NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[authentic]

Matthews every other defensive stat is elite. To add he had a solid goals against the last 2 years. So him being bad this year is the outlier. Matthews is definitely great on defense. Anybody making an argument otherwise is cherry picking stats. If you look at all the numbers and the eye test he comes out as great.

Huberdeau should not be above McDavid. The latter can actually play defense. Huberdeau is atrocious. Matthews and McDavid are my front runners.

McDavid/Matthews
Josi
Huberdeau

100%. Matthews for my money is the most dominant player in the game right now, but I would have no problem with McDavid winning it at the rate he's going. He's winning games for his team lately down this late season stretch.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

100%. Matthews for my money is the most dominant player in the game right now, but I would have no problem with McDavid winning it at the rate he's going. He's winning games for his team lately down this late season stretch.

I agree Matthews goal scoring and two way play makes up the point gap. McDavid is pretty good this year defensivly tho. It's very close this year. I think Austin being apart of a better team. Who's higher in the standings. The small narrative there should put him above. Sucks but that's apart of the award voting unless I'm mistaken. That's the only reason Huberdeau should even be top 3ish. He's the best offensive player on the 2nd best team. Still inferior to McDavid and Drai this year alone. But the narrative puts him higher then one.

 

[duul]

No that's my point, Matthews has better advanced stats than McDavid and always has. He takes the puck away far more, gives it away less, blocks as many shots as McDavid and Draisaitl combined and has a higher faceoff%.

Every previous season that Matthews had a normal on ice sv% (the past two seasons it was .922 and .919) he had better goals against numbers than McDavid.

I'm not really trying to pump up my guy here either, these are just basic facts that Matthews has a wildly unsustainable and unlucky on ice sv% this season, his line dominates play on the ice like very few lines I've ever seen but one of our goalies seems to let in a really easy shot pretty regularly. Also the month of November was the only time the Leafs had a sv% above .900, Campbell had something like like around .950.

McDavid is a great two-way player just to be clear and he's better than Matthews offensively in general, this season however there is a great case for Matthews being that close in points per game while scoring goals at the rate he has been and dominating in scoring chances for and against while he's on the ice.

Do you mind sharing a place I can view these statistics?

 

[GOilers88]

I'd like to see Josi win it because how f***in awesome would that be. I think all of Gaudreau, Matthews, McDavid, Shesterkin all have a legit case as well. Definitely not an easy vote this year.

 

[authentic]

I agree Matthews goal scoring and two way play makes up the point gap. McDavid is pretty good this year defensivly tho. It's very close this year. I think Austin being apart of a better team. Who's higher in the standings. The small narrative there should put him above. Sucks but that's apart of the award voting unless I'm mistaken. That's the only reason Huberdeau should even be top 3ish. He's the best offensive player on the 2nd best team. Still inferior to McDavid and Drai this year alone. But the narrative puts him higher then one.

The Hart usually goes to the forward who had the best season, except Taylor Hall a while back. Matthews is having the best season I think with McDavid a very close 2nd. Huberdeau isn't even the best player on his own team but he has played more games than Barkov. I think Gaudreau should be nominated before Huberdeau personally.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

The Hart usually goes to the forward who had the best season, except Taylor Hall a while back. Matthews is having the best season I think with McDavid a very close 2nd. Huberdeau isn't even the best player on his own team but he has played more games than Barkov. I think Gaudreau should be nominated before Huberdeau personally.

Good point. But Huberdeau feels like the better bet cause he has been underrated for too long. Gaudreau is better I agree.

 

[radkison]

I think a pretty simple metric, and probably the one most people should consider instead of using 'narratives' is to look at how many points are removed from a team when they lose a player, or what % of their teams offence have they been a part of. Hart is in 99% of cases given to this player.

Let's do some quick %'s.

Florida - 294 goals, Huberdeau 102 points. 34.7%
Calgary - 241 goals, Gaudreau 95 points, 39.4%
Toronto - 270 goals, Matthews 95 points, 35.1%
Edmonton - 251 goals, McDavid 106 points, 42.2%
Edmonton - 251 goals, Draisaitl 101 points, 40.2%

The pair from Edmonton BOTH provide the two highest 'in on' points % relative to their teams goals compared to anyone else in the league. These two players, while playing on the same team, ON DIFFERENT LINES 5ON5, are #1 and #2 in the world for 'importance' in terms of providing goals to their team.

Simply put, nobody else in the league is more important to putting up goals in the entire league than McDavid, and it's not that close. Draisaitl and Gaudreau is a bit behind, and the others are waaaay behind.

Remove Huberdeau from Florida entirely and they're still going to be a stanley cup contender.

Remove McDavid from Edmonton and they aren't coming close to making the playoffs.

At this point for forwards, it has to be between McDavid and Gaudreau with McDavid holding a significant edge. He also has the 'it' factor that leads every teams top players shadowing him and seeing it as the biggest challenge possible to shut him down. Gaudreau doesn't have this level of competition.

As for defence and goalies, it is a lot harder to gauge their value. The only way a defenceman is winning the Hart is if they're leading that group in scoring. Right now that's Josi by a healthy margin.

Let's say for forwards we can choose two of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Gaudreau. Draisaitl plays on Edmonton but even though he has contributed to a higher % of offence, let's remove him. Then take Josi.

McDavid
Gaudreau
Josi

As your finalists. The goalie SV% race is too close to have one of them involved this year. Two months ago Shesterkin was way ahead and could've secured a spot in the top 3 voting. He's fallen back down to earth. I think a goalie has to be head and shoulders above his peers in net to be considered for this, which he currently isn't.

So who's the most valuable player in the world?

Well, it's McDavid. Gaudreau is having a great year especially 5 on 5, but there's no way someone who is 11 points back ends up winning it over McDavid, unless he closes the gap in the final games. As it stands now, there's no chance.

Josi is compelling. He's a lock for the Norris now, and like McDavid, his team doesn't make the playoffs without him. Hell, they might still miss WITH him. I wonder if their team is good enough for him to be considered. We had this argument at times in McDavid's career that you can't give MVP to someone whose team isn't even good. Well...I don't know.

McDavid is the obvious choice, but that becomes boring for people who don't want to see the same guy win every year. I think it would be downright evil to vote against someone just because he's already won it a few times. This isn't some participation award league. Give it to the literal MOST VALUABLE PLAYER -- the guy who leads the league in points while being keyed in on harder than anyone else.

If advanced stats guys want to chime in, go ahead. I already know McDavid has Selke level GA/60 while playing in front of two goalies with sub 900 SV% this year -- the worst goaltending tandem in the entire league.

Wall of text

 

[authentic]

Do you mind sharing a place I can view these statistics?

hockeyreference.com type in their name then scroll down to NHL possession metrics and NHL rate metrics.

McDavid has a career avg. .894 on ice save% while Matthews has an average of .902

This season McDavid has a career high there with ,908 and Matthews with .865, which is absurdly low lol

Their possession metrics are actually really close in chances/shots for and against while they're on the ice (McDavid spends about a minute extra on the powerplay per game so he sort of has a bit of an advantage there, but Matthews has the linemate advantage), but this is the first season Matthews has been on the ice for more goals against than McDavid, and before that it really wasn't close as you'll be able to see (let me know if you have trouble finding it).

But a few other stats I'll throw in.

Matthews (65gp) 78 takeaways 44 giveaways 53 blocked shots 56.5 faceoff%

McDavid (70gp) 51 takeaways 44 giveaways 23 blocked shots 54.9 faceoff%

 

[duul]

hockeyreference.com type in their name then scroll down to NHL possession metrics and NHL rate metrics.

McDavid has a career avg. .894 on ice save% while Matthews has an average of .902

This season McDavid has a career high there with ,908 and Matthews with .865, which is absurdly low lol

Their possession metrics are actually really close in chances/shots for and against while they're on the ice (McDavid spends about a minute extra on the powerplay per game so he sort of has a bit of an advantage there, but Matthews has the linemate advantage), but this is the first season Matthews has been on the ice for more goals against than McDavid, and before that it really wasn't close as you'll be able to see (let me know if you have trouble finding it).

But a few other stats I'll throw in.

Matthews (65gp) 78 takeaways 44 giveaways 53 blocked shots 56.5 faceoff%

McDavid (70gp) 51 takeaways 44 giveaways 23 blocked shots 54.9 faceoff%

Thanks a lot.

Are you able to determine how McDavid and Matthews have had similar on ice save %'s throughout their careers, with McDavid having significantly worse linemates, defence, and goaltending throughout? I'm sure there is data on this that I personally can't find & compile. And maybe I'm wrong in assuming he has had worse goaltending, linemates, and defence overall.

As for the few other stats you've thrown in, I would imagine those are statistics used in something like the Selke trophy consideration, not the Hart.

 

[authentic]

Thanks a lot.

Are you able to determine how McDavid and Matthews have had similar on ice save %'s throughout their careers, with McDavid having significantly worse linemates, defence, and goaltending throughout? I'm sure there is data on this that I personally can't find & compile. And maybe I'm wrong in assuming he has had worse goaltending, linemates, and defence overall.

As for the few other stats you've thrown in, I would imagine those are statistics used in something like the Selke trophy consideration, not the Hart.

Well Matthews isn't going to win a Selke nor should he, but I think they are worth bringing to a discussion of who's been better overall when their points per game 1.52 > 1.44 for McDavid are this close with Matthews scoring a goal nearly every single game.

This is what's funny about those on ice save%'s, Matthews two best seasons were in his rookie seasons where he was obviously just learning the NHL game and was also not bad defensively for a rookie who scored at an elite rate, but he was paired with a combination of Hyman/Brown/Nylander in his first two seasons and his on ice save%'s were .920 and .927 despite giving up a lot more shots and chances against the other way.

I only recently got into any of these stats btw as other posters have been posting them but they're interesting to look at.

 

[McShogun99]

The media has already practically announced that Matthews is winning the Hart. He could shut it down for the rest of the season and Mcdavid and Huberdeau could both get over 130 points and still lose the Hart to him.

 

[Duffalufagus]

I think a pretty simple metric, and probably the one most people should consider instead of using 'narratives' is to look at how many points are removed from a team when they lose a player, or what % of their teams offence have they been a part of. Hart is in 99% of cases given to this player.

Let's do some quick %'s.

Florida - 294 goals, Huberdeau 102 points. 34.7%
Calgary - 241 goals, Gaudreau 95 points, 39.4%
Toronto - 270 goals, Matthews 95 points, 35.1%
Edmonton - 251 goals, McDavid 106 points, 42.2%
Edmonton - 251 goals, Draisaitl 101 points, 40.2%

The pair from Edmonton BOTH provide the two highest 'in on' points % relative to their teams goals compared to anyone else in the league. These two players, while playing on the same team, ON DIFFERENT LINES 5ON5, are #1 and #2 in the world for 'importance' in terms of providing goals to their team.

Simply put, nobody else in the league is more important to putting up goals in the entire league than McDavid, and it's not that close. Draisaitl and Gaudreau is a bit behind, and the others are waaaay behind.

Remove Huberdeau from Florida entirely and they're still going to be a stanley cup contender.

Remove McDavid from Edmonton and they aren't coming close to making the playoffs.

At this point for forwards, it has to be between McDavid and Gaudreau with McDavid holding a significant edge. He also has the 'it' factor that leads every teams top players shadowing him and seeing it as the biggest challenge possible to shut him down. Gaudreau doesn't have this level of competition.

As for defence and goalies, it is a lot harder to gauge their value. The only way a defenceman is winning the Hart is if they're leading that group in scoring. Right now that's Josi by a healthy margin.

Let's say for forwards we can choose two of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Gaudreau. Draisaitl plays on Edmonton but even though he has contributed to a higher % of offence, let's remove him. Then take Josi.

McDavid
Gaudreau
Josi

As your finalists. The goalie SV% race is too close to have one of them involved this year. Two months ago Shesterkin was way ahead and could've secured a spot in the top 3 voting. He's fallen back down to earth. I think a goalie has to be head and shoulders above his peers in net to be considered for this, which he currently isn't.

So who's the most valuable player in the world?

Well, it's McDavid. Gaudreau is having a great year especially 5 on 5, but there's no way someone who is 11 points back ends up winning it over McDavid, unless he closes the gap in the final games. As it stands now, there's no chance.

Josi is compelling. He's a lock for the Norris now, and like McDavid, his team doesn't make the playoffs without him. Hell, they might still miss WITH him. I wonder if their team is good enough for him to be considered. We had this argument at times in McDavid's career that you can't give MVP to someone whose team isn't even good. Well...I don't know.

McDavid is the obvious choice, but that becomes boring for people who don't want to see the same guy win every year. I think it would be downright evil to vote against someone just because he's already won it a few times. This isn't some participation award league. Give it to the literal MOST VALUABLE PLAYER -- the guy who leads the league in points while being keyed in on harder than anyone else.

If advanced stats guys want to chime in, go ahead. I already know McDavid has Selke level GA/60 while playing in front of two goalies with sub 900 SV% this year -- the worst goaltending tandem in the entire league.

40% of his points are on the PP. same with Leon. So, while they don’t play on the same line, almost half their scoring comes when they play together with the other team a man down. And neither is even in same ballpark as Gaudreau 5v5.

It’s not the runaway case you think it is.

 

[Duffalufagus]

Matthews every other defensive stat is elite. To add he had a solid goals against the last 2 years. So him having a bad goals against this year is the outlier and still the only stat that's says he's not great on defense.
Matthews is definitely great on defense. Anybody making an argument otherwise is cherry picking stats. If you look at all the numbers and the eye test he comes out as great.

Huberdeau should not be above McDavid. The latter can actually play defense. Huberdeau is atrocious. Matthews and McDavid are my front runners.

McDavid/Matthews
Josi
Huberdeau

There is no compelling case for Huberdeau over Gaudreau.

 

[FinlandPanther]

There is no compelling case for Huberdeau over Gaudreau.

There actually is but you do you.

 

[Duffalufagus]

There actually is but you do you.

Make the case.

 

[Nineteen67]

Huberdeau would get my vote. Admittedly, I don’t watch the western Canadian teams as much the rest of the league, but he’s been great this year.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Make the case.

Oh but you get to just say there’s no case. Cute LOL. I’m not doing your work for you.

 

[Duffalufagus]

Oh but you get to just say there’s no case. Cute LOL. I’m not doing your work for you.

So, you can’t. You doing the work for me? Lmao. It is YOU making the claim. This place is adorable sometimes.

 

[FinlandPanther]

So, you can’t. You doing the work for me? Lmao. It is YOU making the claim. This place is adorable sometimes.

You made a claim he didn’t deserve it. Now you’re just making a fool of yourself.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

There is no compelling case for Huberdeau over Gaudreau.

I agree. I had to think about it for a second. Gaudreau is better but Huberdeau has the better narrative imo.

 

[wintersej]

The only answers for this season are Matthews or Shesty and you could convince me of either one on a game to game basis. Shesty has been mortal the last few weeks, so leaning Matthews, but its neck and neck.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

The only answers for this season are Matthews or Shesty and you could convince me of either one on a game to game basis. Shesty has been mortal the last few weeks, so leaning Matthews, but its neck and neck.

A few weeks ago, the top 3 Hart nominees would have probably been Shesty, Matthews, and McDavid (with Gaudreau right on the outside looking in).

Goalies basically need to be near perfect most years to win the Hart, and Shesty had a less than stellar March, which probably is enough to knock him out of the race. The top 3 now are probably Matthews, McDavid and Gaudreau.

 

[Nicko999]

I think a pretty simple metric, and probably the one most people should consider instead of using 'narratives' is to look at how many points are removed from a team when they lose a player, or what % of their teams offence have they been a part of. Hart is in 99% of cases given to this player.

Let's do some quick %'s.

Florida - 294 goals, Huberdeau 102 points. 34.7%
Calgary - 241 goals, Gaudreau 95 points, 39.4%
Toronto - 270 goals, Matthews 95 points, 35.1%
Edmonton - 251 goals, McDavid 106 points, 42.2%
Edmonton - 251 goals, Draisaitl 101 points, 40.2%

The pair from Edmonton BOTH provide the two highest 'in on' points % relative to their teams goals compared to anyone else in the league. These two players, while playing on the same team, ON DIFFERENT LINES 5ON5, are #1 and #2 in the world for 'importance' in terms of providing goals to their team.

Simply put, nobody else in the league is more important to putting up goals in the entire league than McDavid, and it's not that close. Draisaitl and Gaudreau is a bit behind, and the others are waaaay behind.

Remove Huberdeau from Florida entirely and they're still going to be a stanley cup contender.

Remove McDavid from Edmonton and they aren't coming close to making the playoffs.

At this point for forwards, it has to be between McDavid and Gaudreau with McDavid holding a significant edge. He also has the 'it' factor that leads every teams top players shadowing him and seeing it as the biggest challenge possible to shut him down. Gaudreau doesn't have this level of competition.

As for defence and goalies, it is a lot harder to gauge their value. The only way a defenceman is winning the Hart is if they're leading that group in scoring. Right now that's Josi by a healthy margin.

Let's say for forwards we can choose two of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Gaudreau. Draisaitl plays on Edmonton but even though he has contributed to a higher % of offence, let's remove him. Then take Josi.

McDavid
Gaudreau
Josi

As your finalists. The goalie SV% race is too close to have one of them involved this year. Two months ago Shesterkin was way ahead and could've secured a spot in the top 3 voting. He's fallen back down to earth. I think a goalie has to be head and shoulders above his peers in net to be considered for this, which he currently isn't.

So who's the most valuable player in the world?

Well, it's McDavid. Gaudreau is having a great year especially 5 on 5, but there's no way someone who is 11 points back ends up winning it over McDavid, unless he closes the gap in the final games. As it stands now, there's no chance.

Josi is compelling. He's a lock for the Norris now, and like McDavid, his team doesn't make the playoffs without him. Hell, they might still miss WITH him. I wonder if their team is good enough for him to be considered. We had this argument at times in McDavid's career that you can't give MVP to someone whose team isn't even good. Well...I don't know.

McDavid is the obvious choice, but that becomes boring for people who don't want to see the same guy win every year. I think it would be downright evil to vote against someone just because he's already won it a few times. This isn't some participation award league. Give it to the literal MOST VALUABLE PLAYER -- the guy who leads the league in points while being keyed in on harder than anyone else.

If advanced stats guys want to chime in, go ahead. I already know McDavid has Selke level GA/60 while playing in front of two goalies with sub 900 SV% this year -- the worst goaltending tandem in the entire league.

Nashville: 230 goals, Roman Josi: 84 pts, 36.5%

Josi is most valuable to its team hands down but he probably won't win since he is a defenceman (which BS because a #1D is more important than a #1C).

 

[JustAHabFan]

Nashville: 230 goals, Roman Josi: 84 pts, 36.5%

Josi is most valuable to its team hands down but he probably won't win since he is a defenceman (which BS because a #1D is more important than a #1C).

Me too. I will give the Hart to Roman Josi. He is the MVP for Nashville. Without him, Nashville will be a lottery pick team.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Nashville: 230 goals, Roman Josi: 84 pts, 36.5%

Josi is most valuable to its team hands down but he probably won't win since he is a defenceman (which BS because a #1D is more important than a #1C).

By this logic...

Calgary: 243 goals, Johnny Gaudreau: 97 points, 39.9%