NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[5 14 6 1]

Mcdavid leads the league in scoring despite a career low in team on-ice sh% at 5v5 (8.15%) this season, and has still registered a point on an NHL leading 42.5% of the Oilers goals this year.

In the past 3 seasons McDavids on ice SH% has been 10.56%, 11.17% and 11.17%.

For reference Matthews team on ice sh% @5v5 this year is 11.52% and Gaudreau is @ 13.30%.

Even in a heavily regressed year McDavid is still the most dominant and valuable player in the league.

If you adjusted the sh% to a still regressed 10% he would be blowing the scoring race out the water by 15+ points

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Mcdavid leads the league in scoring despite a career low in team on-ice sh% at 5v5 (8.15%) this season, and has still registered a point on an NHL leading 42.5% of the Oilers goals this year.

In the past 3 seasons McDavids on ice SH% has been 10.56%, 11.17% and 11.17%.

For reference Matthews team on ice sh% @5v5 this year is 11.52% and Gaudreau is @ 13.30%.

Even in a heavily regressed year McDavid is still the most dominant and valuable player in the league.

If you adjusted the sh% to a still regressed 10% he would be blowing the scoring race out the water by 15+ points

But Matthews is Bob Gainey and might also hit 100 goals bro

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Scoring chances happen indeed but they are not a statistical result that decides the game and are subjective. The other Leaf players play with the same goaltending and defense game after game as Matthews does. What I do know is that the Leafs have had a better overall roster, better defense core, better goaltending, better goal differential, score more goals, allow less goals and yet the goal differential with Matthews on the ice is worse then McDavid. That shows that in spite of being on a weaker team McDavid is still more dominant when he is on the ice.

No one involved in the world of hockey believes that McDavid and Draisaitl are better than Matthews defensively. Not even your own team's coach. In fact, him probably least of all.

I watch Edmonton more than any team outside of my own because I appreciate the talent, and I've seen it with my own eyes. Both players cheat for offence and lack purpose when defending against a cycle. I don't think they're incapable of it, they just don't seem engaged when their team is defending.

+/- as a stat has been widely descredited as the dominant defensive metric for over a decade now... it's not just the evil Leafs fans and media trying to boost their guy. All a defensive player can do is limit high danger scoring opportunities and second chances, the rest is on the goalie. Stats and the eye test say that Matthews is one of the best forwards in the league in this regard.

 

[Dust]

No one involved in the world of hockey believes that McDavid and Draisaitl are better than Matthews defensively. Not even your own team's coach. In fact, him probably least of all.

I watch Edmonton more than any team outside of my own because I appreciate the talent, and I've seen it with my own eyes. Both players cheat for offence and lack purpose when defending against a cycle. I don't think they're incapable of it, they just don't seem engaged when their team is defending.

+/- as a stat has been widely descredited as the dominant defensive metric for over a decade now... it's not just the evil Leafs fans and media trying to boost their guy. All a defensive player can do is limit high danger scoring opportunities and second chances, the rest is on the goalie. Stats and the eye test say that Matthews is one of the best forwards in the league in this regard.

I think most people would agree that Matthews is better defensively. I just think that the narrative that Connor and Leon are awful, and Auston is amazing, is a little overblown. Meet it somewhere in the middle and I think you have the answer. I don't think the gap between their defensive play is nearly as big as some would believe it to be.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

I think most people would agree that Matthews is better defensively. I just think that the narrative that Connor and Leon are awful, and Auston is amazing, is a little overblown. Meet it somewhere in the middle and I think you have the answer. I don't think the gap between their defensive play is nearly as big as some would believe it to be.

Worlds most reasonable man

 

[5 14 6 1]

No one involved in the world of hockey believes that McDavid and Draisaitl are better than Matthews defensively. Not even your own team's coach. In fact, him probably least of all.

I watch Edmonton more than any team outside of my own because I appreciate the talent, and I've seen it with my own eyes. Both players cheat for offence and lack purpose when defending against a cycle. I don't think they're incapable of it, they just don't seem engaged when their team is defending.

+/- as a stat has been widely descredited as the dominant defensive metric for over a decade now... it's not just the evil Leafs fans and media trying to boost their guy. All a defensive player can do is limit high danger scoring opportunities and second chances, the rest is on the goalie. Stats and the eye test say that Matthews is one of the best forwards in the league in this regard.

Huh. Curious timing to talk out of your ___



See the question at 5 minutes

 

[Cup or Bust]

No one involved in the world of hockey believes that McDavid and Draisaitl are better than Matthews defensively. Not even your own team's coach. In fact, him probably least of all.

I watch Edmonton more than any team outside of my own because I appreciate the talent, and I've seen it with my own eyes. Both players cheat for offence and lack purpose when defending against a cycle. I don't think they're incapable of it, they just don't seem engaged when their team is defending.

+/- as a stat has been widely descredited as the dominant defensive metric for over a decade now... it's not just the evil Leafs fans and media trying to boost their guy. All a defensive player can do is limit high danger scoring opportunities and second chances, the rest is on the goalie. Stats and the eye test say that Matthews is one of the best forwards in the league in this regard.

I never said it was a dominant stat but it is a results based stat. I also never said McDavid was better defensively then Matthews. I said he gets better results on a worse team while on the ice, That is a fact. You can make up all the excuses you want if it makes you feel better. I was debating the so called separation defensively people claim Matthews has over other players in the league and the actual results do not back it up. If Toronto had a weak roster, weak defense core, weak goaltending on a consistent basis it would make sense. When they have a +50 goal differential and a guy is only +14 and 7th on the team in plus minus while another guy is getting better results on a weaker team over multiple seasons then you have to think it is more then just luck. That does not mean I think McDavid is better defensively, It just means it should not be a determining factor for deciding an award.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Mcdavid leads the league in scoring despite a career low in team on-ice sh% at 5v5 (8.15%) this season, and has still registered a point on an NHL leading 42.5% of the Oilers goals this year.

In the past 3 seasons McDavids on ice SH% has been 10.56%, 11.17% and 11.17%.

For reference Matthews team on ice sh% @5v5 this year is 11.52% and Gaudreau is @ 13.30%.

Even in a heavily regressed year McDavid is still the most dominant and valuable player in the league.

If you adjusted the sh% to a still regressed 10% he would be blowing the scoring race out the water by 15+ points

Whoa whoa whoa... cool it with your whacky advanced stats buddy. Those are strictly forbidden when discussing player impact on hfboards. Or that just Matthews? Tough to keep up with the goalposts moving so often.

 

[super6646]

He has literally the worst on ice save % in the league while being on of the best defensive player in the league by every metric.



View attachment 528445

The fact that you’re even question his defense means you aren’t paying attention.

How the f*** can someone have a 17OIS% and still have a PDO below 1 lmao

every metric but total goals against, in which he is bottom 5 of all forwards lmfao

Why can’t he just be the games best goal scorer? You people are never satisfied unless this man is deified by everybody

Matthews cannot save shots. Goaltending can be very fluky like that.

 

[super6646]

Mcdavid leads the league in scoring despite a career low in team on-ice sh% at 5v5 (8.15%) this season, and has still registered a point on an NHL leading 42.5% of the Oilers goals this year.

In the past 3 seasons McDavids on ice SH% has been 10.56%, 11.17% and 11.17%.

For reference Matthews team on ice sh% @5v5 this year is 11.52% and Gaudreau is @ 13.30%.

Even in a heavily regressed year McDavid is still the most dominant and valuable player in the league.

If you adjusted the sh% to a still regressed 10% he would be blowing the scoring race out the water by 15+ points

Fair enough, but he does get the benefit of a shitload of PP time. Gaudreau only has 21 powerplay points to Mcdavid's 39 as an example.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Huh. Curious timing to talk out of your ___



See the question at 5 minutes

I didn't hear Matthews' name in the question, nor the answer. I said your coach wouldn't consider McDavid or Draisaitl to be better defensively than Matthews. That has nothing to do with him making an encouraging statement about McDavid's defensive efforts over a stretch of games. By the way... I watched the Oilers last 2 games and if that is considered leading the team with his defence then there's quite the low bar in Edmonton. Could be part of the problem.

 

[Llamamoto]

If we're going by xGA rather than GA to justify Matthews' defensive woes, are we not going to take into account McDavid's historically low OISH% or the discrepancy between his xGF and actual GF?

The inconsistency we're seeing here to bring down McDavid is hilarious. He's the leading point scorer in the NHL and is playing a great two-way game, dragging a mediocre team to the playoffs. That's the definition of a Hart winner.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

How the f*** can someone have a 17OIS% and still have a PDO below 1 lmao

Matthews cannot save shots. Goaltending can be very fluky like that.

Goaltending would be a factor but it wouldn’t make you bottom 5 worst lmfao they wouldn’t even be in a playoff spot if it was that bad

 

[TIGERCOOL]

If we're going by xGA rather than GA to justify Matthews' defensive woes, are we not going to take into account McDavid's historically low OISH% or the discrepancy between his xGF and actual GF?

The inconsistency we're seeing here to bring down McDavid is hilarious. He's the leading point scorer in the NHL and is playing a great two-way game, dragging a mediocre team to the playoffs. That's the definition of a Hart winner.

I wasn't aware of McDavid's low OISH% but I'd say it's an interesting statistic that warrants discussion. The only people I see openly discrediting advanced metrics in this thread are Oilers fans.

 

[5 14 6 1]

I didn't hear Matthews' name in the question, nor the answer. I said your coach wouldn't consider McDavid or Draisaitl to be better defensively than Matthews. That has nothing to do with him making an encouraging statement about McDavid's defensive efforts over a stretch of games. By the way... I watched the Oilers last 2 games and if that is considered leading the team with his defence then there's quite the low bar in Edmonton. Could be part of the problem.

The Oilers are one of the best teams in the league since Woodcroft took over lol. Win a round and then we can chat about "problems" boss man

 

[Llamamoto]

I wasn't aware of McDavid's low OISH% but I'd say it's an interesting statistic that warrants discussion. The only people I see openly discrediting advanced metrics in this thread are Oilers fans.

Leafs fans are pointing to Matthews' poor on-ice goaltending to justify his high GA rates, which is justified.

What Oilers fans is asking is, if we're going to value expected goals over actual results, shouldn't we take into account the quality of goaltending/poor finishing that McDavid's lines have been subject to?

 

[5 14 6 1]

Fair enough, but he does get the benefit of a shitload of PP time. Gaudreau only has 21 powerplay points to Mcdavid's 39 as an example.

I don't think we should punish players for being good at scoring in any situation.

I am not downplaying Matthews or Gaudreau's seasons, both are excellent players who deserve to be in the conversation. The point of the post was despite a heavy statisticl SH% regression (30%) at 5v5 McDavid is still handily leading the league in scoring and team contribution.

 

[super6646]

I don't think we should punish players for being good at scoring in any situation.

I am not downplaying Matthews or Gaudreau's seasons, both are excellent players who deserve to be in the conversation. The point of the post was despite a heavy statisticl SH% regression (30%) at 5v5 McDavid is still handily leading the league in scoring and team contribution.

Oh I agree 100%. Just pointing out that benefit.

Goaltending would be a factor but it wouldn’t make you bottom 5 worst lmfao they wouldn’t even be in a playoff spot if it was that bad

Of course it can. Is Gaudreau an amazing 2-way player all of a sudden because he's a +53?

86% of shots are being saved when Matthews plays 5 on 5. That is horrendous luck. And yes, that SV% would lead to a lot of GA no matter how good Matthews is defensively.

Looking at his possession metrics though (+8.6CFR%), he has to be very good defensively at least to have those numbers.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I think most people would agree that Matthews is better defensively. I just think that the narrative that Connor and Leon are awful, and Auston is amazing, is a little overblown. Meet it somewhere in the middle and I think you have the answer. I don't think the gap between their defensive play is nearly as big as some would believe it to be.

Matthews is awesome at defense this year.

McDavid is definitely above average unless he isn't giving any shits at it which people can pull up clips etc.

Draisaitl at even strength and it could be the fact he plays the most out of any forward this year is legit below average.
Ye he PKs etc but I don't know how he just decides to skip defense for 10 games straight.

I try to watch as much hockey of great players but draisaitl defensively at times is special.

I expect McDavid to play a full two way game during the playoffs and show that he does play defense but as a fan of hockey both the Edmonton superstars make me shake there head when in the defensive zone.

 

[bossram]

How is plus minus flawed? Because you cannot use it in proper context? If a team scores 400 goals and allows 100 and players are +100, then is it flawed. Similar if a team scores 100 goals and gives up 400 and a guy is minus 100, then it is flawed. It is absolutely not flawed in the context I am discussing. Yes, it doesn't explain every play that happened while a player is on the ice but neither does quoting advanced stats. All stats are flawed without context. Unless you are trying to claim Matthews just has worse luck then other Leafs players while on the ice with the same defense and goaltending as they play with. Almost all goals scored on the ice can be impacted by more then one player so advanced stats are not set in stone facts. In real world results McDavid is better.

Yes, he does have worse luck. That is exactly what I am saying. He is not the proximate cause of most of the goals against, yet if you only look at plus/minus, you would think he is.

You're using plus/minus to assign credit/blame on a player's defensive play. Except plus/minus does not accurately reflect what a player does defensively (or offensively). The logic of being bad defensively is thus: poor defensive ability, leads to greater chances against, which leads to greater goals against, which leads to worse plus/minus.

You're right, each point in that chain is affected by other factors. So why are you looking at the endpoint in the chain, which is affected by highest degree of factors external to the individual player? Yes, Matthews has a lot of goals against, which leads to a worse plus/minus. The cause of that, on the part of Matthews, would be because he has bad defensive habits which cause more scoring chances against. Yet that is the opposite of what is happening with Matthews on the ice. His team concedes fewer scoring chances. So if he's conceding fewer chances, why are more goals going in against him? I would say because the goaltending has been sub-par. So yes, I would conclude he has been on the unlucky end of disastrous goaltending, which the Leafs have received for the better part of 5 months.

 

[5 14 6 1]

Yes, he does have worse luck. That is exactly what I am saying. He is not the proximate cause of most of the goals against, yet if you only look at plus/minus, you would think he is.

You're using plus/minus to assign credit/blame on a player's defensive play. Except plus/minus does not accurately reflect what a player does defensively (or offensively). The logic of being bad defensively is thus: poor defensive ability, leads to greater chances against, which leads to greater goals against, which leads to worse plus/minus.

You're right, each point in that chain is affected by other factors. So why are you looking at the endpoint in the chain, which is affected by highest degree of factors external to the individual player? Yes, Matthews has a lot of goals against, which leads to a worse plus/minus. The cause of that, if he were bad defensively, would be because he concedes more scoring chances against. Yet that is the opposite of what is happening with Matthews on the ice. His team concedes fewer scoring chances. So if he's conceding fewer chances, why are more goals going in against him? I would say because the goaltending has been sub-par. So yes, I would conclude he has been on the unlucky end of disastrous goaltending, which the Leafs have received for the better part of 5 months.

The Oilers awful goaltending has been used to discredit McDavid and Draisaitl's defensive games for multiple seasons now. Welcome to the party.

 

[bossram]

The Oilers awful goaltending has been used to discredit McDavid and Draisaitl's defensive games for multiple seasons now. Welcome to the party.

You can point elsewhere for that. I've never judged McDavid/Draisaitl's defensive game on the basis of how many shots their goalies stop.

Honestly, McDavid has been solid defensively this season. He's just about breakeven in terms of chances against relative to team. Given he creates so much offensively, that's a fantastic trade-off. Matthews has been better defensively. I would put them 1-2 in Hart voting.

You haven't refuted anything I've said.

 

[5 14 6 1]

You can point elsewhere for that. I've never judged McDavid/Draisaitl's defensive game on the basis of how many shots their goalies stop.

Honestly, McDavid has been solid defensively this season. He's just about breakeven in terms of chances against relative to team. Given he creates so much offensively, that's a fantastic trade-off. Matthews has been better defensively. I would put them 1-2 in Hart voting.

You haven't refuted anything I've said.

I wasn't refuting anything, just stating that we've been dealing with the same issue for years lol

 

[Zybalto]

Leafs fans are pointing to Matthews' poor on-ice goaltending to justify his high GA rates, which is justified.

What Oilers fans is asking is, if we're going to value expected goals over actual results, shouldn't we take into account the quality of goaltending/poor finishing that McDavid's lines have been subject to?

The two previous seasons:

5v5:

McDavid:
Shots against/60: 32.18
xGA/60: 2.64
GA/60: 3.19

Matthews:
Shots against/60: 27.38
xGA/60: 2.19
GA/60: 2.16

This season:

McDavid:
Shots against/60: 30
xGA/60: 2.43
GA/60: 2.33

Matthews:
Shots against/60: 26.5
xGA/60: 2.03
GA/60: 3.23

Just judging McDavid on his previous seasons would give you a false sense of what he was as well. Goaltending really messes up trying to evaluate players with goals against which is why almost no one serious does it.

I think shots against is probably the best metric to use generally as it takes out the spooky nature of xGA and is tracks close enough to xGA to satisfy those that take the more modern approach.

 

[Byron Bitz]

With Matthews in 7th in scoring, 15 points back and out of the running who do you guys have as the 3 nominations?

Matthews is out of the running but the betting odds have him as the favourite? How does that work?