News from Around the AHL/NHL/KHL 2023-24

[Big L]

Yes. Goaltending for one.

i dunno. vassy not looking like a world beater lately

 

[PK Cronin]

Does Tampa still have enough to take down Toronto in the first round?

Can they? Yes. Will they? I don't think so.

They're the underdog in that series. Tampa Bay has lost quite a few important pieces and you can only cobble solutions together for so long before the glue starts to come undone.

 

[LeapOnOver]

All these other teams have 15-16 games in march. Isles have 12. Yes i looked and counted. End of march games should be pretty much even

Thanks for your effort!

 

[Overthrow32]

Think we can all appreciate this.

 

[JKP]

i dunno. vassy not looking like a world beater lately

Neither are the Leafs… I’d still bet on the three-time finalists over perennial chokers. 0-13 in series clinching games vs a team that won 11 straight series. That’s a series mental edge when it gets later in the series. One knows they can do it, the other has nothing but doubts if they ever will…

 

[CupHolders]

Just noticed that the Rangers are off until next Thursday. That stinks. It gives them time to practice, rest up and get their new additions acclimated. I was hoping they would have enough games that it wouldn't allow them time to get their footing. They are a defensive and system mess right now.

 

[MJF]

Just noticed that the Rangers are off until next Thursday. That stinks. It gives them time to practice, rest up and get their new additions acclimated. I was hoping they would have enough games that it wouldn't allow them time to get their footing. They are a defensive and system mess right now.

Maybe Tarasenko and Kane were 2 adds too many.

 

[CupHolders]

For years many of us on these very boards said that Toronto was poorly built for the playoffs and yet Leafs management (paid professionals) took much longer to come to this conclusion. They have wasted the Matthew's and Marner's trade restriction free years. After this July 1st. both players will have NMC that take them straight to UFA.

Additionally, during that time that many of us here questioned the Leafs philosophy of team building, the main boards would often espouse the talking heads like Luszczyszyn's models of how they were on the right track. Never questioning whether those models while useful, were still based on metrics in the need of improvement or further refinement. As an example, CORSI was widely credited as a better indicator of team success only a few years ago. Now it is not as much as other metrics. So what does that mean for all of the individuals who were insistent about CORSI over actual results?

Moreover, when someone like Steve Valiquette, a former player and CEO of Clear Sight analytics questions how metrics are being interpreted (mostly by the talking heads), then I think many of us have a hard time taking those interpretations on face value.

Finally, my concern is that over the years there is this growing acceptance of discrediting actual results over advanced metrics and it's application to predicting likely results. Similarly of what is happening in this thread*

*To add context… this post was originally posted in the Romanov thread. Moved here for more relevance.

 

[CupHolders]

Can they? Yes. Will they? I don't think so.

They're the underdog in that series. Tampa Bay has lost quite a few important pieces and you can only cobble solutions together for so long before the glue starts to come undone.

Short of a Toronto Goalie meltdown (which is possible) I think they will beat Tampa.

 

[MJF]

Moreover, when someone like Steve Valiquette, a former player and CEO of Clear Sight analytics questions how metrics are being interpreted (mostly by the talking heads), then I think many of us have a hard time taking those interpretations on face value.

Finally, my concern is that over the years there is this growing acceptance of discrediting actual results over advanced metrics and it's application to predicting likely results. Similarly of what is happening in this thread.

100%

This is akin to someone saying the best team did not win the championship, 7 years in a row.

 

[PK Cronin]

For years many of us on these very boards said that Toronto was poorly built for the playoffs and yet Leafs management (paid professionals) took much longer to come to this conclusion. They have wasted the Matthew's and Marner's trade restriction free years. After this July 1st. both players will have NMC that take them straight to UFA.

Additionally, during that time that many of us here questioned the Leafs philosophy of team building, the main boards would often espouse the talking heads like Luszczyszyn's models of how they were on the right track. Never questioning whether those models while useful, were still based on metrics in the need of improvement or further refinement. As an example, CORSI was widely credited as a better indicator of team success only a few years ago. Now it is not as much as other metrics. So what does that mean for all of the individuals who were insistent about CORSI over actual results?

Moreover, when someone like Steve Valiquette, a former player and CEO of Clear Sight analytics questions how metrics are being interpreted (mostly by the talking heads), then I think many of us have a hard time taking those interpretations on face value.

Finally, my concern is that over the years there is this growing acceptance of discrediting actual results over advanced metrics and it's application to predicting likely results. Similarly of what is happening in this thread.

This is hitting it right on the head so I moved it here instead of the Romanov thread, since that's wandered a bit away from the player at this point.

The fact that Toronto management took longer than many of us to reach the conclusion about their team's strategy for winning is a significant setback for the advanced statistics enthusiasts. Toronto has been considered the favorite team for the analytics community, but with their recent overhaul of the roster to gear up for the playoffs, it raises questions about the effectiveness of analytics. If the analytics are to be trusted, why is Toronto abandoning them now? I know it's not a full reversal, but they're acknowledging that there's something the advanced stats aren't capturing when it comes to the playoffs and are trying to address it. Kudos to them for doing so.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Think we can all appreciate this.

As bad as those old Canucks sweaters are, they're 100 times better than what they have now.

 

[Mike C]

Neither are the Leafs… I’d still bet on the three-time finalists over perennial chokers. 0-13 in series clinching games vs a team that won 11 straight series. That’s a series mental edge when it gets later in the series. One knows they can do it, the other has nothing but doubts if they ever will…

Never underestimate the heart of a champion

 

[Glory Days]

This is hitting it right on the head so I moved it here instead of the Romanov thread, since that's wandered a bit away from the player at this point.

The fact that Toronto management took longer than many of us to reach the conclusion about their team's strategy for winning is a significant setback for the advanced statistics enthusiasts. Toronto has been considered the favorite team for the analytics community, but with their recent overhaul of the roster to gear up for the playoffs, it raises questions about the effectiveness of analytics. If the analytics are to be trusted, why is Toronto abandoning them now? I know it's not a full reversal, but they're acknowledging that there's something the advanced stats aren't capturing when it comes to the playoffs and are trying to address it. Kudos to them for doing so.

There needs to be a balance between analytics and scouting. Under Dubas the Leafs have leaned too heavily on analytics and not enough on scouting. Clearly they are trying to correct that imbalance now.

My concern under Lou is the opposite. I’m not sure how much of his decision making is influenced by analytics but if I had to guess I’d say not enough.

 

[seafoam]

Man Tavares has been getting laid out a lot more as a TML than he ever was with NYI. That’s the Matt Martin difference folks

 

[The Real JT]

Never underestimate the heart of a champion

And never underestimate the lack of heart of a team that professes to be but consistently fails to be a champion.

 

[Mike C]

And never underestimate the lack of heart of a team that professes to be but consistently fails to be a champion.

 

[CupHolders]

This is hitting it right on the head so I moved it here instead of the Romanov thread, since that's wandered a bit away from the player at this point.

The fact that Toronto management took longer than many of us to reach the conclusion about their team's strategy for winning is a significant setback for the advanced statistics enthusiasts. Toronto has been considered the favorite team for the analytics community, but with their recent overhaul of the roster to gear up for the playoffs, it raises questions about the effectiveness of analytics. If the analytics are to be trusted, why is Toronto abandoning them now? I know it's not a full reversal, but they're acknowledging that there's something the advanced stats aren't capturing when it comes to the playoffs and are trying to address it. Kudos to them for doing so.

Just to clarify since I was the one who posted that. I am not at all against analytics. I think it is a very useful tool and has its place in the present and more so in the future.

While I think you already do so PK Cronin, I think for the sake clarity; we need to make a distinction between:

1) analytical metrics themselves

2) recognized professionals in this field

3) enthusiasts (who can be anyone with any kind of experience, ability or lack there of.

Again, I’m not against the first two groups, but am leery about outright accepting the third group. Which is made up of the social/media individuals who are users on this site and/or in the hockey media itself.

I think as technology progresses (trackers on pucks, health readers on players, accelerometers on hockey sticks etc.) you will have additional waves of data and theories on how to interpret it. There will be further improvements in predictive metrics.

However, that doesn’t change that there will always be elusive results due to randomness and/or real time game adjustments based on previous analytics.

So that’s my long way of saying just because the weather person predicts a major snow storm with near certainty for the following day… I may pickup necessary supplies, but I’m not going to treat it as my work WILL close for a snow day BEFORE they actually call it.

Unless it’s @TeamKidd ’s prediction. If so, I’m picking up the bread and bourbon on my way home from work and getting immediately started on making PB&J and Whiskey Highballs.

 

[PK Cronin]

Just to clarify since I was the one who posted that. I am not at all against analytics. I think it is a very useful tool and has its place in the present and more so in the future.

While I think you already do so PK Cronin, I think for the sake clarity; we need to make a distinction between:

1) analytical metrics themselves

2) recognized professionals in this field

3) enthusiasts (who can be anyone with any kind of experience, ability or lack there of.

Again, I’m not against the first two groups, but am leery about outright accepting the third group. Which is made up of the social/media individuals who are users on this site and/or in the hockey media itself.

I think as technology progresses (trackers on pucks, health readers on players, accelerometers on hockey sticks etc.) you will have additional waves of data and theories on how to interpret it. There will be further improvements in predictive metrics.

However, that doesn’t change that there will always be elusive results due to randomness and/or real time game adjustments based on previous analytics.

So that’s my long way of saying just because the weather person predicts a major snow storm with near certainty for the following day… I may pickup necessary supplies, but I’m not going to treat it as my work WILL close for a snow day BEFORE they actually call it.

Unless it’s @TeamKidd ’s prediction. If so, I’m picking up the bread and bourbon on my way home from work and getting immediately started on making PB&J and Whiskey Highballs.

I'm in 100% agreement.

Tying back to the Maple Leafs as an example, it's even possible (likely) that they have their own internal analytics they're using when making decisions that we're not privy to. Something like that would change everything in terms of how #3 is interpreting decisions.

I've got a few big gripes with how enthusiasts use the data and with the data we have access to.

1) It assumes that all teams are trying to do the same things within the game and it ignores any differences in approach. The simplest example is when Corsi was being used, more shots = better team. This completely ignores teams who were intentionally taking less shots, so the analytics would suggest they're bad teams.

2) They've been used as a proxy for other information they're trying to gather. I'll stick with Corsi here. It was supposed to measure possession statistics, but it was using shot attempts to do so. Shot attempts do not directly correlate with possession. Why not just actually count the seconds of possessions? Now with the technology advancements you're referring to these proxy stats are basically meaningless since there's a real time stat that gives you the information the proxy was supposed to provide.

3) I think trends in hockey are cyclical. Certain strategies work well against others and perform worse against a different strategy. As the game shifts from one style to another the analytics used by enthusiasts will always be lagging behind. What was popular today might not be tomorrow and consistently evaluating teams with the same analytics could lead you down the wrong path.

4) The predictive nature of the stats simply isn't good. I've mentioned this in conversations with other posters when it's mentioned that "it's the best we have." Flipping a coin might be the best we have but it's still not good. Dom Lucyozaodfjadjfaodf has his model that he's constantly tweaking year after year, which makes it pretty much useless because there's no solid baseline. I think trying to track a team's analytics year to year verses the entire NHL is ineffective because of roster turnover and the coaching carousel. Teams doing something unsustainable over multiple seasons isn't unsustainability, it's just that teams improve and regress over time. At some point all teams regress as well, so if you're predicting something to be unsustainable then on a long enough timeline you'll always be proven correct.

Ultimately, I think the enthusiasts are a little too bullish on their claims. They often state them as empirical truth when they're anything but. We'll see more information come from the technological advancements and teams will start to use that more than they already are (shot velocity, release times, cross ice passes, puck pathing, etc.).

 

[Big L]

I'm in 100% agreement.

Trying back to the Maple Leafs as an example, it's even possible (likely) that they have their own internal analytics they're using when making decisions that we're not privy to. Something like that would change everything in terms of how #3 is interpreting decisions.

I've got a few big gripes with how enthusiasts use the data and with the data we have access to.

1) It assumes that all teams are trying to do the same things within the game and it ignores any differences in approach. The simplest example is when Corsi was being used, more shots = better team. This completely ignores teams who were intentionally taking less shots, so the analytics would suggest they're bad teams.

2) They've been used as a proxy for other information they're trying to gather. I'll stick with Corsi here. It was supposed to measure possession statistics, but it was using shot attempts to do so. Shot attempts do not directly correlate with possession. Why not just actually count the seconds of possessions? Now with the technology advancements you're referring to these proxy stats are basically meaningless since there's a real time stat that gives you the information the proxy was supposed to provide.

3) I think trends in hockey are cyclical. Certain strategies work well against others and perform worse against a different strategy. As the game shifts from one style to another the analytics used by enthusiasts will always be lagging behind. What was popular today might not be tomorrow and consistently evaluating teams with the same analytics could lead you down the wrong path.

4) The predictive nature of the stats simply isn't good. I've mentioned this in conversations with other posters when it's mentioned that "it's the best we have." Flipping a coin might be the best we have but it's still not good. Dom Lucyozaodfjadjfaodf has his model that he's constantly tweaking year after year, which makes it pretty much useless because there's no solid baseline. I think trying to track a team's analytics year to year verses the entire NHL is ineffective because of roster turnover and the coaching carousel. Teams doing something unsustainable over multiple seasons isn't unsustainability, it's just that teams improve and regress over time. At some point all teams regress as well, so if you're predicting something to be unsustainable then on a long enough timeline you'll always be proven correct.

Ultimately, I think the enthusiasts are a little too bullish on their claims. They often state them as empirical truth when they're anything but. We'll see more information come from the technological advancements and teams will start to use that more than they already are (shot velocity, release times, cross ice passes, puck pathing, etc.).

My $0.02 - ive asked what the point of Dom Lyscheusuvnrjsnsnworjff model is, and you dont get a real response. There is no point to his model. Is it to predict success? No! Oh, ok.

anyhoo - my real $0.02 - analytics have their place, and I think could be used as additonal information in decision making, but as long as humans are involved in playing and coaching the game, then there’s no way any analytic data will be 100% correct.

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

Tampa Bay is in absolute free fall melt down mode. They lost again today 6-0, one day after multiple top players were benched for the entire third period. I believe it is their sixth loss in a row. Not only that, they became the first team in the entire NHL this year to have an entire period with no shots. They had 4, yes FOUR shots after two periods. It is crazy but the Isles are within only 7 points of them too, although it does not really matter unless Buffalo was to pass them. With all that said I would not be the slightest bit surprised if by the time April rolls around and we play them twice in three games that Vasilevskiy is back to being a brick wall and gets two shutouts.

 

[Big L]

Buffalo plays at home Monday nIght. Then Comes to UBS on Tuesday night.

 

[Mike C]

Buffalo plays at home Monday nIght. Then Comes to UBS on Tuesday night.

Got Det/Philly DVRing for later

Ottawa in Chicago tomorrow. Caps in L.A.

You hit it on head yesterday. Just control what we can and keep collecting points

 

[doublechili]

Just control what we can and keep collecting points

Yup. They're not going to win every game of course, but even just getting to OT and getting those loser points as much as possible will help.

 

[doublechili]

Got Det/Philly DVRing for later

DET lost again. They're drifting out of it for sure. Stevie Y has been there for 4 years now. He's either not all that, or it takes longer to rebuild than some people think.