I'm not sure I understand what you're saying. When they drafted Appel they had an additional year of scouting to work with. They'd have known if something happened along the way. AFAIK drafting out of HS and college works essentially the same. If you sign them they go into your organization otherwise they go back to school.
Sorry, you’re right, I wasn’t clear about what I was trying to say. I’m kinda back and forth between working and responding, so I probably rushed my response.
What I’m trying to say is that he got re-drafted twice and maybe somewhere along the line after getting re-drafted the second time, something happened. I can’t speak about it because I simply don’t know the facts or what went on behind the scenes, but obviously something changed.
While you’re right the Cole may not be the norm, neither is Appel. We’re both using extremes to support our sides of the argument.
The middle is probably the norm, even though I may think it leans towards Cole, there’s no sure fire way to say “Player A will be an Ace.” However, with the pedigree Cole had and the Yankees penchant for developing players, I feel fairly confident that he would have done well here, eventually. While they’ve only pumped out one true ace recently, they’ve done very well overall with pitchers. Montgomery has been good. Loaisaga shows flashes. Although not a Yankee pick, Sheffield was a top prospect that was coveted by many teams that went through their developmental system.
So I don’t think either one of us will ever be truly right or wrong.