yes. we just can't get too excited if only 1 moves up because they might've won the 2OA drawing
GDT: NHL 2023 draft 🎲 lottery 🎲 5pm PT, ESPN - Ducks will select 2nd overall
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TheGoodShepard1
Dongle Digits.
- Nov 26, 2017
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I’m surprisingly chill about the whole thing right now, though that’ll change the closer we get I’m sure. We all want the big prize, but no matter what happens, we’re still leaving with a terrific player.
Rasp
Registered User
- Apr 9, 2019
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The chance they get #2 instead of #1 is significantly lower. Basically 0.1% or lower any of these teams gets #2. So if they win a pick its extremely likely we get #1
Yes. This is what we want.
MCB
Registered User
- Jun 21, 2019
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I ran the sim a few times and had to stop when Chicago and San Jose both kept passing us. Just please not them.
branmuffin17
Registered User
Reveille1984
Registered User
- Dec 3, 2014
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So if one of the 12-16 teams moves up during the broadcast, we will know right away that we got at least 2nd OA, correct? Trying to figure out the new rules.
JonathnTaylorTavares
Registered User
- Feb 4, 2019
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Here we go boys, Christmas morning. Are we unwrapping a Playstation 5 or a Sega Dreamcast? Both great gifts
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All Mighty
Registered User
Correct. And if the 12-16 teams stay the same, we essentially drop down to an 18.5% chance at #1.
Reveille1984
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- Dec 3, 2014
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The #12 team has a chance to move up to #2, but that's the only anomaly. So there's some scenarios where a top 11 team wins the first lottery and gets 1OA, and then the #12 team wins the second lottery and gets 2OA.
Vipers31
Advanced Stagnostic
Took me a moment, but I think that’s a misinterpretation of the graphic in the OP. The 0.1% for the later pick - I think- is because it would require an even more lowly seeded team to win the first drawing and get locked in. The higher odds (like 5% for OTT to pick 2nd) is IMO already the aggregate of them a) winning the 1st draw and b) them winning the 2nd draw after the Ducks win the 1st draw. If we had the isolated odds, I’d have to think their odds for the 2nd draw would be better (or at least close) to the odds to win the 1st draw. Sorry for not making this more intelligible lol
- Sep 21, 2018
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Obviously no way to really know, but what are all of your opinions on the gap between 1st overall and 2nd/3rd in terms of what it would mean for us?
I'm seeing a lot of people rationalize the apparent inevitable drop in draft order, but I wonder how much eventual anguish it really warrants.
I'm seeing a lot of people rationalize the apparent inevitable drop in draft order, but I wonder how much eventual anguish it really warrants.
Vipers31
Advanced Stagnostic
It would be so damn hilarious (and cool) if they started going through the picks and the very first two went out of order. Weeks of anticipation, surely a long TV buildup to a dramatic reveal, and then have it over in the first potential moment
As far as the player goes, I don’t think a drop is that huge. Bedard probably becomes a 120 point player or so, possibly more, and the next few guys probably around 90-100. So points wise I don’t think the difference will be crazy, and the others have a more rounded game. One of the big reasons I really want Bedard though is so people can finally start f***ing paying attention to us. He’d generate so much buzz around our franchise
Boo Boo
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- Jan 31, 2013
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After 2 months of not talking about Chicago Columbus and San Jose being up in their games out of fear of jinxing the results 20 or more of you all voted that we will win first pick? Really?
Yeah, I actually think that if we get the 2/3 pick, it fits more into what we're building and if we get the #1 pick, it'll be restructuring it a bit. If you have big guys (Carlsson/Fantilli and McTavish), it's easier to have a few small guys around them (Z, Terry) and you can add one more small guy and a bigger guy or two big guys. If you get Bedard, you pretty much have to add 2 bigger guys to the top 6.
My guess is Chitcago (it's not a typo, say it out loud to yourself) gets #1. But I could see Detroit/Montreal getting 1/2 (if you believe in conspiracies).
Detroit- Bedard
Montreal- Fantilli/Carlsson
Anaheim- Fantilli/Carlsson
Columbus- Smith (because they've been hurting for that #1 C+ Russian factor)
Chicago- Michkov (then they get #1 next year or year after)
That gets all 3 O6 teams pick in the top 2 tiers of players.
But I think one of the O6 will move up (not conspiracy, two of them are just lucky) and one of Anaheim/Columbus gets the other pick (probably #2 because of luck).
Reveille1984
Registered User
- Dec 3, 2014
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Yeah, exactly.
No one player is going to change that much obviously. Look at McDavid for example, he's been basically the best player in the league since his second season in 2016 and the Oilers haven't made a SCF appearance. Hell, they basically have the top two forwards in the NHL and same issue. They didn't even make the playoffs in four of McDavid's first five years in the league.
Even if Bedard turns into McDavid, we need help pretty much everywhere.
We’re playing with house money but it’s still more fun to win
yeah basically we're not out of the woods if that happens. the only way we're out of the woods is if two teams in 12-16 move up.
I'm sweating and we are still a long ways away. I know we end up with a good player regardless, but we could go decades without a shot at a prospect of Bedard's caliber.
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
Yep exactly, Bedard alone couldn't drag his WHL team to anything above average. We need these other young players to develop and the right veterans to compliment them.
jiggsawpuzzle35
Registered User
People need to stop running the Tankathon simulator. You are putting yourself on an emotional rollercoaster. I just gave my co-worker the piss off look as the Ducks dropped 4 times in a row.
Dr Johnny Fever
RIP Grizzly 399
That's when the camera cuts back to evil Gary who then says, "There's been a challenge! We're going to Toronto for a replay on the drawing! Somebody may have misread the numbers!"
duckaroosky
So sayeth Duckthulu
If I don't run the scenarios on Tankathon then they're going to run in my head. At least this way I have an external source to be mad at. Worrying about things completely out of my control is what I do best.
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