New GM Trades and Signings Part 2

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Some Toronto Maple Leafs notes from Pagnotta:

- Nylander is looking for a $10M AAV on a new contract, the Leafs are looking more at $8.5M

- Nothing is close between Auston Matthews and the Leafs, Matthews will not take anything more then 5 years

- Brodie and Robertson are potentially being shopped

- Leafs may include Nicholas Robertson as a "sweetener" in a Murray trade if they don't buy him out



Matthews is getting done. Hopefully 5 years at least and no more then 13... its crazy to me he even gets that comparatively to others but it'll be around there most likely and Leafs can't lose their number 1C.

Nylander (if he isn't traded) it should get done around 9.25 tops. Seems there is middle ground there but Leafs may need to go another way to round out the team.

Brodie going is stupid unless it's a package with him and you get a younger version of him basically.
 
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Big Tavares issue is Keefe/Dubas have used him as a grinder/forechecker on his line, which is not ideal.

He's either surrounded by floaters like Nylander (not an insult by the way), or ineffective guys like Kerfoot.

He needs a Hyman or Bertuzzi.
His game definitely crashed in 2019 which was the year he either got old or connects to the new coach. We will never know for sure I guess. I was really looking forward to seeing what he could do under someone else.
 
Matthews is getting done. Hopefully 5 years at least and no more then 13... its crazy to me he even gets that comparatively to others but it'll be around there most likely and Leafs can't lose their number 1C.

Nylander (if he isn't traded) it should get done around 9.25 tops. Seems there is middle ground there but Leafs may need to go another way to round out the team.

Brodie going is stupid unless it's a package with him and you get a younger version of him basically.
I think I might be the only one who is good with the 5 years from Matthew’s.
 
Great wholistic stats with a pretty large margins of error. Should be good enough to distinguish Great to good to mediocre though
Like many of the advanced stats models people compare players who have such similar values that the error is larger than the difference in values, meaning you can't actually draw any conclusions. Also I think many of the advanced stats aren't meant to be used on the individual player comparrsion level
 
I think I might be the only one who is good with the 5 years from Matthew’s.
I think 5 years is okay. I think he's silly for not doing 8 though and thinking he's going to try and get another big contract. That's why it might only be 3 years.

He's looking at that cap going up by then quite a bit. So my bet is shorter (3 years) so he'll still be worth more when he's around 28 or 29. If he does 5 that's where if you're the Leafs it may be the end of the road for him. A lot can happen in 5 years though.

We can't afford to lose him but it's frustrating he looks at the money quite a bit. I want to just hear our guys talk about championships and taking less but not allowed on the Leafs I guess.

Still at this point other then 3 to 5 years no one really seems to know the money it'll be per year yet.
 
Matthews is getting done. Hopefully 5 years at least and no more then 13... its crazy to me he even gets that comparatively to others but it'll be around there most likely and Leafs can't lose their number 1C.

Nylander (if he isn't traded) it should get done around 9.25 tops. Seems there is middle ground there but Leafs may need to go another way to round out the team.

Brodie going is stupid unless it's a package with him and you get a younger version of him basically.
Brodie may have to go for cap reasons or to add a heavier dman.
 
No I ask this question because yesterday @Notsince67 posted this and it's pretty concerning that Tavares doesn't even rank in the top 100 in any of the three categories.

View attachment 726899
Just contribution on even strength last year was pretty questionable and a lot of people figured that out with zero stats. Even penalties taken vs drawn (and he doesn't take much) is not good. He draws almost nothing.
 
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I think 5 years is okay. I think he's silly for not doing 8 though and thinking he's going to try and get another big contract. That's why it might only be 3 years.

He's looking at that cap going up by then quite a bit. So my bet is shorter (3 years) so he'll still be worth more when he's around 28 or 29. If he does 5 that's where if you're the Leafs it may be the end of the road for him. A lot can happen in 5 years though.

We can't afford to lose him but it's frustrating he looks at the money quite a bit. I want to just hear our guys talk about championships and taking less but not allowed on the Leafs I guess.

Still at this point other then 3 to 5 years no one really seems to know the money it'll be per year yet.
Somebody should tell him about the "greedy dog and the bone".
 
Matthews is getting done. Hopefully 5 years at least and no more then 13... its crazy to me he even gets that comparatively to others but it'll be around there most likely and Leafs can't lose their number 1C.

Nylander (if he isn't traded) it should get done around 9.25 tops. Seems there is middle ground there but Leafs may need to go another way to round out the team.

Brodie going is stupid unless it's a package with him and you get a younger version of him basically.
13 is a good number for Matthews. It's a 1.36 million raise, him getting 13 is not as much as it looks. He is an elite player, already one of the greatest leafs of all time. Although I do worry about his wrist issues becoming chronic, especially considering he is a goal scorer and needs his wrists to be right lol

The Nylander extension if it gets done is gonna be hell for our cap until it goes up, but there are quite a few players making 9-10 million that I'd EASILY take Nylander over any day of the week. He deserves 9-9.5 million.
 
I think 5 years is okay. I think he's silly for not doing 8 though and thinking he's going to try and get another big contract. That's why it might only be 3 years.

He's looking at that cap going up by then quite a bit. So my bet is shorter (3 years) so he'll still be worth more when he's around 28 or 29. If he does 5 that's where if you're the Leafs it may be the end of the road for him. A lot can happen in 5 years though.

We can't afford to lose him but it's frustrating he looks at the money quite a bit. I want to just hear our guys talk about championships and taking less but not allowed on the Leafs I guess.

Still at this point other then 3 to 5 years no one really seems to know the money it'll be per year yet.
I agree, as a player, they would look for financial security therefore long term, but for the team IMO, 5 years allows more flexibility in case of issues. I don't think it'll be 3 years personally.

As you said a lot can happen in 5 years and honestly, that's why I think it's ideal. He might be looking for money but as far as I am concerned, I think it's pretty much a done deal just ironing out the deals and all.

I do agree...I wish they were more vocal about those things, sadly I feel like they keep it on the down low and is kind of frustrating.
 
Feels like we maybe should've have signed Klingberg for 4.2M if we need to trade one of the best defensive d-men in the league who only makes 5M
I'm not sure what Tre's thinking is on signing Klingberg. Brodie has been a good dman but he is on the decline and does not bring any physicality, which is what this team lacks and probably what Tre wants to add. If he is going to add another top 4 dman, who goes ? Lily, McCabe's and Gio's cap hits won't save you much. It won't be Rielly or Klingberg. That leaves Brodie.
 
Yeach but they need to be
Like many of the advanced stats models people compare players who have such similar values that the error is larger than the difference in values, meaning you can't actually draw any conclusions. Also I think many of the advanced stats aren't meant to be used on the individual player comparrsion level
Yeah but they need to be part of the conversation. Especially when characters merely use goals as a measurement
 
Honestly I’m starting to warm up to the idea of a 3 year deal for Matthews. Keep the AAV a little lower and you know he’ll be looking to sign an 8 year deal after the 3 or 5 year deal he’s going to sign now. An 8 year deal after a 3 year deal right now isn’t terrible but an 8 year deal after a 5 year deal right now probably won’t be pretty those last few years.
 
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Honestly I’m starting to warm up to the idea of a 3 year deal for Matthews. Keep the AAV a little lower and you know he’ll be looking to sign an 8 year deal after the 3 or 5 year deal he’s going to sign now. An 8 year deal after a 3 year deal right now isn’t terrible but an 8 year deal after a 5 year deal right now probably won’t be pretty those last few years.
He will get paid large by another team just for the experience of all the cups he will have won:sarcasm:
 
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After the signings yeah. I dont know if they'll find as good a player as him but I know some people aren't to big on him anyway.
If Tre brings in another top 4 dman (say Pesche), Brodie is the dman to go IMO. Of course, I'd rather keep Brodie over anybody but Rielly but he has the second highest cap hit on our D so if they need cap space, he's your man.
 
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If Tre brings in another 4 dman (say Pesche), Brodie is the dman to go IMO. Of course, I'd rather keep Brodie over anybody but Rielly but he has the second highest cap hit on our D so if they need cap space, he's your man.
Yeah its unfortunate and it'd be nice to have a schenn replacement.

It's still early in the off season. If Nylander goes for example... that'd give them plenty of different options.

They have some big decisions to make because something is going to have to give.
 
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Yeah its unfortunate and it'd be nice to have a schenn replacement.

It's still early in the off season. If Nylander goes for example... that'd give them plenty of different options.

They have some big decisions to make because something is going to have to give.
Unless you trade Willie for players on ELCs and/or picks you are not getting much cap relief moving him alone IMO.
 
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I've been expecting a Brodie trade since Treliving's first day (he said he wanted to remake the D, also only mentioned gio when asked about former Flames). And a case can be made it could be worth moving on given his contract status.

Problem is I'd be concerned that there's a likely chance his eventual replacement will likely be a worse player. Maybe Treliving will try and entice Dumba
 
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There is a TONNE of hyperbole about his decline. His skating has gotten worse, and wasn’t awesome to start with, but the guy is still a high-end 2C when it comes to his contributions on the sheet
I would be thrilled to have McDavid, Matthews, Tavares and Kampf as our centres in 3 years.
A 5 year contract for #34 would work well. Cap would be interesting to make it work.
 
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