New GM Trades and Signings Part 2

[andora]

Looking at the Ottawa return I think the Leafs just start looking like Nylander as a 1 year rental that cost a conditional 1st, 4th and prospect(what they did not get). If they sign him at some point great, if not how many draft picks and young players did Dubas give up for players for half the time and much less skilled.

I dont understand this own rental thing.. never have it is such buzz talk. This is the type of shit guys sit around in a meeting rambling on eventually convincing themselves of something that isnt there

In this case we get to pretend we paid those pieces and added a one year contract.. that is so inane. If they do sign him or make a great trade .. good stuff but fabricating fluff context to soften tye blow of a potentially shitty situation is pointless

A decision needs to be made before training camp and it has to do with signing him or trading him - run the business

He probably does fit, but I wonder with the number of UFA D man still available, does it make sense to give up assets, to bring in a guy who would be a 7/8 at this point?

2024 NHL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NHL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

A guy like Patrick Nemeth brings some size, hits, blocks shots.. would come in a league min and wouldn't cost anything to trade for. Or Caleb Jones. What about Cal Foote? Big dude, still motivated to make the NHL, and he's a UFA. I've even wondered about bringing Dermott back... he knows the system, might help with the Marlies, but would be effective as an 8th guy, in case of injuries.

Even if it is depth the player still has to be able to move the puck - our system is so twisted anyway but if it is what we are sticking with i dont care for nemeth or foote (i dont trust our pro development for foote) .. jones may work

 

[ER89]

9 x 8 seems pretty fair for both sides.

its like both sides learned nothing from the past.

8 and 10.2.

Go at 9 give him a a full NMC and for 8 years and call it a f***ing day.

For at least half those years the contract will be a good value for the leafs, 2 -3 will be fair and 1-2 will be overpaid.

Matthews needs to chill the f*** out though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It was behind them, which means he wasn’t facing the top checkers.

There wouldn't be a meaningful difference in quality of competition between these players. The idea that X always matches up with Y and W always matches up with Z isn't really accurate, especially in the regular season.

Being part of an elite PP pads your stats.

Nylander isn't just part of an elite PP. He is an elite PP player that helps make our PP elite.

 

[Morguee]

I dont understand this own rental thing.. never have it is such buzz talk. This is the type of shit guys sit around in a meeting rambling on eventually convincing themselves of something that isnt there

In this case we get to pretend we paid those pieces and added a one year contract.. that is so inane. If they do sign him or make a great trade .. good stuff but fabricating fluff context to soften tye blow of a potentially shitty situation is pointless

A decision needs to be made before training camp and it has to do with signing him or trading him - run the business


Even if it is depth the player still has to be able to move the puck - our system is so twisted anyway but if it is what we are sticking with i dont care for nemeth or foote (i dont trust our pro development for foote) .. jones may work

By calling it a own rental you simply placate people who think you have to get something for him and losing him for nothing after a year of service bad business. These same people would take the assets you get from him and trade for a player at trade deadline with similar or probably less skill and then lose said player at the end of the year. It is just pure optics.

 

[andora]

By calling it a own rental you simply placate people who think you have to get something for him and losing him for nothing after a year of service bad business. These same people would take the assets you get from him and trade for a player at trade deadline with similar or probably less skill and then lose said player at the end of the year. It is just pure optics.

agree with you

it drives me nuts

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Nylander isn't just part of an elite PP. He is an elite PP player that helps make our PP elite.

I would argue he's underutilized on the PP as well. Our best entry guy, and our 2nd best shot after AM.

It will be a breath of fresh air to have Klingberg on the PP as another shot threat, should open up ice that was usually clogged because defenders didn't care if Mo shot it.

 

[Dreakmur]

There wouldn't be a meaningful difference in quality of competition between these players. The idea that X always matches up with Y and W always matches up with Z isn't really accurate, especially in the regular season.

I didn’t say always, but every team in the league would think Matthews/Marner is the bigger threat and would make an effort to match their better defenders against that line. That doesn’t mean every shift, but it does mean more… and yes, it would be substantial.

Nylander isn't just part of an elite PP. He is an elite PP player that helps make our PP elite.

Does that diminish the boost his stats would get?

Playing with better players helps your stats without you actually being a better player.

 

[thusk]

Lets make a small game... 5v5 of different player last 3 year... can you name me who are those player without cheating and go watch stats to find them

205 52 goal 63 assist
210 game 53 goal 62 assist
201gm 44 goal 7 assist
204 55 goal 59 assist
204 gm 44 goal 67 assist
214 game 51 goal 64 assist
183 game 42 goal 66 assist
198 gm 43 goal 64 assist
178 gm 35 goal 65 assist

Most of that sample wasn't with Matthews or Marner, and Nylander wasn't being pulled along offensively by Tavares over that stretch.

But a significant amount less than Debrincat, which impacts his raw production. Debrincat had the 5th most PP time in the league over that stretch.
At the rate Nylander produces on the PP, that difference in PP time alone would have boosted Nylander to 1.06 P/GP, compared to Debrincat's 0.93. A significant gap.

I gonna help you

Guentzel, keller, scheifele, schamaltz, fiala, bratt, hyman, bunting not necessairly in thar order...

If you have to spend 9-10M on nylander, sorry... just trade him 1v1 vs lindholm whos producing at the same rate at 5v5, little less on pp but whos a center whos better in every other aspect of the game... extremely solid defensivly, who can play a lot of minute on pk, you can shutdown best offensive weapon and play on all defensive situation.

A player you can use as much trailing late like leading late, pp like pk and a player eho will never put you in trouble... leafs would be a much better team with lindholm than nylander at same salary...

 

[WTFMAN99]

He probably does fit, but I wonder with the number of UFA D man still available, does it make sense to give up assets, to bring in a guy who would be a 7/8 at this point?

2024 NHL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NHL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

A guy like Patrick Nemeth brings some size, hits, blocks shots.. would come in a league min and wouldn't cost anything to trade for. Or Caleb Jones. What about Cal Foote? Big dude, still motivated to make the NHL, and he's a UFA. I've even wondered about bringing Dermott back... he knows the system, might help with the Marlies, but would be effective as an 8th guy, in case of injuries.

Cal Foote for 1-2 year deal at 1.05M 1-way deal and sending him the AHL might be a decent move...

 

[Dekes For Days]

I didn’t say always, but every team in the league would think Matthews/Marner is the bigger threat and would make an effort to match their better defenders against that line..

Matchups get a lot more mixed up throughout a regular season than a lot of people think. Different teams have different strategies on how to approach matchups (for example, some like to match offense to offense, some just like to let things roll, etc.), and they'll all have different depth of quality within their lineup, spend half of their time without last change, be impacted by game situations, etc. There wouldn't be a meaningful difference in quality of competition between these players.
Debrincat played behind better players than him last year, and he just did worse.

Does that diminish the boost his stats would get? Playing with better players helps your stats without you actually being a better player.

He's not so much playing with better PP players as much as he is an elite PP player playing with comparably good PP players - at least when not shifted onto PP2 with the leftovers.
While the number of quality players on the PP may lift the overall PP, there are diminishing returns to this on the PP, and it's also having the effect of limiting his touches.
Notice how Debrincat also played on a good PP stacked with good offensive players last year and produced at a worse rate because his IPP dropped.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Cal Foote for 1-2 year deal at 1.05M 1-way deal and sending him the AHL might be a decent move...

Wouldn't mind taking a flyer but no way he passes through waivers here.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I gonna help you
Guentzel, keller, scheifele, schamaltz, fiala, bratt, hyman, bunting not necessairly in thar order...

And what relevance do they have to anything, exactly?

 

[Dreakmur]

Matchups get a lot more mixed up throughout a regular season than a lot of people think. Different teams have different strategies on how to approach matchups (for example, some like to match offense to offense, some just like to let things roll, etc.), and they'll all have different depth of quality within their lineup, spend half of their time without last change, be impacted by game situations, etc. There wouldn't be a meaningful difference in quality of competition between these players.
Debrincat played behind better players than him last year, and he just did worse.

Just because it gets mixed up doesn’t mean there isn’t a trend. I though you were all about sample sizes, it is that only when it supports your argument?

He's not so much playing with better PP players as much as he is an elite PP player playing with comparably good PP players - at least when not shifted onto PP2 with the leftovers.
While the number of quality players on the PP may lift the overall PP, there are diminishing returns to this on the PP, and it's also having the effect of limiting his touches.
Notice how Debrincat also played on a good PP stacked with good offensive players last year and produced at a worse rate because his IPP dropped.

If he played with worse players, he’d have fewer points.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Some leaf fans just don't want Nylander for another 8 years.

I speak on behalf of those fans.

 

[Fogelhund]

Cal Foote for 1-2 year deal at 1.05M 1-way deal and sending him the AHL might be a decent move...

Wouldn't mind taking a flyer but no way he passes through waivers here.

I kind of like that idea. At $1.05 mil, it isn't minimum dollars, so it is a bit of a disincentive for teams to claim him off waivers, particularly a two year deal.

As far as the risk of him passing through waivers... well, he's a UFA, and it's 10 days into Free Agency. I can't imagine he's getting the offers he wants, or a one way deal. If you put him on waivers at the beginning of the year, well very few teams have injury issues at that point... so he's unlikely to get claimed the first time. If he comes up for injury replacement, then we have a challenge.. but that is a risk you have to take in these circumstances... but guys like Dermott, and Foote are on the outside looking in right now. I think they are decent depth at worst, and we can afford to pay them.

Some leaf fans just don't want Nylander for another 8 years.

I speak on behalf of those fans.

Was there even a nomination process?

If the DeBrincat trade was any guide, getting full value at this point could be quite difficult... and to move out a Nylander for a pile of meh isn't ideal either. I'm always up for improving the team.. but it has to actually be team improvement.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I kind of like that idea. At $1.05 mil, it isn't minimum dollars, so it is a bit of a disincentive for teams to claim him off waivers, particularly a two year deal.

As far as the risk of him passing through waivers... well, he's a UFA, and it's 10 days into Free Agency. I can't imagine he's getting the offers he wants, or a one way deal. If you put him on waivers at the beginning of the year, well very few teams have injury issues at that point... so he's unlikely to get claimed the first time. If he comes up for injury replacement, then we have a challenge.. but that is a risk you have to take in these circumstances... but guys like Dermott, and Foote are on the outside looking in right now. I think they are decent depth at worst, and we can afford to pay them.



Was there even a nomination process?

If the DeBrincat trade was any guide, getting full value at this point could be quite difficult... and to move out a Nylander for a pile of meh isn't ideal either. I'm always up for improving the team.. but it has to actually be team improvement.

Our LD depth is kinda poor, Dermott at 900k 1-way or something is also something I am okay with.

 

[ULF_55]

And what relevance do they have to anything, exactly?

McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Crosby, Malkin, Pastrnak, Kucherov

Maybe that clears it up?

 

[ULF_55]

There wouldn't be a meaningful difference in quality of competition between these players. The idea that X always matches up with Y and W always matches up with Z isn't really accurate, especially in the regular season.

Not to you, but seems some are suggesting the Leafs never have last change?

 

[Fogelhund]

Our LD depth is kinda poor, Dermott at 900k 1-way or something is also something I am okay with.

Yup...and if we must trade Nylander, I'm still looking at Seattle, and a deal based around Larsson, Bjorkstrand and Wright, plus pick for Nylander + Brodie. It brings in the D physicality that we need, opens up cap, Bjork is an adequate second line winger, and gives us a potential 2nd line C replacement for Tavares in time.

Doing that deal, moving Murray.. we have the cap room to sign Dermott, Foote and Comtois... and we don't even have to send them all down.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just because it gets mixed up doesn’t mean there isn’t a trend. I though you were all about sample sizes

We're already discussing a significant sample size, and the sample size actually helps smooth out the differences in things like that.
There's nothing to indicate any kind of significant difference in quality of competition, or resulting impacts on their production.

If he played with worse players, he’d have fewer points.

If all of the players on the PP with him were worse than him, he'd likely have fewer points, but that's not what we're discussing. The difference of 1 or 2 extra players being comparable to him instead of worse than him increases the overall PP's effectiveness, but likely doesn't have a significant inflationary effect on his individual production, as it simultaneously creates a countering deflationary effect.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yup...and if we must trade Nylander, I'm still looking at Seattle, and a deal based around Larsson, Bjorkstrand and Wright, plus pick for Nylander + Brodie. It brings in the D physicality that we need, opens up cap, Bjork is an adequate second line winger, and gives us a potential 2nd line C replacement for Tavares in time.

Doing that deal, moving Murray.. we have the cap room to sign Dermott, Foote and Comtois... and we don't even have to send them all down.

I was thinking

1st
Sale
Bjorkstrand
Larsson

Wright is a nice kid...we have enough of those.

 

[Fogelhund]

I was thinking

1st
Sale
Bjorkstrand
Larsson

Wright is a nice kid...we have enough of those.

I was hoping Sale would drop to us, he'd be a great add to the system. I just like Wright in the deal due to being a C. I think developing the next 2C is a real need for us. I'd love to have Sale though, that's for sure.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Nylander contract fell right in between Pastrnak and Ehlers last time… how did the comparables not work?

I had to make sure I wasn’t misremembering and no I’m definitely not. What do you mean Nylander’s contract fell in between? Pasta signed a year earlier at 6 years, $40 million for an AAV of $6.66. Ehlers signed the same off-season as Willy for 7 years, $42 million for an AAV of $6 million even.

Willy? He signed for 6 years, $45 million with an AAV of $6.9 million. That’s not between them, he very clearly got paid more than both, on a shorter deal than Ehlers to boot. When Pasta signed that deal he was coming off a 34 goal, 70 point season. Ehlers had a 29 goal, 60 point season. Nylander was coming off a 20 goa, 61 point season.

Based on their stat lines the seasons before they signed their extensions, Willy should’ve signed a contract that had him at an AAV between $6-6.5 million. He wasn’t as good as Pasta and he was about even with Ehlers. Instead, Willy ended up signing the most lucrative deal out of all of them.

I stand by my point that comparables did Jack shit last time if they even played into negotiations at all.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I was hoping Sale would drop to us, he'd be a great add to the system. I just like Wright in the deal due to being a C. I think developing the next 2C is a real need for us. I'd love to have Sale though, that's for sure.

Yea...I am all about getting the next centre too but not sure if he's the guy. Crazy thing is if he's not on an NHL roster again I think that he has to go back to Jr.

 

[Fogelhund]

I had to make sure I wasn’t misremembering and no I’m definitely not. What do you mean Nylander’s contract fell in between? Pasta signed a year earlier at 6 years, $40 million for an AAV of $6.66. Ehlers signed the same off-season as Willy for 7 years, $42 million for an AAV of $6 million even.

Willy? He signed for 6 years, $45 million with an AAV of $6.9 million. That’s not between them, he very clearly got paid more than both, on a shorter deal than Ehlers to boot. When Pasta signed that deal he was coming off a 34 goal, 70 point season. Ehlers had a 29 goal, 60 point season. Nylander was coming off a 20 goa, 61 point season.

Based on their stat lines the seasons before they signed their extensions, Willy should’ve signed a contract that had him at an AAV between $6-6.5 million. He wasn’t as good as Pasta and he was about even with Ehlers. Instead, Willy ended up signing the most lucrative deal out of all of them.

You need to use Cap %, not dollars.

Dollars is not, nor was it ever relevant.

Pasta 8.89%
Nylander 8.76%
Ehlers 8.00%