Prospect Info: New Jersey Devils Draft Simon Nemec, 2nd Overall

[Devs3cups]

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing, just watched it. Very cool of him to give some of his time for this. Also enjoyed hearing from some of his former coaches/GM’s.

 

[Classic Devil]

I think we can both sign a RHD and give Nemec a shot. Look at Bahl - he barely played for much of the year, but he eventually got his chance and ran with it. Injuries happen.

 

[devilsblood]

I think we can both sign a RHD and give Nemec a shot. Look at Bahl - he barely played for much of the year, but he eventually got his chance and ran with it. Injuries happen.

Yeah, assuming we bring in a guy, I think Nemec would be the next man up on the right side. So at least 20 games seems pretty likely.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Nemec is getting some love around the blogosphere today. This is Jack Han responding to an Infernal Access post.



Article is here. I don’t know how paywalled IA is, i’m a subscriber. On Simon Nemec's quietly excellent AHL campaign

 

[Cheddabombs]

Nemec is getting some love around the blogosphere today. This is Jack Han responding to an Infernal Access post.



Article is here. I don’t know how paywalled IA is, i’m a subscriber. On Simon Nemec's quietly excellent AHL campaign

Love me some Nemec! Can't wait for him and Luke to be on the team full time, oh my!

 

[Devs3cups]

Behind a paywall and I don’t have a subscription, but here’s a nice excerpt from Cordell’s piece on Infernal Access:

There were so, so, so, many good things going on at the NHL level that not a lot of attention was focused on what was happening elsewhere; like Simon Nemec putting together a remarkably strong rookie season in Utica.

Nemec produced 12 goals and 34 points over 65 games in the AHL. Those numbers might not pop off the page but they should. They’re almost unheard of from such a young defenseman.

Dating back to 2010, only 13 defensemen have spent their 18-year-old campaign as full-timers in the AHL. That list includes highly touted players like Hampus Lindholm, Moritz Seider, Rasmus Sandin, Rasmus Ristolainen (lmao), Timothy Liljegren, Oliver Kylington, and David Jiricek, among others.

None of them generated more shots (138) or goals (12) than Nemec did this season. In fact, Nemec is the only player who found the back of the net more than eight times.

He comes off similarly well in other categories, slotting 2nd – behind only Jiricek – in assists, points, primary points, and points per game.

He had a very good 18-year old season. Over 0.5 PPG is quite something for a D-man in their first pro NA season.

 

[devilsblood]

"Dating back to 2010, only 13 defensemen have spent their 18-year-old campaign as full-timers in the AHL. That list includes highly touted players like Hampus Lindholm, Moritz Seider, Rasmus Sandin, Rasmus Ristolainen (lmao), Timothy Liljegren, Oliver Kylington, and David Jiricek, among others.

None of them generated more shots (138) or goals (12) than Nemec did this season. In fact, Nemec is the only player who found the back of the net more than eight times."

Not to poo poo Nemec's very promising AHL season, but Jiricek is the only guy on that list who played more then 50 AHL games in their d+1, and even he played 10 less then Nemec.

Not sure if Cordell delves deeper in the rest of the article, getting into per game, per/60, or ES rates, but comparing Nemec's overall shot/point totals to guys who played 20 less games isn't telling us much.

 

[Forge]

"Dating back to 2010, only 13 defensemen have spent their 18-year-old campaign as full-timers in the AHL. That list includes highly touted players like Hampus Lindholm, Moritz Seider, Rasmus Sandin, Rasmus Ristolainen (lmao), Timothy Liljegren, Oliver Kylington, and David Jiricek, among others.

None of them generated more shots (138) or goals (12) than Nemec did this season. In fact, Nemec is the only player who found the back of the net more than eight times."

Not to poo poo Nemec's very promising AHL season, but Jiricek is the only guy on that list who played more then 50 AHL games in their d+1, and even he played 10 less then Nemec.

Not sure if Cordell delves deeper in the rest of the article, getting into per game, per/60, or ES rates, but comparing Nemec's overall shot/point totals to guys who played 20 less games isn't telling us much.

His per game point total would be second for 18 year old defensemen in the ahl (sandin first) out of anyone with a reasonable sample size (everyone else ahead of him played 14 games or less with only Drysdale over 6).

If you include 19 year old defensemen, his points per game is still top 10 for anyone with a reasonable sample size as far as I can tell.

Beyond points per game, I have no idea.

 

[devilsblood]

His per game point total would be second for 18 year old defensemen in the ahl (sandin first) out of anyone with a reasonable sample size (everyone else ahead of him played 14 games or less with only Drysdale over 6).

If you include 19 year old defensemen, his points per game is still top 10 for anyone with a reasonable sample size as far as I can tell.

Beyond points per game, I have no idea.

Jiricek's was better. I guess you consider his d+1 his 19 year old season? But he's all of 4 months older then Nemec.

Granted Jiricek did accumalate a lot of points on the PP, while Nemec was primarily ES. Which I think is really the stat to look to if we want to highlight Nemec's production this year. ES pts per game. Not total shots vs guys who played 2/3's the games.

Again, didn't read the whole story, but that irked me a little.

 

[Forge]

Jiricek's was better. I guess you consider his d+1 his 19 year old season? But he's all of 4 months older then Nemec.

Granted Jiricek did accumalate a lot of points on the PP, while Nemec was primarily ES. Which I think is really the stat to look to if we want to highlight Nemec's production this year. ES pts per game. Not total shots vs guys who played 2/3's the games.

Again, didn't read the whole story, but that irked me a little.

Their age season is based on their birthday. Jiriceks season this year was considered his age 19 season, nemecs was considered his age 18 season.

Jiriceks year is included in one of those greater than Nemec's when I expanded to include age 19 players

 

[Guttersniped]

Jiricek's was better. I guess you consider his d+1 his 19 year old season? But he's all of 4 months older then Nemec.

Granted Jiricek did accumalate a lot of points on the PP, while Nemec was primarily ES. Which I think is really the stat to look to if we want to highlight Nemec's production this year. ES pts per game. Not total shots vs guys who played 2/3's the games.

Again, didn't read the whole story, but that irked me a little.

What irks you?

“He comes off similarly well in other categories, slotting 2nd – behind only Jiricek – in assists, points, primary points, and points per game.”

He says that right there in there in the quoted passage.

 

[Eggtimer]

I wonder how long it will take for us to be a net better team with losing Severson and Graves and adding Luke Nemec (Bahl Casey )
We might take a step backwards next year with maybe worse overall team defence but maybe the puck moving ability of the Luke and Nemec will counter or balance it out ?
With potentially 3 rookies in the lineup at once, some mistakes will be made but the upside will be massive. We could very likely have the best D core in the league once they all hit their stride
Luke , Nemec , Hamilton , Marino , Seigenthaler, Bahl , Casey , Vilen ….. looks pretty damn good to me .

 

[TrufleShufle]

I wonder how long it will take for us to be a net better team with losing Severson and Graves and adding Luke Nemec (Bahl Casey )
We might take a step backwards next year with maybe worse overall team defence but maybe the puck moving ability of the Luke and Nemec will counter or balance it out ?
With potentially 3 rookies in the lineup at once, some mistakes will be made but the upside will be massive. We could very likely have the best D core in the league once they all hit their stride
Luke , Nemec , Hamilton , Marino , Seigenthaler, Bahl , Casey , Vilen ….. looks pretty damn good to me .

It'll def be a step back to open up the potential to be way better. It'll take a while though, maybe until late November even.

 

[devilsblood]

What irks you?

“He comes off similarly well in other categories, slotting 2nd – behind only Jiricek – in assists, points, primary points, and points per game.”

He says that right there in there in the quoted passage.

Comparing Nemec's total points to guys who played 20 less games.

Noted it in the previous post, and I alluded to it again in the post to which you responded.

 

[Devs3cups]

Comparing Nemec's total points to guys who played 20 less games.

Noted it in the previous post, and I alluded to it again in the post to which you responded.

Nemec played 10 more games than Jiricek (55 vs 65 GP). Jiricek apprently also had significantly more PP time than Nemec.

One interesting point, as you’ve mentioned, is their PP vs. ES point totals. I was curious and looked it up.

Jiricek had 4 PPG and 20 PPA for 24 points on the PP. 66% of his goals and 63% of his points were on the PP. He had no shorthanded points. He tallied 1.83 shots per game (101 shots in 55GP).

Nemec had 1 PPG and 5 PPA for 6 points on the PP. 8% of his goals and 17% of his points were on the PP. He had 1 SHG. He tallied 2.12 shots per game (138 shots in 65 GP)

There’s no denying that Jiricek had a good season (I also like him as a prospect), but I’m also glad to see Nemec impacting the game in a big way 5v5. That’s a very good sign imo. It’s been mentioned here from people who follow Utica closely that Nemec had limited PP time (especially at the start of the season) and was getting more time on the PK.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

with Luke (and Dougie) here forever basically, I am not as concerned with Nemec's PP numbers. I would (always) rather the guy that produces better at 5 on 5.

 

[devilsblood]

Their age season is based on their birthday. Jiriceks season this year was considered his age 19 season, nemecs was considered his age 18 season.

Jiriceks year is included in one of those greater than Nemec's when I expanded to include age 19 players

Nov b-day for Jiricek, Feb for Nemec. Less then 4 months difference.

Both in their D+1 season.

Nemec had a very good season, and there are plenty of ways to highlight that. I'm just not finding some of these comparisons, and distinctions, as doing that.

 

[Devs3cups]

with Luke (and Dougie) here forever basically, I am not as concerned with Nemec's PP numbers. I would (always) rather the guy that produces better at 5 on 5.

That's a fair point, but I honestly see Nemec as a PP QB someday. His IQ, poise and shot placement/passing from the top make me think he could be very good in the role, maybe even more suited for it than Luke, as I see Luke more as a transition/breakout guy (even though I think Luke'd be good as a QB too. Just too many choices lol, that's a good thing. You could even use Luke as a "forward" on the PP maybe?).

Maybe down the line Simon takes Dougie's spot there, or they run 2 D-men on one of the 2 units.

 

[devilsblood]

with Luke (and Dougie) here forever basically, I am not as concerned with Nemec's PP numbers. I would (always) rather the guy that produces better at 5 on 5.

And Utica had a vet in Walsh who was good on the PP.

And I agree I find his ES production as more encouraging then what Jiricek did.

But I do think Nemec could be the best PP d-man on NJ 3-4 years down the line. Hamilton being older, and himself more a shooter then a QB, while Hughes's skating strength is more an ES focus then a PP focus. Not predicting it, but it's possible.

I actually think that's an interesting little debate to have.

 

[Devs3cups]

And Utica had a vet in Walsh who was good on the PP.

And I agree I find his ES production as more encouraging then what Jiricek did.

But I do think Nemec could be the best PP d-man on NJ 3-4 years down the line. Hamilton being older, and himself more a shooter then a QB, while Hughes's skating strength is more an ES focus then a PP focus. Not predicting it, but it's possible.

I actually think that's an interesting little debate to have.

PP1:

Jack - Nico - Timo

Luke​

​

Nemec (QB)​

------------------------------------

PP2:

Holtz - Haula - Mercer

Bratt​

​

Dougie (QB)​

​

Looks nasty to me

 

[Forge]

Nov b-day for Jiricek, Feb for Nemec. Less then 4 months difference.

Both in their D+1 season.

Nemec had a very good season, and there are plenty of ways to highlight that. I'm just not finding some of these comparisons, and distinctions, as doing that.

That's why you include what is categorized as 19 year old seasons as some will similarly be in their d+1 season. But some will be in there d+2. I don't make the rules on what is considered their age whatever season, just relaying how these seasons were structured for cataloguing purposes.

He still files as a top ten points per game defender even when accounting for that.

You asked for something other than counting stats as that seemed to be your complaint on the article, so I provided you with where he stood in ppg rates for 18 and 19 year olds

 

[Forge]

And ftr, I do agree that highlighting counting stats may not be the best methodology for showing the quality of his play if you're comparing him to guys with 20 games.

However, the truth is that there isn't a huge sample to pull from.

If I did it right, I have 31 defenders who played at least 40 games in their age 19 season. I have an additional 10 who played 40 games or more in the ahl as an 18 year old.

So we are only talking 41 guys with that kind of sample in the ahl for what should cover their d+1 season.

His points per game would be 6th in that sampling as far as I can tell

 

[devilsblood]

And ftr, I do agree that highlighting counting stats may not be the best methodology for showing the quality of his play if you're comparing him to guys with 20 games.

However, the truth is that there isn't a huge sample to pull from.

If I did it right, I have 31 defenders who played at least 40 games in their age 19 season. I have an additional 10 who played 40 games or more in the ahl as an 18 year old.

So we are only talking 41 guys with that kind of sample in the ahl for what should cover their d+1 season.

His points per game would be 6th in that sampling as far as I can tell

Now that wasn't that hard was it?

I think the fact that there is such a small sample is a very good sign to begin with.

Another good sign is how much he played on the PK. I'm guessing here but I bet he's near the top of this group in terms of PK toi/game.

 

[Forge]

Now that wasn't that hard was it?

I mean, I referenced it in my very first response to you

His per game point total would be second for 18 year old defensemen in the ahl (sandin first) out of anyone with a reasonable sample size (everyone else ahead of him played 14 games or less with only Drysdale over 6).

If you include 19 year old defensemen, his points per game is still top 10 for anyone with a reasonable sample size as far as I can tell.

Beyond points per game, I have no idea.

Though I suppose you could be referring to " not too hard" for Cordell to have framed the article in that light and not be talking about my replies now that I think of it lol

 

[devilsblood]

I mean, I referenced it in my very first response to you



Though I suppose you could be referring to " not too hard" for Cordell to have framed the article in that light and not be talking about my replies now that I think of it lol

I was busting your chops.

But yeah Cordell.