Value of: Nazem Kadri's Next Contract

[thefutures]

That is not what I said, but hey, go ahead and take things out of context to try to change the narrative, the facts don't change.

And while I never specifically said Marner or Rantanen are future hall of fame players, there is honestly a good chance they both could be if they stay healthy. Marner is only 24 this season and is coming up on 400 points already. Rantanen has 150 goals and is a point per game player and he only just turned 25.

While Marner and Kadri were on the Leafs together, Marner consistently produced points playing with Bozak, JVR, Nylander, Hyman, and Marleau. When Kadri played with those guys and Marner wasn't one of them, he paced for less than 30 points a season. His large amount of points playing on the top PP with the big guns has always padded his stats, the same way it has now in Colorado. When he isn't playing with a line driving player, he doesn't produce, PP or ES.

If you are using a lock-out shortened season 9 years ago to make an argument, there is a good chance that argument needs to be re-evaluated.

You said kadri would revert to 35-45 pt player when he's never been a 35 pt guy. Sweet fact. Just admit you know nothing.

 

[Irie]

You said kadri would revert to 35-45 pt player when he's never been a 35 pt guy. Sweet fact. Just admit you know nothing.

35-45 is an estimated value. One in which Kadri has finished between multiple times, and it is actually his average pro-rated point total when not playing with star players more often than not.

What do you honestly think his point totals would be if he went to a team like Seattle and had to face other teams top shut-down defensive pairing every night? 40 points is being generous in that scenario.

Of course, if he went to a team like Edmonton and padded his stats on their top PP unit, he could be a 60+ point player, but he is not a center that is going to turn a 10 goal guy into a 30 goal guy. He can not drive his own line and whichever team overpays him to do so is going to massively regret it.

 

[keglu]

35-45 is an estimated value. One in which Kadri has finished between multiple times, and it is actually his average pro-rated point total when not playing with star players more often than not.

What do you honestly think his point totals would be if he went to a team like Seattle and had to face other teams top shut-down defensive pairing every night? 40 points is being generous in that scenario.

Of course, if he went to a team like Edmonton and padded his stats on their top PP unit, he could be a 60+ point player, but he is not a center that is going to turn a 10 goal guy into a 30 goal guy. He can not drive his own line and whichever team overpays him to do so is going to massively regret it.

Finishing 35 points in 50 games does not make you 35 point player. Again he can not be "once again" 35 point player because he never was one.
This is not matter of opinion but statistical fact.
And i agree he can't drive his own line and whoever sings him will regret this (but this applies for practically every 30 years old UFA signing)
That still does not make him 40 points player.

 

[bigbabybuda]

Kadri is very underrated and while he may get to much money this offseason he a hell of a lot better than players like Hyman and Colorado is going to miss him a tonne if and when he is gone.

 

[Irie]

Finishing 35 points in 50 games does not make you 35 point player. Again he can not be "once again" 35 point player because he never was one.
This is not matter of opinion but statistical fact.
And i agree he can't drive his own line and whoever sings him will regret this (but this applies for practically every 30 years old UFA signing)
That still does not make him 40 points player.

35 - 45 is a point range. It is not a hard value. I did not think that statement could possibly be so misconstrued by so many people, my bad for using a ranged value and expecting others to take it as a ranged value, and not thinking that 35-45 would mean an exact number. I apologize.

I probably I should have written 39-45, but I was just stating my opinion of where I believe his point totals will fall (35-45) if a GM like Francis threw a large contract at him and he played on a team like the Kraken. And for the record, something like 20 goal 18 assist campaign on a team like that would be very respectable, and could only be accomplished by a solid player, but it isn't going to be worth 7.5 million per on a long term deal.

To all the posters claiming he's a 65+ point #1 center playing on teams that aren't loaded with allstar linemates, I honestly hope (for you sake) that your team signs him to a very long and expensive deal. I am sure that will work out wonderfully for you.

 

[firstemperor]

Love Naz so I'm biased but he's not worth 7m+ AAV on term , though I think he will get it on the open market. Kadri isn't a line driver, though he has produced on lines with poor teammates in the past (Leafs). It's hypocritical to say but I do believe that was a bit of a aberration (he was bumper on a very strong power player in that year). He has games where he looks great in the middle of the ice but for the most part, I think he will have to move to the wing or get reps at wing ideally later in his career if your a) valuing 200-foot play , 2) looking to build a contender. He has a deceptive shot and great hands. He was never a great skater but his skating will decline as he gets older, I would be nervous to give him that deal. I think with Kadri, your paying a higher premium for intangibles

 

[tucker3434]

I think he is worth $7-8 right now. If a team can keep the term down to ~4 years, they’ll be fine. If it’s a 7 year deal, it’ll be a problem.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Kadri is going to get paid by someone.

Fully expect a 5yr+ deal because someone will anti up.

It’s essentially his last money deal so he will be looking to cash in and rightly so.

 

[BlueBaron]

Teams that may need a top-6 center next offseason (alphabetically):
Arizona
Boston
Buffalo
Colorado
Columbus
Detroit
Minnesota
New York Rangers
Ottawa

That's off the top of my head. From there we can start the process of elimination on who a) will have the money for him, and b) current state of team warrants signing him

Seattle might be another.

 

[franste Perreault]

The big problem is a GM will give him a 6 or 7 years contract and regret it in 5 years. Kadri is a good player but if i have a choice i prefer give same money on a 7 years terrm on Hertl .

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think he is worth $7-8 right now. If a team can keep the term down to ~4 years, they’ll be fine. If it’s a 7 year deal, it’ll be a problem.

Starts his new contract at age 32. I think the offers he gets will be 3 or 4 year terms and he will get affected by a flat cap growth as well. Some interesting centers who need new contracts... Malkin, Bergeron, Kadri, Hertl, Trocheck, Strome.

I'm I'm Kadri, I stay in Colorado like RNH did with the Oilers.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Starts his new contract at age 32. I think the offers he gets will be 3 or 4 year terms and he will get affected by a flat cap growth as well. Some interesting centers who need new contracts... Malkin, Bergeron, Kadri, Hertl, Trocheck, Strome.

I'm I'm Kadri, I stay in Colorado like RNH did with the Oilers.

Even if Kadri wants to take a 3 year, very team friendly discount to stay in Colorado, it's going to be very difficult for the Avs to fit him under the cap and still keep the younger/better/harder to replace guys that are going to need new deals over the next year or two.

 

[buffalowing88]

Kadri is a UFA at the end of the year and is currently on an absolute heater of a season and hasn't really slowed down at all. He has 37 points in 23 games, which is by far his best season since 2012-2013.

He is 31 years old, will likely be 32 as soon as the next season starts. What is he going to fetch for his next contract? What teams might be interested?

Seem's ominous...

But I say if he makes it to 32 and next season than the deal will be 7.5 x 4 years. If Kadri wants long-term security he can knock a million off for 6 years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Even if Kadri wants to take a 3 year, very team friendly discount to stay in Colorado, it's going to be very difficult for the Avs to fit him under the cap and still keep the younger/better/harder to replace guys that are going to need new deals over the next year or two.

You going to save money for goalie upgrades and pay that goalie $6M ish? Getting ready to trade for Price? I'm kidding, it was a joke

To be serious, you would not retain Kadri at $5M for 4 years? Not enough cap space? Isn't that deflating for a cup contender looking to improve? And yes, I'm aware of the future contracts to guys like MacKinnon. In 2 years time, you got 5 players signed with $46M of cap space. Personally, if Kadri wanted to stay for 4 years at $5M, I think you retain him and you can fit him in. I don't think $5M for your center after MacKinnon is a problem... the question is do you want Kadri to be that guy or a different type?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Seem's ominous...

But I say if he makes it to 32 and next season than the deal will be 7.5 x 4 years. If Kadri wants long-term security he can knock a million off for 6 years.

Depends of Kadri wants to win a cup or not. I'm sure teams at the bottom or mid pack looking for upgrades can give him what he wants but is he after money or to be on a playoff team? He's earned $37M so far in his career.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

You going to save money for goalie upgrades and pay that goalie $6M ish? Getting ready to trade for Price? I'm kidding, it was a joke

To be serious, you would not retain Kadri at $5M for 4 years? Not enough cap space? Isn't that deflating for a cup contender looking to improve? And yes, I'm aware of the future contracts to guys like MacKinnon. In 2 years time, you got 5 players signed with $46M of cap space. Personally, if Kadri wanted to stay for 4 years at $5M, I think you retain him and you can fit him in. I don't think $5M for your center after MacKinnon is a problem... the question is do you want Kadri to be that guy or a different type?

Nah, we're getting ready to pay the best player in the world what he's worth. I just hope Nuke is willing to accept it.

And, at $5m for 4 years, Kadri would absolutely be very tempting. But, we have Newhook with an ELC year left who could plausibly replace him at 2C and could possibly deserve a similar $5m cap hit on his 2nd deal, so my first choice would be to make sure we can try to keep Burakovsky and Nuke, and address our needs in net, while also leaving future cap space available to give Byram a big deal if he can stay healthy.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Nah, we're getting ready to pay the best player in the world what he's worth. I just hope Nuke is willing to accept it.

He's already on record at wanting to stay for discount so he can win. So it would be best to ensure he has reasons beyond (Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog, Byram) to stay. The more cap space you have available when it's time for him to extend, he might want to take as much of it as he can. I think $9M would be a good number for both him and the team. Maybe ensure you got $10M for him and then spend the rest of the projected cap accordingly.

I don't feel you are reaching by having a 2nd line center at $5M. Like I said, do you want that guy to be Kadri or someone else. If Kadri wants to stay at a team friendly deal, I think Sakic takes it

Imagine if a guy like Bergeron wanted to join MacKinnon? Would you say no to him for 2 years at $5M at age 37/38?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

He's already on record at wanting to stay for discount so he can win. So it would be best to ensure he has reasons beyond (Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog, Byram) to stay. The more cap space you have available when it's time for him to extend, he might want to take as much of it as he can. I think $9M would be a good number for both him and the team. Maybe ensure you got $10M for him and then spend the rest of the projected cap accordingly.

I don't feel you are reaching by having a 2nd line center at $5M. Like I said, do you want that guy to be Kadri or someone else. If Kadri wants to stay at a team friendly deal, I think Sakic takes it

Imagine if a guy like Bergeron wanted to join MacKinnon? Would you say no to him for 2 years at $5M at age 37/38?

Sorry, but I simply don't see how we could justify paying Nichushkin $9m a year and still be able to afford to keep MacKinnon.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sorry, but I simply don't see how we could justify paying Nichushkin $9m a year and still be able to afford to keep MacKinnon.

Why would you pay Nichushkin $9M a year? That's not what I was saying so it don't apply to the narrative you posted towards.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I’m going to guess he ends up in Boston. Their center situation looks the most dire of any playoff team.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’m going to guess he ends up in Boston. Their center situation looks the most dire of any playoff team.

Doubt it. He will get several offers and the last thing Kadri wants is to play that many games against the Leafs each season. Ontario boy factor that was clearly upset when he was traded away. Because he will have options, I don't think he chooses the Bruins

 

[Patagonia]

You going to save money for goalie upgrades and pay that goalie $6M ish? Getting ready to trade for Price? I'm kidding, it was a joke

To be serious, you would not retain Kadri at $5M for 4 years? Not enough cap space? Isn't that deflating for a cup contender looking to improve? And yes, I'm aware of the future contracts to guys like MacKinnon. In 2 years time, you got 5 players signed with $46M of cap space. Personally, if Kadri wanted to stay for 4 years at $5M, I think you retain him and you can fit him in. I don't think $5M for your center after MacKinnon is a problem... the question is do you want Kadri to be that guy or a different type?

Kadri @ $5M would be a steal, doubtful when offers are likely $7M+ for likely longer term. Too much money for any player to sacrifice on possibly his last big payday. I expect him to be gone to a team closer to home to either BOS, NYR or MTL.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

A team desperate for centers will trade for his rights and give him a crazy deal to avoid UFA. Something like 7.5m x 6.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Kadri @ $5M would be a steal, doubtful when offers are likely $7M+ for likely longer term. Too much money for any player to sacrifice on possibly his last big payday. I expect him to be gone to a team closer to home to either BOS, NYR or MTL.

It might be the Rangers but it won't be the Habs. Doubt it's the Bruins due to being in the same division as the Leafs. I really think he will avoid the Atlantic division.

I think there is a chance he takes a discount to stay in Colorado.... like RNH with the Oilers. If I was him, that's what I would do. Chance to win a cup and less pressure if he goes after a max deal. He's already earned $37M so far and a 4 year deal at $5M gives gets him to $57M. Going after a max deal will probably put him on a non cup contender and bloated expectations where he may drown. How much is an extra $15M worth to him over the 4x$5M=$20M contract? $57M vs $72M.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Why would you pay Nichushkin $9M a year? That's not what I was saying so it don't apply to the narrative you posted towards.

The better question is - why would you quote my tongue in cheek post about Nuke being the best player in the world and say we should pay "him" $9m a year if you don't think he's worth it? Or should I just assume that you didn't actually read my post before replying?