OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXV

[E-Train]

I don’t think they’re in a position to make that type of deal. That’s why I think that hasn’t happened.

Best system in baseball. They could make a deal easier than the Yankees. I’ll sit on Andujar’s bat for a while. He can get his D to average. Reactions and footwork. He can field the ball and has a big arm. Still too stiff at 23.

 

[JCProdigy]

I'd be much more upset if we were losing an arms race to Houston and Boston.

Sorry to say. The ship has passed. The Yankees already lost the literal arms race against Boston, Houston and even the Nats (Sale, Verlander, Scherzer). Same ownership/decision makers that "just didn't feel right" about signing Machado, felt the same about signing/trading those three.

 

[Cassano]

Lol

You created the luxury tax.

The Yankees routinely spent 60-70m more than the 2nd highest team. Up until 2013-14 it was 40m. In 2005, the Yankees payroll was 100m MORE than the Mets, who were 3rd highest.

I don't have any problem with teams spending. But please, let's stop the tortured fanbase angle here. It's ridiculous.

Yes, the Yankees operated like a big market team 15 years ago. None of that matters now.

They are now below the Mets + Mariners in payroll while simultaneously having WS aspirations for biggest franchise in sports history. Complete joke.

 

[Cassano]

I'd be much more upset if we were losing an arms race to Houston and Boston.

Neither of them showed interest in Harper. Neither of them showed interest in Machado.

They've done precisely **** all this winter.

What about the teams getting Harper/Machado? Chicago? L ****ing OL. LA? They've been making the splashes all along and still can't compete with the AL. Philly? That gets them to the bowl, but they're still the smallest dog there. Brewers aren't interested.

Our real competition isn't pursuing these guys.

Now, I totally agree with the idea that those teams are already better (particularly Boston) and the ball is our court to improve. Machado is not prerequisite to improve.

We already are losing arms race to both those teams. They are way better everywhere besides bullpen.

 

[Machinehead]

Sorry to say. The ship has passed. The Yankees already lost the literal arms race against Boston, Houston and even the Nats (Sale, Verlander, Scherzer). Same ownership/decision makers that "just didn't feel right" about signing Machado, felt the same about signing/trading those three.

I'll give you Verlander, but the Yankees just weren't competitive when Sale and Scherzer were on the market.

Our "rebuild" finished three years before it was supposed to, mostly because Judge just appeared.

 

[Machinehead]

We already are losing arms race to both those teams. They are way better everywhere besides bullpen.

Again, I agree with that, but that doesn't make Machado a solution.

$300m is the type of money you spend on a desperate need.

-Elite offensive talent? The Yankees have a handful of it.
-Third baseman? The Yankees have one.
-Big right-handed bat? The Yankees have too many.
-Power hitting? The Yankees more of that than any team in history.

Machado would have been a luxury. You don't spend 30 x 10 on a luxury.

 

[Cassano]

Again, I agree with that, but that doesn't make Machado a solution.

$300m is the type of money you spend on a desperate need.

-Elite offensive talent? The Yankees have a handful of it.
-Third baseman? The Yankees have one.
-Big right-handed bat? The Yankees have too many.
-Power hitting? The Yankees more of that than any team in history.

Machado would have been a luxury. You don't spend 30 x 10 on a luxury.

The best teams will always look to improve in ways.

We'll be seeing Luke Voit and Andujar play 'defense' for a full season barring some moves.

 

[Machinehead]

The best teams will always look to improve in ways.

We'll be seeing Luke Voit and Andujar play 'defense' for a full season barring some moves.

Nobody has been more vocal about our 1B issues than I have, but what 1B's are on the market?

Moving somebody there obviously hasn't been in the cards, or we would have done that.

 

[Cassano]

This all started when they chose Stephen Drew as a cheap alternative to Moncada. Keep in mind that the team was desperate for a SS at the time as well. Just made perfect sense.

Moncado went to the Sox, and was used to trade for a once in a gen pitcher who won them a title.

 

[Machinehead]

I would love to make a splash, but I'm just not sure there's a splash on the market that actually does something this team needs.

If a bonafide ace or elite 1B were available in free agency, I'd be screaming at them.

Matter of fact, I've been screaming at them to make a move. Today they did, and it was a good move.

 

[Machinehead]

The Yankees sorely needed versatility on defense and versatility in their lineup.

DJLM checks off every box.

The Yankees aren't stupid - they've seen the analytics. I anticipate that Andujar will see a lot of DHing this year. That's why we went out and got two infielders despite an optimistic prognosis on Didi.

I know everyone had this dream of flipping Andujar but it takes two teams to trade. The concerns about Andujar are available to the other 29 teams also. That, and I'm sure we're being hassled about Torres every time we dial the phone.

Get me another high-end starter and I think we can compete with Boston.

 

[LeetchisGod]

The Yankees sorely needed versatility on defense and versatility in their lineup.

DJLM checks off every box.

The Yankees aren't stupid - they've seen the analytics. I anticipate that Andujar will see a lot of DHing this year. That's why we went out and got two infielders despite an optimistic prognosis on Didi.

I know everyone had this dream of flipping Andujar but it takes two teams to trade. The concerns about Andujar are available to the other 29 teams also. That, and I'm sure we're being hassled about Torres every time we dial the phone.

Get me another high-end starter and I think we can compete with Boston.

Where is this starter coming from? We were the third best team in the AL last year and that hasn't changed.

 

[Machinehead]

Where is this starter coming from? We were the third best team in the AL last year and that hasn't changed.

Like it or not, we're committed to Stanton for 10 more seasons. We're committed to Judge for I-don't-care-how-many seasons.

That's our outfield. I would prefer not to have full-time DH's sitting around and Andujar is already headed in that direction.

To me, Frazier and Florial are totally available. Sonny Gray (for reasons I don't fully understand) has also generated significant interest.

That's the skeleton of your package.

 

[Machinehead]

You can say we're still the third best team, but you have to ask yourself what we're doing with Machado that we didn't already do last year.

Hit 10-15 more homers? (As opposed to Andujar) Yeah, we f***ing needed that. This team is just starving for power.

We could stand to walk more....except Machado doesn't do that particularly well.

We could sure as f*** hit more doubles, hit better with RISP, and hit for contract better. Machado is good at those. You know who else is good at those? Miguel Andujar.

This biggest thing about Machado is the defensive upgrade.

But are we giving Machado 300 million because he hits for contract and plays great defense? No. LaMahieu does that. Machado is commanding that because he can hit the ball 600 feet. We already do that better than any team ever.

 

[LeetchisGod]

Like it or not, we're committed to Stanton for 10 more seasons. We're committed to Judge for I-don't-care-how-many seasons.

That's our outfield. I would prefer not to have full-time DH's sitting around and Andujar is already headed in that direction.

To me, Frazier and Florial are totally available. Sonny Gray (for reasons I don't fully understand) has also generated significant interest.

That's the skeleton of your package.

Frazier's value has done nothing but decrease since we've gotten him. Florial is a raw and unproven. Gray is a head case. I don't see that package getting what we need.

 

[Machinehead]

Frazier's value has done nothing but decrease since we've gotten him. Florial is a raw and unproven. Gray is a head case. I don't see that package getting what we need.

Then we simply don't have the assets unless we go into our lineup and rob Peter to pay Paul.

And again, I'm not sure how much the "flip Andujar" trope is rooted in reality, and even if it is, I'm not sure the $300M price tag on that upgrade is worth it.

 

[LeetchisGod]

You can say we're still the third best team, but you have to ask yourself what we're doing with Machado that we didn't already do last year.

Hit 10-15 more homers? (As opposed to Andujar) Yeah, we ****ing needed that. This team is just starving for power.

We could stand to walk more....except Machado doesn't do that particularly well.

We could sure as **** hit more doubles, hit better with RISP, and hit for contract better. Machado is good at those. You know who else is good at those? Miguel Andujar.

This biggest thing about Machado is the defensive upgrade.

But are we giving Machado 300 million because he hits for contract and plays great defense? No. LaMahieu does that. Machado is commanding that because he can hit the ball 600 feet. We already do that better than any team ever.

I don't even want Machado. I am just generally frustrated with Cashman's moves of late. Gray was a failure. Stanton is overpaid for what he brings which is a worse version of Judge. Not at all what the team needed. The money that we are paying him could have been better spent. I don't trust him to identify and obtain what we need.

 

[Machinehead]

I don't even want Machado. I am just generally frustrated with Cashman's moves of late. Gray was a failure. Stanton is overpaid for what he brings which is a worse version of Judge. Not at all what the team needed. The money that we are paying him could have been better spent. I don't trust him to identify and obtain what we need.

I haven't been entirely satisfied with Cashman since this team re-entered contention either, but he identified and obtained something we needed today.

What we need, really, is defense and contract hitting. Did we really expect that to come from headline-grabbing players?

 

[LeetchisGod]

I haven't been entirely satisfied with Cashman since this team re-entered contention either, but he identified and obtained something we needed today.

What we need, really, is defense and contract hitting. Did we really expect that to come from headline-grabbing players?

Brantley, Lowrie and Murphy could have provided some of that besides being left handed. Something this lineup could really use. Cashman didn't go after any of them.

 

[Machinehead]

Let's say this is the lineup on opening day:

CF Hicks
2B Torres
RF Judge
LF Stanton
C Sanchez
DH Andujar
1B Bird (I guess)
SS Tulowitski
3B LaMahieu.

Two things: 1)I like this a lot and 2) It's clear as f***ing day where the flaw is.

That said, winter 2018-19 has been a horrendous market for first basemen, and first base as a whole looks like a dying position.

What happened to all the first basemen?

American League First Basemen Aren’t Good

Also, the Yankees will probably bat Judge second because they hate puppies, but there's nothing I can do about that.

 

[Machinehead]

Brantley, Lowrie and Murphy could have provided some of that besides being left handed. Something this lineup could really use. Cashman didn't go after any of them.

I agree with that. I would have liked any of those guys, and Murphy can play first.

 

[nyr2k2]

I remember last year FanGraphs came up with a calculation where they said 1 WAR is worth $9M. That always seemed high, but even going back five or six years, people were saying like $7M, so let's go with it.

Just assume Machado remains what he is and gives you 5.5-6.5 WAR. We're not going to try to project lineup effects or park factors or any of that. Just assume he stays the same. Now let's assume Andujar stays the same--again, no natural progression as he develops or anything, no chance he regresses--and he's a perennial 2.5 WAR guy. So here, you'd be getting an extra 3-4 WAR with Machado, which if we use the $9M/WAR figure, would price Manny at $27M-$36M each season just in what he is worth in excess of Andujar.

Again, I know I'm looking at it in an unrealistic manner, assuming everything stays exactly the same. Obviously guys will progress or regress in various areas resulting in WAR fluctuations. And then there's the whole thing about a Machado contract maybe creating problems down the road. The point is just to look at things as they stand now; doing that, for me (with no vested interest), it seems like Manny would absolutely be worth the money to upgrade over Andujar. Especially given that Andujar could then be used to help replenish the farm or to acquire another needed ML piece. Even ignoring Andujar, if Machado maintains his level of play for six or seven seasons, he's generating a value that far exceeds what you'd be paying him.

Just my take. Again, I have no real interest in it. It is crazy to me however to see a borderline generational talent and another elite talent, both still very young, both obviously wanting to play for the Yankees, and the Yankees not biting (yet). The times have changed, for sure.

 

[Machinehead]

I remember last year FanGraphs came up with a calculation where they said 1 WAR is worth $9M. That always seemed high, but even going back five or six years, people were saying like $7M, so let's go with it.

Just assume Machado remains what he is and gives you 5.5-6.5 WAR. We're not going to try to project lineup effects or park factors or any of that. Just assume he stays the same. Now let's assume Andujar stays the same--again, no natural progression as he develops or anything, no chance he regresses--and he's a perennial 2.5 WAR guy. So here, you'd be getting an extra 3-4 WAR with Machado, which if we use the $9M/WAR figure, would price Manny at $27M-$36M each season just in what he is worth in excess of Andujar.

Again, I know I'm looking at it in an unrealistic manner, assuming everything stays exactly the same. Obviously guys will progress or regress in various areas resulting in WAR fluctuations. And then there's the whole thing about a Machado contract maybe creating problems down the road. The point is just to look at things as they stand now; doing that, for me (with no vested interest), it seems like Manny would absolutely be worth the money to upgrade over Andujar. Especially given that Andujar could then be used to help replenish the farm or to acquire another needed ML piece.

Just my take. Again, I have no real interest in it.

In a vacuum, you're absolutely right, and this is sound analysis.

But when we're talking about the Yankees, we have to consider that in areas where they need help offensively, Andujar is almost as good as Machado. Where Machado really overtakes Andujar, is an area the Yankees are already elite at. That extra WAR and extra wRC+ is coming from the long ball.

So it's not as cut and dry as spending more money on extra WAR - you're spending more money on what the team already excels at.

And then there's the defense, which is really, the bulk of the upgrade. That's fine and dandy, but again, am I spending that $27-$37 on defense? No thanks. Defense is important but salary in MLB is dictated by three things: the long ball, the long ball, and the long ball. We don't need to pay a premium on that. We already do that better than any team in MLB history.

 

[JCProdigy]

I'll give you Verlander, but the Yankees just weren't competitive when Sale and Scherzer were on the market.

Our "rebuild" finished three years before it was supposed to, mostly because Judge just appeared.

Oh no doubt the timing wasn't the best on Sale but they weren't rebuilding when Scherzer was available. They also weren't rebuilding when they were outbidded for Moncada by Boston. I'm just saying that the top end rotation arms that are now pitching on the elite teams (Lets add Cole) are already accounted for. The Yanks could go after Kluber but?!?! Had to likely "settle" for Paxton because they used their bullets on the Ghost of Sonny Gray.

DJ LeMaheiu isn't the worst signing in the world but man the optics are pretty bad when your spending 24 mil on him over two years and he's an oppo hitting GB hitter where at Yankee stadium, that profiles out as a bad thing due to a small right field.

On Corbin, I wasn't hot on him but it's weird that they passed on him because they didn't want to go the sixth year...where he will be one year younger than JA Happ is right now.

I'll relate my feelings this way. I'm usually a very optimistic person regarding my sports teams (including the Rangers)...but man, I can't help but feel we're gonna be looking back on the Yankees 5-6 years from now and feeling about them the same as how we feel about the 2010-2016 Rangers teams. As in, close but not close enough.

 

[Machinehead]

I find the plight of first base really interesting. The analytics community has pretty much come to the conclusion that MLB has exactly one really good first baseman left (Paul Goldschmidt).

I think this has to do with how athletes are evolving. Gone are the days of a good hitter who is too fat/slow to play anywhere else. These days, the power hitters are athletic enough to play 3B, corner outfield, even catcher. As the years progress, we're going to see the power hitters flow even more towards CF, SS, and 2B, which has already reached its zenith in Houston.

It's going to become commonplace that first base is the worst player, if that isn't commonplace already.

Even Goldschmidt himself is a freak athlete and could probably play somewhere else if he was trained to.