News from Around the AHL/NHL/KHL 2023-24

[Glory Days]

DET lost again. They're drifting out of it for sure. Stevie Y has been there for 4 years now. He's either not all that, or it takes longer to rebuild than some people think.

No something must be wrong! I’ve read on this board that Stevie Y can’t do anything wrong and that rebuilds are a sure thing!

 

[CupHolders]

I'm in 100% agreement.

Trying back to the Maple Leafs as an example, it's even possible (likely) that they have their own internal analytics they're using when making decisions that we're not privy to. Something like that would change everything in terms of how #3 is interpreting decisions.

I've got a few big gripes with how enthusiasts use the data and with the data we have access to.

1) It assumes that all teams are trying to do the same things within the game and it ignores any differences in approach. The simplest example is when Corsi was being used, more shots = better team. This completely ignores teams who were intentionally taking less shots, so the analytics would suggest they're bad teams.

2) They've been used as a proxy for other information they're trying to gather. I'll stick with Corsi here. It was supposed to measure possession statistics, but it was using shot attempts to do so. Shot attempts do not directly correlate with possession. Why not just actually count the seconds of possessions? Now with the technology advancements you're referring to these proxy stats are basically meaningless since there's a real time stat that gives you the information the proxy was supposed to provide.

3) I think trends in hockey are cyclical. Certain strategies work well against others and perform worse against a different strategy. As the game shifts from one style to another the analytics used by enthusiasts will always be lagging behind. What was popular today might not be tomorrow and consistently evaluating teams with the same analytics could lead you down the wrong path.

4) The predictive nature of the stats simply isn't good. I've mentioned this in conversations with other posters when it's mentioned that "it's the best we have." Flipping a coin might be the best we have but it's still not good. Dom Lucyozaodfjadjfaodf has his model that he's constantly tweaking year after year, which makes it pretty much useless because there's no solid baseline. I think trying to track a team's analytics year to year verses the entire NHL is ineffective because of roster turnover and the coaching carousel. Teams doing something unsustainable over multiple seasons isn't unsustainability, it's just that teams improve and regress over time. At some point all teams regress as well, so if you're predicting something to be unsustainable then on a long enough timeline you'll always be proven correct.

Ultimately, I think the enthusiasts are a little too bullish on their claims. They often state them as empirical truth when they're anything but. We'll see more information come from the technological advancements and teams will start to use that more than they already are (shot velocity, release times, cross ice passes, puck pathing, etc.).

Very well written and agree on all points.

I would also add on your point about teams using their own internal analytics. This is absolutely true and has been confirmed by multiple sources. Along with Art Staple about the Isles specifically.

During Trotz time they specifically looked for high danger opportunities over volume shooting. Also game planned their structure around limiting shots immediately off of cross-ice passes. Which was around that time seemingly started to become more popular with enthusiasts and on the forefront of many analyst as a highly successful play to score on.

Moreover, while I do not have any proof… I’m of the opinion that the Isles under Trotz not only looked for high danger shot attempts over volume shooting, but also limited their shot selections to the kind that were less likely to lead to counter attacks.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Not sure why SEA didn't add, they are a top-6/top-4 D man away from making some real noise in the West. Fun team to watch.

 

[Mike C]

DET lost again. They're drifting out of it for sure. Stevie Y has been there for 4 years now. He's either not all that, or it takes longer to rebuild than some people think.

Just finishing watching it. The 2 losses vs Ottawa took the wind out of them. Stevie is talking like they are out of it and defending his trades and building for the future. He is of the mindset that making the playoffs isn't enough and being a cup contender is what he's seeking and he's blabbing that all over the Detroit media

On the ice, they are back on their heels and playing tentatively

Tampa Bay is in absolute free fall melt down mode. They lost again today 6-0, one day after multiple top players were benched for the entire third period. I believe it is their sixth loss in a row. Not only that, they became the first team in the entire NHL this year to have an entire period with no shots. They had 4, yes FOUR shots after two periods. It is crazy but the Isles are within only 7 points of them too, although it does not really matter unless Buffalo was to pass them. With all that said I would not be the slightest bit surprised if by the time April rolls around and we play them twice in three games that Vasilevskiy is back to being a brick wall and gets two shutouts.

Saw a blurb on Det feed tonight that Hedman and Kuchie Koo left with injuries

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Tampa Bay is in absolute free fall melt down mode. They lost again today 6-0, one day after multiple top players were benched for the entire third period. I believe it is their sixth loss in a row. Not only that, they became the first team in the entire NHL this year to have an entire period with no shots. They had 4, yes FOUR shots after two periods. It is crazy but the Isles are within only 7 points of them too, although it does not really matter unless Buffalo was to pass them. With all that said I would not be the slightest bit surprised if by the time April rolls around and we play them twice in three games that Vasilevskiy is back to being a brick wall and gets two shutouts.

That's pretty much what I'm expecting.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Not sure why SEA didn't add, they are a top-6/top-4 D man away from making some real noise in the West. Fun team to watch.

I think Francis is on the conservative side with his building approach. I don't think he has any interest in going the Vegas route. Looks like he wants that team growing organically into a competitor.

The success this season is like free money. It's putting fannies in the seats and just getting to the playoffs makes this season a real win. His victory is going to be in this summer's draft. 4 picks in the first two rounds; 10 in total.

Then he's got plenty of space to go shopping this summer. The next step can come next season.

We can't forget - the west is pretty wide open come playoff time.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

DET lost again. They're drifting out of it for sure. Stevie Y has been there for 4 years now. He's either not all that, or it takes longer to rebuild than some people think.

They are drifting out of it this season. Thankfully.

But let there be no doubt - Yzerman didn't build this year's team to be successful this season. Incrementally, perhaps yes, a touch - but he spent last summer preparing for this deadline day.

The pressure to win now isn't there in DayTwaa just yet. Instead, Yzerman intentionally handicapped this year's team as he was planning all along in order to arm up to the tune of 10 picks (5 in the first two rounds, including ours) in a whopper of a draft.

And after drafting a ton in recent years, it looks like they just need to kill it this summer and then they're set. Most evey other piece necessary is there and in the works.

 

[doublechili]

They are drifting out of it this season. Thankfully.

But let there be no doubt - Yzerman didn't build this year's team to be successful this season. Incrementally, perhaps yes, a touch - but he spent last summer preparing for this deadline day.

The pressure to win now isn't there in DayTwaa just yet. Instead, Yzerman intentionally handicapped this year's team as he was planning all along in order to arm up to the tune of 10 picks (5 in the first two rounds, including ours) in a whopper of a draft.

And after drafting a ton in recent years, it looks like they just need to kill it this summer and then they're set. Most evey other piece necessary is there and in the works.

That's all good, but when people talk about tearing down and rebuilding they have to consider that it takes a long time (unless you luck into ready players like the NYR). If Yzerman is being patient and hoarding picks, that's fine. But most/all of the guys he's drafting with all those picks this summer won't make meaningful contributions for another few years and he's already been GM for 4 years. So if the Isles tear it down now, be ready to compete again in 2030.

 

[JKP]

DET lost again. They're drifting out of it for sure. Stevie Y has been there for 4 years now. He's either not all that, or it takes longer to rebuild than some people think.

Or both.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

My $0.02 - ive asked what the point of Dom Lyscheusuvnrjsnsnworjff model is, and you dont get a real response. There is no point to his model. Is it to predict success? No! Oh, ok.

anyhoo - my real $0.02 - analytics have their place, and I think could be used as additonal information in decision making, but as long as humans are involved in playing and coaching the game, then there’s no way any analytic data will be 100% correct.

Nothing is 100% predictable when if comes to professional sports. However, as Data/AI improves, an uplift in accuracy can be expected Nothing is guaranteed though.

 

[NYI365]

Massive 48 hour swing potential here with BUF playing against EDM and then us tomorrow night. Need 2 B2B regulation losses by BUF to cool them down.

 

[PK Cronin]

DET lost again. They're drifting out of it for sure. Stevie Y has been there for 4 years now. He's either not all that, or it takes longer to rebuild than some people think.

Detroit was finished after losing to the Islanders. There's no hope for them now, too many teams to hop over and too many points to accumulate. Washington was a seller at the deadline and is still in front of them.

Nothing is 100% predictable when if comes to professional sports. However, as Data/AI improves, an uplift in accuracy can be expected Nothing is guaranteed though.

Absolutely, the issue with the current data we have is that it's not predictive at all. I had a breakdown during a previous conversation about the last two or three playoffs. If you predicted the winner based of the consensus best advanced analytics available to us you'd have lost significantly more than you'd have won. It's just not predictive at all.

 

[PROMputt]

Massive 48 hour swing potential here with BUF playing against EDM and then us tomorrow night. Need 2 B2B regulation losses by BUF to cool them down.

And then the Islanders are in Pitt on Thursday night looking for the seaon sweep. Could be a really big week, fingers crossed...

 

[SI90]

 

[Bones45]

Oil better blow up the Buffalos

 

[JRD76]

Oil better blow up the Buffalos

1-0 connor mcdavids

Make that 1-1 buff on the PP. Might be a high scoring game

 

[Gleb2006]

Dang that buffalo PP looked good. 1-1

 

[Bones45]

How does the same team that gets Gretzky ALSO get McDavid?

This can keep me up at night.


Plus. Coffey. Fuhr. Kurri.

Oh yea. Some guy named Messier also.


Amazing

 

[MJF]

1-0 connor mcdavids

Make that 1-1 buff on the PP. Might be a high scoring game

Stuart Skinner isn't the answer either.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Rooting for the Blue & Orange team tonight

 

[Sparksrus3]

How does the same team that gets Gretzky ALSO get McDavid?

This can keep me up at night.


Plus. Coffey. Fuhr. Kurri.

Oh yea. Some guy named Messier also.


Amazing

Lemieux,Crosby,Malkin


Dipietro, Berard, Dumont , Connolly

 

[duster19]

Stuart Skinner isn't the answer either.

They still give up way too many goals. Ekholm is a nice player but he will prob look out of place in that lineup.

 

[mm11]

Stuart Skinner isn't the answer either.

yeeeesh

 

[mm11]

gonna be a track meet up in Buffalo

 

[Big L]

Legal drinking age 18 in Canada?