Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[leafs in five]

Almost as bad as it was with him !

love to hang out in the Marner fan boi thread

 

[IPS]

It’s been 18 days since Mitch suffered his “mild” high ankle sprain. 21 days (a.k.a 3 weeks) on Thursday. If his injury is as mild as they say he could be back before the week is up. That is, assuming the Leafs aren’t lying through their teeth and it really isn’t as serious as Liljegren’s (6 weeks and 2 days) or Woll’s (12 weeks) high ankle sprains. More realistically he’s back sometime in early April.

It worries me too. Seems like they lied about the severity of every one of Matthews injuries.

I don't mind the lying in the sense that it gives the media and their bullshit a lot less to work with but the fans kinda want to know what to expect come playoff time.

Ideally they've giving Marner extra time because they can, the playoff race is not very desperate as the Leafs spot is pretty locked up right now.

 

[Notsince67]

It worries me too. Seems like they lied about the severity of every one of Matthews injuries.

I don't mind the lying in the sense that it gives the media and their bullshit a lot less to work with but the fans kinda want to know what to expect come playoff time.

Ideally they've giving Marner extra time because they can, the playoff race is not very desperate as the Leafs spot is pretty locked up right now.

I'm all for giving him as much time as he needs. The issue with all elite athletes though is that even a couple of weeks off can impact performance.
This is the worst injury to be idle over. Whereas I don't want him rushed, not a single day past what he needs is the way to go.

 

[Antropovsky]

Since Marner's injury we are 65 percent on the PK and 12 percent on the PP.

7 GP since Marners injury:
- 2 games vs the leagues #2 PK (Carolina)
- 2 games vs the leagues #3 PK (Flyers)
- 2 games vs the leagues #2 PP (Carolina)
- 1 game vs the leagues #2 PP (Edmonton)
- One of the PP goals was a 6 vs 4, with Edmontons goalie pulled
- One of the pp goals was a 6 vs 4, with Carolina goalies pulled.

Yea seems to make sense that the percentages would dip in these games. Especially considering two were 6vs4 situations lol.

Almost as bad as it was with him !

It might be worse with him actually. For reference I checked the last time we played Carolina with Marner in lineup:

The Leafs played Carolina in December with Marner and the penalty kill% was 50% (Carolina was 2/4 on pp) and powerplay percentage was 0% (leafs were 0/3).

Yikes! And none of the 6 vs 4 like when Leafs played them with Marner.

 

[ToneDog]

7 GP since Marners injury:
- 2 games vs the leagues #2 PK (Carolina)
- 2 games vs the leagues #3 PK (Flyers)
- 2 games vs the leagues #2 PP (Carolina)
- 1 game vs the leagues #2 PP (Edmonton)
- One of the PP goals was a 6 vs 4, with Edmontons goalie pulled
- One of the pp goals was a 6 vs 4, with Carolina goalies pulled.

Yea seems to make sense that the percentages would dip in these games. Especially considering two were 6vs4 situations lol.



It might be worse with him actually. For reference I checked the last time we played Carolina with Marner in lineup:

The Leafs played Carolina in December with Marner and the penalty kill% was 50% (Carolina was 2/4 on pp) and powerplay percentage was 0% (leafs were 0/3).

Yikes! And none of the 6 vs 4 like when Leafs played them with Marner.

No way Aho's PP goal off McCabe's foot goes in if Mitch is playing. Seriously, McMann and Holmberg on one PK looked like AAA players last night.

 

[Antropovsky]

love to hang out in the Marner fan boi thread

The "Marner fan Boi" thread was closed due to an overwhelming amount of posters wanting an unbiased thread. The general rule is there only be one thread open per player and that thread used to be the "Marner appreciation thread". Certain members also demanded that thread be entirely positive and nothing critical because it was an appreciation thread. If 70% of members vote for him to be traded in the off-season, how can there just be one thread for him allowed and it also be an "appreciation" only thread? Makes about 0 sense. Glad mods allowed the unbiased thread.

 

[Antropovsky]

No way Aho's PP goal off McCabe's foot goes in if Mitch is playing. Seriously, McMann and Holmberg on one PK looked like AAA players last night.

Still the Leaf PK and PP performed the same or better last night without Marner than when Leafs played Carolina in December with Marner.

 

[ACC1224]

It worries me too. Seems like they lied about the severity of every one of Matthews injuries.

I don't mind the lying in the sense that it gives the media and their bullshit a lot less to work with but the fans kinda want to know what to expect come playoff time.

Ideally they've giving Marner extra time because they can, the playoff race is not very desperate as the Leafs spot is pretty locked up right now.

Sorely missed, not a Leaf fan alive that doesn't want to see him back asap.
The team just looks a shambles without the engine in the lineup.

 

[IPS]

Still the Leaf PK and PP performed the same or better last night without Marner than when Leafs played Carolina in December with Marner.

You really think the PK is anywhere near the same without Marner?

The shorthanded threat alone causes the PK to look different, and opposing teams treat it as such.

He's an important part of the special teams.

 

[Arzak]

Sorely missed, not a Leaf fan alive that doesn't want to see him back asap.
The team just looks a shambles without the engine in the lineup.

Talks Leafs fans, post-Marner propaganda!

Shambles your new favorite word ? It's just weird. Our PP is bad, not as bad as with him. Our PK is bad, not as bad as with him. Matthews still scoring. You have nothing to add so "shambles" it is for you.

Not a Leaf fan alive, sure buddy. You are a Leaf fan and you talk for all !

 

[GoonieFace]

Talks Leafs fans, post-Marner propaganda!

Shambles your new favorite word ? It's just weird. Our PP is bad, not as bad as with him. Our PK is bad, not as bad as with him. Matthews still scoring. You have nothing to add so "shambles" it is for you.

Not a Leaf fan alive, sure buddy. You are a Leaf fan and you talk for all !

Obviously this team is better with Marner in the lineup. But it also shows that they can survive without him (granted his roster spot and cap hit are used on competent players, preferably a top pairing d-man if there was a trade available). We all know they are re-signing him to a huge contract. Hopefully it works out and this team accomplishes something in the playoffs with this cap allocation.

 

[666]

Still the Leaf PK and PP performed the same or better last night without Marner than when Leafs played Carolina in December with Marner.

This is irrelevant because it's a sample size of two. Also, you've provided no evidence. This is not how you properly analyse hockey talent.

 

[Antropovsky]

You really think the PK is anywhere near the same without Marner?

The shorthanded threat alone causes the PK to look different, and opposing teams treat it as such.

He's an important part of the special teams.

Leafs PK% is bottom 6 in the league. Marner, who apparently gives us a scoring threat, has 1 point on the PK. He has just 9 shots. Meanwhile Travis Konecny is on the leagues 3rd best PK. He has 23 shots in less mins.

If Marner isnt providing us much of a scoring threat, and the PK sucks, why are we praising him for his pk%? He's part of a bad PK.

 

[Antropovsky]

This is irrelevant because it's a sample size of two. Also, you've provided no evidence. This is not how you properly analyse hockey talent.

Again my point:

7 games without Marner:
4/7 games were vs the leagues top 3 PK teams
3/7 were vs teams with a top 3 pp.

2 pp goals against were 6 vs 4, with the opponents goalie pulled late in the game.

It's pretty simple to explain why the Leafs pp and pk look worse in the sample size @DarkKnight quoted.

If a Tennis player X played Roger Federer and Nadal 4/7 games, would player x's stats look worse than the other 62 games he played that included all 30 players?

 

[Racer88]

You really think the PK is anywhere near the same without Marner?

The shorthanded threat alone causes the PK to look different, and opposing teams treat it as such.

He's an important part of the special teams.

The PK was 25th with him in the line up……….so there’s that

 

[Notsince67]

The PK was 25th with him in the line up……….so there’s that

Pretty bad pk considering Marner is in 10th position for a forward... league wide...in Goals above replacement for SHD.

 

[Arzak]

Pretty bad pk considering Marner is in 10th position for a forward... league wide...in Goals above replacement for SHD.

He is 8th on Leafs at preventing goals on PK, Leafs PK with Mitch 25th.

Mitch 10th in short-handed scoring above average replacement? Do you mind sharing a link, so we know which stat you are trying to butcher?

 

[DarkKnight]

Pretty bad pk considering Marner is in 10th position for a forward... league wide...in Goals above replacement for SHD.

 

[Notsince67]

He is 8th on Leafs at preventing goals on PK, Leafs PK with Mitch 25th.

Mitch 10th in short-handed scoring above average replacement? Do you mind sharing a link, so we know which stat you are trying to butcher?

Goals above replacement weighs a lot more.
I can share the link but you need a subscription to evolving hockey so it won't do you much good. Subscription is cheap so go for it. It is in the gar/war stats

 

[Arzak]

Goals above replacement weighs a lot more.
I can share the link but you need a subscription to evolving hockey so it won't do you much good. Subscription is cheap so go for it. It is in the gar/war stats

No one is questioning his ability to score on PK.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No one is questioning his ability to score on PK.

But where does he rank at preventing goals while on the PP?

 

[Racer88]

Pretty bad pk considering Marner is in 10th position for a forward... league wide...in Goals above replacement for SHD.

I’m not saying Marner makes the PK worse or better just that his effect on it is not what some here think it is

 

[Antropovsky]

I’m not saying Marner makes the PK worse or better just that his effect on it is not what some here think it is

When the PK is doing well, he's the reason it is. When the PK isn't doing well, he isn't the reason it isn't. Interesting how it works.

 

[Notsince67]

No one is questioning his ability to score on PK.

No it isn't that. There are defensive components to GAR. The stats I cited were really pk goals prevented above expectations of replacement level

I’m not saying Marner makes the PK worse or better just that his effect on it is not what some here think it is

It's actually better.

 

[Racer88]

No it isn't that. There are defensive components to GAR. The stats I cited were really pk goals prevented above expectations of replacement level


It's actually better.

It was 25th in the league with him on it so not far to fall with him missing from it

When the PK is doing well, he's the reason it is. When the PK isn't doing well, he isn't the reason it isn't. Interesting how it works.

Seems to look that way