UPDATED: First look at DRAFTe projections for the 2023 NHL Draft
Back to 2023. This is an incredible year for tanking, though tanking does not exist in the NHL.
I might sound like Captain obvious here, but it is interesting to see that numbers are indeed confirming what all experts have been foreseeing for a while.
First and foremost, it is mind blowing how many prospects have put up the best historical performance in their respective leagues since our model begun in 2008.
Connor Bedard just blows away the WHL record of Evander Kane and is above Connor McDavid.
Adam Fantilli beats Jack Eichel in the NCAA.
Michkov has the best in VHL, though not in KHL.
Both Gabe Perreault and Will Smith are above Oliver Wahlstrom in the USHL.
David Reinbacher is above Roman Josi in the Swiss National League.
Martin Misiak is above Adam Sykora and Filip Mesar in Slovakia and Magomed Sharakanov is the best defenseman out of the Russian MHL.
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Connor Bedard is… now at the top of the list (not by much). He obviously is the best prospect this year, and his DRAFTe numbers alone are incredible, especially for a Canadian junior. OHL, WHL and LHJMQ are leagues that bring a bit more uncertainty in the model given the large sample of prospects drafted from there, which includes some busts even at the highest level, when the best prospects from any European senior league make it to the NHL.
The next observation here is that, despite Bedard’s extraordinary numbers, two guys, Adam Fantilli and Matvei Michkov are having such incredible seasons that the model puts them relatively close to him. Which underlines how great this group is.
Furthermore, three other players, Leo Carlsson and David Reinbacher would also all have been at the top of the 2022 list (only behind Simon Nemec and his historical numbers).
You want more? Colby Barlow, Zach Benson and Andrew Cristall would all have been on the podium of the 2022 draft, behind Nemec and Kemell.
That's a great year for tanking
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