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Mo Rielly - "Our Norris Trophy Candidate"

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Toronto Bag Head said:
half ice, dermott wins, full ice Rielly wins :thumbu:
Click to expand...

Ahhhhh, come on..
We all know that it depends which way they're skating. If they're pointed at the offensive end, Rielly wins no question. But if they're pointed at the defensive end - ay yi yi... Dermott by a country mile!

Hahaaaa.. I kid, I kid..
Sort of..
 
Signing Mo's next contract is likely out of reach for us.. I don't know if Dubas can add this one to the "we can, and we will" statement.
 
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LeafGrief said:
I think there are quite a few people over the last few pages who explicitly want to get rid of Rielly. I've certainly seen a bunch. I understand your nuance and I think there's room for discussion there, but there are people who want to "get rid" of him. This one got 7 likes so far:



There is room for nuance and those posters might not be trying to run Rielly out of town at all costs, but I disagree with your premise that "No one wants to get rid of" players or Rielly. I've had explicit conversations about it on Reddit. It's practically the only thing that some people know how to do tbh.
Click to expand...

You're being a nice poster and all, but this thread is full of people who simply want rielly gone as anyone who can read can see, and anyone denying what we are all reading here is a wee bit cuckoo.
 
Defensive Stats

Of all Dmen with 500+ 5v5min (114 total I.e. approx top 4 dmen):

Goals Against Per 60min (all #1 dmen listed)

7. Hamilton 1.56
14. Ekblad 1.74
18. Letang 1.81
20. Rielly 1.85
21. Hedman 1.86
27. Weber 1.90
31. Fox 1.95
32. Doughty 1.97
34. Heiskanen 1.99
40. Toews 2.09
42. Spurgeon 2.11
44. Pionk 2.12
49. Pelech 2.23
50. Severson 2.23
51. Chychrun 2.23
56. Schmidt 2.28
59. Jones 2.30
60. McAvoy 2.31
68. Faulk 2.41
78. Fowler 2.50
84. Murphy 2.60
86. Josi 2.63
87. Hronek 2.64
94. Provorov 2.84
95. Burns 2.85
97. Giordano 2.86
100. Nurse 2.92
101. Carlson 2.96
108. Chabot 3.32
113. Dahlin 3.37


ExpectEd goals against

1. Pelech 1.64
2. Toews 1.65
6. Fox 1.80
7. Heiskanen 1.81
15. Weber 1.88
23. McAvoy 1.95
24. Spurgeon 1.95
26. Ekblad 1.96
37. Hedman 2.09
38. Josi 2.10
51. Carlson 2.19
57. Provorov 2.21
60. Faulk 2.22
63. Hamilton 2.23
68. Rielly 2.25
72. Hronek 2.30
74. Fowler 2.32
77. Murphy 2.33
79. Severson 2.37
80. Letang 2.38
81. Doughty 2.39
83. Burns 2.40
84. Chychrun 2.40
90. Jones 2.44
93. Pionk 2.48
94. Giordano 2.54
100. Dahlin 2.63
102. Schmidt 2.69
105. Nurse 2.76
108. Chabot 2.89
 
zeke said:
Defensive Stats

Of all Dmen with 500+ 5v5min (114 total I.e. approx top 4 dmen):

Goals Against Per 60min (all #1 dmen listed)

7. Hamilton 1.56
14. Ekblad 1.74
18. Letang 1.81
20. Rielly 1.85
21. Hedman 1.86
27. Weber 1.90
31. Fox 1.95
32. Doughty 1.97
34. Heiskanen 1.99
40. Toews 2.09
42. Spurgeon 2.11
44. Pionk 2.12
49. Pelech 2.23
50. Severson 2.23
51. Chychrun 2.23
56. Schmidt 2.28
59. Jones 2.30
60. McAvoy 2.31
68. Faulk 2.41
78. Fowler 2.50
84. Murphy 2.60
86. Josi 2.63
87. Hronek 2.64
94. Provorov 2.84
95. Burns 2.85
97. Giordano 2.86
100. Nurse 2.92
101. Carlson 2.96
108. Chabot 3.32
113. Dahlin 3.37


ExpectEd goals against

1. Pelech 1.64
2. Toews 1.65
6. Fox 1.80
7. Heiskanen 1.81
15. Weber 1.88
23. McAvoy 1.95
24. Spurgeon 1.95
26. Ekblad 1.96
37. Hedman 2.09
38. Josi 2.10
51. Carlson 2.19
57. Provorov 2.21
60. Faulk 2.22
63. Hamilton 2.23
68. Rielly 2.25
72. Hronek 2.30
74. Fowler 2.32
77. Murphy 2.33
79. Severson 2.37
80. Letang 2.38
81. Doughty 2.39
83. Burns 2.40
84. Chychrun 2.40
90. Jones 2.44
93. Pionk 2.48
94. Giordano 2.54
100. Dahlin 2.63
102. Schmidt 2.69
105. Nurse 2.76
108. Chabot 2.89
Click to expand...

isn't Hamilton considered a bad defender?

so which stat do you think is least influenced by QoT, QoC and situational deployment by the coach and actually gives a good idea who is legit a good defender?
 
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Toronto Bag Head said:
isn't Hamilton considered a bad defender?

so which stat do you think is least influenced by QoT, QoC and situational deployment by the coach and actually gives a good idea who is legit a good defender?
Click to expand...

Don't have to worry about usage tainting Riellys numbers in these kinds of comps because Rielly has never been remotely sheltered - quite the opposite.

In fact these comps are usually more unfair to rielly because a lot of these #1 dmen receive much easier usage than him.

As for any single number? It's best to look at all of them imo.
 
Toronto Bag Head said:
isn't Hamilton considered a bad defender?

so which stat do you think is least influenced by QoT, QoC and situational deployment by the coach and actually gives a good idea who is legit a good defender?
Click to expand...

Goals against is a team stat anyway so I'm skeptical of it's value for comparing players on different teams. Example _ I see Rielly is miles better than Chabot by this stat and it seems pretty obvious that the comparison is absurd considering how often OTT gets scored on.

Stats need a ton of context to begin with but when using team stats to compare individual players, the task gets even more complex so taking one stat like that and sorting players by that seems to be as useless as it gets.

Unless of course one has some sort of agenda, that's another story. ;)
 
zeke said:
Don't have to worry about usage tainting Riellys numbers in these kinds of comps because Rielly has never been remotely sheltered - quite the opposite.

In fact these comps are usually more unfair to rielly because a lot of these #1 dmen receive much easier usage than him.

As for any single number? It's best to look at all of them imo.
Click to expand...
im bored at the moment so what do you think of the question below, I just thought it up ...

pick which one best describes how to figure out who is a good defensive dman
  1. GA/60, xGA
  2. DZstarts% and PK time (coach deployed) and stats dont matter
 
Toronto Bag Head said:
im bored at the moment so what do you think of the question below, I just thought it up ...

pick which one best describes how to figure out who is a good defensive dman
  1. GA/60, xGA
  2. DZstarts% and PK time (coach deployed) and stats dont matter
Click to expand...

Depends on the situation. If the team is trying to win, then usage is pretty important. The coach would know the player better than just about anyone else, and he would have access to more relevant analytics.

If the team is just trying to develop players, the stats might mean more.
 
Toronto Bag Head said:
im bored at the moment so what do you think of the question below, I just thought it up ...

pick which one best describes how to figure out who is a good defensive dman
  1. GA/60, xGA
  2. DZstarts% and PK time (coach deployed) and stats dont matter
Click to expand...

Dzstarts% is useful but also needs context - I.e. you can't punish a player for lower dzone start% if his offense dictates giving him a lot of offensive zone starts too.

As for PK time it can be an indicator, but note that this is the first year that Rielly hasn't been a mainstay on the PK.....and that's due to having four other dmen for whom PK duty is one of their main assets. If the Leafs #6 dman was pushed out of the lineup, rielly would be right back on the PK like he always has been before.
 
There is so much hyperbole in this thread. Rielly for the Norris. Trade Rielly ASAP.

If Rielly isn't here, who takes over his role? We have no other player remotely like him on the roster. I saw a couple of people mention Dermott could fill his spot - really? Travis Dermott and his 3 points on the season can fill Rielly's role?

That said, the cap is a problem, but it's not like you're facing the Marner/Matthews situation of guys jumping from rookie contracts to huge money. He's already making 5M, so if he goes up to something like 7M it should be manageable. If it's much more there are two problems - you would be overpaying him, and now you're at the point where you might have to move Nylander or someone else important, which we should try to avoid (obviously).
 
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socko said:
I don't see Rielly having any more deficiencies than Marner. They're both top end players with big pieces missing.
Click to expand...

yes the forward who is trusted to play the second most amount of PK minutes has the same deficiencies.
lol
 
Have to be smart about where we spend money - I don’t think Rielly is a need with Sandin being close.
 
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I’ll never understand the Reilly hate around here, perhaps expectations are too high, because if he doesn’t play like an all star people talk about him like he shouldn’t even don the jersey. He’s our most versatile D man and has been for years. Is he perfect, no. Is he needed on this team, yes.
 
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Rielly Team D Ranks

#1 TOI
#1 ES TOI
#1 GLS
#1 ES GLS
#1 PTS
#1 ES PTS
#1 XGF%
#2 GF%
 
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Sign him for 5M or under shorter term or trade him this summer if he does not fit into our program ... he is a limited use player ... luv his leadership and skating ... hate his defensive skills and push for 4th forward job are hurting team night in night out
 
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