2. Timothy Liljegren, RHD, 19 (Toronto Marlies)
It’s important, before I jump in here, to establish a baseline for my evaluations of Liljegren over the course of the last three years. For a little while, I believed he had a chance to be a top-five pick in the 2017 draft. By the time the draft arrived, while I’d begun to sour on him, I was aggressive in my belief within the scouting community that Liljegren was one of his class’ most gifted defencemen. I fought for him to sit higher on our final ranking at Future Considerations than where he landed (22nd). When the Leafs plucked him at 17th overall, I qualified him among a handful of players who’d fallen and could be classified as someone to keep an eye on as a potential steal. But as good as his rookie season in the AHL was (his 0.39 points per game ranks his under-19 AHL season ahead of Oliver Kylington’s 0.26 and Hampus Lindholm’s 0.25 as the best season by a teenage defenceman in recent memory), I have begun to sour on Liljegren’s upside based on an evaluation of his skill set, rather than his statistical context. There is very little reason, in terms of Liljegren’s production, for anyone to doubt him. This season, now 19, he has continued to progress in that way. His seven points in 13 games (0.54 points per game) puts him in good under-20 company, and second to Erik Brannstrom (0.92) among the five defencemen of his age group who’ve played in the AHL this season. My concerns with Liljegren’s game stem primarily from concerns of context, shooting and skating. The context includes that Liljegren has been gifted power play time. He has, since Day 1, been given top minutes when his team has the man advantage (often over players like Andrew Nielsen or Calle Rosen who’ve proven to be more effective in the role than he has). In 76 career AHL games to date, 13 of his 28 points have come on the man advantage as a result of that ice time. But most of all, my concerns stem from a talent evaluation. That evaluation is twofold:
- Liljegren isn’t a shot threat. He doesn’t have a slapshot and his wrister lacks power because he relies on an aggressive toe-to-heel curl to create it. That curl, while sometimes effective at changing angles, also takes time. And time allows opposing players to track it and block it. This season, Liljegren has just 14 shots on goal in 12 games as a result (in contrast, Borgman has 31 and Subban and Rosen each have 27). Without a shot threat, Liljegren’s ability to be a dynamic threat on an NHL power play will be limited.
- If Liljegren can’t be a PP1 option, he’ll need to be a reliable, even-strength option at both ends to be more than a third-pairing, right-shot defenceman for a contending team. While there has been progress in that area — Liljegren has been challenged to play tougher minutes (including on the penalty kill) out of the gate this year with Calle Rosen after getting reined in during last year’s playoff run — I’m not sure he’s ever going to be a great defenceman at the next level. The biggest reason for that is his skating. The easy argument to be made is that he’s young and the magic of Barb Underhill, time and strength can improve his stride (he struggled with a hip problem last season that may have hindered him too). But his skating should be a real concern for his path forward. He still splays out from his knees, rather than extending all the way through his stride. He still skates with a cumbersome pitchfork stride in straight lines and struggles with his pivots. All of these things continue to result in Liljegren getting turnstiled off the rush.
None of this is to say the kid doesn’t offer a lot. He does. He might be the best three-zone passer in the organization. He’s silky with with puck and getting more physical. These are all translatable skills that bode well. I’d still bank on him being an NHL defenceman within the next couple of years. But he’s not going to be a star. I just haven’t seen enough growth. And that means he’s a tier lower than I thought he was when the Leafs drafted him.
