I would start by saying that I think the Leafs would really go hard after Domi since he is really the only one who can, with any kind of decent chance, fill our 3C and 2PP center hole in UFA; Bertuzzi can't play center, Rodrigues shouldn't be playing center, the rest of the UFA centers are nowhere near good enough or won't come here (Bergeron and Krejci), Keefe didn't have much of an appetite for Jarnkrok at center, Lafferty was bad at center, and if we are putting Holmberg there, then we have some issues.
Then we need one more guy...
Scanning the market, Tomas Nosek, Mason Shaw, and Axel Jonsson-Fjallby are still decent options out there for our shutdown line. Suter, Fischer, ZAR, and Motte are also still out there as well.
Conversely, if we look at offensive winger options, there are guys like Rodrigues and reclamation projects like Yamamoto, Gurianov, and maybe Comtois. Boqvist, Sundqvist, Suter, Ritchie, and Erne just don't do enough for me to prefer them over just putting Reaves there and then double shifting Nylander on that line.
I think it makes more sense to get a shutdown guy. Nosek is solid, and Shaw/AJF have some solid upside (although Shaw has major injury concerns). We need another PKer up front as well, and most of those options are solid enough PKers.
Meanwhile, if we get Domi, we probably do not need to add another PP forward, so we can afford to use Reaves on that line and just double shift Nylander (or Jarnkrok or Marner) at ES to make it all work.
Knies - Matthews - Marner
Jarnkrok - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Domi - Reaves/Nylander
Nosek - Kampf - Lafferty
Defensively, who really knows. Keefe is going to have his hands full figuring out how to make that defense work with Klingberg on it. I assume Liljegren is getting a lot more PK responsibilities to make up for Holl leaving? Rielly is also a sneaky good PKer but we do not have any RHD PKers at that point.
Rielly - Barrie did work decently well under Keefe back in 2019-2020, but that puts a lot of pressure on the other pairings to step up in the tough minutes and who knows if they can handle it. Otherwise, are we sheltering a Gio-Klingberg pairing and then having a top 4 of McCabe, Brodie, Rielly, Liljegren? If we trust Liljegren to step up, it could work. There would be issues if we ever wanted to rotate in Timmins for Gio though, because who knows if Timmins is ready for any kind of serious defensive responsibility at this point, and he'd need to handle it.
Rielly - Liljegren
McCabe - Brodie
Giordano - Klingberg
Timmins
PP1: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly
PP2: Domi, Knies, Jarnkrok, Robertson, Klingberg
PK Forwards: Kampf, Marner, Lafferty, Jarnkrok, Nosek, Robertson/Knies
PK Defensemen: McCabe, Giordano, Brodie, Liljegren, Rielly (#5).
I think we sacrificed a lot of flexibility and overall effectiveness just for a little bit more offense from the back end (unless Klingberg really explodes) and an enforcer who can't play more than 8 minutes a night anymore.