Prospect Info: New Jersey Devils Draft Simon Nemec, 2nd Overall

[Rhodes 81]

Why is that? I'm not clear on the contract specifics.

I see his ELC slid a year already. I thought that the max it could slide? Or is it possible to slide another year?

I believe it's still eligible to slide this year, but I could be wrong about that. If I am, throw that thought out the window.

 

[Triumph]

I realize this should and will not weigh into decision making, but it really would be ideal for long-term team building from a contract standpoint if Nemec plays in the AHL again this year.

I disagree. Yes, it gives the Devils an extra ELC year, but it almost certainly means a raise on Nemec's next deal. Having Luke and Simon offset is good enough for me.

As for Nemec being blocked, there's this idea that defensemen of a certain stripe have to play on the power play and I don't see the Devils subscribing to that. Nemec wasn't playing PP1 in Utica and I believe he wasn't even playing on it at all some nights.

 

[Guttersniped]

I believe it's still eligible to slide this year, but I could be wrong about that. If I am, throw that thought out the window.

Capfriendly is your, uh, friend with this, they put a blue symbol next to every player who is contract slide candidate. (The green is for waiver eligibility.)

 

[Devs3cups]

I actually see Nemec as a very good PP QB going forward. His passing, poise and shot placement are all very good. I liked what I saw of him on the PP when I’ve seen him slotted there.

 

[Rhodes 81]

I disagree. Yes, it gives the Devils an extra ELC year, but it almost certainly means a raise on Nemec's next deal. Having Luke and Simon offset is good enough for me.

As for Nemec being blocked, there's this idea that defensemen of a certain stripe have to play on the power play and I don't see the Devils subscribing to that. Nemec wasn't playing PP1 in Utica and I believe he wasn't even playing on it at all some nights.

Obviously projecting out this far is a fool's errand to begin with, but I'm basing this thought off of the Palat contract. The assumption here is that you buyout Palat to find the extra money for Nemec.

Using the cap friendly calculator, Palat's buyout in 2026 would be $2.7 in 26-27 and $1.65 is 27-28. If Nemec burns a year this season, and using rough estimates for Mercer and L. Hughes extensions and general costs of filling out the roster, I think it's safe to assume you'll need to conduct the buyout (or trade Palat to a salary farm). If his ELC slides, you can probably just ride out the Palat contract.

I get the appeal of burning a year to reduce the value of the 2nd contract, but that may be a better idea in a vacuum than it is here.

Granted if he did slide then you also have to re-sign both him and Nico in the same offseason so who knows. Like I said in the first place, it shouldn't factor into if he makes the team or not anyway considering we're in a win-now window.

 

[My3Sons]

Obviously projecting out this far is a fool's errand to begin with, but I'm basing this thought off of the Palat contract. The assumption here is that you buyout Palat to find the extra money for Nemec.

Using the cap friendly calculator, Palat's buyout in 2026 would be $2.7 in 26-27 and $1.65 is 27-28. If Nemec burns a year this season, and using rough estimates for Mercer and L. Hughes extensions and general costs of filling out the roster, I think it's safe to assume you'll need to conduct the buyout (or trade Palat to a salary farm). If his ELC slides, you can probably just ride out the Palat contract.

I get the appeal of burning a year to reduce the value of the 2nd contract, but that may be a better idea in a vacuum than it is here.

Granted if he did slide then you also have to re-sign both him and Nico in the same offseason so who knows. Like I said in the first place, it shouldn't factor into if he makes the team or not anyway considering we're in a win-now window.

As always you make some very good points. I guess the rising cap will play a role in this as well.

 

[Triumph]

Obviously projecting out this far is a fool's errand to begin with, but I'm basing this thought off of the Palat contract. The assumption here is that you buyout Palat to find the extra money for Nemec.

Using the cap friendly calculator, Palat's buyout in 2026 would be $2.7 in 26-27 and $1.65 is 27-28. If Nemec burns a year this season, and using rough estimates for Mercer and L. Hughes extensions and general costs of filling out the roster, I think it's safe to assume you'll need to conduct the buyout (or trade Palat to a salary farm). If his ELC slides, you can probably just ride out the Palat contract.

I get the appeal of burning a year to reduce the value of the 2nd contract, but that may be a better idea in a vacuum than it is here.

Granted if he did slide then you also have to re-sign both him and Nico in the same offseason so who knows. Like I said in the first place, it shouldn't factor into if he makes the team or not anyway considering we're in a win-now window.

That's all reasonable but I just don't see how you're going to keep him out of the NHL this season. The Devils were lucky that their defense corps suffered only one injury last season, but had they suffered any more I think Nemec would've gotten some NHL time; he was playing well enough to deserve it. I don't think there's going to be an argument to keeping Nemec out of the NHL next year if there's an injury except his contract.

Maybe Nemec will have to be bridged in 2026, or maybe Palat will have to be traded or bought out - so be it. Can't plot these things out and certainly cannot worry about them in the day to day operation of the team.

 

[My3Sons]

That's all reasonable but I just don't see how you're going to keep him out of the NHL this season. The Devils were lucky that their defense corps suffered only one injury last season, but had they suffered any more I think Nemec would've gotten some NHL time; he was playing well enough to deserve it. I don't think there's going to be an argument to keeping Nemec out of the NHL next year if there's an injury except his contract.

Maybe Nemec will have to be bridged in 2026, or maybe Palat will have to be traded or bought out - so be it. Can't plot these things out and certainly cannot worry about them in the day to day operation of the team.

There were few who watched close to all the AHL games. The one guy who did and commented on Nemec gave a bit of a mixed assessment of Nemec as I read it. I don't think he'd quite outgrown the AHL as of the end of last season. Given his age it wouldn't surprise me if he was a better player in September than he was in May and certainly by December. I'd definitely try to bring in a 5-6 right shot defender if it was my call for NJ. If Nemec can move past him so much the better but I don't want to have to rely on a teenager to open the season.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

There were few who watched close to all the AHL games. The one guy who did and commented on Nemec gave a bit of a mixed assessment of Nemec as I read it. I don't think he'd quite outgrown the AHL as of the end of last season. Given his age it wouldn't surprise me if he was a better player in September than he was in May and certainly by December. I'd definitely try to bring in a 5-6 right shot defender if it was my call for NJ. If Nemec can move past him so much the better but I don't want to have to rely on a teenager to open the season.

But even if we bring in an NHL defensemen or even a couple Nemec is very likely going to play in the NHL. I think most people expect us to bring in one defensemen. So Nemec is #8. In such a situation Nemec will most likely play at least 20 games if not way more just because of injuries. It’s was purely due to injury luck that he didn’t play any this season as like our 9th or 10th dman.

Pretty sure that’s all the guy you were responding to meant as well. Not that they couldn’t keep him out because he’s too good for the AHL but that we won’t be able to keep him out just because of injuries.


Edit Add:
For some numbers with this. Rough and maybe imperfect math that doesn’t account for everything but on average about 8.5 Dmen per team played 10 (no ELC slide) or more games.
We were super lucky with injuries and our 8th dman just had exactly 10. And that only happened because they decided to scratch Bahl for him fo a game or two.

But regardless, if we sign one defensmen and Nemec is our #8 he will almost certainly play enough for the ELC not to slide.

 

[Devs3cups]

There were few who watched close to all the AHL games. The one guy who did and commented on Nemec gave a bit of a mixed assessment of Nemec as I read it. I don't think he'd quite outgrown the AHL as of the end of last season. Given his age it wouldn't surprise me if he was a better player in September than he was in May and certainly by December. I'd definitely try to bring in a 5-6 right shot defender if it was my call for NJ. If Nemec can move past him so much the better but I don't want to have to rely on a teenager to open the season.

Yeah, I think Nemec could hold his own in the league for sure, but I would have no issue if they went the Luke route with him (Join the team closer to the end of his D+2 season). He just turned 19. I could see benefits for both.

Regardless, it’s awesome to have 2 young top D-men prospects like that. Abundance of riches.

 

[My3Sons]

But even if we bring in an NHL defensemen or even a couple Nemec is very likely going to play in the NHL. I think most people expect us to bring in one defensemen. So Nemec is #8. In such a situation Nemec will most likely play at least 20 games if not way more just because of injuries. It’s was purely due to injury luck that he didn’t play any this season as like our 9th or 10th dman.

Pretty sure that’s all the guy you were responding to meant as well. Not that they couldn’t keep him out because he’s too good for the AHL but that we won’t be able to keep him out just because of injuries.

That make sense. Maybe they need a veteran righty to stash in the AHL and be the first call up? Maybe Walsh can fill that role? I'm not against Nemec playing in the NHL, and it has nothing to do with his contract for me. It's just whatever is best for his development long term.

 

[Devs3cups]

But even if we bring in an NHL defensemen or even a couple Nemec is very likely going to play in the NHL. I think most people expect us to bring in one defensemen. So Nemec is #8. In such a situation Nemec will most likely play at least 20 games if not way more just because of injuries. It’s was purely due to injury luck that he didn’t play any this season as like our 9th or 10th dman.

Pretty sure that’s all the guy you were responding to meant as well. Not that they couldn’t keep him out because he’s too good for the AHL but that we won’t be able to keep him out just because of injuries.


Edit Add:
For some numbers with this. Rough and maybe imperfect math that doesn’t account for everything but on average about 8.5 Dmen per team played 10 (no ELC slide) or more games.
We were super lucky with injuries and our 8th dman just had exactly 10. And that only happened because they decided to scratch Bahl for him fo a game or two.

But regardless, if we sign one defensmen and Nemec is our #8 he will almost certainly play enough for the ELC not to slide.

100%. Even if he starts in the A, he’ll likely won’t finish the season there.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

That make sense. Maybe they need a veteran righty to stash in the AHL and be the first call up? Maybe Walsh can fill that role? I'm not against Nemec playing in the NHL, and it has nothing to do with his contract for me. It's just whatever is best for his development long term.

I’d prefer he got some NHL games. I’m not a huge believer in AHL development. If he’s capable of playing NHL hockey I think most of the time the best thing for his development is to do so.

 

[My3Sons]

100%. Even if he starts in the A, he’ll likely won’t finish the season there.

That is the scenario I expect but I just hope it develops organically rather than by default.

 

[Devs3cups]

That is the scenario I expect but I just hope it develops organically rather than by default.

No doubt it will. Young D-men won’t be perfect right off the jump but Nemec could hold his own and contribute imo.

 

[My3Sons]

I’d prefer he got some NHL games. I’m not a huge believer in AHL development. If he’s capable of playing NHL hockey I think most of the time the best thing for his development is to do so.

I understand the AHL development issue which we've seen discussed here before. I'll add the caveat that we have few examples of 18 year old AHL defenders to draw from. Putting aside guys who played a modest amount of games (say less than 20) the list of comparable players (according to quant hockey) is more or less Sandin, Nemec, Seider, Bjonfort, Liljegren and it tails off accordingly. Not that many players in the category to really make a fair assessment of the AHL as a development league for teenage defenders. Just my thought.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I understand the AHL development issue which we've seen discussed here before. I'll add the caveat that we have few examples of 18 year old AHL defenders to draw from. Putting aside guys who played a modest amount of games (say less than 20) the list of comparable players (according to quant hockey) is more or less Sandin, Nemec, Seider, Bjonfort, Liljegren and it tails off accordingly. Not that many players in the category to really make a fair assessment of the AHL as a development league for teenage defenders. Just my thought.

It’s less about the AHL in this case then it is about that I think he can play in the NHL that’s probably what’s best for his development.

 

[Forge]

Simon going to get to run the PP in Utica next year. Man's going to be cooking with gas.

 

[Triumph]

There were few who watched close to all the AHL games. The one guy who did and commented on Nemec gave a bit of a mixed assessment of Nemec as I read it. I don't think he'd quite outgrown the AHL as of the end of last season. Given his age it wouldn't surprise me if he was a better player in September than he was in May and certainly by December. I'd definitely try to bring in a 5-6 right shot defender if it was my call for NJ. If Nemec can move past him so much the better but I don't want to have to rely on a teenager to open the season.

I take people who watch lots of minor league hockey with tons of grains of salt - their interest is in the team holding everyone down there as long as possible, and top prospects are always going to be 'flawed' compared to the best NHLers when they get the call.

The Devils might acquire a right-handed D but I expect Nemec to be on the roster to begin the year.

 

[Blackjack]

I take people who watch lots of minor league hockey with tons of grains of salt - their interest is in the team holding everyone down there as long as possible, and top prospects are always going to be 'flawed' compared to the best NHLers when they get the call.

The Devils might acquire a right-handed D but I expect Nemec to be on the roster to begin the year.

Go back and read the things people who “watched Luke closely” at Michigan and what they said about his NHL readiness.

Utter nonsense.

 

[Devs3cups]

We all know about his season, here’s a little highlight package by the Comets!

 

[Hisch13r]

i could see the devils drafting 4 c in the next draft.

Going back through this thread and this one is so funny. It's like Fitz looked at this personally and just said "No"

 

[devilsfan950003]

That make sense. Maybe they need a veteran righty to stash in the AHL and be the first call up? Maybe Walsh can fill that role? I'm not against Nemec playing in the NHL, and it has nothing to do with his contract for me. It's just whatever is best for his development long term.

Walsh was traded to Boston this off-season.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

We all know about his season, here’s a little highlight package by the Comets!

His first AHL goal was beautiful.

Also seems like he is always tying the game.

 

[My3Sons]

Walsh was traded to Boston this off-season.

I posted that in June?