Speculation: Monahan forward most likely dealt first

[Romang67]

I'm sorry, but what's your point? Repeating yourself over and over again doesn't improve the poor argument you've made since the start.

You don't like Monahan. Great.

You've got a terrible lens on player evaluation. Wonderful.

You don't understand team sport. Bravo.

Offer something new or remotely interesting, or move on already.

Genuine question: what's the point of bringing up all the supporting data in the world that shows that Monahan is bad defensively, bad at producing points 5v5, and inconsistent year to year on the PP, if every piece of data presented is waved away because data that doesn't support the preconceived notion that Monahan is good at those things cannot be true?

See my earlier point about begging the question. Statistics that show that Monahan is not good cannot be valid, because Monahan is good. Surely you understand how this argument doesn't hold water if we don't operate under the base assumption that Monahan is good?

 

[Snowman]

Genuine question: what's the point of bringing up all the supporting data in the world that shows that Monahan is bad defensively, bad at producing points 5v5, and inconsistent year to year on the PP, if every piece of data presented is waved away because data that doesn't support the preconceived notion that Monahan is good at those things cannot be true?

See my earlier point about begging the question. Statistics that show that Monahan is not good cannot be valid, because Monahan is good.

I had a physics teacher back in high school that used to joke:

"If the data doesn't support the desired conclusion, discard the data."

That seems to be the prevailing attitude of Montreal fans in this thread.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

How much does it cut?

Quantify that for me? How many less points does he get? How much less PP time? Please...let me know?

Does you 3rd or 4th line guys score at the same pace if they were placed in Monahans position? Do they cost as little as Monahan?

At his price point, UFA status m, and his output....he has value. I'm not getting off that track, no matter how you want to twist it.

Do you want me to actually provide you with an estimate based on historical data? Because that's easy enough to do but you won't like the number.

It's basically the reverse Arturri Lehkonen. A career 30 point guy as a bottom 6 forward on Montreal who has since become a 50-60 guy on Colorado's top line and top PP unit. Monahan goes from top line to a bottom 6 role and top PP to 2nd PP, he's going to be come a 35 point guy. With awful defensive metrics.


Ok. Nobody is suggesting he doesn't have value.

 

[Romang67]

To take the point to its extreme: if a player is known as a great goalscorer, and he stops scoring goals, the conclusion shouldn't be that goals aren't a good metric to determine who's a good goalscorer.

 

[waitin425]

Do you want me to actually provide you with an estimate based on historical data?

Historical Data?

Historically, he has been a very good player. Injuries are now behind him. How long have you been a hockey fan?

Sean Monahan Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Sean Monahan, a hockey player from Brampton, ONT born Oct 12 1994 who was active from 2010 to 2025.

www.hockeydb.com

 

[waitin425]

It's basically the reverse Arturri Lehkonen. A career 30 point guy as a bottom 6 forward on Montreal who has since become a 50-60 guy on Colorado's top line and top PP unit. Monahan goes from top line to a bottom 6 role and top PP to 2nd PP, he's going to be come a 35 point guy. With awful defensive metrics.


Ok. Nobody is suggesting he doesn't have value.

And just so I'm clear. You are trying to make your quantitative argument, with some obscure belief that he will pull a reverse Lehky? Incredible analytical abilities on you my friend.

 

[Romang67]

And just so I'm clear. You are trying to make your quantitative argument, with some obscure belief that he will pull a reverse Lehky? Incredible analytical abilities on you my friend.

I'd be wary of making fun of straw men arguments just because you don't understand the point being made. It can make you look quite silly.

Go look at Lehkonen's P/60 over the past 6 seasons. Then go look at his counting stats. You want to guess which one stays relatively the same, and which one depends heavily on usage? Keeping in mind that P/60 is a calculation of counting stats over time, as a helping aid.

 

[LesCanadiens]

Please say your kidding . No one would be that dense to make that claim.

Post #842. I quoted it. That's clearly the "logic" that is used. It's surreal how ridiculous it is. Monahan was a high first round pick for a reason. His numbers in CGY suffered due to unresolved hip problems. He could hardly move without excruciating pain. Otherwise he would more than likely produced as per pre injury. His hips are back to 100%. So he's performing as he should now. Not because he's being propped up.

What these uninformed posters don't get, is Dach was often played wing especially because he sucks at faceoffs. Monahan has been very versatile because he can play anywhere up and down the lineup and always makes a line better.

He's an excellent player and an excellent team guy. He would make a very real difference to add to any team. I have ZERO doubt he'll fetch a 1st or equivalent. And wouldn't rule out a touch more if bidding gets hot.

And I wouldn't be disappointed if we keep him.

Some of these posts here are comical. Hope you guys have the cahones to show up when you're proven wrong at or before the TDL. I'll be waiting to serve you your steaming hot plate of crow .

 

[waitin425]

I'd be wary of making fun of straw men arguments just because you don't understand the point being made. It can make you look quite silly.

Go look at Lehkonen's P/60 over the past 6 seasons. Then go look at his counting stats. You want to guess which one stays relatively the same, and which one depends heavily on usage? Keeping in mind that P/60 is a calculation of counting stats over time, as a helping aid.

What the hell are you guys talking about? I didn't bring Lehky into this. I fail to see what Lehky has to do with what Monahan is currently doing and how much he is getting paid.

 

[Romang67]

What the hell are you guys talking about? I didn't bring Lehky into this. I fail to see what Lehky has to do with what Monahan is currently doing and how much he is getting paid.

Lehkonen is an example of what you can get out of putting a player with alright production rate 5v5 in a position where his ice time goes up.

Monahan would be an example of the opposite if he goes to play on the 3rd or 4th line and gets less PP time.

Hope that helps.

 

[YP44]

Montreal should deal him before he gets injured. they are going to make out quite well with Monahan.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'd be wary of making fun of straw men arguments just because you don't understand the point being made. It can make you look quite silly.

Go look at Lehkonen's P/60 over the past 6 seasons. Then go look at his counting stats. You want to guess which one stays relatively the same, and which one depends heavily on usage? Keeping in mind that P/60 is a calculation of counting stats over time, as a helping aid.

It's incredible quite frankly. I didn't know it was possible for people to lack thinking skills like this.


I'm honestly floored at how this interaction with him is going.

 

[Miller Time]

Genuine question: what's the point of bringing up all the supporting data in the world that shows that Monahan is bad defensively, bad at producing points 5v5, and inconsistent year to year on the PP, if every piece of data presented is waved away because data that doesn't support the preconceived notion that Monahan is good at those things cannot be true?

See my earlier point about begging the question. Statistics that show that Monahan is not good cannot be valid, because Monahan is good. Surely you understand how this argument doesn't hold water if we don't operate under the base assumption that Monahan is good?

"Statistics that show Monahan is not good"

Until you can recognize the massive logical flaw in that very sentence, no point in going further. Ppl who don't understand statistics would do well not to build opinions on them.

Lots of good free resources to learn about statistics. That's probably a good starting point... At least if you want to offer a take that doesn't suck lol

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

This is the same stuff we went through with the Chiarot trade. He'll get a 1st, or am asset equivalent to a 1st, because that's what GMs will value a player of his level at the deadline. Whether or not you agree with that is your issue, but there is a ton of precedent for it.

 

[Miller Time]

Lehkonen is an example of what you can get out of putting a player with alright production rate 5v5 in a position where his ice time goes up.

Monahan would be an example of the opposite if he goes to play on the 3rd or 4th line and gets less PP time.

Hope that helps.

If you think that increases minutes is the biggest catalyst to his increased production, you lack basic understanding of hockey.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

"Statistics that show Monahan is not good"

Until you can recognize the massive logical flaw in that very sentence, no point in going further. Ppl who don't understand statistics would do well not to build opinions on them.

Lots of good free resources to learn about statistics. That's probably a good starting point... At least if you want to offer a take that doesn't suck lol

Please, use those resources and learn something, anything about what you're trying to talk about. And then teach your fellow Habs fans what you've learned.


This thread is actually crazy.

 

[Miller Time]

Please, use those resources and learn something, then teach your fellow Habs fans what you've learned.


This thread is actually crazy.

Then please, by all means... Stop posting in it.

Offering nothing of value but crying and complaining about posters because you don't understand what you spend so much time following is... Crazy

 

[Romang67]

"Statistics that show Monahan is not good"

Until you can recognize the massive logical flaw in that very sentence, no point in going further. Ppl who don't understand statistics would do well not to build opinions on them.

Lots of good free resources to learn about statistics. That's probably a good starting point... At least if you want to offer a take that doesn't suck lol

Oh man.

Quit while you're behind, bud. You're just gonna have to trust me that people much more analytically inclined than you are betting on my ability to understand data.

If you think that increases minutes is the biggest catalyst to his increased production, you lack basic understanding of hockey.

His P/60 5v5 has remained close to the same level it has the past 5 years.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Lehkonen is an example of what you can get out of putting a player with alright production rate 5v5 in a position where his ice time goes up.

Monahan would be an example of the opposite if he goes to play on the 3rd or 4th line and gets less PP time.

Hope that helps.

Lehkonen's production didn't go up by playing more 5v5 minutes. It went up by playing top pp minutes with Makar, Mackinnon, and Rantanen. His EV production is the same with Colorado as it was with the habs. His pp production went up by like 900%.

Monahan would be producing even more if he got to play on that powerplay.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

There's even quite literally a study on HF that shows the correlation between Time on ice and production. It's strictly PP, but it gets the point across and the same logic can easily be applied to overall TOI.


It's a heavily studied topic and overwhelmingly the consensus is that as TOI increases, production increases. As TOI decreases, Production decreases.

Study - relationship between PP ice time & point production

Objective Recently there's been some discussion on the main board about the relationship between ice time and production. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between those two variables in a way that's objective, transparent, and systematic. My overall conclusion is...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Lehkonen is an example of what you can get out of putting a player with alright production rate 5v5 in a position where his ice time goes up.

Monahan would be an example of the opposite if he goes to play on the 3rd or 4th line and gets less PP time.

Hope that helps.

A 50 pt player on a 1st line is a guy who does not belong on a 1st line on a contender.

 

[DavidpauseReinbacher]

Should be happy if you get a 3rd

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

A 50 pt player on a 1st line is a guy who does not belong on a 1st line on a contender.

Certainly belonged on Colorado's 1st line in 2022.... Tell us how that went for the Avs.

 

[Double Dion]

It's incredible quite frankly. I didn't know it was possible for people to lack thinking skills like this.


I'm honestly floored at how this interaction with him is going.

You need to post more with Habs, Canucks and Rangers fans. This is mostly how it goes with those 3 groups here. Monahan would be an abysmal add for the Avs. Mittlestadt would be good. Lindholm would be good. Henrique would do a bit of what you need. Monahan would be a terrible add.

 

[Miller Time]

Oh man.

Quit while you're behind, bud. You're just gonna have to trust me that people much more analytically inclined than you are betting on my ability to understand data.

His P/60 5v5 has remained close to the same level it has the past 5 years.

Great. Now, how about you look at what happened to that human being "the past 5 years"...

Might help you understand why 2 yrs ago, a team paid a 1st to move him, after deploying him in bottom 6/ healthy scratch the year before

Again, using stats without an understanding of statistics makes for very poor assessments.

Numbers are just numbers, context is where any reasonable or useful meaning can be inferred... Unless you are talking video games... Though even there, I suspect EA 24 moneyhands will be a pretty useful top 6 addition if you're playing with cap on lol

Give it up. Move on. Enjoy the crow in a few weeks, heard it tastes better with a balsamic reduction