. will. Nylander vs. Ritchie. Fairly divided board, lots of arguing, and also with some saying that in going with skill, Ehlers should have been the pick.

2015: A lot were happy with Marner, though the Marner vs. Hanifin debate was big, with a few Provorov, Werenski and Barzal supporters sprinkled in.

2016: I mean other than a few trolls saying it should have been Laine, pretty unanimous and happy board.

2017: This one was a big surprise for me. The board was pretty unanimously happy, and I guess because Liljegren was talked about as a top 2 pick for so long, even the detractors to his type of player agreed you can't go wrong having him slip that far. I was still surprised how civil this board was after that pick.

2018: This is where the Dubas debating really came in. I remember lots of people upset about the trade down and the Soo familiarity, with plenty loving Bokk. Also, I was one of those who wanted Veleno who was still on the board. But there were a lot of candidates for this draft so the board was all over the place.

2019: Bonus, we will do the second round here! A lot of Robertson vs. Leason fighting. Leason looked to have a very rough year statistically this year....


I feel like our board has never been so divided (we are kind of like the US). That combined with a pick right in the middle of the first round, oh I think there is gonna be some fighting this year. Good luck mods! The only way I see it not happening is if someone really drops and we nab him (ala Liljegren in 2017). Otherwise oh boy....