NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[bossram]

It's "comically bad" to judge a player defense by the amount of goals that happen while they are on the ice?



Being "One of the best Leafs forwards" at something is not an accomplishment that makes someone eligible for the Hart, sorry. But on that note, if he isn't the best, are you implying that the Leafs shutdown line coaches their goalies to be better when THEY are on the ice? You can't have it both ways.



And it still won't have been done in decades since the definition has always been from the start of the season. It's like this malarky of him having the most goals by an American "born" player- Brett Hull, who was considered American because he grew up in the U.S. and represented them internationally, is the actual record-holder for his country and Matthews likely never touches his totals unless there is a significant rule change in the next ten years. However, there has to be this narrative twisting and turning to make it seem like a bigger feat than it is. That's Toronto sports media for you in a nutshell.

1. Honestly, yes. Hockey is very random. Goalies even more so. Matthews can't make Kallgren stop the neutral zone face-off circle shot from Gudas from going in. But that counts as a GA against for Matthews. If you want to judge skater defense, look at the defensive metrics players can more directly control:

Per Natural Stattrick (min 200 5v5 minutes)
Matthews:
-2.57 scoring chances against per 60 relative to teammates (3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.81 high-danger chances against per 60 relative to teammates(3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.35 expected goal against per 60 relative to teammates (1st among Leaf forwards)

He reduces the number of scoring chances, high-danger chances, and total expected goals against his team when he's on the ice.

2. No. But the combination of offensive generation, goal-scoring ability beyond any other player this season, and above-average defensive play, is what makes him a Hart Trophy candidate.

Your comment about goaltending "coaching" makes absolutely no sense. I'm not arguing from the place of looking at raw goals against. The Leafs' high-end shutdown players (Kampf, Mikheyev, Engvall) are strong defensively because they prevent scoring chances against. Not because Mrazek/Campbell/Kallgren happened to stop the stoppable shots while they were on the ice. This is exactly the same logic I used to support Matthews being a strong defensive player. This just demonstrates that you're not really going to grasp these concepts.

3. What is the definition of "50 goals in 50 games"? It's....exactly what it says it is. It would be an impressive feat, regardless of whether it happened from the start of the season, or in the middle. I'm not from Toronto. I'm not a Leafs fan. I'm just unbiased and can look at the facts, look at the feats, and objectively say these are very impressive and certainly worthy of major Hart consideration, if not winning the trophy outright.

 

[PostBradMalone]

I guess Math is hard for some

D 71GP 50G 51A 101 PTS (1.43 PPG)
M 66GP 56G 41A 97 PTS (1.47 PPG)

1.47 > 1.43

Now granted you can’t guarantee that Matthews would have 4 points in 5 games to close that gap, but are you even confident enough that Draisaitl will out score Matthews by the time the season is done?

This is true, but :

1.47 > 1.42

And

56 > 50

If Matthews converts that rate stat into real results, you can say he's scored more points than Draisaitl. This isn't hard folks.

 

[The Podium]

If Matthews converts that rate stat into real results, you can say he's scored more points than Draisaitl. This isn't hard folks.

Let’s reconvene in 10 games than. I get why people hate the pace argument, but it’s close enough that arguing in favour of production either way is a joke. Is 5 points in 4 more games really a valid argument to suggest one player is better than the other?

 

[PostBradMalone]

1. Honestly, yes. Hockey is very random. Goalies even more so. Matthews can't make Kallgren stop the neutral zone face-off circle shot from Gudas from going in. But that counts as a GA against for Matthews. If you want to judge skater defense, look at the defensive metrics players can more directly control:

So it's luck. Okay, how is Matthews the only player from the top 20 (actually top 130) impacted by this bad luck? Is this the historical thing Leafs fans were saying up-thread?

Per Natural Stattrick (min 200 5v5 minutes)
Matthews:
-2.57 scoring chances against per 60 relative to teammates (3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.81 high-danger chances against per 60 relative to teammates(3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.35 expected goal against per 60 relative to teammates (1st among Leaf forwards)

What award do they give away to the the 3rd best Leaf at high-danger chances against?

He reduces the number of scoring chances, high-danger chances, and total expected goals against his team when he's on the ice.

Reduces them so well only three forwards from rebuilding/retooling teams are worse than him when it comes to 5 on 5 GA.

2. No. But the combination of offensive generation, goal-scoring ability beyond any other player this season, and above-average defensive play, is what makes him a Hart Trophy candidate.

"Goal-scoring ability beyond any other player" gets you one award, sure. "Offensive generation"? Err, look at the points leader for that one. We've already covered the defensive play thing- as you yourself have shown, he's a top 3 Leaf. That means absolutely shit-all in a league of 32 teams.

Your comment about goaltending "coaching" makes absolutely no sense.

The comment was made TO me! Are you serious?

I'm not arguing from the place of looking at raw goals against. The Leafs' high-end shutdown players (Kampf, Mikheyev, Engvall) are strong defensively because they prevent scoring chances against. Not because Mrazek/Campbell/Kallgren happened to stop the stoppable shots while they were on the ice. This is exactly the same logic I used to support Matthews being a strong defensive player. This just demonstrates that you're not really going to grasp these concepts.

So again, Kampf, Mikheyev, and Engvall are stronger defensively than Matthews. Great. Assuming there are 2-3 better players defensively per team, he is anywhere from 68th to 200th or so league-wide. Amazing resume.

3. What is the definition of "50 goals in 50 games"? It's....exactly what it says it is. It would be an impressive feat, regardless of whether it happened from the start of the season, or in the middle. I'm not from Toronto. I'm not a Leafs fan. I'm just unbiased and can look at the facts, look at the feats, and objectively say these are very impressive and certainly worthy of major Hart consideration, if not winning the trophy outright.

Here, I'll help you out:

The phrase "50 goals in 50 games" refers to the act of scoring 50 goals within the first 50 games of a National Hockey League (NHL) season. Scoring 50 goals in 50 (or fewer) games in the NHL is a rare achievement.

Wikipedia

So yes, it is the literal definition. Thanks for playing.

 

[Cup or Bust]

You literally said his defensive prowess is a myth (which would obviously be a reason why he wouldn't win).

But your evaluation of his defensive ability is completely wrong.

Yeah, if your criteria is purely going by total points, then McDavid should win. You said Matthews' defence was a myth, but that is not true.

If you're going to judge Matthew's defensive ability purely by GA (which is what you're doing), you're essentially claiming that Matthews should be able to control the shots his goaltenders stop. This is just asinine.

If Matthews is so good defensively why is is he only +14 on a team with +55 goal differential and McDavid is +22 on a team with only a +26 goal differential. Last Season Matthews was +19 on a team with a +39 goal differential and McDavid was +22 on a team with a +29 goal differential. It certainly isn't because of the Oilers good defense and goaltending. Matthews plays on a team that scores more and defends better so whatever McDavid is doing is getting better results then Matthews while playing on a weaker performing roster when all is said and done.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Matthews with goals in 13 of his last 15. And 5 goals 9 points in last 3 games. Hart locked

 

[bossram]

If Matthews is so good defensively why is is he only +14 on a team with +55 goal differential and McDavid is +22 on a team with only a +26 goal differential. Last Season Matthews was +19 on a team with a +39 goal differential and McDavid was +22 on a team with a +29 goal differential. It certainly isn't because of the Oilers good defense and goaltending. Matthews plays on a team that scores more and defends better so whatever McDavid is doing is getting better results then Matthews while playing on a weaker performing roster when all is said and done.

It's 2022 and people be really still be using plus/minus. Incredible. Matthews has like an 81% on-ice save percentage. His goalies aren't stopping anything. Now, if your argument is that Matthews causes his goalies to give up goals, while at the same time actually reducing the number of chances his team has against, that would be something.

Per Natural Stattrick (min 200 5v5 minutes)
Matthews:
-2.57 scoring chances against per 60 relative to teammates (3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.81 high-danger chances against per 60 relative to teammates(3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.35 expected goal against per 60 relative to teammates (1st among Leaf forwards)

 

[Cup or Bust]

It's 2022 and people be really still be using plus/minus. Incredible. Matthews has like an 81% on-ice save percentage. His goalies aren't stopping anything. Now, if your argument is that Matthews causes his goalies to give up goals, while at the same time actually reducing the number of chances his team has against, that would be something.

Per Natural Stattrick (min 200 5v5 minutes)
Matthews:
-2.57 scoring chances against per 60 relative to teammates (3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.81 high-danger chances against per 60 relative to teammates(3rd best among Leaf forwards)
-0.35 expected goal against per 60 relative to teammates (1st among Leaf forwards)

What is incredible is you need to use advanced stats that don't even measure any actual results for players and teams you watch play. I am looking at actual statistical results and putting the correct context to them which is what someone that knows anything about hockey should be able to to. Those stats you are quoting are useless. I only care about real results. The fact is McDavid gets better results while playing on a weaker team.

 

[cpsman]

I guess Math is hard for some

D 71GP 50G 51A 101 PTS (1.43 PPG)
M 66GP 56G 41A 97 PTS (1.47 PPG)

1.47 > 1.43

Now granted you can’t guarantee that Matthews would have 4 points in 5 games to close that gap, but are you even confident enough that Draisaitl will out score Matthews by the time the season is done?

So I assume you were really vocal about Ryan Nugent Hopkins not winning the Calder in 2012 then right?

 

[ToDavid]

What is incredible is you need to use advanced stats that don't even measure any actual results on players you watch play. I am looking at actual direct statistical results and putting the correct context to them which is what someone that knows anything about hockey should be able to to. Those stats you are quoting are useless. I only care about real results. The fact is McDavid gets better results while playing on a weaker team.

Are scoring chances not actual things that happen on the ice?

When a shitty Defenseman let’s a player walk into the slot and take a grade A shot, do you need to wait for the goalie to make a save or not to decide if it was a bad play? When a team allows a 3-0 and the goalie makes a diving save, so you think to yourself, “fine defensive work gentlemen.”

This isn’t an “advanced” topic for most.

 

[bossram]

So it's luck. Okay, how is Matthews the only player from the top 20 (actually top 130) impacted by this bad luck? Is this the historical thing Leafs fans were saying up-thread?



What award do they give away to the the 3rd best Leaf at high-danger chances against?



Reduces them so well only three forwards from rebuilding/retooling teams are worse than him when it comes to 5 on 5 GA.



"Goal-scoring ability beyond any other player" gets you one award, sure. "Offensive generation"? Err, look at the points leader for that one. We've already covered the defensive play thing- as you yourself have shown, he's a top 3 Leaf. That means absolutely shit-all in a league of 32 teams.



The comment was made TO me! Are you serious?



So again, Kampf, Mikheyev, and Engvall are stronger defensively than Matthews. Great. Assuming there are 2-3 better players defensively per team, he is anywhere from 68th to 200th or so league-wide. Amazing resume.



Here, I'll help you out:



Wikipedia

So yes, it is the literal definition. Thanks for playing.

I mean, you haven't really refuted any arguments. You continue to trot out raw goal against as the only defensive metric of value, despite it telling very little about a players' actual defensive contributions. You can act high and mighty, but your arguments still don't make logical sense. You poke holes at Matthew's defense (with flawed arguments), but don't consider anyone else's defending (or I haven't seen you do so). Going by your argument that Matthews could be the 68th best defensive player, McDavid would grade out as around the ~300th best defensive player in the league, but apparently, that doesn't matter for you.

I never said Matthews should win because he's the 3rd best defensive player on his team. I literally said he should win because of the combination of above-average defensive play (which I demonstrated), along with offensive generation and finishing ability.

Your only metric of offensive generation is total points. Because you're not evaluating defensive play for other players besides Matthews, I will conclude that your only actual Hart critera are total points. That's fine. People do vote that way, so it's not unreasonable. But just say that then, instead of making fallacy-driven arguments. Total points should win for you. Alright then.

And yes, you got me on the 50 in 50. A "rare achievement", per Wikipedia. So I guess we'll agree that is a rare achievement, and that this rare achievement should be considered impressive.

 

[Joe n]

That you claim he is so amazing defensively but has more TGA than any of the other top scorers lmfao

So to recap
He is 2nd in ppg and 5th in scoring, mediocre defensively and has a lot of mights and coulds

Not sure that’s a Hart but I’ve been wrong before

Its nice that you cherry pick the one stat that he has almost no control over. If you want to play this game, Matthews has been better than McDavid every year until now by that one stat.

 

[The Podium]

So I assume you were really vocal about Ryan Nugent Hopkins not winning the Calder in 2012 then right?

Lmao, what the hell kind of question is this?

First of all, no, I didn’t think much of the 2012 Calder trophy race.

RNH was certainly better than Landeskog offensively that season, but Landeskog was and has been a more complete player.

 

[Joe n]

A reason. Not the reason. And it is a myth.

The criteria is most valuable player, which McDavid is as he is clearly the best player in the NHL lmfao

By your criteria, McDavid has not been remotely close to being the best player the last 5 years.

 

[bossram]

What is incredible is you need to use advanced stats that don't even measure any actual results for players and teams you watch play. I am looking at actual statistical results and putting the correct context to them which is what someone that knows anything about hockey should be able to to. Those stats you are quoting are useless. I only care about real results. The fact is McDavid gets better results while playing on a weaker team.

What "actual statistics". You're citing literally a single one. An incredibly flawed one at that. Plus/minus is almost entirely useless.

Why is "scoring chances" a useless stat? You want to judge a players' defending, look at whether they cause scoring chances against. If you knew anything about hockey, I would think that you wouldn't hold it against a player when their goalie allows a short-handed goal against off a shot from the neutral zone. But that's a minus! Which is apparently the only thing that matters for you.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Genuinely curious if anyone can explain why scoring 50 goals in 50 games is more impressive in games 1-50 then doing it in lets say games 30-80? Like I fully understand what the official record is...but practically speaking it is doing literally the same thing over the same period of time lol

 

[The Podium]

Genuinely curious if anyone can explain why scoring 50 goals in 50 games is more impressive in games 1-50 then doing it in lets say games 30-80? Like I fully understand what the official record is...but practically speaking it is doing literally the same thing over the same period of time lol

It’s only the first 50 games because Rocket was the first to do it at a time where the season was only 50 games.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Its nice that you cherry pick the one stat that he has almost no control over. If you want to play this game, Matthews has been better than McDavid every year until now by that one stat.

How many times did he win the Hart again??? And now he’s worse??? Nice

 

[Dust]

Genuinely curious if anyone can explain why scoring 50 goals in 50 games is more impressive in games 1-50 then doing it in lets say games 30-80? Like I fully understand what the official record is...but practically speaking it is doing literally the same thing over the same period of time lol

Because it's significantly harder to do. It's a set frame of games, the other is a rolling slider of games. Both are impressive, but doing it in the first 50 is much more difficult.

 

[kevsh]

We're just mostly confused that simple concepts like 101 > 97 are and remain a collective mystery to the Leafs fans in this thread.

And if Matthews was leading Draisaitl 101-97 in 5 less games and had was putting up 1.47 PPG to Leon's 1.42, I think both sides would be taking opposite sides in the argument.

Btw would I be wrong to point out Matthews is outscoring Draisaitl by 6 goals in, again, 5 less games and I don't think anyone can argue goals > assists in determining anything comparative outside pass ability.

Leon's a fantastic player, top 3 forwards in the game, and should be on the Hart shortlist. But Matthews has had the most impressive season of any NHL forward, comparing all relevant stats including his play without the puck.

 

[Cup or Bust]

Are scoring chances not actual things that happen on the ice?

When a shitty Defenseman let’s a player walk into the slot and take a grade A shot, do you need to wait for the goalie to make a save or not to decide if it was a bad play? When a team allows a 3-0 and the goalie makes a diving save, so you think to yourself, “fine defensive work gentlemen.”

This isn’t an “advanced” topic for most.

Scoring chances happen indeed but they are not a statistical result that decides the game and are subjective. The other Leaf players play with the same goaltending and defense game after game as Matthews does. What I do know is that the Leafs have had a better overall roster, better defense core, better goaltending, better goal differential, score more goals, allow less goals and yet the goal differential with Matthews on the ice is worse then McDavid. That shows that in spite of being on a weaker team McDavid is still more dominant when he is on the ice.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

With Matthews in 7th in scoring, 15 points back and out of the running who do you guys have as the 3 nominations?

Mcdavid
Josi
shesterkin
Huberdeau
Gaudreau

Prob my top 5, still a lot of games left to decide tho

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Because it's significantly harder to do. It's a set frame of games, the other is a rolling slider of games. Both are impressive, but doing it in the first 50 is much more difficult.

How is it much more difficult though? It is literally doing the exact same thing. Scoring typically goes down as a season progresses as well and is higher early in the season. There is historical significance behind 50 in the first 50 games of a season...but the actual act is the same over any 50 game period in one season.

 

[Cup or Bust]

What "actual statistics". You're citing literally a single one. An incredibly flawed one at that. Plus/minus is almost entirely useless.

Why is "scoring chances" a useless stat? You want to judge a players' defending, look at whether they cause scoring chances against. If you knew anything about hockey, I would think that you wouldn't hold it against a player when their goalie allows a short-handed goal against off a shot from the neutral zone. But that's a minus! Which is apparently the only thing that matters for you.

How is plus minus flawed? Because you cannot use it in proper context? If a team scores 400 goals and allows 100 and players are +100, then is it flawed. Similar if a team scores 100 goals and gives up 400 and a guy is minus 100, then it is flawed. It is absolutely not flawed in the context I am discussing. Yes, it doesn't explain every play that happened while a player is on the ice but neither does quoting advanced stats. All stats are flawed without context. Unless you are trying to claim Matthews just has worse luck then other Leafs players while on the ice with the same defense and goaltending as they play with. Almost all goals scored on the ice can be impacted by more then one player so advanced stats are not set in stone facts. In real world results McDavid is better.

 

[Dust]

How is it much more difficult though? It is literally doing the exact same thing. Scoring typically goes down as a season progresses as well and is higher early in the season. There is historical significance behind 50 in the first 50 games of a season...but the actual act is the same over any 50 game period in one season.

Because your window of opportunity closes. If you have a terrible start in your first 5 or 10 games, the dream is over. Doing it over any 50 game stretch means it can start at any point in time. It's a sliding window, it could start at game 3, game 13, game 25, it's just a 50 game stretch where a player is the hottest. The fact that someone can accomplish it is impressive in it's own right, but it is most definitely easier.

I remember there being a similar statistic last year about McDavid. It's still something that almost nobody can do, but it's not the same at all.