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Player Discussion Mitch Marner

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IPS said:
Yeah I think Marner proved pretty capable to generate loads of offense without Matthews too.
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Loads of it? 5vs5 Advanced stats seem to indicate Marner struggles mightily without Matthews.

2020-present season, 5vs5, 2026 mins together, 615 minutes apart.

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GF% - Percentage of total Goals in games that team played that are for that team. GF*100/(GF+GA)
GF%Marner with Matthews: 63%
GF% Marner without Matthews: 36%
GF% Matthews without Marner: 56%
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SCGF% - Percentage of total Goals off of scoring chances in games that team played that are for that team. SCGF*100/(SCGF+SCGA)

Scgf% Marner with Matthews: 63%
Scgf% Marner without Matthews: 34%
Scgf% Matthews without Marner: 54%

I can list more advanced stats but generally Marners all look significantly worse without Matthews. While Matthews stays strong.
 
Antropovsky said:
Loads of it? 5vs5 Advanced stats seem to indicate Marner struggles mightily without Matthews.

2020-present season, 5vs5, 2026 mins together, 615 minutes apart.

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GF% - Percentage of total Goals in games that team played that are for that team. GF*100/(GF+GA)
GF%Marner with Matthews: 63%
GF% Marner without Matthews: 36%
GF% Matthews without Marner: 56%
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SCGF% - Percentage of total Goals off of scoring chances in games that team played that are for that team. SCGF*100/(SCGF+SCGA)

Scgf% Marner with Matthews: 63%
Scgf% Marner without Matthews: 34%
Scgf% Matthews without Marner: 54%

I can list more advanced stats but generally Marners all look significantly worse without Matthews. While Matthews stays strong.
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This goes bit against narrative that he is advanced stat darling. Or he might be, with Matthews .
Are you trying to break his PR team ?

Seriously, I was ok with this elite PK narrative until you brought facts into it.

What was it 8th on Leafs at goals allowed on pk /60 ? Someone braver than I can check what it translates into - league wide. 100th best on PK (at preventing goals) ?
 
Arzak said:
This goes bit against narrative that he is advanced stat darling. Or he might be, with Matthews .
Are you trying to break his PR team ?

Seriously, I was ok with this elite PK narrative until you brought facts into it.

What was it 8th on Leafs at goals allowed on pk /60 ? Someone braver than I can check what it translates into - league wide. 100th best on PK (at preventing goals) ?
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Matthews has played roughly 18% of the season without Marner on his line. If you extrapolated his stats with Marner and without Marner to 82 games. Matthews would produce 161% more even strength points without Marner vs with Marner at even strength.

That's pretty jawdropping and a decent dample size. Yet there are some on the board who have tried to spin the narrative that Matthews needs Marner? It's exactly the opposite based on the stats.

Imo some also oversell Marners playmaking ability too. Comparing him to Gretzky as early as last year. The fact that Domi averages more primary assists than Marner is telling, while playing a fraction of the time with Matthews than Marner. Even Matthews has just two first assists less than Marner and nobody would use his name in the same sentence as playmaker.
 
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Arzak said:
Same! Neither of our Top 3 should suffer JT.




But if someone has to ^^, Mitch who can elevate everyone would be my first choice. Also, we could play them strictly as our shout-down line(at least for playoffs- that way no ones regular season stats suffers)! Imagine Marner +JT shutting down the opposition 1st line while Willy and Matty are on the other two lines, hopefully scoring.

This line up is pretty much spot on, with hopefully Nylander/Bertuzzi/xxx getting as much ice time as JT/Marner.

1% chance Keefer will do it
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Marner is better defensively than Nylander, but I'm not sure even he can turn a line with JT centering it into a 'shut-down' line.
 
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I'm OK with attempting to go with a try with Marner on JT line to see if something can be made of it. I don't think a Bertuzzi Kadri cobo with Matthews will survive against lines that have a better offense than the capitals (about 26 other teams). Matthews won't be effective carrying these 2 defensively while being expected to score (my opinion). Run and gun isn't really a tried and tested playoff strategy when your top scorer is the one playing qb.
 
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Notsince67 said:
I'm OK with attempting to go with a try with Marner on JT line to see if something can be made of it. I don't think a Bertuzzi Kadri cobo with Matthews will survive against lines that have a better offense than the capitals (about 26 other teams). Matthews won't be effective carrying these 2 defensively while being expected to score (my opinion). Run and gun isn't really a tried and tested playoff strategy when your top scorer is the one playing qb.
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I liked them because they jammed the Caps net all night . Namely Bert was giving them fits . If they can do that to better teams that line will work . Was hoping Knies would of been good in that role but so far he hasn't be consistant .
I actually prefer Marner and Mathews separated .They tend to try and look for the high light reel goals a little to much rather than just take it to the net .

Tavares can use Marner fo sure , mostly on the D side , but would honestly be nice to see Marner and Nylander together . Not that either player needs each other but have a feeling it would be a pretty good combo. Either way i'd like to see Marner attack more and doubt that'll happen if he's with Mathews .
 
notDatsyuk said:
It was Bert who joined it originally, moving JT to the second unit. Not sure if Domi has had a turn, but with Mitch out JT has been moved back.
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I'd like to see Domi given a shot on PP1 over Tavares while Mitch is still out. I know Tavares got our lone PPG last game but the number of plays that died on his stick previous to that were unacceptable. Can't watch this guy slowly pivot on the halfboards and lose the puck battle before we can establish solid possession anymore. Teams clearly have it in their books to rush and outman him as soon as he touches it when we're trying to get set up.
 
Punch Drunk Loov said:
The idea that Matthews needs Marner to score goals is ridiculous.

This is not an insult to Marner. Players like Matthews, McDavid, Kucherov, Draisatl, Pastra are the absolute cream of the crop. They do not need 11M wingers for them to score goals.

Marner obviously helps both Auston and the Leafs at all facets of the game, but the concept that Matthews NEEDS Mitch to score is objectively wrong.
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Good analysis but who put that idea out there, the idea that 34 needs 16 to score? I've never read that anywhere.
 
TIGERCOOL said:
I'd like to see Domi given a shot on PP1 over Tavares while Mitch is still out. I know Tavares got our lone PPG last game but the number of plays that died on his stick previous to that were unacceptable. Can't watch this guy slowly pivot on the halfboards and lose the puck battle before we can establish solid possession anymore. Teams clearly have it in their books to rush and outman him as soon as he touches it when we're trying to get set up.
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At this time last year Tavares was near the top of the league in 50/50 battles. Tavares may no longer be a consistent 20+ minute a night forward but he's still a highly effective 17-18.5 minute centre. Tavares still has above average ability to control pucks and win battles along the boards he is still in the top 20% of the entire league.

The strategy you've outlined goes for everyone in the league when defending the PP.
 
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therealkoho said:
At this time last year Tavares was near the top of the league in 50/50 battles. Tavares may no longer be a consistent 20+ minute a night forward but he's still a highly effective 17-18.5 minute centre. Tavares still has above average ability to control pucks and win battles along the boards he is still in the top 20% of the entire league.

The strategy you've outlined goes for everyone in the league when defending the PP.
Click to expand...

Its hard to isolate PP1 vs. PP2 nunbers where there is going to be an obvious dropoff but digging deeper into the numbers, the PP with Tavares and without look like this:

With Tavares:
Shots/60: 70.29
High Danger Chances/60: 39.02
Goals/60: 10.22
Shooting%: 14.54

Without Tavares:
Shots/60: 47.94
High Danger Chances/60: 22.93
Goals/60: 9.38
Shooting%: 19.57

Tavares has been one of the more effective forwards on the PP for years and it looks like a good luck/bad luck thing this season but there may also be the benefit of the 2nd unit being more useful with him on it as well.
 
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DarkKnight said:
People have suggested they compliment each other as a counter to being “carried”. For example, last year when Matthews was out Marner had 7 points in 5 games, neither “needs” the other, but they augment.
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You are right:

Those 5 games Matthews was out with injury:
- powerplay Marner had 1 goal 4 assists and 5 points
- 5vs5 Marner had 2 assists in 5 games
- Tavares was moved into Matthews spot with Marner and Bunting
- Nylander was put on lines with Jarnkrok, Holmberg and Kerfoot.

Tavares was moved into Matthews spot on Marners line and Nylander was given the 3rd liners. So I'd say Nylander was the one most affected by Matthews injury.
 
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therealkoho said:
At this time last year Tavares was near the top of the league in 50/50 battles. Tavares may no longer be a consistent 20+ minute a night forward but he's still a highly effective 17-18.5 minute centre. Tavares still has above average ability to control pucks and win battles along the boards he is still in the top 20% of the entire league.

The strategy you've outlined goes for everyone in the league when defending the PP.
Click to expand...
Tavares is very underappreciated here. Even playoffs he came up big in the must win games. Watch the goals on YouTube from playoffs and he's very noticeable at key parts of big games.
Tavares 2023 playoffs key points:
Game 1 loss
- set up 3-1 goal
- key screen on 3-2 goal

Game 2 win:
- 2-0 goal (one face off and scored with quick release)
- contributed to 3-0 goal
- scored 4-1 goal
- created 7-2 goal (not that important given score)

Game 3 win
- nothing notable in highlights

Game 4 win:
- won face-off and key screen on 4-4 tying goal with 3 mins left in regulation

Game 5 loss:
- created 1-0 goal
- key screen/tip on 2-3 goal with 3 mins left in regulation

Game 6 win:
- was on ice for 1-0 goal
- scored OT winner.
 
DarkKnight said:
People have suggested they compliment each other as a counter to being “carried”. For example, last year when Matthews was out Marner had 7 points in 5 games, neither “needs” the other, but they augment.
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I understand that, I was merely illuminating the myth making that generates these narratives, such as and I'll paraphrase, that Matthews can only score with Marners direct input/help.

People seem to forget that at the start of last season when 16 and 91 were playing together and 88 was playing with 34. I remember that a lot of people were demanding that Keefe better smarten up this instant, and staple 16 to 34, which I suppose was to get 34 a better playmaker and get Matthews scoring again at a rate they deemed acceptable.

It's a little bit funny, but it seems to me that the people who were demanding that combo, are the same people that have a intense dislike for Mitch.
 
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therealkoho said:
I understand that, I was merely illuminating the myth making that generates these narratives, such as and I'll paraphrase, that Matthews can only score with Marners direct input/help.

People seem to forget that at the start of last season when 16 and 91 were playing together and 88 was playing with 34. I remember that a lot of people were demanding that Keefe better smarten up this instant, and staple 16 to 34, which I suppose was to get 34 a better playmaker and get Matthews scoring again at a rate they deemed acceptable.

It's a little bit funny, but it seems to me that the people who were demanding that combo, are the same people that have a intense dislike for Mitch.
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This would be a bit surprising since:

5vs5 2023
- in approx 500 5vs5 mins together, Nylander and Matthew's had 38 goals and only 14 against
- Nylander and Matthew's together had a GF% of 73%.
- Without Nylander, Matthews GF% dropped from 73% to 62%.
- Marner and Matthew's together had a GF% of 63%
- Marners GF% without Matthews was 36%. While Nylanders was 48% without Matthews.

GF% - Percentage of total Goals in games that team played that are for that team. GF*100/(GF+GA)

ULF_55 said:
So what are Matthews stats when The Little m is out of lineup?
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This year, this is what I calculated, someone else can confirm:

Matthews without Marner 2024
5vs5: 15 games 13 goals 21 points
Pace even strength: 82 games 72 goals 115 points

Matthews with Marner 2024
5vs5: 52 games 18 goals 28 points
Pace even strength: 82 games 28 goals 44 points
 
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Zybalto said:
Its hard to isolate PP1 vs. PP2 nunbers where there is going to be an obvious dropoff but digging deeper into the numbers, the PP with Tavares and without look like this:

With Tavares:
Shots/60: 70.29
High Danger Chances/60: 39.02
Goals/60: 10.22
Shooting%: 14.54

Without Tavares:
Shots/60: 47.94
High Danger Chances/60: 22.93
Goals/60: 9.38
Shooting%: 19.57

Tavares has been one of the more effective forwards on the PP for years and it looks like a good luck/bad luck thing this season but there may also be the benefit of the 2nd unit being more useful with him on it as well.
Click to expand...
Personally, I think our PP lacks movements and options.
It has nothing to do with having Bert instead of JT or whoever.
 
4-1-1 without Marner. 29 goals for 18 goals against.

Matthews
6 gp 4 goals 11 points

Tavares:
6 gp 4 goals 11 points

Nylander:
6gp 5 goals 9 points

Top guys are thriving.
 
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