Speculation: Monahan forward most likely dealt first

[pth2]

Again, using stats without an understanding of statistics makes for very poor assessments.

This is so true, in just about any context.

 

[Romang67]

Great. Now, how about you look at what happened to that human being "the past 5 years"...

Might help you understand why 2 yrs ago, a team paid a 1st to move him, after deploying him in bottom 6/ healthy scratch the year before

Again, using stats without an understanding of statistics makes for very poor assessments.

Numbers are just numbers, context is where any reasonable or useful meaning can be inferred... Unless you are talking video games... Though even there, I suspect EA 24 moneyhands will be a pretty useful top 6 addition if you're playing with cap on lol

Give it up. Move on. Enjoy the crow in a few weeks, heard it tastes better with a balsamic reduction

So, I take it you don't actually have an answer to my question about your begging the question? Since you just keep deflecting.

Again, you're just going to have to trust me in that my ability to work with and understand data and stats has been vetted by people who know more about it this stuff than you.

Oh, and Monahan's P/60 hasn't suddenly improved. That's why I said it has remained close to the same level it has, not that it dipped briefly while he was a bottom 6er but then drastically improved all of a sudden.

 

[Romang67]

Lehkonen's production didn't go up by playing more 5v5 minutes. It went up by playing top pp minutes with Makar, Mackinnon, and Rantanen. His EV production is the same with Colorado as it was with the habs. His pp production went up by like 900%.

Monahan would be producing even more if he got to play on that powerplay.

What gives you that idea? When Monahan was on the Flames in his prime, he never produced at a noticeably higher rate on the PP than he has this season, and it's not like every player on the Avs is putting up remarkable numbers on the PP.

 

[Petes2424]

Well, this Habs fan does hope to see Monahan re-sign for 2-4yrs, so for some, that's exactly who he is.

The injury history is the only concern. His level of play & off ice attitude/behaviours are 100% what you want in place from a quality middle-6 vet. @29, if his recovery holds up, he'll be good for several years. His game is about skill, vision, positioning and effort, I wouldn't expect much drop off unless he can't play, in which case LTIR buffers it.

See you in a few weeks

I agree with you 100%. Those injuries and the long, long time of not contributing, is gonna keep teams away from signing him to a long term contract though. That will effect what they’re willing to pay. And it should.

Can I see a 1st sent if it’s a combo deal like LA/Columbus last year? Sure. Colorado sending a 1st for Monahan and Savard wouldn’t surprise me. They’re one of the very few teams though, who may have a 1st available for a rental. Just don’t see them bidding against themselves for Monahan straight up.

 

[jfhabs]

I hope someone pays a 1st for Monahan, that'll just up the value of Lindholm even more!

I'd guess if Montreal can get a 2nd & stuff, they'll take it.

Yes I think that's his value, 2nd with a little plus.
But it only takes one GM to offer a 1st , we never know.... Worst players have returned firsts before!

Great. Now, how about you look at what happened to that human being "the past 5 years"...

Might help you understand why 2 yrs ago, a team paid a 1st to move him, after deploying him in bottom 6/ healthy scratch the year before

Again, using stats without an understanding of statistics makes for very poor assessments.

Numbers are just numbers, context is where any reasonable or useful meaning can be inferred... Unless you are talking video games... Though even there, I suspect EA 24 moneyhands will be a pretty useful top 6 addition if you're playing with cap on lol

Give it up. Move on. Enjoy the crow in a few weeks, heard it tastes better with a balsamic reduction

The GM panicked and made some shit moves to keep his job. He now works for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

[TS Quint]

that we would be lucky to get a 3rd for him or that hes useless because most his points come on the PP works both ways buddy but go ahead and keep laughing at every post

idk about a 1st maybe we get lucky ive seen worst players return one but anyone who doesnt think Moneyhands is worth a 2nd + small add is trolling

Again, you fail to address the actual point of the posts. Lame!

 

[Miller Time]

The GM panicked and made some shit moves to keep his job. He now works for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Treliving's failures aside, Monahan at that point had another surgery to go and was questionable to return to full time role let alone get to the level he's at now.

The 5 year window the poster I was responding to is a useless reference point, for a deadline rental in the midst of a healthy & productive season, for obvious reasons. Context is too much for some to grasp, apparently.

 

[pth2]

Yes I think that's his value, 2nd with a little plus.
But it only takes one GM to offer a 1st , we never know.... Worst players have returned firsts before!


The GM panicked and made some shit moves to keep his job. He now works for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I think you pretty much sum up the typical opinion - something like a 2nd and 3d is most likely, but holding onto hope of a 1st isn't unreasonable.

 

[pth2]

I agree with you 100%. Those injuries and the long, long time of not contributing, is gonna keep teams away from signing him to a long term contract though. That will effect what they’re willing to pay. And it should.

Can I see a 1st sent if it’s a combo deal like LA/Columbus last year? Sure. Colorado sending a 1st for Monahan and Savard wouldn’t surprise me. They’re one of the very few teams though, who may have a 1st available for a rental. Just don’t see them bidding against themselves for Monahan straight up.

Thing is, I think Savard on his own takes a 1st rounder, simply because he's of great value to Montreal, and they'd rather just keep him a year rather than move him and then need to find a UFA RD over the summer, hope they sign someone to a reasonable deal and that they fill the mentor role as well as Savard, and then hope they don't end up blocking the progress of the kids, whereas Savard should still fetch some kind of a return in a year. So, if someone wants Savard, it's a case of having to overpay in what is likely an auction if he is seen as available....

Monahan's return will depend on the offers that come in (ie, if the haters have a point and no one offers more than a 4th, he might leave for a 4th), but in Savard's case, management can simply fix a price and not worry if it doesn't come, we're happy to keep him.

 

[HuGo boss]

After reading this thread, it's safe to assume Monahans value is somewhere in between connor bedard and future considerations

 

[TheNumber4]

More PP points for the Monahan pump n dump. Wonder which GM will be fooled.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

More PP points for the Monahan pump n dump. Wonder which GM will be fooled.

Without PP points he is on pace for 42 points in 82 games. Whichever way you slice it he is producing at 2C levels and then some.

Stylistically he is not a good fit for some teams built on speed. But you can't deny he is producing easily at 2C levels.

 

[Hunter368]

After reading this thread, it's safe to assume Monahans value is somewhere in between connor bedard and future considerations

Happens every TDL, fans debate certain players values, always lots of hyperbole and later back peddling. In this thread alone we've seen some say he's just a poor fit in their teams (which is fair) and some claim his value is as high as 1st++ and some as low as a 4th rd pick and I think most fall into the 2rd pick or 2rd pick with a small plus.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Happens every TDL, fans debate certain players values, always lots of hyperbole and later back peddling. In this thread alone we've seen some say he's just a poor fit in their teams (which is fair) and some claim his value is as high as 1st++ and some as low as a 4th rd pick and I think most fall into the 2rd pick or 2rd pick with a small plus.

He's an intriguing player come TDL because he is producing near a 60pt pace as a centerman. If Lindholm was doing the same, his value would be 1st +++.

To me it still comes down to injury potential with Monahan. Any trade at TDL should have conditions on it for games played in the playoffs.

Monahan has far exceeded my expectations as a Habs fan. I see him as a 2nd round pick + at TDL with potential for a 1st round pick if there is some salary coming back (like RyJo)

 

[Hunter368]

He's an intriguing player come TDL because he is producing near a 60pt pace as a centerman. If Lindholm was doing the same, his value would be 1st +++.

To me it still comes down to injury potential with Monahan. Any trade at TDL should have conditions on it for games played in the playoffs.

Monahan has far exceeded my expectations as a Habs fan. I see him as a 2nd round pick + at TDL with potential for a 1st round pick if there is some salary coming back (like RyJo)

I've stated my opinion multi times on his potential value, which is the same as yours 2nd or 2rd with small plus to a team that his play style fits & fills a team need. So the purpose of my reply is not to debate that.

More this reply is about the Lindholm comment, GM's look at more then just a small sample size and look at a bigger body of work. Plus many teams at the TDL give up assets on bigger players with the intent of resigning them often. Fair to say most hockey people think/assume Lindholm will rebound on a new team with a new contract so will have strong interest out there to resign him so are likely more willing to pay 1st++ for him. Does any team in the NHL want to resign Monahan long term? Or resign him for more then 1-2 years, dude has a extremely short expiry date on him, even many Habs fans on your own board keep repeating trade him fast before he gets injured (he sits out some practices to give his body a chance to heal/rest through the year, everyone knows its just a matter of time). I think any/most GM trading for Lindholm will see it as a long term investment and any GM trading for Monahan will see it as purely rental or at best a 1-2 year investment.......meaning Lindholm value will be higher then Monahan IMO. IMO Lindholm value will be higher and viewed as a long term investment, Monahan value will be viewed more as disposable (or near disposable) by GM's (meaning very short term investment, pure rental or at most 1-2 years). Lindholm will get a long term deal after this year, Monahan will get 1-2 year deals until he retires likely. Nobody is signing Monahan to a 4+ year deal. IMO

 

[SwordSlash666]

What's funny is Monahan is gonna be traded for a late first or a second + something else and in both cases, the success rate is not that high to hit on a great player at the draft. But so many people in this thread battle for the difference like it's a life or death matter.

 

[vokiel]

What's funny is Monahan is gonna be traded for a late first or a second + something else and in both cases, the success rate is not that high to hit on a great player at the draft. But so many people in this thread battle for the difference like it's a life or death matter.

It's the difference between winning the cup or not which matters to GMs. That's why a player like Paul Gaustad gets traded with a 4th for a 1st round pick at the TDL.

btw Habs have low picks we wish we could get rid of.

 

[Miller Time]

I've stated my opinion multi times on his potential value, which is the same as yours 2nd or 2rd with small plus to a team that his play style fits & fills a team need. So the purpose of my reply is not to debate that.

More this reply is about the Lindholm comment, GM's look at more then just a small sample size and look at a bigger body of work. Plus many teams at the TDL give up assets on bigger players with the intent of resigning them often. Fair to say most hockey people think/assume Lindholm will rebound on a new team with a new contract so will have strong interest out there to resign him so are likely more willing to pay 1st++ for him. Does any team in the NHL want to resign Monahan long term? Or resign him for more then 1-2 years, dude has a extremely short expiry date on him, even many Habs fans on your own board keep repeating trade him fast before he gets injured (he sits out some practices to give his body a chance to heal/rest through the year, everyone knows its just a matter of time). I think any/most GM trading for Lindholm will see it as a long term investment and any GM trading for Monahan will see it as purely rental or at best a 1-2 year investment.......meaning Lindholm value will be higher then Monahan IMO. IMO Lindholm value will be higher and viewed as a long term investment, Monahan value will be viewed more as disposable (or near disposable) by GM's (meaning very short term investment, pure rental or at most 1-2 years). Lindholm will get a long term deal after this year, Monahan will get 1-2 year deals until he retires likely. Nobody is signing Monahan to a 4+ year deal. IMO

Interesting take.

The assumption that Lindholm will re-sign with the team trading for him at the deadline is fair, but imo at best a 60/40 proposition.

Unless there is permission granted to get an agreement in place before the trade, not sure the acquiring GM will pay much of a premium for the advance negotiating rights that come with the UFA acquisition.

That negligible "pro" (vs Monahan's less secure long term retention) is a variable... But so is the relative cap impact.

An acquiring team may have to offload or send back unwanted cap hits, which will depress the return... And a team with cap space to fit the full hit might also have other needs they want to address. Monahan's small cap hit represents a positive variable.

Last thing I'd say is that the shorter next contract that Monahan likely has to settle for (though personally, I'd have no hesitation giving him 2-4yrs), might actually be a preferable next contract commitment to the 6-7 yrs Lindholm may well be seeking. The buyer might well want Lindholm as a deadline acquisition to boost a cup run and willingly pass on giving him the term he's likely seeking & to get on the open market.

Lots of possibilities. Not sure that your assumptions are more compelling than the ones that suggest the return for the two players will be closer rather than farther apart.

We'll see

 

[Hunter368]

Interesting take.

The assumption that Lindholm will re-sign with the team trading for him at the deadline is fair, but imo at best a 60/40 proposition.

Unless there is permission granted to get an agreement in place before the trade, not sure the acquiring GM will pay much of a premium for the advance negotiating rights that come with the UFA acquisition.

That negligible "pro" (vs Monahan's less secure long term retention) is a variable... But so is the relative cap impact.

An acquiring team may have to offload or send back unwanted cap hits, which will depress the return... And a team with cap space to fit the full hit might also have other needs they want to address. Monahan's small cap hit represents a positive variable.

Last thing I'd say is that the shorter next contract that Monahan likely has to settle for (though personally, I'd have no hesitation giving him 2-4yrs), might actually be a preferable next contract commitment to the 6-7 yrs Lindholm may well be seeking. The buyer might well want Lindholm as a deadline acquisition to boost a cup run and willingly pass on giving him the term he's likely seeking & to get on the open market.

Lots of possibilities. Not sure that your assumptions are more compelling than the ones that suggest the return for the two players will be closer rather than farther apart.

We'll see

Of course all depends in all trades of all kinds how the GM getting the player views him long vs short term and how much. I think most or all would agree that Monahan has increased his trade value since signing his current deal and Lindholm value has decreased a bit after this year. My experiences the return on a UFA doesn't increase or decrease much regardless of contract status (some of course, but not huge), bc any GM trading for a player who he wants to resign, he's confident he can resign him. Neither player is perfect by any means, both have some very situational pro/cons about their play. Best part of Monahan outside of his offensive ability is his extremely low cap. Monahan likely agreed to sign with a rebuilding Habs as a "prove it" contract with the intent of being traded to a good team at the TDL for a chance at a cup (this has also been reported by insiders, the agreement between him and Habs). TDL aside, it will be interesting his next contract this summer, with who, how much and how long.

For me specifically, I would talking the Flames about Lindholm, getting permission to talk to his agent, etc. Lindholm has proven he's very good over a big body of work, especially with talented players. The cost to get Lindholm likely means I wouldn't be interested in also getting Monahan as a middle six winger which is far less need on the Jets. If the Jets missed out on Lindholm and 2-3 other potential 2C likely coming available as teams realize they are out of the playoffs, I would sooner roll with adding depth to RHD and bottom six forward depth, roll with Names at 2C. I wouldn't give up the top offer to get Monahan bc his injuries and poor fit with the Jets play style & pace. I would consider giving a call on him, but I doubt my offer would be the highest. Some team, some GM desperate to fill middle six role will offer more then the Jets would.

As you say we'll see, as always some fans on both sides will be upset with the return (too high or too low) we see it every year at the TDL.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

What's funny is Monahan is gonna be traded for a late first or a second + something else and in both cases, the success rate is not that high to hit on a great player at the draft. But so many people in this thread battle for the difference like it's a life or death matter.

The issue isn't trading those picks...
The issue is trading those picks for a player that ultimately isn't going to make a difference. Monahan will not make a difference on a playoff team.

 

[Miller Time]

Monahan will not make a difference on a playoff team.

This bad take doesn't get any less silly the more you say it.

 

[The Great Weal]

Monahan will not make a difference on a playoff team.

What are the lottery numbers for this week?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

What are the lottery numbers for this week?

I dont know. The lottery is pure random luck and follows no statistical data or trends.


Stating Monahan will not have an impact on a playoff team has nothing to do with pure random luck.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Ta

Monahan is added cost for the acquiring team unless Montreal takes back salary.

Whether Monahan makes half of what Colorado pays Johansen is irrelevant if the Avs are keeping Johansen.

Taking back can part of deal dependent on what the return is.They won't need to retention on his contract as the owing on it is so low.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Ta

Taking back can part of deal dependent on what the return is.They won't need to retention on his contract as the owing on it is so low.

Neither are really a fit on the Avs. Hard to imagine the Avs paying your ask to end up in a similar place.