Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[arso40]

Without a doubt Dubas made a massive mistake in giving Marner and Matthews such huge contracts out of entry level, and I’m not sure how to rectify that now. but the question I have for those who want Marner traded is how do you think Matthews would react to losing the guy that’s been serving him goals on a platter for so long. He’d be pissed and how ready would everyone be to have Matthews go from 60-plus goals a season to much fewer?

Or gone when his contracts up but still doesn’t mean we let him take us to the cleaners again hopefully there’s a good number that can be reached

 

[ZEBROA]

Without a doubt Dubas made a massive mistake in giving Marner and Matthews such huge contracts out of entry level, and I’m not sure how to rectify that now. but the question I have for those who want Marner traded is how do you think Matthews would react to losing the guy that’s been serving him goals on a platter for so long. He’d be pissed and how ready would everyone be to have Matthews go from 60-plus goals a season to much fewer?

Who cares how Matthews should react. It is his job to be at the highest level he can , with or without Marner. I would understand the question if they were the Sedin twins, The money from Marner spent wisely (that would not happen i know, but anyway) could wery well give us better depth and a good enough passer to not hamper Matthews goalscoring to much. Matthews is allready good enough to take care of the D on his own. I belive Marner would rocket on another team with less pressure.

 

[LeafSteel]

Without a doubt Dubas made a massive mistake in giving Marner and Matthews such huge contracts out of entry level, and I’m not sure how to rectify that now. but the question I have for those who want Marner traded is how do you think Matthews would react to losing the guy that’s been serving him goals on a platter for so long. He’d be pissed and how ready would everyone be to have Matthews go from 60-plus goals a season to much fewer?

I don’t understand why we should care how Matthews reacts to personnel moves.

He got a huge contract extension and did what was best for him. He treated the Leafs and his contract like a business, which it is.

Now the leafs have to treat everyone like a business, including doing whatever they think is best for the team to win.

Matthews can be amigos on his own dime and time. He doesn’t call the shots, this isn’t the NBA, and he’s not Lebron.

I think we need to move on from Marner at this point. The situation isn’t tenable and time and again this group has shown it’s not good enough.

Something has to give. Extending Marner is just committing to more of the same not good enough results.

Let him do his lame brained junior hockey crap somewhere else for however much papa Paul demands he get. We need a deeper team and players that have another gear in the playoffs, unlike Mitch, who disappears.

 

[rumman]

Without a doubt Dubas made a massive mistake in giving Marner and Matthews such huge contracts out of entry level, and I’m not sure how to rectify that now. but the question I have for those who want Marner traded is how do you think Matthews would react to losing the guy that’s been serving him goals on a platter for so long. He’d be pissed and how ready would everyone be to have Matthews go from 60-plus goals a season to much fewer?

So your upset that Dubas overpaid 34 and 16, but worry about what 34 will think of a hockey decision that means 16 doesn’t end up playing for the Leafs? Let the GM do his job and if players are butt hurt so be it, 34 doesn’t need 16 to be elite, he just needs to put in the work……..

 

[Dekes For Days]

I never stated we had to spend "big money", but a redistribution of wealth from our exceedingly top heavy approach to areas of concern is what the leafs should focus on. If Marner is not re-signed here, and we have an extra 12 million to spread out to help in those three (goaltending, depth scoring, defense) areas, the net benefit would outweigh the loss.

Most cup winners have three things in common, depth scoring, solid goaltending, and great defensive play. I think sacrificing 1 or 2 of our top contracts in the top 6 could help with those areas. I'm not sure how you address them otherwise. We have no cheap talent coming up through the system that can help (Woll aside), we have no leverage/assets to help us trade for it, the only way forward now is to try and improve via the UFA market.

If we get rid of Marner and spend 12 million on goaltending, defense, and depth scoring, we would almost certainly experience a net loss in quality. Marner brings greater impact than his contract, while mid-tier expenditures in goaltending and bottom six depth are some of the least cap efficient and least reliable pieces that exist. Did we not learn anything from this past offseason when we had 20m+ to spend and walked away with a whole bunch of things ranging from meh to disaster? Cup winners come in all shapes and sizes, but even the teams that do excel due to goaltending/defense/depth scoring usually don't do so because of significant cap allocation to those areas.

Winning a cup with goaltending tends to come in two forms. Either fluking into a top tier goalie in the draft a decade ago, or fluking into a hot streak from any random goalie at the right time. Money won't get us either of those things, and big cap allocations to goaltending usually just end up as a barrier to success.

Winning a cup with depth scoring tends to come from depth that is still cheap. Either ELCs/young players developing beyond their current pay, retained players, or some random cheap player hitting a hot streak. Money won't get us those things.

And while less so than goaltending and depth scoring, there's also pretty weak correlation between defensive spending and defensive results; especially through any given 20-30 game stretch. We have enough cap space to match the defensive spending of cup winners.

In past years, we have been able to have good defense, good scoring depth, and good goaltending, with our top players taking up a higher percentage of the cap than they will through the majority of their upcoming contracts, and without many of the advantages we will have moving forward. How do teams actually get good in these areas? Good drafting and good decisions. How will we improve back to that level? With our collection of quality ELC talent coming up through the system, and with good trades and signings. Not by sacrificing our best players and then throwing money at problems.

 

[mclaren55]

If we get rid of Marner and spend 12 million on goaltending, defense, and depth scoring, we would almost certainly experience a net loss in quality. Marner brings greater impact than his contract, while mid-tier expenditures in goaltending and bottom six depth are some of the least cap efficient and least reliable pieces that exist. Did we not learn anything from this past offseason when we had 20m+ to spend and walked away with a whole bunch of things ranging from meh to disaster? Cup winners come in all shapes and sizes, but even the teams that do excel due to goaltending/defense/depth scoring usually don't do so because of significant cap allocation to those areas.

Winning a cup with goaltending tends to come in two forms. Either fluking into a top tier goalie in the draft a decade ago, or fluking into a hot streak from any random goalie at the right time. Money won't get us either of those things, and big cap allocations to goaltending usually just end up as a barrier to success.

Winning a cup with depth scoring tends to come from depth that is still cheap. Either ELCs/young players developing beyond their current pay, retained players, or some random cheap player hitting a hot streak. Money won't get us those things.

And while less so than goaltending and depth scoring, there's also pretty weak correlation between defensive spending and defensive results; especially through any given 20-30 game stretch. We have enough cap space to match the defensive spending of cup winners.

In past years, we have been able to have good defense, good scoring depth, and good goaltending, with our top players taking up a higher percentage of the cap than they will through the majority of their upcoming contracts, and without many of the advantages we will have moving forward. How do teams actually get good in these areas? Good drafting and good decisions. How will we improve back to that level? With our collection of quality ELC talent coming up through the system, and with good trades and signings. Not by sacrificing our best players and then throwing money at problems.

Once again, we have a pretty weak farm system at the moment, no draft picks to trade along with assets, and no real ELC talent this year or next to help in our defense or depth scoring.

You basically just stated that all you need is a hot goalie and a good top 6 and you'll win the cup. I disagree with that assessment. Look at Colorado when they won, they had great depth on D. Their goaltending wasn't even great .902sv%, but they also had great depth scoring outside of their top 6. Look at Vegas last year, they were not top heavy, but rather distributed in terms of cap allocation across their lineup, as well as Hill rocking it.

So your assessment of having to fluke into drafting a goalie, or having one get hot at the right time isn't really factual. You just need "solid" goaltending to win, and you can buy that if you want too.

I won't get into your assessment of low correlation between defensive spending and cup wins. I need to see your data to refute your statement, I have an intuition that this is just a feeling you have. We do not have anywhere near the depth that any of the past 5 cup winners have had on D. You can't win a cup with 1 top 2 defenseman, and a bunch of bottom 4 guys.

Can you provide me with any context surrounding your belief that paying 4 forwards half your cap leads to playoff success? I can't find one example of a team built like that winning. I can however find examples of great defensive teams winning, great offensive teams with depth scoring winning, and goalies putting teams on their back and winning.

 

[DarkKnight]

So including postseason he's 2 for his last 25.

I was more interested in the times when he actually took a few in a season, but sure slant it that way to make a tortured point like it's clever.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I was more interested in the times when he actually took a few in a season, but sure slant it that way to make a tortured point like it's clever.

He hasn't taken many at all. The most he ever took in a season was 95; that was 6 years ago, and he hasn't taken more than 26 since. That same year Nylander took 650. As I pointed out in this same thread just yesterday "Career-wise, Mitch is 45.6% on 206 draws, and Willy is 50.4% on 1,831 draws."

You made the tortured point that he was reasonably good with a small sample size a long time ago, and I just pointed out how outdated that was.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He hasn't taken many at all. The most he ever took in a season was 95; that was 6 years ago, and he hasn't taken more than 26 since. That same year Nylander took 650. As I pointed out in this same thread just yesterday "Career-wise, Mitch is 45.6% on 206 draws, and Willy is 50.4% on 1,831 draws."

You made the tortured point that he was reasonably good with a small sample size a long time ago, and I just pointed out how outdated that was.

Oh well, back to goals scored per minutes played on the PK I guess. You know, Super Crazy Elite and so on.

 

[Antropovsky]

Good points but marners a better hoccey player let’s not kid ourselves I love Panarin but marners 200 ft game shouldn’t be ignored to focus on points alone I disagree that Panarin is a better player

As Babcock once said.. Wingers can essential fall asleep in the defensive zone because there responsibilities are far less than a centers. Watch a winger vs a center in the defensive zone and you will very quickly see the difference. If we want to add the value to his defense that people want to pin on him, less put him at center. If he can have a Bergeron affect...my tune would change. However, Marners fear of physical contact makes me believe he would fail to be the defensive star at center people seem to think he's capable of.

Marners history of bad playoffs, inability to produce without Matthews and even his <100 point production with Matthews (compared to Kucherov, Mcdavid, Mackinnon etc) and his propensity in playoffs to turnover the pucks that lead to critical and momentum killing goals against, coupled with his lack of clutch ability to score make it a very very easy choice for me that Panarin is the better player. Offensively... Panarin is quite easily the better performer.

 

[ACC1224]

Yet they seem reticent to try him there. In preseason, out of desperation because we were so thin (also explains why we gave Kampf his deal) but immediately abandoned the moment Minten looked plausible.

590 posited moving Mitch to center, which I’d entertain.

Moving him to center has never been a need but with Tavares aging that is obviously changing.
He'd thrive at Center no doubt and is probably the best option but I imagine they would try Nylander there first.

Good points but marners a better hoccey player let’s not kid ourselves I love Panarin but marners 200 ft game shouldn’t be ignored to focus on points alone I disagree that Panarin is a better player

Yeah no one takes Panarin over Marner if we're being honest.
Nylander and Panarin is a much closer comparable.

 

[mclaren55]

Moving him to center has never been a need but with Tavares aging that is obviously changing.
He'd thrive at Center no doubt and is probably the best option but I imagine they would try Nylander there first.

I'm not sure there is an example that exists where a career winger is moved to centre and succeeds. I highly doubt Marner will every play centre for this team, outside of having to due to injuries or something of that sort.

 

[ACC1224]

I'm not sure there is an example that exists where a career winger is moved to centre and succeeds. I highly doubt Marner will every play centre for this team, outside of having to due to injuries or something of that sort.

Not sure but it would take certain circumstances where it would be a need. That need is probably a rare occurrence.

 

[egd27]

I’m pretty sure nylanders started when he signed this deal not for next year

Correct

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah no one takes Panarin over Marner if we're being honest.
Nylander and Panarin is a much closer comparable.

Many people have recently said that they'd take Nylander over Marner. You seem to spend a ton of time on these boards, pretty weird that you somehow missed all of them.

In case you're having trouble with this, I'll spell it out for you. If Nylander and Panarin are as you say, close compareables, then the people who would take Nylander over Marner are therefore likely to take Panarin over Marner as well.

That is you know, if we're being honest.

 

[DarkKnight]

He hasn't taken many at all. The most he ever took in a season was 95; that was 6 years ago, and he hasn't taken more than 26 since. That same year Nylander took 650. As I pointed out in this same thread just yesterday "Career-wise, Mitch is 45.6% on 206 draws, and Willy is 50.4% on 1,831 draws."

You made the tortured point that he was reasonably good with a small sample size a long time ago, and I just pointed out how outdated that was.

No it was just a point based on all we had. I never mentioned Nylander, as it was about Mitch being "too weak" to take draws. Give context a try. You tried to make it look as bad as you could, which speaks more to where you're coming from. I'd argue 46 percent is pretty good given how few he's taken, relative to who you compared him too. My post stands, nothing you've said dissuades from a pretty simple point. Yes, six years ago when they gave him some faceoffs more regularly he was 53 percent, and now when he gets one every month he isn't. I've learned so much from the unnecessary soft bash retort, thanks.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Correct

View attachment 813175

I've read that the change is automatic as per the CBA. This says the 23-24 upgrade to NMC is a term in the new deal.

Someone is lying.

 

[ACC1224]

No it was just a point based on all we had. I never mentioned Nylander, as it was about Mitch being "too weak" to take draws. Give context a try. You tried to make it look as bad as you could, which speaks more to where you're coming from. I'd argue 46 percent is pretty good given how few he's taken, relative to who you compared him too. My post stands, nothing you've said dissuades from a pretty simple point. Yes, six years ago when they gave him some faceoffs more regularly he was 53 percent, and now when he gets one every month he isn't. I've learned so much from the unnecessary soft bash retort, thanks.

His faceoff percentage is probably a little lower than it should be as he would only take the draw after someone else had been tossed and he can't cheat and risk a penalty. I would think league wide, guys that come in after someone is tossed would have a lower percentage than normal.

 

[ToneDog]

Who cares how Matthews should react. It is his job to be at the highest level he can , with or without Marner. I would understand the question if they were the Sedin twins, The money from Marner spent wisely (that would not happen i know, but anyway) could wery well give us better depth and a good enough passer to not hamper Matthews goalscoring to much. Matthews is allready good enough to take care of the D on his own. I belive Marner would rocket on another team with less pressure.

It is all on the 3 amigos if they have to be broken up. IMO one of them should have been shipped out after they did not leave a penny on the table, and taking Dubas' lunch money.

 

[arso40]

As Babcock once said.. Wingers can essential fall asleep in the defensive zone because there responsibilities are far less than a centers. Watch a winger vs a center in the defensive zone and you will very quickly see the difference. If we want to add the value to his defense that people want to pin on him, less put him at center. If he can have a Bergeron affect...my tune would change. However, Marners fear of physical contact makes me believe he would fail to be the defensive star at center people seem to think he's capable of.

Marners history of bad playoffs, inability to produce without Matthews and even his <100 point production with Matthews (compared to Kucherov, Mcdavid, Mackinnon etc) and his propensity in playoffs to turnover the pucks that lead to critical and momentum killing goals against, coupled with his lack of clutch ability to score make it a very very easy choice for me that Panarin is the better player. Offensively... Panarin is quite easily the better performer.

Can’t argue with playoff stats but I honestly wouldn’t say marners Afraid of contact more he’s small cause he’ll throw his weight around but overall he’s still a better player won’t argue with his clutchness thus far though

 

[arso40]

Many people have recently said that they'd take Nylander over Marner. You seem to spend a ton of time on these boards, pretty weird that you somehow missed all of them.

In case you're having trouble with this, I'll spell it out for you. If Nylander and Panarin are as you say, close compareables, then the people who would take Nylander over Marner are therefore likely to take Panarin over Marner as well.

That is you know, if we're being honest.

I honestly wouldn’t say what my friend did cause I am one who would take willie over marner but I’d still take them both over bread man however the real problem is the 2c making 11 let’s not kid ourselves

 

[Gary Nylund]

Can’t argue with playoff stats but I honestly wouldn’t say marners Afraid of contact more he’s small cause he’ll throw his weight around but overall he’s still a better player won’t argue with his clutchness thus far though

I agree that it's not fair to say Marner's afraid of contact, he's just not a particularly physical player and that's fine. I do think he might have trouble with some of the big boys he'd have to deal with if he were moved to centre though. That's my only concern with him playing centre, not worried about faceoffs as that's not that big a deal one way or the other but yeah with guys like Crosby, Kopitar and so on, not sure I see Marner being to able to do a good job against them in our zone.

That's one reason why I think Matthews is more valuable defensively than Marner. He might not get as many Selke votes but whatever, that's pretty meaningless anyway IMHO.

I honestly wouldn’t say what my friend did cause I am one who would take willie over marner but I’d still take them both over bread man however the real problem is the 2c making 11 let’s not kid ourselves

We have lots of problems, take your pick. And yeah Marner/Nylander, that's a tough choice now IMO and many people have recently said they'd take Nylander, myself included. Not 100% sure that that's the right choice but today, that's who I take.

 

[notDatsyuk]

No it was just a point based on all we had. I never mentioned Nylander, as it was about Mitch being "too weak" to take draws. Give context a try. You tried to make it look as bad as you could, which speaks more to where you're coming from. I'd argue 46 percent is pretty good given how few he's taken, relative to who you compared him too. My post stands, nothing you've said dissuades from a pretty simple point. Yes, six years ago when they gave him some faceoffs more regularly he was 53 percent, and now when he gets one every month he isn't. I've learned so much from the unnecessary soft bash retort, thanks.

That wasn't the "point based on all we had" because if it had been, you would have looked at the full picture, instead of focusing on several years ago. That's context.

You hadn't mentioned Nylander, but he was discussed in the thread, and the passage I quoted was from that.

I wouldn't mind seeing Marner tried at 2C either, but I think Nylander is more suited to it, being a natural centre, and demonstrably better at faceoffs.

 

[Antropovsky]

Can’t argue with playoff stats but I honestly wouldn’t say marners Afraid of contact more he’s small cause he’ll throw his weight around but overall he’s still a better player won’t argue with his clutchness thus far though

He will throw his body only when he's under considerable scrutiny to perform. He will then throw a couple hit a out of desperation because he is fearful he will be perceived as "not caring". If 10 was the most afraid of contact a player could he, he'd be a 10. Other soft players at least occasional got engaged in after whistle shenanigans. Marner very clearly with his body language and facial and non eye contact makes it very clear he doesn't want anything of it. If.... If... He bothers even to go within 10' of it in the first place.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I've read that the change is automatic as per the CBA. This says the 23-24 upgrade to NMC is a term in the new deal.

Someone is lying.

Not necessarily.

As per the CBA, one of the terms of signing an extension with a full NTC, is that the full NTC becomes effective immediately.

It's a requirement of the CBA, as opposed to a gift from the GM.