New GM Trades and Signings Part 2

[Jimmy Firecracker]

You need to use Cap %, not dollars.

Dollars is not, nor was it ever relevant.

Pasta 8.89%
Nylander 8.76%
Ehlers 8.00%

Alright, if we go by cap percentage then Nylander barely falls in between, falling a few percentage points behind Pastrnak but came out way ahead of Ehlers despite not scoring as many goals and falling 3 points short of Ehlers career high at the time. That’s still a bad outcome.

An actual in-between would’ve seen Nylander making like 8.4% of the cap at the time for an AAV of $6.678 million. That still would’ve given him a higher AAV than the superior Pastrnak and he’d still come out far ahead of Ehlers despite being on near equal footing.

 

[The Podium]

Alright, if we go by cap percentage then Nylander barely falls in between, falling a few percentage points behind Pastrnak but came out way ahead of Ehlers despite not scoring as many goals and falling 3 points short of Ehlers career high at the time. That’s still a bad outcome.

Ehlers signed the same off-season as Pastrnak (Oct 2017 vs Sep 2017). He was coming off a single 60 point season, while Willy signed after 2 60 point seasons.

Willy also proved to be significantly better than Ehlers over the life of those contracts.

 

[Fogelhund]

Alright, if we go by cap percentage then Nylander barely falls in between, falling a few percentage points behind Pastrnak but came out way ahead of Ehlers despite not scoring as many goals and falling 3 points short of Ehlers career high at the time. That’s still a bad outcome.

An actual in-between would’ve seen Nylander making like 8.4% of the cap at the time for an AAV of $6.678 million. That still would’ve given him a higher AAV than the superior Pastrnak and he’d still come out far ahead of Ehlers despite being on near equal footing.

Ehlers career high was 24 goals to Nylanders 22. Nylander had .729 Points per game, Ehlers 0.66 points per game, Pasta 0.715.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Ehlers signed the same off-season as Pastrnak (Oct 2017 vs Sep 2017). He was coming off a single 60 point season, while Willy signed after 2 60 point seasons.

Yeah and then he managed to do it again. If Willy’s whole thing was that he did it twice when Ehlers did it once before signing, that still doesn’t justify a near million dollar higher AAV.

Willy also proved to be significantly better than Ehlers over the life of those contracts.

Good for Nylander, but that wasn’t anywhere close to true at the time.

 

[Fogelhund]

Yeah and then he managed to do it again. If Willy’s whole thing was that he did it twice when Ehlers did it once before signing, that still doesn’t justify a near million dollar higher AAV.



Good for Nylander, but that wasn’t anywhere close to true at the time.

Ehlers 0.66 points per game at signing. Nylander 0.72.

 

[SprDaVE]

Crazy how newly acquired players on other teams just jump at the chance of extending with their new team, usually at very fair value but the players here that have been playing on a team that hasn't missed the playoffs since they've been around won't commit unless they are given either short term deals so that they can earn even more money or are given way above market value.... or both.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Ehlers career high was 24 goals to Nylanders 22. Nylander had .729 Points per game, Ehlers 0.66 points per game, Pasta 0.715.

If we’re using career highs in goals and points percentage, then Willy should not make more than Tkachuk, who’s sitting at 0.96 points per game with a career high of 42 goals, while Nylander is 0.82 points per game with a career high of 40 goals. Despite this, Willy is asking for $10 million a season while Matthew makes $9.5 million a season (against the cap anyway).

Cap percentage, Tkachuk took up 11.5% of the cap last season. 11.5% of this $83.5 million cap would be $9.6 million, which is too much for Willy since he comes out behind Tkachuk in terms of PPG and career high in goals and points.

Of course I’m sure Nylander’s camp will say that the cap is going to jump exponentially next season so actually he should be making 11% of whatever the f*** it’s going to be in 2024-25, whether it’s $87 million or whatever. But if that’s true then I guess Tkachuk is an idiot to not sign a one year or two year deal before the cap was about to jump, unless of course his main priority isn’t wringing every dollar he can out of the franchise he plays for and is instead to stay long term in a place he likes that will see success while still making a shit ton of money.

 

[andora]

I was thinking

1st
Sale
Bjorkstrand
Larsson

Wright is a nice kid...we have enough of those.

I dont see us getting that much

Bjorkstrand
1st or prospect
2nd or roster player (less impact than a larsson)

 

[Smif]

JT was 77th in the league in even strength goals and in the 30s for total goals/points while being almost top 5 for cap hits. When league scoring is way up point per game doesn't have the same meaning it once did.

Don't think I'd want to pay him 7.5 million in 2 years when he is like 34

I'd argue that, yes, league scoring was up, but, our team scoring was down, was it not? We scored less this year but also prevented less, so our team style changed.

 

[Fogelhund]

If we’re using career highs in goals and points percentage, then Willy should not make more than Tkachuk, who’s sitting at 0.96 points per game with a career high of 42 goals, while Nylander is 0.82 points per game with a career high of 40 goals. Despite this, Willy is asking for $10 million a season while Matthew makes $9.5 million a season (against the cap anyway).

Cap percentage, Tkachuk took up 11.5% of the cap last season. 11.5% of this $83.5 million cap would be $9.6 million, which is too much for Willy since he comes out behind Tkachuk in terms of PPG and career high in goals and points.

Of course I’m sure Nylander’s camp will say that the cap is going to jump exponentially next season so actually he should be making 11% of whatever the f*** it’s going to be in 2024-25, whether it’s $87 million or whatever. But if that’s true then I guess Tkachuk is an idiot to not sign a one year or two year deal before the cap was about to jump, unless of course his main priority isn’t wringing every dollar he can out of the franchise he plays for and is instead to stay long term in a place he likes that will see success while still making a shit ton of money.

You only count points pre contract, so Tkachuk is 0.88 which is still above Nylander's 0.82.

But your point still stands, and is correct. So is your point about the cap likely being $87.5 mil when his contract would take effect. EvolvingHockey has his contract at $9.6 mil x 8 years. If we could get him in around $9.2 mil x 8 years, that would be a pretty good contract for us.

 

[Dreakmur]

We're already discussing a significant sample size, and the sample size actually helps smooth out the differences in things like that.
There's nothing to indicate any kind of significant difference in quality of competition, or resulting impacts on their production.

Just because we watch Keefe butcher matchups game after game doesn’t mean other coaches don’t do a good job.

If all of the players on the PP with him were worse than him, he'd likely have fewer points, but that's not what we're discussing. The difference of 1 or 2 extra players being comparable to him instead of worse than him increases the overall PP's effectiveness, but likely doesn't have a significant inflationary effect on his individual production, as it simultaneously creates a countering deflationary effect.

That’s exactly what we’re discussing. The context surrounding the raw numbers.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Moar trades pls

 

[WillNy29]

No we did not dominate them....many shots from the outside with barely any rebounds. physically pummeled....did you even watch the games?

I feel like the outside without rebounds thing can be and has been disproven

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Any interest in Toews as the 3rd line C if he's healthy. motivated and willing to sign dirt cheap contract or is he too washed at this point?

View attachment 727629

God I would love him here...but I think he has bigger things to worry about than hockey atm.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just because we watch Keefe butcher matchups game after game doesn’t mean other coaches don’t do a good job.

Keefe doesn't "butcher matchups", and this isn't really about whether they're doing a good job at coaching.

That’s exactly what we’re discussing.

No, that is not Debrincat's situation.

 

[Menzinger]

Personally I'm still expecting an extension for Nylander to be the ultimate outcome. The only thing consistent with the media reports is there really hasn't been much leaks or anything tangible to report on.

Unfortunately, if that extension doesn't end up happening the Nylander trade market is looking weaker now. Seattle probably still the best bet if it happens. Though I can see the leafs potentially looking for a mid season trade too if need be

 

[TMLAM34]

If we can’t agree to an extension with Nylander, I wouldn’t mind something like this.

To Toronto: Shane Wright + Brandon Tanev (50% retained) + 1st Round Draft Pick
To Seattle: William Nylander

Ideally Wright can develop into a good second line center behind Matthews and allow Tavares to move to the wing. Tanev provides some much needed physicality in the bottom six and we either use the 1st in another deal or keep it. Lines with the new players above (Tavares taking faceoffs still in key situations):

Tavares - Wright - Marner
Tanev - Kampf - Reaves

Then flip one of our 1st round draft picks for help on the blueline.

To Toronto: Connor Murphy
To Chicago: Matt Murray + 1st Round Draft Pick

Rielly - Murphy

 

[ToneDog]

You only count points pre contract, so Tkachuk is 0.88 which is still above Nylander's 0.82.

But your point still stands, and is correct. So is your point about the cap likely being $87.5 mil when his contract would take effect. EvolvingHockey has his contract at $9.6 mil x 8 years. If we could get him in around $9.2 mil x 8 years, that would be a pretty good contract for us.

And if the cap does not rise to 87.5m does Willie return the difference? Hell why doesn't he negotiate based on the cap for the following year when it is projected to be 90+m. Based on playoff embarrassments these guys have no shame. It's all about the money and it is why they should have been moved before July 1st.

 

[Dreakmur]

Keefe doesn't "butcher matchups", and this isn't really about whether they're doing a good job at coaching.

Keefe absolutely does butcher matchups. That’s one of the various reasons he should have been fired, and still should be fired.

It is about coaches doing a good job, because utilizing advantageous match-ups is part of that.

No, that is not Debrincat's situation.

Nylander plays with better players than DeBrincat. That’s not even debatable. I’d be shocked that you’d take the stance that the leafs aren’t elite, but as has been shown in the past, your stances are completely malleable and adjust to support whatever argument you’ve decided on any particular day.

 

[CelticDruid]

8 more years of Nylander? At almost $10m? He'll be 28 when the extension kicks in meaning we'd be paying him that until he's 36.

I'd rather trade him while his value is super high for younger assets or a top D-man. Knies will help offset the production that Willie was giving us while playing a stronger 200ft game.

Knies might start the season on the Marlies.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Knies might start the season on the Marlies.

4 points in 7 playoff games. If he's on the marlies with that cheap elc than we're fckd

 

[CelticDruid]

4 points in 7 playoff games. If he's on the marlies with that cheap elc than we're fckd

Small sample size.

Maybe third line duties.

 

[keonsbitterness]

And if the cap does not rise to 87.5m does Willie return the difference? Hell why doesn't he negotiate based on the cap for the following year when it is projected to be 90+m.

Matthews reportedly is already doing that, so Willy can just sit back and wait until that contract is signed.

 

[ULF_55]

If we’re using career highs in goals and points percentage, then Willy should not make more than Tkachuk, who’s sitting at 0.96 points per game with a career high of 42 goals, while Nylander is 0.82 points per game with a career high of 40 goals. Despite this, Willy is asking for $10 million a season while Matthew makes $9.5 million a season (against the cap anyway).

Cap percentage, Tkachuk took up 11.5% of the cap last season. 11.5% of this $83.5 million cap would be $9.6 million, which is too much for Willy since he comes out behind Tkachuk in terms of PPG and career high in goals and points.

Of course I’m sure Nylander’s camp will say that the cap is going to jump exponentially next season so actually he should be making 11% of whatever the f*** it’s going to be in 2024-25, whether it’s $87 million or whatever. But if that’s true then I guess Tkachuk is an idiot to not sign a one year or two year deal before the cap was about to jump, unless of course his main priority isn’t wringing every dollar he can out of the franchise he plays for and is instead to stay long term in a place he likes that will see success while still making a shit ton of money.

Nylander doesn't have to sign until he knows what the Cap is.
Have they ever delayed announcing the Cap until after July?
And again, it doesn't matter Matthews and Nylander are not under any schedule to sign a new deal.
So I suggest they both wait until the new Cap amount is announced that way everyone can stop worrying.

 

[Fogelhund]

Nylander plays with better players than DeBrincat. That’s not even debatable. I’d be shocked that you’d take the stance that the leafs aren’t elite, but as has been shown in the past, your stances are completely malleable and adjust to support whatever argument you’ve decided on any particular day.

Patrick Kane wasn’t elite when Cat played with him?

And if the cap does not rise to 87.5m does Willie return the difference? Hell why doesn't he negotiate based on the cap for the following year when it is projected to be 90+m. Based on playoff embarrassments these guys have no shame. It's all about the money and it is why they should have been moved before July 1st.

A chance to express anger, without looking at what was said. I get it.