Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[ULF_55]

Should have seen him carry London to the Mem Cup, not many have had a junior season like that one. Hopefully we see the same here one day.

I wasn't sure it was marner or Tkachuk carrying the team.
But one player doesn't win it alone.

Last 5 NHL Playoffs:

Top 3 always ...

 

[Gabriel426]

Should have seen him carry London to the Mem Cup, not many have had a junior season like that one. Hopefully we see the same here one day.

When he was against boys.

I know you want to defend him but it is a fact that he along with others like AM, JT and even Willie didn’t carry the Leafs like how Mack and Makar did with Avs or Toews and Kane with Hawks or even McD and Drai with the Oilers. At one point McD and Drai had about the same points in one playoffs than AM and MM in their playoffs careers.

Hopefully MM and the others will do it this playoffs but we have also been saying it over the past 5 yrs or so.

 

[Aashir]

Haven’t we been over these stats like a bajillion times now? Hopefully Magic Mitch shows up this playoffs.

That’s exactly what I’m saying

We know the stats, we’ve seen them a lot

I like some of his adjustments to the game, specifically the physicality he’s been showing this year. It seems nylander from time to time has also followed suit. If this can rub off on Matthews we will be scary to play against

he probably finishes with ~95-105 points, not a bad season at all. At this point that is literally what he is so it’s fine, I want a Marner who scores, defends, and doesn’t back down.

 

[Zybalto]

How many of these don't rely on quality of linemates? Here's a good article showing Marners stats relative to the other core 4 from last year's playoffs. Let me know your thoughts @Zybalto

Weiterleitungshinweis

View attachment 821944

View attachment 821945

A flawed approach, cherry picking shot distance data in a super small sample size is a pretty embarrassing article. Stop posting it. Even worse, Marner's main job is to setup his linemates while shutting down the other side and the author admits that Marner's linemates (just check Matthews) saw no real decrease in quality looks in the playoffs. Who pays these guys to write this drivel?

At least those out there talking early in the series vs. late have a leg to stand on (although the easy counter is that every game counts among other things).


Hey Einstein,

Holtby, Rask, Rask, Korpisalo (in one of the greatest playoff goalie runs ever), Price, Vasy, Vasy, Bobrovsky

..........vs..........

Andersen, Andersen, Andersen, Andersen, Campbell, Campbell, Samsonov, Samsonov.

Thats 6 Vezinas, a ton of nominations and multiple possible HoF goalies along with the guy who set the NHL save record that year vs. one of the worst playoff goalies of our generation and 2 guys who have been ejected from the league for sucking so bad.

Your time would be better spent acknowledging the obvious. Goaltending differential is the massive factor at play here.

 

[Antropovsky]

Great article from 5 years ago talking about "betweeneness". Just an example of the Matthews affect on his linemates. Remove Matthews and Marners stats, that aren't that impressive right now to begin with, take a drastic drop. Thornton is Matthews, Marner Cheechoo (example attached below). The author in this article predicted that because of "betweenness centrality" prospect at the time,Farabee, would be the better NHL player over Wahlstrom (because Whalstroms points were more influenced by elite linemate Hughes, while Farabees we're less associated with Hughes). Looking on it in hindsight now, we know his prediction was correct.

Betweenness centrality measures how often a node lies on the shortest path between a pair of nodes. So a node — which, in this situation, is a hockey player — will have a high betweenness centrality score if it acts as a “bridge” in a network between two other nodes, such that information must flow through it so the other two nodes can pass information to each other. Betweenness centrality is often used to measure the “influence” of a node, such that, if a node with a relatively high betweenness score is removed, it will have the greatest relative impact on its respective network’s information flow.

So, that’s a bit confusing. What does this mean for hockey? Well, let’s first try to visualize hockey scoring as a network, such that each player is a node, and the connections — or “edges” — represent primary assists to and from each players’ goals. The above visualization may help.

In terms of hockey, a player will have a high betweenness centrality score if:

• The player scores and assists on a lot of goals
• The player scores and assists on many distinct players’ goals
• A player’s teammates rely on the player for their scoring, such that the teammates’ goals and assists tend to only occur with that player directly involved
• The player fulfills some combination of the above requirements more than that player’s teammates do

Here’s an example — Joe Thornton in 2006 tended to assist on many players’ goals and score from many players’ assists, whereas Jonathan Cheechoo — while scoring 56 goals that season — tended to score from Thornton’s assists. In a way, Cheechoo relied upon Thornton for his scoring, but Thornton did not rely on Cheechoo. While I haven’t tested this hypothesis, Thornton would likely have the higher betweenness centrality score, and, from that, we could assume that Thornton was more influential to his team’s scoring than Cheechoo was.

 

[Antropovsky]

A flawed approach, cherry picking shot distance data in a super small sample size is a pretty embarrassing article. Stop posting it. Even worse, Marner's main job is to setup his linemates while shutting down the other side and the author admits that Marner's linemates (just check Matthews) saw no real decrease in quality looks in the playoffs. Who pays these guys to write this drivel?

At least those out there talking early in the series vs. late have a leg to stand on (although the easy counter is that every game counts among other things).


Hey Einstein,

Holtby, Rask, Rask, Korpisalo (in one of the greatest playoff goalie runs ever), Price, Vasy, Vasy, Bobrovsky

..........vs..........

Andersen, Andersen, Andersen, Andersen, Campbell, Campbell, Samsonov, Samsonov.

Thats 6 Vezinas, a ton of nominations and multiple possible HoF goalies along with the guy who set the NHL save record that year vs. one of the worst playoff goalies of our generation and 2 guys who have been ejected from the league for sucking so bad.

Your time would be better spent acknowledging the obvious. Goaltending differential is the massive factor at play here.

Lol.... Your saying it's not a big deal that Marner was 10' further from the net in the playoffs vs in the season? Yet his teammates were <2' and <4'?

Why are these "cherry picked?" I've noticed that you and @Dekes For Days like to use this statement as a "get out of jail free" card, as if using it means you don't have to explain why it doesn't matter. Obviously because you can't explain it.

You also don't think it matters that Marners slot shot was 14% worse than it was in the season and last on the leafs team by over 10%

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent

Seeya later credibility @Zybalto

 

[Zybalto]

Lol.... Your saying it's not a big deal that Marner was 10' further from the net in the playoffs vs in the season? Yet his teammates were <2' and <4'?

Why are these "cherry picked?" I've noticed that you and @Dekes For Days like to use this statement as a "get out of jail free" card, as if using it means you don't have to explain why it doesn't matter. Obviously because you can't explain it.

You also don't think it matters that Marners slot shot was 14% worse than it was in the season and last on the leafs team by over 10%

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent

Seeya later credibility @Zybalto

Yup, everything came down to Marner shooting 13% less from the slot. You figured this whole thing out.

Maybe you need to take a step back and stop embarrassing yourself.

 

[Antropovsky]

Yup, everything came down to Marner shooting 13% less from the slot. You figured this whole thing out.

Maybe you need to take a step back and stop embarrassing yourself.

Well the slot is only the most dangerous area of the ice, so yes 13% less shots from the slot is big.

10 feet further from the net, is also incredible too.

Lol you're the one embarrassing yourself...

Your also ignoring that relative to his teammates, Marners stats were the ones that primary got worse. Whereas the others didn't or it wasn't nearly as bad compared to their season production.

 

[ULF_55]

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So what changed eh?
Different way to insert objects/images now?
Need to go back to school ... again.

Playoffs ... as said, playing with Matthews has advantages.
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[Gabriel426]

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So what changed eh?
Different way to insert objects/images now?
Need to go back to school ... again.
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[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]S/C[/TD]
[TD]Pos[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]P[/TD]
[TD]+/-[/TD]
[TD]PIM[/TD]
[TD]P/GP[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
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37​

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Our depth really sucks when ROR only played one playoffs and ranked 7 in playoff points over the past few seasons.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Biggest Groundhog Day thread going on Leafs hfboards.

 

[thewave]

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So what changed eh?
Different way to insert objects/images now?
Need to go back to school ... again.

Playoffs ... as said, playing with Matthews has advantages.
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[TD]Pos[/TD]
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[TD]PIM[/TD]
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[/TR]
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[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
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[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]
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[TD]William Nylander[/TD]
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37​

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[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]
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5​

[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.43​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan O'Reilly[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]

-3​

[/TD]

[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.82​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Muzzin[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]

[TD]

22​

[/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

0​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.36​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TJ Brodie[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

22​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.28​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jason Spezza[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]

[TD]

17​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.35​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
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[TD][/TD]

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Wish there were a way to isolate game 5 6 7 totals only. Imagine Mitch falls off pretty far.

 

[GoonieFace]

Wish there were a way to isolate game 5 6 7 totals only. Imagine Mitch falls off pretty far.

He also didn’t score a goal in back to back playoff series. And we all know last year his point totals in the first round were inflated in blowout games.

That aside, hopefully he can pick up the intensity this playoffs. He has looked a little more physical lately. We don’t need him to steamroll people, but just get in there and separate player from puck, instead of the one armed pokecheck.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Marner is one of the best 2 way players in the league.
He’s had some good playoff years and some not so good.
Last year he disappointed me .. I thought he was hurt but he wasn’t.
I think that if some other players step up and take off the pressure he might get it going.
Matthews is fine in the playoffs.
Nylander’s numbers look good but the guy really doesn’t compete in the tough areas.
Rielly is a money player and really is a star in the playoffs.

He was hurt just not physically.

 

[Divine]

Mitch Marner is not a good linemate for Matthews. It works in the regular season because there's so many games and you don't focus on one team.

Every playoffs, teams double team Matthews because they know Marner can't shoot. We need to put Matthews with another shooting threat so teams can't just double him. With Marner and Knies, they can basically triple team Matthews this playoffs.

Nylander is a much better linemate because he can shoot and pass. This is why I'm in favour of walking away from Marner and going for someone who can shoot better, like Rantanen if he can make UFA as his contract ends at the same time as Marner. MacK gets a lot of credit as a playoff performer but Rantanen has been outscoring him for the last few years.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why are these "cherry picked?" I've noticed that you and @Dekes For Days like to use this statement as a "get out of jail free" card, as if using it means you don't have to explain why it doesn't matter. Obviously because you can't explain it.

To be clear, it's explained to you every single time, and then you still bring the same articles up the next time.
The last dozen times you brought up the same article, the context behind that percentage change in shot distance was explained to you.
What it actually represents is a shot from outside the zone skewing the average, and 2 extra long range shots relative to his average.
Why did he have 2 extra long range shots than his average? Because they ran a set, widely discussed play that Vasilevsky was weak to.
Were these 2 extra long range shots the death of us? Quite the opposite. He literally scored 3 of his 7 long range shots.

So what this really boils down to is you trying to broadly disparage a player for a percentage change in a microstat in one small playoff sample that represents a dump in hitting the goalie, and scoring extra goals on a set team play.

 

[thewave]

Mitch Marner is not a good linemate for Matthews. It works in the regular season because there's so many games and you don't focus on one team.

Every playoffs, teams double team Matthews because they know Marner can't shoot. We need to put Matthews with another shooting threat so teams can't just double him. With Marner and Knies, they can basically triple team Matthews this playoffs.

Nylander is a much better linemate because he can shoot and pass. This is why I'm in favour of walking away from Marner and going for someone who can shoot better, like Rantanen if he can make UFA as his contract ends at the same time as Marner. MacK gets a lot of credit as a playoff performer but Rantanen has been outscoring him for the last few years.

Welcome to the club of the few that identified this years ago and have been consistently told it's in our heads by members of the church of Marner.

It's really obvious this happens and shows up as apparent in stats when you see WN and AM suddenly have similar goal production. It's obviously not Nylander getting better. It's teams dont care to cover Marner, and when they do in games 5 6 7 with intensity he falls apart. Turnovers, pucks over the boards you name it.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I think Marner has looked pretty good since December, but when you look at the point total, it feels like they haven't caught up to his play. I think part of it is, he's scored some pretty big/timely goals in the last 6 weeks, which is very important but doesn't pad the points like multiple 3-point games would.

 

[Gabriel426]

It is not even funny anymore reading MM threads.
You always have one side literally defending him like he is the best player ever played in the NHL and whatever lack of team success is due to the team and not him. To the point where you will say, if only the others finish the chances MM created, MM would have more points.....or it is not MM fault that our goalie didn't make more saves.....or if only the defense can play defense.... all the while MM's playoffs stats are just good but not great.
Then you have the other side just keep saying he is over-rated, he choked.....And will breakdown the smallest thing on ice to prove a point, like look at how MM skated against bigger players or how he stops skating into board battles...or he is afraid to drive toward the net.....

I think by now, we all know who MM is. The question will always be can MM be at his best when the Leafs needs him the most in elimination games in playoffs.

 

[Arzak]

Welcome to the club of the few that identified this years ago and have been consistently told it's in our heads by members of the church of Marner.

It's really obvious this happens and shows up as apparent in stats when you see WN and AM suddenly have similar goal production. It's obviously not Nylander getting better. It's teams dont care to cover Marner, and when they do in games 5 6 7 with intensity he falls apart. Turnovers, pucks over the boards you name it.

If you are playing vs Leafs and your options are to let Matthews shoot or let Marner shoot from 10ft further away from the goal...

 

[Arzak]

He managed to take over in a grand total of zero playoff series. At the same time, he threw the puck over the glass 5 times.

One is more likely than the other at this point.

 

[Stephen]

Kinda liked seeing him take a couple of shifts back there on D vs Anaheim. The way he was handling the puck, pivoting around was a bit of a novelty. Could see him doing Quinn Hughes type stuff with the extra room to be creative and he already transports the puck a la Kaberle on the PP. Maybe they can Fedorov him into an occasional RHD.

 

[Antropovsky]

To be clear, it's explained to you every single time, and then you still bring the same articles up the next time.
The last dozen times you brought up the same article, the context behind that percentage change in shot distance was explained to you.
What it actually represents is a shot from outside the zone skewing the average, and 2 extra long range shots relative to his average.
Why did he have 2 extra long range shots than his average? Because they ran a set, widely discussed play that Vasilevsky was weak to.
Were these 2 extra long range shots the death of us? Quite the opposite. He literally scored 3 of his 7 long range shots.

So what this really boils down to is you trying to broadly disparage a player for a percentage change in a microstat in one small playoff sample that represents a dump in hitting the goalie, and scoring extra goals on a set team play.

Me? Do you mean Justin Bourne the author who wrote the article for The Athletic? Why do you keep attacking me and not all the authors of all these articles? It's their data. And there are lots of authors posting about it.

.. Here is ANOTHER article discussing Marners most recent playoffs from author Jonas Siegal for The Athletic also article explaining how Marners shots are not dangerous and how it may negatively affect Matthews post season production:

Marner shot it a bit more in the playoffs, but not with the same intention as that 2022 run and not from zones that were likely to yield rewards, as you can see from his shot chart.

Marner has scored only 10 times in 50 playoff games and only once on the power play.

If he can tip the scales slightly toward shooting from what’s probably an 80-20 pass-shoot equation at the moment, Marner will become more difficult to defend. More unpredictable, certainly, for defending opponents who have to wonder if he might just rip it.

As the numbers from that scorching run two seasons ago suggest, that could make for an even more dangerous version of Matthews; he scored 36 times in 41 games during the run.

So is the problem sports writers are against Marner? Being meanies? Or is it your perception of Marner just way off?

 

[Blanche Blanche]

Mitch Marner is not a good linemate for Matthews. It works in the regular season because there's so many games and you don't focus on one team.

Every playoffs, teams double team Matthews because they know Marner can't shoot. We need to put Matthews with another shooting threat so teams can't just double him. With Marner and Knies, they can basically triple team Matthews this playoffs.

Nylander is a much better linemate because he can shoot and pass. This is why I'm in favour of walking away from Marner and going for someone who can shoot better, like Rantanen if he can make UFA as his contract ends at the same time as Marner. MacK gets a lot of credit as a playoff performer but Rantanen has been outscoring him for the last few years.

This exactly…
We’ve tried the Marner Matthews thing for almost a decade now.

Plus he loses board battles more in playoffs when physicality is amped up and allowed.

 

[LeafEgo]

It is not even funny anymore reading MM threads.
You always have one side literally defending him like he is the best player ever played in the NHL and whatever lack of team success is due to the team and not him. To the point where you will say, if only the others finish the chances MM created, MM would have more points.....or it is not MM fault that our goalie didn't make more saves.....or if only the defense can play defense.... all the while MM's playoffs stats are just good but not great.
Then you have the other side just keep saying he is over-rated, he choked.....And will breakdown the smallest thing on ice to prove a point, like look at how MM skated against bigger players or how he stops skating into board battles...or he is afraid to drive toward the net.....

I think by now, we all know who MM is. The question will always be can MM be at his best when the Leafs needs him the most in elimination games in playoffs.

It's true, Marner and the Leafs moving forward is actually a very nuanced discussion, no extremes, and probably the most important and most interesting strategic topic in front of us. Both sides have a solid foundation to debate from. Unfortunately it's impossible here to get valuable dialogue on the matter.