NHL.com TOP 20 Defenseman

[dgibb10]

Top 25 defensemen.

1. Cale Makar
2. Quinn Hughes
3. Miro Heiskanen
4. Roman Josi
5. Adam Fox
6. Victor Hedman
7. Gustav Forsling
8. Charlie McAvoy
9. Jaccob Slavin
10. Noah Dobson
11. Devon Toews
12. Josh Morrissey
13. Shea Theodore
14. Evan Bouchard
15. Rasmus Dahlin
16. Zach Werenski
17. Mattias Ekholm
18. Drew Doughty
19. Erik Karlsson
20. Dougie Hamilton
21. Moritz Seider
22. John Carlson
23. Chris Tanev
24. Kris Letang
25. Morgan Rielly

Hot take.

Marcus Pettersson is the Penguins best dman

 

[KickHimPedro]

It’s weird watching Hughes flee the ice during the critical points of the game.

Up 3-2 1 minute left. Gone

Tie game, game 7. McDavid in the ice. Gone

Makar isn’t high tailing it for the bench. Heiskanen isn’t.

Line matching is one thing. This feels like a glaring weakness. Great players don’t need to be sheltered.

He had a great season. He’s super talented and won the Norris. Everyone would love him in their team. He does his role extremely well. But to say he’s the best defenseman or top two? I don’t see it.

 

[norrisnick]

Is Seider playing against players from the Super NHL or what? He has the toughest matchups in NHL history? How is it tougher than any other top pairing D?

It's a mathematical formula that rates how good various players are relative to each other and then calculates the relative quality of player that any given player plays against. It's a combination of almost always playing against the opposition's best players and also rarely getting to play against their bottom of the lineup guys. Seider doesn't get cupcake shifts to pad his stats. He's putting out fires non-stop because the coaching staff doesn't trust anyone else. Would it help Seider's analytics if he got 2-3 more minutes against depth players? Yes. Would it help the Wings? Not really.

Here is a chart (from dobber hockey) that plots the 20 D from NHL.com's list:

 

[Sasha Orlov]

It's a mathematical formula that rates how good various players are relative to each other and then calculates the relative quality of player that any given player plays against. It's a combination of almost always playing against the opposition's best players and also rarely getting to play against their bottom of the lineup guys. Seider doesn't get cupcake shifts to pad his stats. He's putting out fires non-stop because the coaching staff doesn't trust anyone else. Would it help Seider's analytics if he got 2-3 more minutes against depth players? Yes. Would it help the Wings? Not really.

Here is a chart (from dobber hockey) that plots the 20 D from NHL.com's list:

View attachment 905193

How does this show he has the “toughest matchups in NHL history”?

 

[norrisnick]

How does this show he has the “toughest matchups in NHL history”?

I have made no claims with regards to NHL history. However, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, Seider has had the highest such figures since QoC has been tracked. It's like saying Cal Clutterbuck has the most hits in NHL history. He has the most hits in NHL history since they've tracked hits starting in 2005...

 

[Golden_Jet]

I have made no claims with regards to NHL history. However, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, Seider has had the highest such figures since QoC has been tracked. It's like saying Cal Clutterbuck has the most hits in NHL history. He has the most hits in NHL history since they've tracked hits starting in 2005...

Correct, It was Pavels dog

If Seider was able to achieve great defensive metrics in the toughest matchups in NHL history with Jake Walman/Ben Chiarot as his partner he should have won the Norris+Hart+Lindsey, heck throw in the Vezina, Calder and Conn Smythe too.

I think you'd agree that there has to be some gray area between "by far the best d-man in the NHL" and "getting killed". That's where Seider exists.

And a huge LOL at you thinking Andrew Copp or the defensive acumen of Debrincat and Kane is the reason Seider survives those matchups.

 

[nergish]

It’s weird watching Hughes flee the ice during the critical points of the game.

Up 3-2 1 minute left. Gone

Tie game, game 7. McDavid in the ice. Gone

Makar isn’t high tailing it for the bench. Heiskanen isn’t.

Line matching is one thing. This feels like a glaring weakness. Great players don’t need to be sheltered.

He had a great season. He’s super talented and won the Norris. Everyone would love him in their team. He does his role extremely well. But to say he’s the best defenseman or top two? I don’t see it.

Be honest, how many Canucks games did you actually watch last season?
What is his role in your opinion? Because in mine, he carries this team on his back, He doesn't just have a role on this team, it's his team...

But it's true - he's the most modern of the modern Dmen. In that he is the least effective defensively of this bunch, but the most effective offensively.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

It's a mathematical formula that rates how good various players are relative to each other and then calculates the relative quality of player that any given player plays against. It's a combination of almost always playing against the opposition's best players and also rarely getting to play against their bottom of the lineup guys. Seider doesn't get cupcake shifts to pad his stats. He's putting out fires non-stop because the coaching staff doesn't trust anyone else. Would it help Seider's analytics if he got 2-3 more minutes against depth players? Yes. Would it help the Wings? Not really.

Here is a chart (from dobber hockey) that plots the 20 D from NHL.com's list:

View attachment 905193

Reminder that 50% of this difference is directly attributed to the opposing team actively deciding to put their best players against him. A difference of this magnitude is likely explained by Detroit both not having a better option there, and also opposing teams willingly going into the matchup.

The other thing to note here is how much less ice time he gets compared to everyone else, makes you wonder why Detroit didn't use him for offense at all compared to everyone else on the list. Makes me curious to see an advanced stat on Icings for and against in Detroit if they were not able or willing to get him any positive matchups.

Either way, this says very little about Seider's abilities beyond his coach is taking an approach with him that is vastly different from everyone else on this list.

 

[Phrasing]

It’s weird watching Hughes flee the ice during the critical points of the game.

Up 3-2 1 minute left. Gone

Tie game, game 7. McDavid in the ice. Gone

Makar isn’t high tailing it for the bench. Heiskanen isn’t.

Line matching is one thing. This feels like a glaring weakness. Great players don’t need to be sheltered.

He had a great season. He’s super talented and won the Norris. Everyone would love him in their team. He does his role extremely well. But to say he’s the best defenseman or top two? I don’t see it.

Great logic. You should be a teacher.

 

[dgibb10]

It's a mathematical formula that rates how good various players are relative to each other and then calculates the relative quality of player that any given player plays against. It's a combination of almost always playing against the opposition's best players and also rarely getting to play against their bottom of the lineup guys. Seider doesn't get cupcake shifts to pad his stats. He's putting out fires non-stop because the coaching staff doesn't trust anyone else. Would it help Seider's analytics if he got 2-3 more minutes against depth players? Yes. Would it help the Wings? Not really.

Here is a chart (from dobber hockey) that plots the 20 D from NHL.com's list:

View attachment 905193

I'd argue that Seider getting caved in during those tough minutes isn't THAT beneficial to Detroit.

If Seider was hovering around even in those minutes, or even losing them slightly, sure.

But he's losing these minutes badly. I think detroit would be better served playing seider in spots where he can succeed. Especially with Ghost gone now, I don't think detroit has as much of a guy who's built to feast on easy minutes.

 

[norrisnick]

I'd argue that Seider getting caved in during those tough minutes isn't THAT beneficial to Detroit.

If Seider was hovering around even in those minutes, or even losing them slightly, sure.

But he's losing these minutes badly. I think detroit would be better served playing seider in spots where he can succeed. Especially with Ghost gone now, I don't think detroit has as much of a guy who's built to feast on easy minutes.View attachment 905250

I don't think the Wings or Seider much care about their analytics. Rightly or wrongly they have a very old-school approach on minimizing legit chances and getting defensive clears. And making Seider's analytics look better doesn't make the team perform better. Someone has to eat those matchups and the Wings don't have anyone better suited. Hopefully the staff is smart enough to fully utilize Edvinsson now that he's up.

 

[benfranklin]

Bouchard is a bit high for me for all around D and not purely O/PP. Fox too low.

First time I've noticed the psycho spelling of Jaccob.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't think the Wings or Seider much care about their analytics. Rightly or wrongly they have a very old-school approach on minimizing legit chances and getting defensive clears. And making Seider's analytics look better doesn't make the team perform better. Someone has to eat those matchups and the Wings don't have anyone better suited. Hopefully the staff is smart enough to fully utilize Edvinsson now that he's up.

And I am saying, seider currently gets caved in about

43-57, which is pretty ugly considering the worst guys on the sharks and blackhawks hover around 40-60.

I think sacrificing some of those minutes to a pairing that goes 40-60, and letting Seider, who has the skillset as we have seen to take advantage of easier minutes from his rookie year.

Last year, Ghost was a good fit as a guy to feast on the easy minutes available because seider took the hard matchups, although I don't think he ended up having ALL that much success especially towards the end of the year. I don't think the wings have that this year.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Heiskanen over Fox makes zero sense when Fox is better both offensively AND defensively than Miro.

I guess he skates nicer , congrats. And plays on a darling team .

 

[norrisnick]

And I am saying, seider currently gets caved in about

43-57, which is pretty ugly considering the worst guys on the sharks and blackhawks hover around 40-60.

I think sacrificing some of those minutes to a pairing that goes 40-60, and letting Seider, who has the skillset as we have seen to take advantage of easier minutes from his rookie year.

Last year, Ghost was a good fit as a guy to feast on the easy minutes available because seider took the hard matchups, although I don't think he ended up having ALL that much success especially towards the end of the year. I don't think the wings have that this year.

And if you listen to the coaches and Seider they know what his job is and how they measure it and it isn't 43-57.

 

[dgibb10]

And if you listen to the coaches and Seider they know what his job is and how they measure it and it isn't 43-57.

They can measure it however they want.

Seider isn't winning his minutes.

His Job is hard. Nobody would succeed in that Job. Seider is not succeeding in that job.

I look to Mike Matheson in MTL. He also has a very hard job, and he gets caved in just like seider does.

Now, Seider is a much better dman than Matheson, but they get quite similar results in those similar roles.

I believe you can put a lesser dman into those tough minutes, who will get caved in just like Seider does.

And then, you give Seider easier minutes that he can then dominate in a way that a lesser dman cannot.

Because the wings other dman haven't really been able to take advantage of those easier minutes at all.

 

[norrisnick]

They can measure it however they want.

Seider isn't winning his minutes.

His Job is hard. Nobody would succeed in that Job. Seider is not succeeding in that job.

I look to Mike Matheson in MTL. He also has a very hard job, and he gets caved in just like seider does.

Now, Seider is a much better dman than Matheson, but they get quite similar results in those similar roles.

I believe you can put a lesser dman into those tough minutes, who will get caved in just like Seider does.

And then, you give Seider easier minutes that he can then dominate in a way that a lesser dman cannot.

Because the wings other dman haven't really been able to take advantage of those easier minutes at all.

So the plan is to emulate a lesser player, facing lesser opposition, on a lesser team, and doing a worse job of it? That sounds like a winning strategy...

The only thing the Wings should emulate with Mo is Matheson's PP TOI. Mo was -5 at even strength this past season. And -5 of that came against McDavid.
He's fine. And as the kids come up his job can only get easier.

 

[dgibb10]

So the plan is to emulate a lesser player, facing lesser opposition, on a lesser team, and doing a worse job of it? That sounds like a winning strategy...

The only thing the Wings should emulate with Mo is Matheson's PP TOI. Mo was -5 at even strength this past season. And -5 of that came against McDavid.
He's fine. And as the kids come up his job can only get easier.

No my point is you're wasting Seiders talents having him get caved in out there. Why waste a Seider on a job that can be done by a Matheson.

Also he was -7 at EV, and that was buoyed by some pretty excellent shooting luck he got in front of him.

And again, that since detroit's other dmen were not very capable of taking advantage of easier minutes, those easier minutes were wasted.

 

[norrisnick]

No my point is you're wasting Seiders talents having him get caved in out there. Why waste a Seider on a job that can be done by a Matheson.

Also he was -7 at EV, and that was buoyed by some pretty excellent shooting luck he got in front of him.

And again, that since detroit's other dmen were not very capable of taking advantage of easier minutes, those easier minutes were wasted.

Because it can't be.

Take up the -5 ES GD with NHL.com.

Those easy minutes don't much matter if Seider's ES GD becomes say a -21 with someone else out there...

 

[dgibb10]

Because it can't be.

Take up the -5 ES GD with NHL.com.

Those easy minutes don't much matter if Seider's ES GD becomes say a -21 with someone else out there...

NHL.coms counts empty net situations as "even strength"

Seider's ES GD could become a -21 with HIM out there if he gets average shooting results in front of him.

One of these players is Matheson. One is Seider.

 

[norrisnick]

NHL.coms counts empty net situations as "even strength"

Seider's ES GD could become a -21 with HIM out there if he gets average shooting results in front of him.

View attachment 905331
View attachment 905332View attachment 905333
One of these players is Matheson. One is Seider.

Same number of players on the ice.

Seider's ES GD could also become positive with average goaltending behind him. All these wild possibilities. How about we stick with what actually happened?

 

[dgibb10]

Same number of players on the ice.

Seider's ES GD could also become positive with average goaltending behind him. All these wild possibilities. How about we stick with what actually happened?

Seider did have average goaltending behind him.

Sure, if Seider's goal differential is 19 goals better than his expected goal differential, he could do that.

 

[jackjohnson]

As long as Hughes was ranked anywhere in the top 3 after the season he had then I’m good, didn’t care what spot.

That fox ranking could ruffle some feathers

Hughes was automatic top 3 after winning Norris. If he was below top 3 then I would question how biased the writers would be and their sanity

Fox and Dahlin way too low, Hedman way too high, Hughes too high (why does it feel like any other player would be asked to prove the season wasn't a fluke but Hughes just gets anointed? Is it just because people don't want to deal with Canucks fans?)

Hughes too high?? After winning the Norris couple of months ago? HFboard is good for comedic relief sometimes

 

[jackjohnson]

I like the top 2. Adam Fox should definitely be there though, probably #3, but top 5 at worst.

Rest looks kind of ok at the top, except Forsling is too high. But no issue with the top 9 outside of those 2 things.

A bit less sure about the rankings of ~10-20, so i'll let others comment there.

I would go with recent Norris winners on top
1. Makar
2. Hughes
3. Fox
4. Josi

Then list 6 to 10 that is pretty interchangeable

 

[pb1300]

I would go with recent Norris winners on top
1. Makar
2. Hughes
3. Fox
4. Josi

Then list 6 to 10 that is pretty interchangeable

I can agree with that. Im a Panthers homer, but I dont think Forsling deserved to be above Fox, yet lol