NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[Llamamoto]

I don't see how that affects anything that guy said. The difference in PPG between Matthews and McDavid is still smaller than that of Stamkos vs Malkin. Sure Matthews isn't 2nd in league scoring but how much of that is due to injuries/suspension that saw him miss 9 games?



Again, with a -9 game handicap. Everyone around him will have played at least 80 games. That he was able to be in the top 5~ in scoring despite so much time missed is a point in his favour, not against him.



No but he's a right sight better than McDavid in that regard, so much so that it can't be ignored.

View attachment 537823View attachment 537824

Do you know how GSVA is calculated or are you just using it because it fits your narrative?

It's a terrible stat.

 

[Straight Fire]

The final 3 should be:

Matthews, Gaudreau and McDavid. Nothing else makes sense to me.

Hons to Huberdeau

Secondary Hons to Josi and Shesterkin

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Do you know how GSVA is calculated or are you just using it because it fits your narrative?

It's a terrible stat.

Other models have Matthews well ahead of
McDavid defensively as well.

 

[Llamamoto]

Other models have Matthews well ahead of
McDavid defensively as well.

Yeah I agree that Matthews is a (slightly) better defensive player, but McDavid's offense makes up for it. And there are aspects other than scoring that he's better at. Compare their exits/entries/neutral zone play in the cards you just posted.

But in general I'm not a fan of singular stats that try to combine a bunch of others. Especially when they only take into account 20-30 games, like the JFresh cards you just posted.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Other models have Matthews well ahead of
McDavid defensively as well.

I've spoken about this before, but I'll say it again. When you find yourself on an offensively dominant line, such as the Marner-Matthews-Bunting line, the matchups you get aren't trying to score on you. They're trying to shut you down. They don't care about scoring goals when Matthews and Marner are on the ice, their sole focus is shutting those two down. This makes playing "defense" for players like Matthews and Marner much easier because they hardly have to do much defending, at least compared to most other players.

So posting these defensive metrics are just so so misleading because they really remove the context of the roles that these players play and the matchups they get. McDavid gets the same effect of Matthews where his matchups are just trying to shut him down, but neither one of these guys are used in defensive roles whatsoever, so while metrics might indicate one is superior to the other, the reality is that neither one of them have much defensive impact in general, because neither one of them are actually used in situations where they are actively defending instead of just "go out there and try to score".

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Matthews drops out of the Top 5 in scoring, thanks to Kaprizov.

Lol and? What's your point you think all the voters are gonna say ok time to switch votes
Mvp incoming for papi.....

 

[authentic]

I've spoken about this before, but I'll say it again. When you find yourself on an offensively dominant line, such as the Marner-Matthews-Bunting line, the matchups you get aren't trying to score on you. They're trying to shut you down. They don't care about scoring goals when Matthews and Marner are on the ice, their sole focus is shutting those two down. This makes playing "defense" for players like Matthews and Marner much easier because they hardly have to do much defending, at least compared to most other players.

So posting these defensive metrics are just so so misleading because they really remove the context of the roles that these players play and the matchups they get. McDavid gets the same effect of Matthews where his matchups are just trying to shut him down, but neither one of these guys are used in defensive roles whatsoever, so while metrics might indicate one is superior to the other, the reality is that neither one of them have much defensive impact in general, because neither one of them are actually used in situations where they are actively defending instead of just "go out there and try to score".

If the players Matthews faces aren’t trying to score then our goalies really just put up some all time bad goaltending performances with him on the ice lol

You are really really good at being hilariously wrong though, keep up the good work

 

[34]

Matthews drops out of the Top 5 in scoring, thanks to Kaprizov.

60 goals…. Nuff said.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

60 goals…. Nuff said.

Lol all these other stars playing in the last few games to stat pad.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

If the players Matthews faces aren’t trying to score then our goalies really just put up some all time bad goaltending performances with him on the ice lol

You are really really good at being hilariously wrong though, keep up the good work

Well your goalies were terrible this year, so yeah you're probably right. Or maybe when Matthews does have to occasionally defend, he's not actually that good at it.

And obviously they aren't ever trying to score. But generally the focus on scoring is a lot lower when you're matching up against a McDavid or a Matthews.

And you can laugh all you want, but this isn't an effect I made up. I've heard many former players talk about this effect. Alfredsson just recently was talking about how when he went from playing with Todd White to playing with Spezza and Heatley that all of a sudden players on the other team weren't even trying to score when his line was out. They were just trying to shut them down.

 

[34]

Lol all these other stars playing in the last few games to stat pad.

Matthews literally misses the first part of the season, plays at 50% while recovering from wrist Surgery for the first 40 games or so…and then takes the last week and a half off of the season, and still wins the ROCKET. Draisaitl playing 30 min a night riding shotgun with McDavid and they can’t touch him.

Matthews literally saying “hold my beer” lol

Back to back!

 

[Incognito]

Matthews drops out of the Top 5 in scoring, thanks to Kaprizov.

Because he missed 9 games. He's still second in points per game though.

 

[PostBradMalone]

Because he missed 9 games. He's still second in points per game though.

He should try to play more next time, might actually finish with the big dogs then.

Draisaitl playing 30 min a night riding shotgun with McDavid and they can’t touch him.

Since you’re still living in 2017, would you like to know what Bitcoin is worth now?

 

[genk]

Matthews pretty handily.

 

[RedWingzz]

McDavid
Matthews
Gaudreau

 

[alexgreeen]

Because he missed 9 games. He's still second in points per game though.

second Kucherov

 

[ManofSteel55]

I don't see how that affects anything that guy said. The difference in PPG between Matthews and McDavid is still smaller than that of Stamkos vs Malkin. Sure Matthews isn't 2nd in league scoring but how much of that is due to injuries/suspension that saw him miss 9 games?



Again, with a -9 game handicap. Everyone around him will have played at least 80 games. That he was able to be in the top 5~ in scoring despite so much time missed is a point in his favour, not against him.



No but he's a right sight better than McDavid in that regard, so much so that it can't be ignored.

View attachment 537823View attachment 537824

Missing games is actually a bad thing. Not an excuse to explain away lesser results.

 

[ManofSteel55]

McDavid
Matthews
Gaudreau

McDavid
Gaudreau
Kaprizov
Shesterkin
Huberdeau
Matthews

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Missing games is actually a bad thing. Not an excuse to explain away lesser results.

You've certainly changed your tune since you advocated for McDavid to win Calder despite his missing half a season.

It's actually about the voters, and it is a real possibility that a few (not many IMO) voters WILL hold Panarin's non-NHL pro experience against him, and could also look at the fact that he played with the best player in the league as a reason to not vote for him as well.

When healthy, McDavid is the runaway winner, he was NHL rookie of the month every healthy month. It all comes down to whether or not the time missed takes enough away from those months. And honestly, in the past time missed has been a huge dealbreaker for a lot of voters too.

Based on points, its Panarin obviously. Based on who is the "best" rookie (which is how it is worded), its McDavid. But it all depends on how the voters vote, and we all know that they aren't the most logical with their votes a lot of the time.

How about the fact that McDavid was rookie of the month in every month he was healthy, including the one where Ghost broke that record.

And a lot do so by which has shown to be the best player. And when healthy, we all know who that is. Not to worry though, Panarin will win.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

Everyone wants to point to AM's on-ice sv% as an indicator of how sweet he is defensively, but conveniently forget about stats whenever McDavid's on-ice shooting % being miles behind his career average is brought up. Literally nobody will reply to any comments referring to McDavids historic play driving this season in combination with his rotten luck (I expect because it kills a lot of the other MVP narratives). McD could rightfully expect to have about 20 additional 5x5 pts this year based on career averages. Best play driving season of analytics era, terrible luck.

This post makes some strong points but it's not particularly fair to compare on ice sv% and on ice sh% in terms of individual impact from forwards. Matthews and McDavid both have much more control of their teams ability to convert chances than they do over their goalies ability to stop them

 

[ManofSteel55]

You've certainly changed your tune since you advocated for McDavid to win Calder despite his missing half a season.

Not comparable really. Apples and oranges. Nice attempt at a deflection though. I stand by my statements about McDavid and the Calder. But that isn't applicable at all, as Matthews wasn't the most valuable this year even without missing games.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Not comparable really. Apples and oranges. Nice attempt at a deflection though. I stand by my statements about McDavid and the Calder. But that isn't applicable at all, as Matthews wasn't the most valuable this year even without missing games.

Not comparable my ass lol. McDavid didn't win the Calder because his point totals didn't warrant it, but his stat-line was only unimpressive compared to Panarin because he missed games due to injury.

The biggest argument in this thread against Matthews is that his point total isn't good enough to win, but he only paced so far behind the likes of McDavid, Huberdeau, Gaudreau, and Draisaitl because he played 7-9 games fewer than them. Even then, Matthews was just outside the top 5 in top point getters (tied for 6th) and led the league in EV Goals, is tied for 3rd for EV Points, and is 3rd in Points-per-game.

No voter is seriously going to look at raw point totals and not take into account games missed and even strength scoring.

 

[Dust]

Not comparable my ass lol. McDavid didn't win the Calder because his point totals didn't warrant it, but his stat-line was only unimpressive compared to Panarin because he missed games due to injury.

The biggest argument in this thread against Matthews is that his point total isn't good enough to win, but he only paced so far behind the likes of McDavid, Huberdeau, Gaudreau, and Draisaitl because he played 7-9 games fewer than them. Even then, Matthews was just outside the top 5 in top point getters (tied for 6th) and led the league in EV Goals, is tied for 3rd for EV Points, and is 3rd in Points-per-game.

No voter is seriously going to look at raw point totals and not take into account games missed and even strength scoring.

Awards aren't handed out based upon pace, or "what ifs" though. I think back to 2012 when Landeskog won the Calder over Nugent Hopkins, despite Nugent Hopkins having the exact same number of points in 20 fewer games. Landeskog was fully deserving of that award based upon what he accomplished, not what someone else didn't because they missed time.

And I'm not saying that Matthews isn't deserving of winning the award, I'm just saying that the missed time shouldn't be seen as a positive thing to help his case.

 

[Apari]

I'm still amazed how many of you guys aren't even considering Josi to be in top 3/5. He managed to drag Nashville into playoffs, got into 8th all time list of dmen in points in a season (by far the best season from active dmen) and finished 10 points ahead of next Nashville player (Duchene) and next dman in points (Makar).

Just in comparison Matthews was 17th player alltime to score 60, 3rd active and t-2nd best goal total from active players.
Also McDavids points total is 3rd best from an active player and I don't even want to count how many has scored 123+ before..

I don't think Josi gets enough credit for his season from you guys or apparently even from journalists.. I bet it has something to do with the fact that his playing in not that sexy market in Nashville.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Not comparable my ass lol. McDavid didn't win the Calder because his point totals didn't warrant it, but his stat-line was only unimpressive compared to Panarin because he missed games due to injury.

The biggest argument in this thread against Matthews is that his point total isn't good enough to win, but he only paced so far behind the likes of McDavid, Huberdeau, Gaudreau, and Draisaitl because he played 7-9 games fewer than them. Even then, Matthews was just outside the top 5 in top point getters (tied for 6th) and led the league in EV Goals, is tied for 3rd for EV Points, and is 3rd in Points-per-game.

No voter is seriously going to look at raw point totals and not take into account games missed and even strength scoring.

It absolutely is not comparable. The better comparable using the Calder, as mentioned by another poster above, is Nuge vs Landeskog. Using your logic for Matthews, Nuge should have won. But ue didn't because those missed games aren't a positive thing. You don't get to ignore the fact that in those missed games, he was useless to his team.

By the way, the missed games aren't the biggest reason for Matthews being left off of ballots, despite what you say, but it is an important one and can't be ignored.

If Austin Matthews wins the Hart this year (and yes, I know he likely will because of the story), it further destroys the credibility of the award. Between Matthews winning when there are 5 others who should be on the ballot ahead of him McDavid, Shesterkin, Kaprizov. Gaudreau, Josi), and Taylor Hall winning a couple of years ago due to the narrative of it, the award that was once the most important individual award the NHL has is quickly becoming a joke.