Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[Gary Nylund]

The Selke or Norris for that matter are quite often retained by reputation once those players get noticed at that level but to get noticed at all usually takes years and does mean a lot. I mean it's not hard to look at the winners and nominees over the years and see how good the players are .

Hart itself is subjective and like most awards , more a popularity contest not necessarily who's the best complete players .

Whenever I've looked at the voting results, I've found that there are rarely any major discrepancies between Hart voting results, Ted Lindsey results and my own opinions so I feel comfortable saying that these are actually a very good indication of who the best players are in any given year.

The Selke on the other hand, while it's not nothing, is a comparative rabbit hole. I think a lot of voters have no idea how to assess a forwards defensive capabilities which is why it's based for more on reputation than the other awards. It's also a pretty dumb award to begin with, do we need a trophy for best offensive defenseman next?

Re. the bolded - I agree that being a good complete player is what counts, and that's yet another reason why I'm not very impressed with Selke votes.

 

[mclaren55]

What's the reported 'premium'?

The rumor mill I heard was 12.5. Whether or not that is reflective of reality is yet to be determined. If Marner took the same contract he currently has, that would be fair. Given his elite talents, he has never scored more than 100 points, and only cracked 30 goals twice in 8 years. I just don't understand how you justify allocating more than 11mil or 11-12% of the cap on him. You can replace that type of production on aggregate while addressing some of the more glaring issues on the team.

 

[ACC1224]

The rumor mill I heard was 12.5. Whether or not that is reflective of reality is yet to be determined. If Marner took the same contract he currently has, that would be fair. Given his elite talents, he has never scored more than 100 points, and only cracked 30 goals twice in 8 years. I just don't understand how you justify allocating more than 11mil or 11-12% of the cap on him. You can replace that type of production on aggregate while addressing some of the more glaring issues on the team.

Got it, thanks. It should be interesting what he eventually signs for.

 

[Arzak]

The rumor mill I heard was 12.5. Whether or not that is reflective of reality is yet to be determined. If Marner took the same contract he currently has, that would be fair. Given his elite talents, he has never scored more than 100 points, and only cracked 30 goals twice in 8 years. I just don't understand how you justify allocating more than 11mil or 11-12% of the cap on him. You can replace that type of production on aggregate while addressing some of the more glaring issues on the team.

It would be interesting to see Marner as C. In theory, he should be already covering most of the ice defensively now, so the only question is, can he face off over 50% ?

Put Mitch on 2C, show me he can carry his own line and I'll stfu. Right now we have 70G C who is by all accounts receiving Selke votes himself on the same line as legendary Mitch Marner. Feels like a waste.

Plus,at what price tag you get separated from Matthews? It's not like #34 will lose tons of assists or really needs anyone to set him up.

This way, we could play old man JT on the wing. win win win

 

[DarkKnight]

Moving Nylander to 2C would mitigate that somewhat. Having a 2C making $11.5 starting next year, while not optimal, isn't anywhere near as bad as having a 2C making $11 for the past 5 years.

Yet they seem reticent to try him there. In preseason, out of desperation because we were so thin (also explains why we gave Kampf his deal) but immediately abandoned the moment Minten looked plausible.

590 posited moving Mitch to center, which I’d entertain.

 

[studebaker17]

Yet they seem reticent to try him there. In preseason, out of desperation because we were so thin (also explains why we gave Kampf his deal) but immediately abandoned the moment Minten looked plausible.

590 posited moving Mitch to center, which I’d entertain.

Id like to put nylander at centre with marner on his wing . Marner plays a lot of the centres responsibilities anyways.

 

[DarkKnight]

Id like to put nylander at centre with marner on his wing . Marner plays a lot of the centres responsibilities anyways.

He does, generally first forward back too, sometimes to the detriment of his offence. I'd argue what you said supports a move to center, but Willie at C with him on his wing looks intriguing, with the obvious caveat, who feeds Matthews?

 

[Dekes For Days]

So he still had Selke win and additional nomination vs Marner?

He had 0 Selke wins or nominations when signing his first and second contracts post-ELC, and had just 1 win and 1 nomination when signing his last big contract.
Almost all of the wins and nominations you pointed to were completely irrelevant to his contracts.
It shouldn't be surprising to anybody that players who are elite offensively and defensively make more than players who are only elite defensively.

He maybe didn't have the "elite" passing of Marner, but he scored more goals

Through his career, up to the point of signing his last big contract, Bergeron averaged 22 goals per 82. So far through Marner's career, he has averaged 33 goals per 82.

since Marner entered the league, and Patrice retired, 2016-2023

This period of time is irrelevant to Bergeron's contracts.

Marner certainly isn't worth the premium he is placing on himself (as reported).

Marner is worth every penny we pay him, and then some. People just have skewed perceptions of what cap space is worth, by looking only at the most extreme outliers with improper evaluation methods.

 

[mclaren55]

Through his career, up to the point of signing his last big contract, Bergeron averaged 22 goals per 82. So far through Marner's career, he has averaged 33 goals per 82.

This period of time is irrelevant to Bergeron's contracts.

Marner is worth every penny we pay him, and then some. People just have skewed perceptions of what cap space is worth, by looking only at the most extreme outliers with improper evaluation methods.

Marner has averaged 27.8g/82 games played. Patrice also scored over twice as many goals as Marner in the playoffs, so there's that (over the period you defined).

Know what else Patrice had on Marner by the time of his "Big" contract (10.6% of Cap)? 2 Selkes, a Stanley Cup, and a King Clancy award.

Explain our "skewed" perceptions. I'm curious, because it seems almost every team that has won the cup in the last decade had a mentality of the "sum of the parts".

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yet they seem reticent to try him there. In preseason, out of desperation because we were so thin (also explains why we gave Kampf his deal) but immediately abandoned the moment Minten looked plausible.

590 posited moving Mitch to center, which I’d entertain.

I don't think Marner would do as well at centre. Has he ever played there? Willy was drafted as a centre, played junior there and still does for Sweden.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner has averaged 27.8g/82 games played.

You're right; my mistake. I mixed up the GP numbers. Point remains the same though. Marner is a better offensive player in pretty much every way.

Know what else Patrice had on Marner by the time of his "Big" contract (10.6% of Cap)? 2 Selkes, a Stanley Cup, and a King Clancy award.

He actually got 10.8% coming off his ELC, with nothing.
For his 10.7% one, he had 1 Selke, not 2, and King Clancy awards and team accomplishments aren't very relevant to his individual contract.
Players that are elite offensively and defensively will make more than players who are only elite defensively. This shouldn't be shocking to anybody.

Explain our "skewed" perceptions.

"X is overpaid!!!" usually boils down to cherry picking out a handful of contracts where the player and/or production went through significant positive changes post-signing, and attempting to make that the standard of what any particular amount of cap space is worth. They do not look at the full range of comparable signings. They do not look at what cap space is worth relative to impact. They do not look at how that cap space could actually be used. This leads to skewed perceptions where only significant underpayments relative to impact are deemed satisfactory. Objectively, Marner was paid in line with historical comparables. Objectively, Marner's impact over his contract exceeds his cap hit. Objectively, we would be worse off if we replaced Marner with the average impact gained from that amount of cap space, especially in UFA.

 

[Leafs87]

At 11 mill I’d argue that as a rental he’s not going to be worth much. Hell likely look to increase on his already high salary, so likely won’t sign an extension until he’s a FA and he can truly analyze all offers. I doubt any team would give up good value and offer him 12.5+ long term. He’s also got a NTC so if he prefers to not temporarily relocate next year he could just stay here.

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve seen very few cases were players get the kind of salaries Toronto give out.

 

[mclaren55]

You're right; my mistake. I mixed up the GP numbers. Point remains the same though. Marner is a better offensive player in pretty much every way.

He actually got 10.8% coming off his ELC, with nothing.
For his 10.7% one, he had 1 Selke, not 2, and King Clancy awards and team accomplishments aren't very relevant to his individual contract.
Players that are elite offensively and defensively will make more than players who are only elite defensively. This shouldn't be shocking to anybody.

"X is overpaid!!!" usually boils down to cherry picking out a handful of contracts where the player and/or production went through significant positive changes post-signing, and attempting to make that the standard of what any particular amount of cap space is worth. They do not look at the full range of comparable signings. They do not look at what cap space is worth relative to impact. They do not look at how that cap space could actually be used. This leads to skewed perceptions where only significant underpayments relative to impact are deemed satisfactory. Objectively, Marner was paid in line with historical comparables. Objectively, Marner's impact over his contract exceeds his cap hit. Objectively, we would be worse off if we replaced Marner with the average impact gained from that amount of cap space, especially in UFA.

Sorry, you are now quoting his 10.8% contract off of ELC, I thought we were talking about his 10.68%, second last contract. I'm a little confused here. Winning a cup certainly does inflate your contract and give you ammunition in negotiations, especially when you were one of the main vectors for that cup (20 points, +14 in 23 games played). Also, he had TWO Selkes by the time his contract kicked in, he won 2011/12 and 2013/14, that contract started in 2014/15. I assume you are talking about when the deal was signed, and not when it took effect?

I didn't say that Mitch Marner was overpaid, I said IF we pay him 12.5+, he will be. I stated 11.0 is more than acceptable for what he brings. Paying him an extra 1.5 for him "living up to" his existing contract is insane. Do you think Marner is worth 13-14% of Cap? 90-92 Mil cap by the time he is expected to have his next contract kick off would put him at 11.8-12.75 mil. You are comfortable with that, even though we will have about 37mil in 3 players? That's 41% of our cap in 3 players, whom to this point have failed to get past the second round.

I just don't see it (conference final or cup final) happening if that is going to be the strategy. We have horrible goaltending depth currently, poor defensive depth, and almost no tangible scoring from our bottom 6. Come playoffs, that is a recipe for disaster.

 

[JL17]

If we’re comparing Marner to Bergeron … let’s look at the long list of serious injuries Bergeron played thru in the playoffs to have that success, let’s look at the leadership and how well respected he is around the league. The point totals may go to Marner but everything else goes to Bergeron. I thought Bergeron was always under paid for what he did but he fit into the Boston mold.

 

[ACC1224]

If we’re comparing Marner to Bergeron … let’s look at the long list of serious injuries Bergeron played thru in the playoffs to have that success, let’s look at the leadership and how well respected he is around the league. The point totals may go to Marner but everything else goes to Bergeron. I thought Bergeron was always under paid for what he did but he fit into the Boston mold.

Bergeron was seriously underpaid.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sorry, you are now quoting his 10.8% contract off of ELC, I thought we were talking about his 10.68%, second last contract. I'm a little confused here.

The 10.69% contract was a bigger focus because that's when he had accumulated the most things that the original poster was talking about, but I was just pointing out that he got an even bigger percentage post-ELC, so this narrative that was forming that x and y are required for z cap hit percentage is wrong and not how contracts work.

Winning a cup certainly does inflate your contract

Historically, not for the overwhelming majority of players. It results in the occasional circumstance where a mid tier player is knowingly overpaid because keeping them from an organizational/fan perspective is worth the overpayment on the player's actual value. But there's no real evidence of it having any meaningful impact on the majority of contracts - especially top end ones.

I assume you are talking about when the deal was signed, and not when it took effect?

Of course. Future Selkes had no impact on his contract.

I didn't say that Mitch Marner was overpaid, I said IF we pay him 12.5+, he will be.

He still wouldn't be, unless he sees some abnormal drop-off. Especially with the cap about to skyrocket.

Do you think Marner is worth 13-14% of Cap?

Absolutely.

We have horrible goaltending depth currently, poor defensive depth, and almost no tangible scoring from our bottom 6.

Any goaltending, defensive, or bottom-six issues we have are not a result of our top-end spending.
Spending big money on these things is generally not why teams are good in these things.

 

[mclaren55]

Any goaltending, defensive, or bottom-six issues we have are not a result of our top-end spending.
Spending big money on these things is generally not why teams are good in these things.

I never stated we had to spend "big money", but a redistribution of wealth from our exceedingly top heavy approach to areas of concern is what the leafs should focus on. If Marner is not re-signed here, and we have an extra 12 million to spread out to help in those three (goaltending, depth scoring, defense) areas, the net benefit would outweigh the loss.

Most cup winners have three things in common, depth scoring, solid goaltending, and great defensive play. I think sacrificing 1 or 2 of our top contracts in the top 6 could help with those areas. I'm not sure how you address them otherwise. We have no cheap talent coming up through the system that can help (Woll aside), we have no leverage/assets to help us trade for it, the only way forward now is to try and improve via the UFA market.

By the way, I believe Marner is an incredible player, and I love watching him do what he does. I just don't see a path where having 3-5 (Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Reilly) guys making over 40-60% of your cap works (Unless they take zero nights off).

Right now, as has been the case in the past, we score enough, we need to stop getting scored on.

 

[arso40]

He has an NMC enforced. You cant move him. I believe you can move Nylander. Outside of that you can walk from him or JT after it expires. Thats all we have.

Marner NMC kicked in July
Nylanders start with new contract

I’m pretty sure nylanders started when he signed this deal not for next year

 

[DarkKnight]

Marner down from season start, which is fair for sure. Also true, he's still a top 25 player according to people who actually get paid for their perspective. Whiny retorts to TSN, not me...

 

[mclaren55]

Marner down from season start, which is fair for sure. Also true, he's still a top 25 player according to people who actually get paid for their perspective. Whiny retorts to TSN, not me...
View attachment 812923

So if he is the 24th best, why are we paying him like he is top 5?

 

[ToneDog]

So if he is the 24th best, why are we paying him like he is top 5?

Forget Mitch. We refused to pay 5.5m to #17th ranked Hyman and we are paying Tavares 11m and he's not even in the top 25, might not even be in the top 50.

 

[mclaren55]

Forget Mitch. We refused to pay 5.5m to #17th ranked Hyman and we are paying Tavares 11m and he's not even in the top 25, might not even be in the top 50.

Yea, I definitely agree with you. Tavares' regression has handcuffed the team for sure. I'm happy for Hyman though, loved him as a Leaf.

 

[ToneDog]

Yea, I definitely agree with you. Tavares' regression has handcuffed the team for sure. I'm happy for Hyman though, loved him as a Leaf.

Problem with Tavares is he probably will decline further next year when we will have less money to fill out the roster. Wonder if that thought crossed Shanny's mind when he and Tre decided to cave to Willie.

 

[Racer88]

It would be interesting to see Marner as C. In theory, he should be already covering most of the ice defensively now, so the only question is, can he face off over 50% ?

Put Mitch on 2C, show me he can carry his own line and I'll stfu. Right now we have 70G C who is by all accounts receiving Selke votes himself on the same line as legendary Mitch Marner. Feels like a waste.

Plus,at what price tag you get separated from Matthews? It's not like #34 will lose tons of assists or really needs anyone to set him up.

This way, we could play old man JT on the wing. win win win

I doubt he is strong enough to be effective in the face off

 

[Arzak]

I doubt he is strong enough to be effective in the face off

Bergy was the best face-off man, but frankly, if you watched him, the biggest cheater on the dot.

"Cheater". It was a sound strategy, he got thrown away half the time, trying to get an advantage. I swear that must be the stat he leads.