Speculation: Monahan forward most likely dealt first

[Miller Time]

If I could bring him in to use him on the wing and as someone who can slot in for key face offs and he's depth scorer for my team, I would be comfortable with that, but the price for a depth scorer versus a "2nd line centre" are clearly not the same thing.

Barbashev went to the knights last year for a recent (2021) 1st round pick prospect.
Barbashev was 7th in ice time for the Knights through the playoffs among forwards.
Barbashev, like Monahan, had the versatility to play at C or W, on the PP or PK, and provided solid secondary scoring for them

i don't know what you think the "price for a 2nd line C" is... and what the "price for a depth scorer" is...

reality from every previous deadline we've seen is that the "price" is always "it depends". The most recent precedents suggest that a player with Monhan's ability/impact/current performance is somewhere around a late 1st. Nothing about that should be shocking or controversial to any hockey fan paying attention, regardless of fan base.

henrique, about the same, +/- given the cap challenge (an important and seemingly overlooked value impact on whatever return Monahan does eventually trigger).

 

[Snowman]

this is not an accurate assessment in the least


who do Namestinikov and Lowry play with? Context matters, both fwds and def.


I get fans not wanting a specific player, but throwing around baseless claims while ignoring the huge role that roster context plays in point production is... fascinating.

Monahan's level of play this year, and last, is easily at a quality level on par with a top-6 player on a playoff team. Not even remotely questionable. He's been better than just about any of the forwards the habs had in their lineup in the year they went to the cup finals.

the injury concerns are legit... that's one thing. But these silly narrative that rely on poor cherry picked individual statistical comparisons is... silly

True. Montreal fans cherry picking the one or two thing's Monahan is good at does not increase his value.

Excuses, like who Monahan plays with are mitigated by a lot of the advanced stats that have been listed in this thread and level the playing field.

Let's see some of your facts for proving that Monahan is a PP and 5 on 5 play driver. Once again there are plenty of advanced stat and eye test posts in this thread that demonstrate that what I posted is an accurate assessment of Monahan.

I understand Montreal fans wanting to do the pump and dump, but you not wanting to believe stats and facts isn't a reason for the rest of us to dismiss them.

If you have some actual facts that back your position, post them, as the fans that disagree with you have.

Just because you don't want to accept facts, doesn't make them invalid.

 

[Andy]

True. Montreal fans cherry picking the one or two thing's Monahan is good at does not increase his value.

Excuses, like who Monahan plays with are mitigated by a lot of the advanced stats that have been listed in this thread and level the playing field.

Let's see some of your facts for proving that Monahan is a PP and 5 on 5 play driver. Once again there are plenty of advanced stat and eye test posts in this thread that demonstrate that what I posted is an accurate assessment of Monahan.

I understand Montreal fans wanting to do the pump and dump, but you not wanting to believe stats and facts isn't a reason for the rest of us to dismiss them.

If you have some actual facts that back your position, post them, as the fans that disagree with you have.

Just because you don't want to accept facts, doesn't make them invalid.

This post reads as someone who hasn’t watched Monahan play at all

 

[Guy Larose]

With the rumor about the Habs possibly looking to move Barron for a similarly aged forward is there a Monahan + Barron for conditional 1st / Roster player (Kupari / Gustafsson) + B level forward prospect?

There are no rumors, just bored people making stuff up in this thread.

 

[CDN24]

Yes or no. Is he an elite player?


Theres one Bob McKenzie. The rest are using teams and being used by teams. You can tell which teams are talking to these guys, right?


Theres one Bob McKenzie. The rest are using teams and being used by teams. You can tell which teams are talking to these guys, right?

He is not elite but being elite is not the question. Will he move at deadline or will he garner a 1st round pick has nothing to do with elite? who was the last elite player to move at the deadline? Its been a while. Lots of guys move at the deadline for 1st round picks or more but most are far from elite.

Last year Bertuzzi, Chychrun, hronek, (gavrikov and Korpisalo together),ekholm, (jake Mccabe and sam lafferty together), Tanner jeannot, Timo meier, Orlov, ryan Oreilly, and Tarasenko returned 1st round picks at or within a month of the deadline. How many are elite? Tarasenko and O' reiley used to be.

in 2022 Andrew Copp, Lindholm, Giroux, Hagel, Chiarot and Toffolli returned 1sts. Lindholm Giroux and possibly Hagel were elite at time of trade but each returned way more than a 1st.

In 2021 Anthony Mantha, Nick Foligno, David Savard, and (Zajac and Palmieri), returned a 1st- are they elite?

 

[Miller Time]

True. Montreal fans cherry picking the one or two thing's Monahan is good at does not increase his value.

Excuses, like who Monahan plays with are mitigated by a lot of the advanced stats that have been listed in this thread and level the playing field.

Let's see some of your facts for proving that Monahan is a PP and 5 on 5 play driver. Once again there are plenty of advanced stat and eye test posts in this thread that demonstrate that what I posted is an accurate assessment of Monahan.

I understand Montreal fans wanting to do the pump and dump, but you not wanting to believe stats and facts isn't a reason for the rest of us to dismiss them.

If you have some actual facts that back your position, post them, as the fans that disagree with you have.

Just because you don't want to accept facts, doesn't make them invalid.

Another "pump and dump" narrative eh?

Barking up the wrong tree dude. I'm of the opinion, based on several years of watching Monahan play, that as long as the medical team gives the green light, best case is for Montreal to extend him for 3-4yrs.

If they can do that and give him a cup shot with a contender while getting assets in return, taking advantage of the premiums consistently paid for similar rental assets at the deadline, great. But I'd be just as happy for him to finish the year and re-sign in Mtl.

As for your stats... They've been presented, discussed, argued as nauseum.

The inability for some posters to recognize the huge role roster context plays in statistical outcomes is... Not surprising (I've been around awhile lol). But nonetheless, makes for some pretty terrible takes & ungrounded assessments.

Bottom line remains that his production, even ignoring the eye test, situates him in a late 1st to late 1st+ deadline return.

Cap hit works in Habs favour
Injury concerns work against

End result will most likely be right around first +.... Or equivalent prospect.

I'll happily eat crow if he returns much less than that, will be interesting to see if you do the same.

 

[Snowman]

Another "pump and dump" narrative eh?

Barking up the wrong tree dude. I'm of the opinion, based on several years of watching Monahan play, that as long as the medical team gives the green light, best case is for Montreal to extend him for 3-4yrs.

If they can do that and give him a cup shot with a contender while getting assets in return, taking advantage of the premiums consistently paid for similar rental assets at the deadline, great. But I'd be just as happy for him to finish the year and re-sign in Mtl.

As for your stats... They've been presented, discussed, argued as nauseum.

The inability for some posters to recognize the huge role roster context plays in statistical outcomes is... Not surprising (I've been around awhile lol). But nonetheless, makes for some pretty terrible takes & ungrounded assessments.

Bottom line remains that his production, even ignoring the eye test, situates him in a late 1st to late 1st+ deadline return.

Cap hit works in Habs favour
Injury concerns work against

End result will most likely be right around first +.... Or equivalent prospect.

I'll happily eat crow if he returns much less than that, will be interesting to see if you do the same.

I haven't argued his value to all teams at all. I've just pointed out that it is unlikely Winnipeg pays the price Montreal fans are asking as Monahan isn't a fit for the Jets.

I also pointed out that posters that disagree with you have posted statistical facts to back their position, while your position is "Monahan is good, take my word for it. I have nothing to back that up, but take my word for it." Which is silly.

Could some GM panic and make a dumb move? Of course they do it all the time.

So while I believe that Chevy is savvy enough to know that Monahan doesn't provide enough value to Winnipeg to warrant a 1st round pick being involved, that's not saying that some other GM may think differently.

 

[Miller Time]

I haven't argued his value to all teams at all. I've just pointed out that it is unlikely Winnipeg pays the price Montreal fans are asking as Monahan isn't a fit for the Jets.

Could some GM panic and make a dumb move? Of course they do it all the time.

So while I believe that Chevy is savvy enough to know that Monahan doesn't provide enough value to Winnipeg to warrant a 1st round pick being involved, that's not saying that some other GM may think differently.

It's one thing to provide an opinion that you don't like the fit, it's another to throw around weak & ungrounded player assessments as some sort of proff that the player has little value.

That's the difference.

I don't think there's a need or fit for the Habs to pay the trade price it would cost to target Josh Morrissey... Doesn't mean I think he's not a high quality/elite top pairing dman...

 

[Snowman]

It's one thing to provide an opinion that you don't like the fit, it's another to throw around weak & ungrounded player assessments as some sort of proff that the player has little value.

That's the difference.

I don't think there's a need or fit for the Habs to pay the trade price it would cost to target Josh Morrissey... Doesn't mean I think he's not a high quality/elite top pairing dman...

As I said earlier, everything I said had been backed by statistical information in this thread. So not baseless at all.

You're the one throwing around baseless rebuttals. All you have provided to this point is : "Monahan is good, because I say so."

Let's see something to back that up. There's plenty in this thread that quashes your position.

 

[gritdash60]

Owen Tippett just got 50million over 8 years while having a career high of 49 points. Monahan has scored 82 in 78GP, and is now on pace for 58 points, so his next contract is probably like 75 million over 5 years since hes older (LOL). I really hope any of Red Wings division rivals really think thats a good idea.

 

[Baksfamous112]

True. Montreal fans cherry picking the one or two thing's Monahan is good at does not increase his value.

Excuses, like who Monahan plays with are mitigated by a lot of the advanced stats that have been listed in this thread and level the playing field.

Let's see some of your facts for proving that Monahan is a PP and 5 on 5 play driver. Once again there are plenty of advanced stat and eye test posts in this thread that demonstrate that what I posted is an accurate assessment of Monahan.

I understand Montreal fans wanting to do the pump and dump, but you not wanting to believe stats and facts isn't a reason for the rest of us to dismiss them.

If you have some actual facts that back your position, post them, as the fans that disagree with you have.

Just because you don't want to accept facts, doesn't make them invalid.

I hope you understand that anything that Montreal (or any other team) fans says has no value or meaning in a possible trade between two teams/GMs.

 

[Adam da bomb]

He is not elite but being elite is not the question. Will he move at deadline or will he garner a 1st round pick has nothing to do with elite? who was the last elite player to move at the deadline? Its been a while. Lots of guys move at the deadline for 1st round picks or more but most are far from elite.

Last year Bertuzzi, Chychrun, hronek, (gavrikov and Korpisalo together),ekholm, (jake Mccabe and sam lafferty together), Tanner jeannot, Timo meier, Orlov, ryan Oreilly, and Tarasenko returned 1st round picks at or within a month of the deadline. How many are elite? Tarasenko and O' reiley used to be.

in 2022 Andrew Copp, Lindholm, Giroux, Hagel, Chiarot and Toffolli returned 1sts. Lindholm Giroux and possibly Hagel were elite at time of trade but each returned way more than a 1st.

In 2021 Anthony Mantha, Nick Foligno, David Savard, and (Zajac and Palmieri), returned a 1st- are they elite?

In 2022 Copp got a 2nd that became a 1st if Rangers make ECF, plus a prospect who capped out as a 4th liner. After putting up a lot more points. Is a conditional second something MTL would take?
I would argue that Chych, Meier are elite when lined up next to Monahan.
Vancouver felt like Hronek was the missing piece and as soon as they got him they put him next to Hughes. I don't think any team views Monahan in the same light.
I agree with the rest of your point that alot of non-elite guys go firsts at tdl.

Also consider how many of those players were immediately resigned by teams trading for them. Monahan while he may stay healthy for 1 playoffs, I don't think any team is considering him more than a a rental.

 

[Miller Time]

As I said earlier, everything I said had been backed by statistical information in this thread. So not baseless at all.

You're the one throwing around baseless rebuttals. All you have provided to this point is : "Monahan is good, because I say so."

Let's see something to back that up. There's plenty in this thread that quashes your position.

You choosing to dismiss everything that doesn't fit your opinion speaks for itself.

Like I said, see you in a few weeks.

 

[Snowman]

You choosing to dismiss everything that doesn't fit your opinion speaks for itself.

Like I said, see you in a few weeks.

I'm the one backing up my opinion with stats, you're the one ignoring anything that doesn't match your preconceived, unsubstantiated opinion.

Don't try and pin your tactics on me.

I've substantiated my opinion.

You haven't.

 

[waitin425]

I want everyone to remember something here.

We have a 22g/58pt pace centremen, with a 55 percent faceoff percentage who can be had for under a million dollars cap hit available. Real time money around 500k.

You can pretty much have him without having to make any salary adjustments, or at the very least minor ones.

He has value. He will be in high demand. The price for the Habs will have to be matched (whatever it is) or we retain and try to resign him ourselves.

You don't have to play him on your 2nd line to make this trade. He is paid like a 4th liner, and you can't tell me you have any 3rd or 4th liner that produces to thus level.

Let's all just wait and see how this shakes out.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I want everyone to remember something here.

We have a 22g/58pt pace centremen, with a 55 percent faceoff percentage who can be had for under a million dollars cap hit available. Real time money around 500k.

You can pretty much have him without having to make any salary adjustments, or at the very least minor ones.

He has value. He will be in high demand. The price for the Habs will have to be matched (whatever it is) or we retain and try to resign him ourselves.

You don't have to play him on your 2nd line to make this trade. He is paid like a 4th liner, and you can't tell me you have any 3rd or 4th liner that produces to thus level.

Let's all just wait and see how this shakes out.

Because nobody has a 3rd or 4th liner playing 18 minutes a night



It's crazy that Habs fans still can't understand this. He's producing because he gets thr very best opportunities on a weak Montreal team. His production gets cut significantly on any other team in the league where he's no longer getting 18 minutes a night and #1PP duties and instead gets ~14 minutes and #2PP duties. Its a fact.

 

[waitin425]

Because nobody has a 3rd or 4th liner playing 18 minutes a night



It's crazy that Habs fans still can't understand this. He's producing because he gets thr very best opportunities on a weak Montreal team. His production gets cut significantly on any other team in the league where he's no longer getting 18 minutes a night and #1PP duties and instead gets ~14 minutes and #2PP duties. Its a fact.

How much does it cut?

Quantify that for me? How many less points does he get? How much less PP time? Please...let me know?

Does you 3rd or 4th line guys score at the same pace if they were placed in Monahans position? Do they cost as little as Monahan?

At his price point, UFA status m, and his output....he has value. I'm not getting off that track, no matter how you want to twist it.

Ill pull one stat based on you referencing 18 minutes. He is 82nd for all forwards in points per 60 minutes. Assuming there are 96 first line players league wide (3 per team x 32 (and I know some teams have more, some less)), what does that stat tell ya?

 

[Miller Time]

I'm the one backing up my opinion with stats, you're the one ignoring anything that doesn't match your preconceived, unsubstantiated opinion.

Don't try and pin your tactics on me.

I've substantiated my opinion.

You haven't.

Go back and read already posted items.

You offered a weak assessment to poorly substantiate your opinion, as I pointed out in my first reply to you.

Repeating the same empty response doesn't change that.

See you in a few weeks lol

 

[John Mandalorian]

How much does it cut?

Quantify that for me? How many less points does he get? How much less PP time? Please...let me know?

Does you 3rd or 4th line guys score at the same pace if they were placed in Monahans position? Do they cost as little as Monahan?

At his price point, UFA status m, and his output....he has value. I'm not getting off that track, no matter how you want to twist it.

Monahan is added cost for the acquiring team unless Montreal takes back salary.

Whether Monahan makes half of what Colorado pays Johansen is irrelevant if the Avs are keeping Johansen.

 

[LesCanadiens]

Because nobody has a 3rd or 4th liner playing 18 minutes a night



It's crazy that Habs fans still can't understand this. He's producing because he gets thr very best opportunities on a weak Montreal team. His production gets cut significantly on any other team in the league where he's no longer getting 18 minutes a night and #1PP duties and instead gets ~14 minutes and #2PP duties. Its a fact.

Lol. What a rediculous comment. He's productive because he's talented!

Lol. Now I thought I've heard every ridiculous take as to why Monahan isn't a valuable player, but THIS one takes the cake! So let's understand this "logic". You can take any 3rd/4th line plug and turn him, by magic, into a near 60pt player, just by playing him on the 2nd line and giving him pp time. LMFAO! .

Good one!!

 

[waitin425]

Monahan is added cost for the acquiring team unless Montreal takes back salary.

He sure is. It will be exceptionally easier for any team to move out comparable salary for Monohan, then moving out comparable salary for say.....Lindholm. Habs can absorb some salary coming back.

 

[Snowman]

Go back and read already posted items.

You offered a weak assessment to poorly substantiate your opinion, as I pointed out in my first reply to you.

Repeating the same empty response doesn't change that.

See you in a few weeks lol

You are hilarious. You provide no factual evidence only your opinion. There are zero factual posts on this thread that dispute anything I've posted. Only lame excuses blaming other players for Monahan's poor performance.

But somehow, I, the ONLY one between us that has substantiated their opinion is unreasonable.

Repeating your same uninformed responses while steadfastly refusing to provide anything factual. Just makes you sound ignorant.

 

[Miller Time]

You are hilarious. You provide no factual evidence only your opinion. There Asta zero factual posts on this thread that dispute anything I've posted. Only lame excuses blaming other players for Monahan's poor performance.

But somehow, I, the ONLY one between us that has substantiated their opinion is unreasonable.

Repeating your same uninformed responses while steadfastly refusing to provide anything factual. Just makes you sound ignorant.

I'm sorry, but what's your point? Repeating yourself over and over again doesn't improve the poor argument you've made since the start.

You don't like Monahan. Great.

You've got a terrible lens on player evaluation. Wonderful.

You don't understand team sport. Bravo.

Offer something new or remotely interesting, or move on already.

 

[ole ole]

Well, most teams have 4 forwards on the 1st unit, Monahan has 15 PP points, ranks 35th in the league among forwards. And that's on a pretty terrible PP, let's be honest, Montreal isn't exactly a juggernaut offensively.

How many teams have 4 forwards ahead of Monahan on that list? One. The NY Rangers.

Monahan has more PP points than Tavares and is tied with Matthews and Marner.

Monahan has the same PP points as Nugent-Hopkins and has played exactly 0 minutes with either McDavid or Draisatl.

The idea that Monahan can't help a "good" PP is insane.

The idea that he isn't worth more than a 3rd round pick is even more insane.

Nicely summed up.

 

[ole ole]

So let's understand this "logic". You can take any 3rd/4th line plug and turn him, by magic, into a near 60pt player, just by playing him on the 2nd line and giving him pp time. LMFAO! .

Good one!!

Please say your kidding . No one would be that dense to make that claim.