here Is a stat: Of the last 11 hart trophy winners, 7 of them have been art Ross winners. All 7 art Ross winners who won the hart finished in double digits Over second for the art Ross. In the other 4 years where the art Ross winner didn’t win the hart, all 4 of those art Ross winners finished in single digits over second place.
NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy
- Thread starter koyvoo
- Start date
Yea the guy who scored 51 goals in 50 games and has more goals than anyone since his career began with less games played is a superstar in theory.
BakedYams
Registered User
- Jan 14, 2017
- 640
- 758
I don't think they give a lot of credit in the voting process to the ideals of 'down year' and 'bad luck' nor 'could be a lot better' so I don't think McDavid is a shoo-in. That's a shame because it's still an unreal season that we're just used to seeing by now.
I do think it'll be a close race however as it'll be between Matthews, Gaudreau, and McDavid in a close 1-2-3 spot, with Josi and Huberdeau behind. With all deference to the 'stacked' teams argument, I like Matthews as my vote narrowly over Josi.
I do think it'll be a close race however as it'll be between Matthews, Gaudreau, and McDavid in a close 1-2-3 spot, with Josi and Huberdeau behind. With all deference to the 'stacked' teams argument, I like Matthews as my vote narrowly over Josi.
McFlash97
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2017
- 7,681
- 6,830
If Hart trophies were handed out on a whim to goal scorers on a big streak in the middle of the season, Bossy, Mogilny, Bure, and Kurri would have multiple Hart trophies.
Matthews has not played enough games, is "5th" in league scoring. Hart trophies don't go to players with these credentials.
Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
- 9,452
- 15,669
Matthews can play a maximum of 74 games. Going back to 1968 (when the NHL doubled in size) only four skaters (i.e. non-goalies) have won the Hart trophy playing in 75 or fewer games (or the equivalent if the season was other than 82 games).
Those were - Mario Lemieux in 1993 and 1996, Peter Forsberg in 2003, and Evgeni Malkin in 2012. Each time they won the Art Ross trophy.
You'd have to go back to 1965 to find a player who won the Hart while missing about 10% of the schedule and not winning the Art Ross.
Every season is different, but it would be surprising if Matthews won the Hart at this point. Scoring two more goals to get over 60 would help, but I'm not sure if that would be enough.
Mr Positive
Cap Crunch Incoming
- Nov 20, 2013
- 37,998
- 18,919
I really feel if the Hart weren't subjective, like if there were some kind of stats that described everything involved in it, McDavid would win it. He gets a lot of points. He drives the play. He isn't soft at all either. He's not just a captain because he's the best player. He is a great leader. He has said he wanted to commit to better two way play and he's done it, and the team has followed suit. There were moments like when times were down and the fans were bashing everyone, but especially Koskinen, McDavid said Koskinen was the most underrated player on the team, and Koskinen and the team responded by playing great, essentially saving the season (this was while Smith was out with injury). If McDavid is angry and ashamed about a performance, the team is too, and you can see it. McDavid is the Oilers, and yet he's humble and eager to pass off the puck and the credit to those around him.
To me, the astonishing stat landmarks of Matthews and Josi anchor a compelling narrative for them to get the Hart, but they aren't really it. Stats landmarks are ultimately arbitrary. But, the Hart is a subjective award voted on by writers and so the best narrative will decide it.
To me, the astonishing stat landmarks of Matthews and Josi anchor a compelling narrative for them to get the Hart, but they aren't really it. Stats landmarks are ultimately arbitrary. But, the Hart is a subjective award voted on by writers and so the best narrative will decide it.
The Hart shouldn't go to the 5th highest scorer and a player that is definitely not the most valuable player to his team. 4 other players have 50 goals also. Most goals already has a trophy, it's called the Rocket Richard Trophy.
Video Nasty
Registered User
- Mar 12, 2017
- 5,648
- 9,851
The slim chance that Josi had melted away over the last two and a half weeks. He has 2 goals 2 assists for 4 points in his last 9 games and Nashville has gone 3-4-2.
Huberdeau and Gaudreau are certainly going to soak up a lot of votes.
McDavid should be the rightful winner because he checks all the boxes. Going to win the Art Ross with 120+ points, the team is 28-11-4 over the past 3 months, he’s literally the MVP year in and year out, and his case has only grown stronger down the stretch. Unfortunately, voters have the attention span of a toddler, so simply winning the Hart last year makes me feel like his great season has been tuned out a bit.
I continue to feel that Matthews was the chosen one a month ago and it’s not going to matter that he has missed 8 games on the season, he missed 3 games down the stretch, has a current 5 game goal less streak going that might contribute to him not even getting to the 60 goals that seemed like a lock, and he is far back from the Art Ross.
I will be very pleasantly surprised if the voters buck human nature and reverse course on a decision they seem to have made a month ago and give it to McDavid over Matthews.
Huberdeau and Gaudreau are certainly going to soak up a lot of votes.
McDavid should be the rightful winner because he checks all the boxes. Going to win the Art Ross with 120+ points, the team is 28-11-4 over the past 3 months, he’s literally the MVP year in and year out, and his case has only grown stronger down the stretch. Unfortunately, voters have the attention span of a toddler, so simply winning the Hart last year makes me feel like his great season has been tuned out a bit.
I continue to feel that Matthews was the chosen one a month ago and it’s not going to matter that he has missed 8 games on the season, he missed 3 games down the stretch, has a current 5 game goal less streak going that might contribute to him not even getting to the 60 goals that seemed like a lock, and he is far back from the Art Ross.
I will be very pleasantly surprised if the voters buck human nature and reverse course on a decision they seem to have made a month ago and give it to McDavid over Matthews.
Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
- 9,452
- 15,669
The Hart trophy tracks very closely with the Art Ross. Going back to 1995, there have been 26 Hart trophy winners.
They can be broken down as:
- 16 times the Hart winner won the Art Ross (I'm including Lindros, who lost the Art Ross on a tie-breaker)
- 2 times the Hart winner was 2nd in scoring (both times they were 3 points out of first - Sakic in 2001 and Ovechkin in 2009)
- 2 times the Hart winner was 3rd in scoring (Perry was 6 points behind in 2011, and Ovechkin was 4 points behind in 2013)
- 4 goalies (twice it was peak Hasek, and in the other two years, they gave it to a goalie when the Art Ross winner missed the playoffs)
- 1 defenseman (Pronger in 2000 - largely because Jagr, the league's best player, missed a quarter of the season)
- 1 forward lower than 3rd in scoring (Hall in 2018 - 15 points behind the Art Ross winner, I suspect largely because McDavid missed the playoffs)
If you drop the four seasons when the Art Ross winner missed the playoffs (2002, 2013, 2015, 2018) - the Art Ross winner won the Hart 16 out of 22 times (73%). That number is even higher if you exclude two seasons where the clear-cut best player missed a quarter of the year (2000 and 2013 - not applicable here) and/or where there was a superhuman goalie (1997 and 1998).
I'm not saying these patterns are necessarily fair or accurate - but assuming McDavid hangs on to win the Art Ross, since the Oilers are headed to the playoffs, you'd have to think he'll be the favourite for the Hart trophy.
IMO by definition the award should go to Kaprizov or Josi. I think with those 2 guys taken off their respective team there are legitimate arguments they would not be playoff teams. Other candidates like Huberdeau, Matthews, McDavid and Gaudreau have guys on their teams who are just as important (and at least one other guy close to or at 100 points). Huberdeau also has a good argument due to the amount of games missed by Barkov as well.
Nadal On Clay
Djokovic > Nadal > Federer
- Oct 11, 2017
- 3,245
- 3,096
As always, great analysis.
I’d also point out that every time the 2nd or 3rd best scorer won over the Art-Ross winner in your timespan, they had more goals, which is not the case this season with Huberdeau or Gaudreau.
TheGoldenJet
Registered User
Very thorough breakdown.
Agreed, McDavid will win the Hart Trophy if he wins the Art Ross.
Great insight from both of you.
I’ve thought for a while now that it was a two horse race between Matthews and McDavid. Had Matthews stayed healthy and not slumped and finished top 3 or 4 in the Art Ross I thought he had a good shot at the Hart, given his large lead in goals.
But as it is I think McDavid is the winner, unless he loses the Art Ross race.
Rengorlex
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2021
- 4,775
- 8,636
I don't understand why compare the 2nd best player of the teams instead of the whole supporting casts. Huberdeau has the best supporting cast and it's not even close, his team doesn't miss a beat whether he's on the ice or not.
Hammerlik
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2022
- 107
- 79
Going by how much more the team would suck if the said player vanished, I gotta go with (in no order):
McDavid, Josi, Kaprizov, Gaudreau. If the gun is pointed at my head, I choose Josi.
I don't see FLO/TOR sucking as much if you take out Hubby/Matthews.
McDavid, Josi, Kaprizov, Gaudreau. If the gun is pointed at my head, I choose Josi.
I don't see FLO/TOR sucking as much if you take out Hubby/Matthews.
TheUnusedCrayon
Registered User
- Apr 12, 2018
- 2,137
- 2,237
I honestly think it'd be a travesty if Gaudreau doesn't get it. He's getting points in the hardest way possible, has elevated his line to ridiculous numbers and his +/- is among the best in league history and certainly the best since the cap era.
He's got the highest points/60 minutes in the league as well.
I just don't know how he doesn't win. Huberdeau I can understand the argument because he's the better overall player but he's also less valuable to his team's success. Without Gaudreau, the Flames don't make the playoffs. Without Huberdeau, the Panthers still make the playoffs.
He's got the highest points/60 minutes in the league as well.
I just don't know how he doesn't win. Huberdeau I can understand the argument because he's the better overall player but he's also less valuable to his team's success. Without Gaudreau, the Flames don't make the playoffs. Without Huberdeau, the Panthers still make the playoffs.
I think, Gaudreau is little different to others there. He is part of very good line, which is more than sum of players. If you remove Tkachuk or Lindholm, it would affect more to Gaudreau than any player in other teams to that player. Of course, it's very difficult to judge these. But that would drop Gaudreau in my mind to next category.
You aren't wrong either, Gaudreau also has some great supporting cast too, McDavid probably has some of the worst out of the candidates
BakedYams
Registered User
- Jan 14, 2017
- 640
- 758
Calgary has multiple 100 point players and multiple (could be up to 4) 40 goal scorers, along with a Vezina-caliber goalie. I'm not sure your statement about them missing the playoffs stands though Gaudreau is likely to get lots of 1st place votes regardless. He's always been underrated for this award.
TheUnusedCrayon
Registered User
- Apr 12, 2018
- 2,137
- 2,237
Also I think it's fair to keep in mind McDavid had a fairly long stretch of the season of when he wasn't really on his game and his defensive side really took a dip. The team went on a horrendous losing streak and he didn't claw them out of it. I don't know how you give a Hart nod to somebody who ultimately led to his coach being fired in the same season.
Hammerlik
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2022
- 107
- 79
I do agree. I just had to include him based on the Even-Strength points he has this season. Crazy stuff.
TheUnusedCrayon
Registered User
- Apr 12, 2018
- 2,137
- 2,237
Because Gaudreau is clearly carrying that line. He's the driver of that bus. Your argument for the goaltending is valid though.
Mr Positive
Cap Crunch Incoming
- Nov 20, 2013
- 37,998
- 18,919
McDavid's defensive issues have almost always been the direct result of the team around him bad and so that requires him to gamble more for offense. But I agree, that is a compelling thing to add to the narrative against him for the Hart. I'm not even saying that jokingly. I think the narrative you can build for the Hart (or the Conn Smythe) is more important that who is actually the best player, or more valuable to his team. It also just looks better on a player on a top contender, rather than a team in the middle of the playoff picture like the Oilers
- Apr 27, 2005
- 35,282
- 33,856
Well put. He's the biggest reason Lindholm and Tkachuk are 40 goal scorers.
Consider that Lindholm and Tkachuk together without Gaudreau were 60 point players last year before Gaudreau joined their line.
People used the same argument against Gaudreau in the past because he had Sean Monahan as his center, like that was some huge benefit.
Calgary is probably battling for the last wild card spot without Gaudreau, but only because of Sutter. They have a +2 5v5 goal differential without Gaudreau on the ice, while Gaudreau's is +56.
