Local talent pool, which to my knowledge is only one strong AAA organization in the St. Louis Jr. Blues, is a near complete non-factor in the competitiveness of a program.
Even if it was a major factor, I think you'd have a tough time finding more than 5-6 NCAA D1 programs that don't have a strong minor hockey organization less than 20 miles away as well as a Tier II or above junior team within 100 miles.
Saying "local talent stays local" means little. It doesn't happen very often...
- See LIU: only two NYC area players on their entire roster despite being within an hour drive of no less than 6 *extremely* high level AAA organizations, more than St. Louis, and within 100 miles of 2 NAHL teams, more than St. Louis.
- See AIC: rich recruiting grounds of Massachusetts. More talent than you can shake a stick at. More AAA organizations, prep schools, high level juniors in state let alone within 100 miles than you can count. They are the best team on an annual basis in Atlantic Hockey. Not a single Massachusetts player on the roster.
- See Bentley: same thing as AIC, except 15 minutes West of Boston and in the middle of some of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the county. Only 1 Massachusetts player on the roster
- See Sacred Heart: Fairfield County, huge hockey area, within easy distance of the tri-state area and not a single Connecticut kid and maybe a handful of tri-state area kids
- See Denver: one of the top teams in the country, not a single Colorado kid. I am fairly certain this goes back a few years as well
- See Umass-Amherst: one of the top teams in the country in recent years, only two Mass kids on the team and max only ever had 3-4.
There are others like Canisius (one in state), UConn (two in state), and many others I don't feel like listing. For every Minnesota with a huge Minnesota-based roster, there are 5-6 others where it isn't the case despite sharing the same recruiting grounds.
By far the biggest factors are budget, facility, and staff.