NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Oh but you get to just say there’s no case. Cute LOL. I’m not doing your work for you.

Here Gaudreau is pacing for historic ES point totals - most in 26 years

 

[Yackiberg8]

I think a pretty simple metric, and probably the one most people should consider instead of using 'narratives' is to look at how many points are removed from a team when they lose a player, or what % of their teams offence have they been a part of. Hart is in 99% of cases given to this player.

Let's do some quick %'s.

Florida - 294 goals, Huberdeau 102 points. 34.7%
Calgary - 241 goals, Gaudreau 95 points, 39.4%
Toronto - 270 goals, Matthews 95 points, 35.1%
Edmonton - 251 goals, McDavid 106 points, 42.2%
Edmonton - 251 goals, Draisaitl 101 points, 40.2%

The pair from Edmonton BOTH provide the two highest 'in on' points % relative to their teams goals compared to anyone else in the league. These two players, while playing on the same team, ON DIFFERENT LINES 5ON5, are #1 and #2 in the world for 'importance' in terms of providing goals to their team.

Simply put, nobody else in the league is more important to putting up goals in the entire league than McDavid, and it's not that close. Draisaitl and Gaudreau is a bit behind, and the others are waaaay behind.

Remove Huberdeau from Florida entirely and they're still going to be a stanley cup contender.

Remove McDavid from Edmonton and they aren't coming close to making the playoffs.

At this point for forwards, it has to be between McDavid and Gaudreau with McDavid holding a significant edge. He also has the 'it' factor that leads every teams top players shadowing him and seeing it as the biggest challenge possible to shut him down. Gaudreau doesn't have this level of competition.

As for defence and goalies, it is a lot harder to gauge their value. The only way a defenceman is winning the Hart is if they're leading that group in scoring. Right now that's Josi by a healthy margin.

Let's say for forwards we can choose two of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Gaudreau. Draisaitl plays on Edmonton but even though he has contributed to a higher % of offence, let's remove him. Then take Josi.

McDavid
Gaudreau
Josi

As your finalists. The goalie SV% race is too close to have one of them involved this year. Two months ago Shesterkin was way ahead and could've secured a spot in the top 3 voting. He's fallen back down to earth. I think a goalie has to be head and shoulders above his peers in net to be considered for this, which he currently isn't.

So who's the most valuable player in the world?

Well, it's McDavid. Gaudreau is having a great year especially 5 on 5, but there's no way someone who is 11 points back ends up winning it over McDavid, unless he closes the gap in the final games. As it stands now, there's no chance.

Josi is compelling. He's a lock for the Norris now, and like McDavid, his team doesn't make the playoffs without him. Hell, they might still miss WITH him. I wonder if their team is good enough for him to be considered. We had this argument at times in McDavid's career that you can't give MVP to someone whose team isn't even good. Well...I don't know.

McDavid is the obvious choice, but that becomes boring for people who don't want to see the same guy win every year. I think it would be downright evil to vote against someone just because he's already won it a few times. This isn't some participation award league. Give it to the literal MOST VALUABLE PLAYER -- the guy who leads the league in points while being keyed in on harder than anyone else.

If advanced stats guys want to chime in, go ahead. I already know McDavid has Selke level GA/60 while playing in front of two goalies with sub 900 SV% this year -- the worst goaltending tandem in the entire league.

Using your criteria JT Miller should win the Hart.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Here Gaudreau is pacing for historic ES point totals - most in 26 years

Thank you. That’s quite impressive.

 

[Regal]

40% of his points are on the PP. same with Leon. So, while they don’t play on the same line, almost half their scoring comes when they play together with the other team a man down. And neither is even in same ballpark as Gaudreau 5v5.

It’s not the runaway case you think it is.

If we’re noting that McDavid and Draisaitl have much better PP support, we need to note Gaudreau also has much better 5v5 support, though, both in terms of linemates and defensemen.

 

[Apari]

I'm totally on team Josi for the Hart. With 84 points already he's having one of the greatest seasons by dman in decades. He might get over 100 points which has been last time done by Brian Leetch in 91-92! Last time any dman even got to 90 points was in 93-94 by Ray Bourque, almost 30 years ago!
Currently he leads all dmen by 9 points (Makar with 75p) and leads all Nashville players by 12 points (Duchene 72p). And Josi doesn't only get power play points as he leads all dmen in even strength points with 51 (2nd Makar with 46), although he also leads league in PP points by dman and is 4th among all skaters.

If Josi can keep up this pace and get Nashville into the playoffs (really tough schedule for the remaining 13 games..), I would definitely vote for him to win the Hart.

Shesterkin has been great and would be in my second vote. Gaudreau, Huberdeau, Matthews and McDavid would round out my top 6. Aho, Kaprizov and Ovechkin would be in the next tier of choises.

 

[Sensators]

Shesterkin, Mcdavid or Josi, I won't be upset if Matthews wins it but TML would do well without him. If the others were injured their teams would miss the playoffs. Matthews is so so so good but Marner really helps him a lot more than Drai helps McDavid in my opinion. If Mcdavid was anyone else he would have a better shot, this stuff is expected from him.

 

[5 14 6 1]

McDavid
Josi
Matthews
Gaudreau
Shesterkin
Draisaitl

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If we’re noting that McDavid and Draisaitl have much better PP support, we need to note Gaudreau also has much better 5v5 support, though, both in terms of linemates and defensemen.

Also might be worth noting that they get about a full minute more per game of PP time. Gaudreau is 103rd in the league in PP TOI per game because Sutter.

 

[Edgelord]

Has there been a season where there are 7 worthy contenders?
Matthews
McDavid
Gaudreau
Huberdeau
Shesterkin
Josi
Drai
hell even if Marner keeps up this crazy pace he has a shot to get in the convo

 

[Calderon]

Do whe have the largest amount of Hart worthy players ever this season? The level and breadth of elite level performance is astonishing! I might have a favorite or two in the race but very convincing arguments can easily be made for half a dozen guys. Some of the best efforts we've seen for years will be not awarded with hardware.

 

[binop7]

Do whe have the largest amount of Hart worthy players ever this season? The level and breadth of elite level performance is astonishing! I might have a favorite or two in the race but very convincing arguments can easily be made for half a dozen guys. Some of the best efforts we've seen for years will be not awarded with hardware.

Feels like the hart is going down to the wire for sure.

 

[BigM2]

Josi with 3 more points tonight (87 in total). He has a very good shot of hitting 100 points, as a defencemen.

 

[TheStatican]

Matthews scores next game and this thing is over.

Sure the NHL won't recognize it as an offical 50 goals in 50 games but realistically it's not somehow less or easier of an accomplishment to do and the media will be all over it, likely going to be the regular season story of the year.

As is, 15 goals ahead while being only 9 points behind but with 6 less games played... Yeah, no chance this is going to McDavid unless he completely goes off in the last couple weeks here.

 

[pcruz]

Josi with 3 more points tonight (87 in total). He has a very good shot of hitting 100 points, as a defencemen.

Very good shot?

Needs to score nearly 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season. That's not conducive to a very good chance.

The Norris is all but locked up, and he will likely be top 3-5 in the Hart nomination regardless of 100 points.

I'd love to see him hit that mark though, to be honest.

Erik Karlsson with very good to great defense to boot. Just a phenomenal player who has flown under the radar so much in his career being in Nashville.

 

[swissexpert]

Very good shot?

Needs to score nearly 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season. That's not conducive to a very good chance.

The Norris is all but locked up, and he will likely be top 3-5 in the Hart nomination regardless of 100 points.

I'd love to see him hit that mark though, to be honest.

Erik Karlsson with very good to great defense to boot. Just a phenomenal player who has flown under the radar so much in his career being in Nashville.

Huh? Josi needs 13 points in 12 games (1.08 PPG)
He has 66 points in his last 44 games (1.50 PPG).

 

[pcruz]

Huh? Josi needs 13 points in 12 games (1.08 PPG)
He has 66 points in his last 44 games (1.50 PPG).

Holy shit...he's at 87 points?

Damn I thought he was at 85 with ~10 games left.

What a season!

 

[snag]

By this logic...

Calgary: 243 goals, Johnny Gaudreau: 97 points, 39.9%

Ain't that the kinda numbers that has contributed to people criticizing the Oilers

 

[Mez]

So many good choices this year....kinda unreal. Gonna be a salt mine no matter what player is chosen.

 

[thaman8765678]

So many good choices this year....kinda unreal. Gonna be a salt mine no matter what player is chosen.

I would be fine if Matthew's, Josi, Shesterkin or Gaudreau won.

They are all equally deserving.

 

[Old Boys Club]

I was on team Shesterkin earlier, but he kinda slowed down (which was to be expected). I just wanted him to have a historic season.

As of now, I'd pick Josi. 87 in 68 is nuts for a defenseman, not even mentioning that he's leading his next teammate in scoring by 13.

 

[93LEAFS]

So many good choices this year....kinda unreal. Gonna be a salt mine no matter what player is chosen.

It will depend on the final games, but it will go to the best narrative when it gets close. Matthews gets a surprising number of headlines on ESPN for a guy on a Canadian team, and if he hits 65 goals and stomps the record for an American born player with his unique background in hockey will give it pull. It will probably be heavily divided as I would think most Oilers writers will vote McDavid, most Leafs writers will vote Matthews, Nashville will vote Josi, Rangers will vote Shesterkin, Florida will vote Huberdeau, and Calgary will vote Gaudreau. I just hope we don't see any garbage voting like the time some Habs writers left Iginla off their ballot while voting for Theodore. It's the most interesting Hart race that I can remember.

 

[Duffalufagus]

You made a claim he didn’t deserve it. Now you’re just making a fool of yourself.

Lol. I said he he had no case. You said he did. It is on you to show why he has a case. But you can’t articulate one. So keep confusing basic principles of who bears the burden of proof.

 

[Duffalufagus]

I agree. I had to think about it for a second. Gaudreau is better but Huberdeau has the better narrative imo.

Maybe you’ll show your work?

 

[Quack Shot]

Josi easily. The dude is carrying that team as a defenseman.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Maybe you’ll show your work?

Why not show yours? I wasn't getting into specifics, just my general thoughts. You seem angsty. You can go first.