I think a pretty simple metric, and probably the one most people should consider instead of using 'narratives' is to look at how many points are removed from a team when they lose a player, or what % of their teams offence have they been a part of. Hart is in 99% of cases given to this player.
Let's do some quick %'s.
Florida - 294 goals, Huberdeau 102 points. 34.7%
Calgary - 241 goals, Gaudreau 95 points, 39.4%
Toronto - 270 goals, Matthews 95 points, 35.1%
Edmonton - 251 goals, McDavid 106 points, 42.2%
Edmonton - 251 goals, Draisaitl 101 points, 40.2%
The pair from Edmonton BOTH provide the two highest 'in on' points % relative to their teams goals compared to anyone else in the league. These two players, while playing on the same team, ON DIFFERENT LINES 5ON5, are #1 and #2 in the world for 'importance' in terms of providing goals to their team.
Simply put, nobody else in the league is more important to putting up goals in the entire league than McDavid, and it's not that close. Draisaitl and Gaudreau is a bit behind, and the others are waaaay behind.
Remove Huberdeau from Florida entirely and they're still going to be a stanley cup contender.
Remove McDavid from Edmonton and they aren't coming close to making the playoffs.
At this point for forwards, it has to be between McDavid and Gaudreau with McDavid holding a significant edge. He also has the 'it' factor that leads every teams top players shadowing him and seeing it as the biggest challenge possible to shut him down. Gaudreau doesn't have this level of competition.
As for defence and goalies, it is a lot harder to gauge their value. The only way a defenceman is winning the Hart is if they're leading that group in scoring. Right now that's Josi by a healthy margin.
Let's say for forwards we can choose two of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Gaudreau. Draisaitl plays on Edmonton but even though he has contributed to a higher % of offence, let's remove him. Then take Josi.
McDavid
Gaudreau
Josi
As your finalists. The goalie SV% race is too close to have one of them involved this year. Two months ago Shesterkin was way ahead and could've secured a spot in the top 3 voting. He's fallen back down to earth. I think a goalie has to be head and shoulders above his peers in net to be considered for this, which he currently isn't.
So who's the most valuable player in the world?
Well, it's McDavid. Gaudreau is having a great year especially 5 on 5, but there's no way someone who is 11 points back ends up winning it over McDavid, unless he closes the gap in the final games. As it stands now, there's no chance.
Josi is compelling. He's a lock for the Norris now, and like McDavid, his team doesn't make the playoffs without him. Hell, they might still miss WITH him. I wonder if their team is good enough for him to be considered. We had this argument at times in McDavid's career that you can't give MVP to someone whose team isn't even good. Well...I don't know.
McDavid is the obvious choice, but that becomes boring for people who don't want to see the same guy win every year. I think it would be downright evil to vote against someone just because he's already won it a few times. This isn't some participation award league. Give it to the literal MOST VALUABLE PLAYER -- the guy who leads the league in points while being keyed in on harder than anyone else.
If advanced stats guys want to chime in, go ahead. I already know McDavid has Selke level GA/60 while playing in front of two goalies with sub 900 SV% this year -- the worst goaltending tandem in the entire league.
