Speculation: New coach options?

[Mortimer Snerd]

Guffman has compiled some stats based on the current year record of head coaches sorted by years of experience.

Experience: 0-3 years Winning %: 0.519 (11 coaches)
Experience: 4-9 years Winning %: 0.576 (11 coaches)
Experience 10+ years Winning %: 0.591 (10 coaches)

More experience = better.

Stop giving me garbage about fresh faces having fresh ideas. Their half-baked ideas don't compensate for their lack of experience. The Jets are built to win NOW. You DO NOT insert some inexperienced idiot to learn the ropes when time is of the essence.

Coaches who win more stay around longer.
Coaches with good rosters win more.
Coaches with good goalies win more.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I dunno. If the Jets proceed to a weak fade to the Avs in a sweep, I don’t think making the playoffs would suffice.

Yeah, you're right. I overrated simply making the PO's. We aren't quite far enough out for it to count that high. I was thinking of the betting odds we have seen recently. Moneypuck has us all the way up to 14% now.

But a real strong turnaround starting right now would make a difference. Not that I expect one.

 

[WolfHouse]

Coaches who win more stay around longer.
Coaches with good rosters win more.
Coaches with good goalies win more.

Good goalies make good coaches. Bad coaches undermine good goalies.

Curtis Joseph versus Martin Brodeur.

Both were likely equally talented - Brodeur benefitted from the trap, Joseph had to carry his teams.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

IDK, based on the reasons given somewhere upthread. Chevy has been less than enthusiastic when asked about his assessment of Big Dave, and I can't see Chipman loving him as the media face of the franchise.

This team was retooled in the offseason as a Cup contender. We will be lucky to make the POs. Lowry has had most of the season to get us there, and hasn't done it yet.

This is a cap team with elite talent. I can't see squeaking into the playoffs as a great return on investment.

But then, this is also the org that kept its last coach way beyond his sell-by date, even as the team was crumbling, so who the hell knows.

I think you may be right that he was always slated to be 'interim'. I overrated just squeaking into the PO too. They are actually close enough that they could fluke in, get help from Dallas crapping the bed.

But I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the powers that be managed to convince themselves that he had done enough to justify keeping him. Not a lot of confidence in management right now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It’s almost as if the results were really good when the defence was really good. And then became bad when 5 of 6 defencemen were lost. I, for one, am shocked..

How do you explain the change from last year to this, when we were supposed to have fixed our D?

 

[WolfHouse]

I think you may be right that he was always slated to be 'interim'. I overrated just squeaking into the PO too. They are actually close enough that they could fluke in, get help from Dallas crapping the bed.

But I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the powers that be managed to convince themselves that he had done enough to justify keeping him. Not a lot of confidence in management right now.

If Maurice's $$ are up at the end of this season, then we will get a whole new squad... I think they are. I highly doubt that he resigned and gave up all the $$ owed to him in this last contract.

TNSE must be taking a beating due to covid - Lowry could be extended simply due to the fact that he will be a Winnipeg cheap deal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

When your spending right to the top of the salary cap you better be a win now franchise, i know if i was Chipman i would be expecting to have a win now franchise.

Of course that is the expectation. But that is old news now. The expensive roster assembled doesn't appear to have what it takes. So cut spending. Make changes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Unless you think our franchise is smarter than most and will pluck the gem coach with little NHL HC chops, I think you’re taking a big risk going that route.

We don’t have time to squander with taking a risky shot like that. I’d much rather get a coach with a good track record that has brought a team to the SC finals.

Go either way and you are taking a big risk. There are no Scotty Bowmans available. The risk of hiring a promising looking young guy is no greater than the risk of hiring an experienced coach who been fired at least once and usually more times. There is no path to substantially reducing that risk.

 

[Al Camino]

I think you may be right that he was always slated to be 'interim'. I overrated just squeaking into the PO too. They are actually close enough that they could fluke in, get help from Dallas crapping the bed.

But I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the powers that be managed to convince themselves that he had done enough to justify keeping him. Not a lot of confidence in management right now.

Chipman is impressed by the last 'hockey guy' he talks to so this is entirely possible. And keeps in line with what TSNE does.

 

[Guffman]

Go either way and you are taking a big risk. There are no Scotty Bowmans available. The risk of hiring a promising looking young guy is no greater than the risk of hiring an experienced coach who been fired at least once and usually more times. There is no path to substantially reducing that risk.

According to my review, experienced coaches are doing much better than the inexperienced coaches this year. I bet that metric is pretty consistent over the years.

Chevy should just hire his Chicago buddy Quenville.

 

[Guffman]

How do you explain the change from last year to this, when we were supposed to have fixed our D?

Helle having a mediocre year for starters.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

According to my review, experienced coaches are doing much better than the inexperienced coaches this year. I bet that metric is pretty consistent over the years.

Chevy should just hire his Chicago buddy Quenville.

Of course it is consistent. But it is not experience that makes them perform better.

The better coaches getting more experience does not necessarily mean that coaches with a lot of experience are better.
And you are ignoring roster effects. The coaches with the better rosters have more success, therefore they last longer.

We just got rid of the 2nd (or was it 3rd?) most experienced coach in the history of the NHL. Also the coach with the record for the most losses ever.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Helle having a mediocre year for starters.

That was in reference to the number of high danger chances surrendered. The goalie has no effect on that.

 

[Duke749]

Of course it is consistent. But it is not experience that makes them perform better.

The better coaches getting more experience does not necessarily mean that coaches with a lot of experience are better.
And you are ignoring roster effects. The coaches with the better rosters have more success, therefore they last longer.

We just got rid of the 2nd (or was it 3rd?) most experienced coach in the history of the NHL. Also the coach with the record for the most losses ever.

I think what you’re alluding too is, the more experienced coaches tend to be more successful because well, they’re better so they stay around longer. Bad coaches only last so long period. Mediocre coaches can still carve out a career. Bad ones eventually just fall to the wayside.

 

[jgimp]

I’d take a midget local league coach at this stage

 

[None]

Still leaning towards Grönborg or Bylsma but feeling more like we also need to be discussing the next GM more actively.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

I nominate Patches O'Houlihan.

 

[MardyBum]

Maybe fourth time's the charm this offseason

 

[DRW204]

Guffman has compiled some stats based on the current year record of head coaches sorted by years of experience.

Experience: 0-3 years Winning %: 0.519 (11 coaches)
Experience: 4-9 years Winning %: 0.576 (11 coaches)
Experience 10+ years Winning %: 0.591 (10 coaches)

More experience = better.

Stop giving me garbage about fresh faces having fresh ideas. Their half-baked ideas don't compensate for their lack of experience. The Jets are built to win NOW. You DO NOT insert some inexperienced idiot to learn the ropes when time is of the essence.

Is this looking at their record based on experience when hired by their respective teams?

For example Cooper had 0 nhl experience when hired, same Brindamour and bednar. Cassidy falls into 0-3 years as well as Berube. Or just looking at years coaching to-date?

 

[oldunclehue]

Maybe fourth time's the charm this offseason

This is a broken man's reply. You are an expert in your field of coaching hockey (based on coaching in the NHL) and you have no answers to why.... it makes NO sense at all.

Lowry is a dud, biggest mistake of the year was how we handled the Maurice situation, then letting Lowry take over. Should of hired someone from the outside on an interim basis and created a new identity as quickly as possible.

I can't even watch the games anymore, pathetically boring, zero emotion and our "leaders" are just gearing up for golfing and lake life this summer. Joke is on the fans who pay to watch this team play....the players get to run off to their big summer cabins and enjoy time away. We have to work our asses off to pay for season tickets to watch this joke.

After this season....I am finding it VERY VERY hard to be a fan of this team...and the organization.

 

[jgimp]

I’d still be keen on Scott Sandelin or Rikard Gronborg. I don’t want a re-tread.

 

[surixon]

I think the type of coach will depend on the direction the org chooses this offseason. If we move on from some core guys and go a bit younger I see a young new age coach like Vincent come in.

If they double down on the Wheeler/Scheifele group then i see an experienced take charge guy come in.

 

[Guffman]

Is this looking at their record based on experience when hired by their respective teams?

For example Cooper had 0 nhl experience when hired, same Brindamour and bednar. Cassidy falls into 0-3 years as well as Berube. Or just looking at years coaching to-date?

This is their aggregate experience to date, not when they were hired.

 

[Guffman]

After this season....I am finding it VERY VERY hard to be a fan of this team...and the organization.

I don't live in Winnipeg so I bought NHL Live for the season. What a waste of money. I see that they now offer monthly subscriptions. I am definitely not buying the season pass next year. I will consider the monthly at some point if the Jets put out a decent product.

The thing I absolutely cannot stand is underperformance. It's inexcusable for such a talented team, on paper, to have a season like this.

 

[Al Camino]

I have a feeling Chipman is leaning towards Babcock.
Fits what they like. Known quantity, a bit of name.