Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Interesting idea. Marner seems to fall apart after the first 4 games of the playoffs, maybe he's being asked to do too much and he just burns out? Could be I guess, playoff hockey is very physically demanding and Marner's a small guy by NHL standards.

Worth trying IMO, what do have to lose. 2 minutes more or less of Marner in any one game doesn't seem like it would make a massive difference, but him turning into a cupcake after 4 games is a big problem as we need him playing like the 11 million dollar man for more than just 4 games in order to have any hope whatsoever of going deep in the playoffs. I've said it before - our best chance of being a better team in the playoffs, is for Marner to "be all he can be" in the playoffs. He's such an enormous talent and the difference between him being at his best and him being "that other" is such a huge swing.

I think there's something to this - with Marner being gassed as the series continues.

I looked up Nathan MacKinnon's ice time when he won a cup his average ice time over 20 games was 21:24 minutes.

Here is some stats for Marner's playoff icetime
2019-2020 24:39 over 5 games (Columbus series)
2020-2021 24:43 over 7 games (Habs series I think)
2021-2022 22:55 over 7 games (I thought we were better than tampa this year)
2022-2023 24:07 over 11 games (started strong, very poor ending)

He's getting too much ice I think, it's probably too much for 99% of players

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think there's something to this - with Marner being gassed as the series continues.

I looked up Nathan MacKinnon's ice time when he won a cup his average ice time over 20 games was 21:24 minutes.

Here is some stats for Marner's playoff icetime
2019-2020 24:39 over 5 games (Columbus series)
2020-2021 24:43 over 7 games (Habs series I think)
2021-2022 22:55 over 7 games (I thought we were better than tampa this year)
2022-2023 24:07 over 11 games (started strong, very poor ending)

He's getting too much ice I think, it's probably too much for 99% of players

It seems like it just makes so much sense to cut his ice time like you suggested so the question becomes - what are the odds of Keefe doing this?

You'd figure a team with all the resources we have there would be people all over this ...

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Stick handling has been smooth as butter. Little pull to the backhand when the defender gets close then back to forehand and he's in a new lane

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

It seems like it just makes so much sense to cut his ice time like you suggested so the question becomes - what are the odds of Keefe doing this?

You'd figure a team with all the resources we have there would be people all over this ...

It's hard to believe why Keefe would burn out his best players like this.

He might say, well I don't trust line 3 and 4, and to that I'd say, then put better players on those lines. Putting Tavares on Line 3 is part of the solution I think, we need line 3 to put up minutes so that line 1 and 2 can be at their best for a long period of time. MacKinnon has elements of his game that are even better than Matthews and they managed a cup with him at just 21:24 minutes over 20 games.

Another theory with a cynical view could be....The players have too much power and influence over the team. The core four's preferences have taken priority over the greater good and they are demanding they get the ice time, with preferred linemates, and won't accept any other duties that would affect their point production. I really hope this isn't what is happening.

Or maybe Keefe is thinking super simply where he thinks a gassed Marner is still better than whoever else we have. I think we have overwhelming proof that we can pull off a miracle doing this from time to time (that one Tampa comeback was insane which wouldn't have happened without the core magic) but it is absolutely not a long term cup strategy. We need to balance the lines

The guys are playing HARD minutes and looked spent against Florida

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ok I just looked it up. In 2023, there were only 9 forwards who averaged more than 22 minutes ice time in the playoffs. Only one averaged more than 24 minutes, you can guess who that was. Now obviously I can't say with 100% certainty that this is what's holding Marner back but ... something IS holding Marner back and ice time certainly seems like a distinct possibility.

The very idea that maybe all that's holding Marner back is a coach who can get the most out of him by limiting his ice time makes be a little bit crazy. Unlocking Marner's potential would make a massive difference to this team and unless Marner's at his best in the playoffs (and not just the first 4 games), we're going nowhere. JMHO.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's hard to believe why Keefe would burn out his best players like this.

He might say, well I don't trust line 3 and 4, and to that I'd say, then put better players on those lines. Putting Tavares on Line 3 is part of the solution I think, we need line 3 to put up minutes so that line 1 and 2 can be at their best for a long period of time. MacKinnon has elements of his game that are even better than Matthews and they managed a cup with him at just 21:24 minutes over 20 games.

Another theory with a cynical view could be....The players have too much power and influence over the team. The core four's preferences have taken priority over the greater good and they are demanding they get the ice time, with preferred linemates, and won't accept any other duties that would affect their point production. I really hope this isn't what is happening.

Or maybe Keefe is thinking super simply where he thinks a gassed Marner is still better than whoever else we have. I think we have overwhelming proof that we can pull off a miracle doing this from time to time (that one Tampa comeback was insane which wouldn't have happened without the core magic) but it is absolutely not a long term cup strategy. We need to balance the lines

The guys are playing HARD minutes and looked spent against Florida

Yeah seeing how we played without Rielly suggests that our depth players can do more, they just need to be given the opportunity and told that we're counting on them, that we need everyone's contribution to win. And yes, they looked just so bad against Florida and considering what a long grind it is to win the cup, pacing our stars seems so obvious that an average 8 year old would understand it so why can't Keefe figure it out?

I wish I knew what Keefe was thinking. I want this team to win so badly and the thought that all we need to do is to have Marner to play 21 minutes a night instead of 24 is enough to drive me a little bit crazy.

 

[Antropovsky]

Just to add a bit off context to 10.9 million Marners spectacular 5 points over the last two games because a few people are over selling it.

Only one point was off an actual intended pass by Marner inside the opponents blueline, and it was on a 5 vs 3. The other 4 points were just luck points or points for playing lots of minutes.

Marner past two games, 0 g, 5 a

#1) 4 vs 4 primary assist: incredibly wide and inaccurate backhand shot inadvertently hits Matthews and goes in.
#2) Primary assist: 5-3 pp assist.
#3) PP secondary assist: Marners pass attempt misses target, Liljegren picks up loose puck and passes back and forth with Matthews until Matthews scores.
#4)PK Primary assist: clearing attempt inside leaf blueline puck deflects off his skate and Domi scores after picking loose puck that Vegas players miscomminicate on.
#5) Secondary assist: makes breakout pass to Matthews from Leafs goal line and goes for line change. Matthews and Holmberg take puck from inside own blueline and create goal.

As you can see, Marner has certainly cranked up his play.

 

[Notsince67]

Even the biggest Marner supporters cannot say he has played like he has the past 10 games or so. He looks like he has rabies.

No one has ever denied the talent, but the intensity has been cranked up. That’s all people want to see, another Dougie G. It’s more frustration than anything for a lot of people. He brings this every night in the playoffs, nobody can say a bad word about him

Interesting note. Dougie didn't play for the Leafs until he was 28.

 

[francis246]

Is Matthews benefiting from Marner ? Sure, he might only score 65-68 goals without him.

Mitch on the other hand, having his own line without an additional $11M player would show you how much he is really worth.

The affect of Mitch Marner on Matthews's ability to score is abysmal, while Mitchs primary source of points is Matthews's scoring (not Marners brilliant playmaking as you'd make it sound).

Mitch Marner cracked 90 points before Matthews and out produced Matthews point wise for the first 3/4 years of their careers. And they didn’t play together, so what are you talking about?

Also are we forgetting Matthews threw a fit about playing with Marner. He saw what Marner did for Tavares wanted that for himself.

 

[Gabriel426]

Dmen never make the money of a superstar forward and even then, they would have all been close.

We would have probably even seen a guy like Nurse making 10 million+ (he signed for 9.25).

Before covid hit, revenues were soaring, the NHL was talking massive increases of the cap and it's not out of the question we would talking about it going over 100 million next year instead of 87.

It screwed us real hard. Instead of being able to add a couple of more impact players during the cores prime years, we have had to scramble to make things work. To try and spin it as to have been to our benefit is ludicrous.

If the cap increases, other teams can also pay supporting players more money too.
Dubas thought the cap will go up and most importantly thought players getting 10mil plus contracts will the norm in a year or two but that didn’t happen till pretty much last season.
My point is that if there is no COVID, Hyman will probably sign higher than 5.5mil/yr, probably closer to Hagel, which would still be too much for the Leafs.
I a way, Dubas knew he was in tough and was hoping others will be in tough too. But I don’t blame Dubas as much, since we all know the numbers for AM, since it will be between McD and Eichel, JT was an UFA, MM might be overpaid but only by a mil. The direction of the team was go for it and made sense to sign JT.

Interesting note. Dougie didn't play for the Leafs until he was 28.

He also won a Cup before he came to the Leafs

 

[Doublerum1975]

Just to add a bit off context to 10.9 million Marners spectacular 5 points over the last two games because a few people are over selling it.

Only one point was off an actual intended pass by Marner inside the opponents blueline, and it was on a 5 vs 3. The other 4 points were just luck points or points for playing lots of minutes.

Marner past two games, 0 g, 5 a

#1) 4 vs 4 primary assist: incredibly wide and inaccurate backhand shot inadvertently hits Matthews and goes in.
#2) Primary assist: 5-3 pp assist.
#3) PP secondary assist: Marners pass attempt misses target, Liljegren picks up loose puck and passes back and forth with Matthews until Matthews scores.
#4)PK Primary assist: clearing attempt inside leaf blueline puck deflects off his skate and Domi scores after picking loose puck that Vegas players miscomminicate on.
#5) Secondary assist: makes breakout pass to Matthews from Leafs goal line and goes for line change. Matthews and Holmberg take puck from inside own blueline and create goal.

As you can see, Marner has certainly cranked up his play.

You need to stop you are embarrassing yourself lol

 

[Antropovsky]

Mitch Marner cracked 90 points before Matthews and out produced Matthews point wise for the first 3/4 years of their careers. And they didn’t play together, so what are you talking about?

Also are we forgetting Matthews threw a fit about playing with Marner. He saw what Marner did for Tavares wanted that for himself.

Lol... Yup Marner produced 94 points on a line centered by 27 year old, two time hart trophy finalist John Tavares and Hyman.

Here's the breakdown, tell me if you spot the difference:

Marner 2019:
0.7 even strength points per game
94 point seasons
Linemates: Hyman (>800 mins) and Tavares (>1000 mins)

Matthews 2019:
0.69 even strength points per game
pacing 88 points
Linemates: Johnsson (600 mins) Marleau (>400mins) Kapanen (>400mins) Nylander (260 mins)


Here's the assist tracker for Matthews even at even strength goal in 2019. 88 points with his linemates is incredible (notice not one assist by Marner or Tavares).

Player Position Total Assists First Assists Second Assists
Andreas Johnsson L 8 7 1
Jake Gardiner D 2 0 2
Jake Muzzin D 1 0 1
Kasperi Kapanen R 8 4 4
Morgan Rielly D 4 1 3
Nikita Zaitsev D 3 1 2
Patrick Marleau C 4 4 0
Ron Hainsey D 1 1 0
Travis Dermott D 1 1 0
Tyler Ennis L 1 0 1
William Nylander R 2 1 1

Tell me you see the significant difference here.

Marner corsi with Tavares: 54%
Marner corsi without Tavares: 39%
Tavares corsi without Marner: 52%

Remember... Marner apparently was propping up Tavares lol.

 

[Zybalto]

Marner during this win streak:

13 assists in 5 games

overall 5v5
xGF%: 67.56%
Goal Differential: 88.15%

Notable D rankings among all 274 forwards with 50+ minutes:

Fewest shots allowed/60:
Marner: 13.06 (1st out of 274)

Fewest High Danger Chances allowed/60:
Marner: 3.71 (1st out of 274)

PP: Leads the NHL for goals scored/60 while on the ice.

Beast.

 

[Notsince67]

If the cap increases, other teams can also pay supporting players more money too.
Dubas thought the cap will go up and most importantly thought players getting 10mil plus contracts will the norm in a year or two but that didn’t happen till pretty much last season.
My point is that if there is no COVID, Hyman will probably sign higher than 5.5mil/yr, probably closer to Hagel, which would still be too much for the Leafs.
I a way, Dubas knew he was in tough and was hoping others will be in tough too. But I don’t blame Dubas as much, since we all know the numbers for AM, since it will be between McD and Eichel, JT was an UFA, MM might be overpaid but only by a mil. The direction of the team was go for it and made sense to sign JT.


He also won a Cup before he came to the Leafs

Marner hasnt hit 28 yet

 

[Notsince67]

Lol... Yup Marner produced 94 points on a line centered by 27 year old, two time hart trophy finalist John Tavares and Hyman.

Here's the breakdown, tell me if you spot the difference:

Marner 2019:
0.7 even strength points per game
94 point seasons
Linemates: Hyman (>800 mins) and Tavares (>1000 mins)

Matthews 2019:
0.69 even strength points per game
pacing 88 points
Linemates: Johnsson (600 mins) Marleau (>400mins) Kapanen (>400mins) Nylander (260 mins)


Here's the assist tracker for Matthews even at even strength goal in 2019. 88 points with his linemates is incredible (notice not one assist by Marner or Tavares).

Player Position Total Assists First Assists Second Assists
Andreas Johnsson L 8 7 1
Jake Gardiner D 2 0 2
Jake Muzzin D 1 0 1
Kasperi Kapanen R 8 4 4
Morgan Rielly D 4 1 3
Nikita Zaitsev D 3 1 2
Patrick Marleau C 4 4 0
Ron Hainsey D 1 1 0
Travis Dermott D 1 1 0
Tyler Ennis L 1 0 1
William Nylander R 2 1 1

Tell me you see the significant difference here.

Marner corsi with Tavares: 54%
Marner corsi without Tavares: 39%
Tavares corsi without Marner: 52%

Remember... Marner apparently was propping up Tavares lol.

LMFAO

 

[Doublerum1975]

So far I learned in this thread Mitch has really only got maybe 15.5 points in his whole career because he’s carried by his line mates lol

 

[Notsince67]

So far I learned in this thread Mitch has really only got maybe 15.5 points in his whole career because he’s carried by his line mates lol

To prove it, you even have someone adding up all the transitional seconds between shifts to do a with or without corsi

 

[Arzak]

I think there's something to this - with Marner being gassed as the series continues.

I looked up Nathan MacKinnon's ice time when he won a cup his average ice time over 20 games was 21:24 minutes.

Here is some stats for Marner's playoff icetime
2019-2020 24:39 over 5 games (Columbus series)
2020-2021 24:43 over 7 games (Habs series I think)
2021-2022 22:55 over 7 games (I thought we were better than tampa this year)
2022-2023 24:07 over 11 games (started strong, very poor ending)

He's getting too much ice I think, it's probably too much for 99% of players

I'd like your posts, had my privileges been not revoked.

You can find games where he plays 30 mins, yet people are complaining about lack of depth. You have Mitch playing 30 min a game, JT slowing game for another 20 min .


Don't blame filler playing 4 and 5 min on your 3rd and 4th lane. Blame Mitch, his cap is forcing coaches to play him 25-30min a game despite him being useless at times.

 

[DarkKnight]

So far I learned in this thread Mitch has really only got maybe 15.5 points in his whole career because he’s carried by his line mates lol

It’s pretty amusing watching people paint themselves into a corner on a player and then offer absurdity after absurdity to rationalize their stance, all the while losing any semblance of credibility.

Pass the popcorn.

 

[Mr_Fun]

It’s pretty amusing watching people paint themselves into a corner on a player and then offer absurdity after absurdity to rationalize their stance, all the while losing any semblance of credibility.

Pass the popcorn.

You mean they're serious? I actually thought this was some kind of performance art.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You mean they're serious? I actually thought this was some kind of performance art.

If you can't tell if it's art or not, that's the best kind.

 

[Antropovsky]

You mean they're serious? I actually thought this was some kind of performance art.

-So the board voted 70% in favor of trading him in the offseason. With 100 of votes.
- Mitch Marner constantly complains about social media attacking him. So it's widespread and not just this board.
- Sports writers are writing critical posts about him
- podcasts are talking about the fan negativity towards him

.....where there's smoke, there's fire.

Who do you want to believe... The five Marner first fans, who literally compare him to Gretzky or the majority?

 

[Notsince67]

-So the board voted 70% in favor of trading him in the offseason. With 100 of votes.
- Mitch Marner constantly complains about social media attacking him. So it's widespread and not just this board.
- Sports writers are writing critical posts about him
- podcasts are talking about the fan negativity towards him

.....where there's smoke, there's fire.

Who do you want to believe... The five Marner first fans, who literally compare him to Gretzky or the majority?

Believe someone producing wowi corsi stats by summing transitional seconds from every shift of course. We are all dumb here

 

[DarkKnight]

You mean they're serious? I actually thought this was some kind of performance art.

It really has nothing to do with hockey at this point.

 

[Mr_Fun]

If you can't tell if it's art or not, that's the best kind.

Andy Kuaffman would like this post.