Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[francis246]

Last season Matthews had 51 EV goals. That's 5v5 and 4v4 but not 3v3.
Marner primary assisted on 15 of them and secondary assisted on 6
Nylander is next with 8 primary and 1 secondary
Domi 5 primary 0 secondary
Knives 4 primary 4 secondary

The rest have less that 5 combined including Rielly

Yeah so even with just that data it seems like Marner was pretty damn effective with Matthews compared to anyone else! What the hell was Bertuzzi doing last year LOL, you wanna talk about ineffective, just a complete passenger on that line. And I think they rotated between a bunch of guys on the left side early on in the year too no?

Assisted on 41% of Matthews goals, that’s pretty high especially since hockey has line changes and players can get caught out with a different line at times ect.

 

[francis246]

I think he means he made them feel like he was resigning and then he left cause I doubt they would trade their best player it’s not like us where we have 3 players who are in and around equivalent to Tavares and can afford to trade one

Exactly, if they had any indication that Tavares was seriously considering leaving, I think they would have traded him. They got duped bad.

 

[ACC1224]

Exactly, if they had any indication that Tavares was seriously considering leaving, I think they would have traded him. They got duped bad.

That’s on them IMO. Put a contract in front of him, if he wants to stay he signs, if not you move him.

 

[666]

I’m trying to validate the claim Antro made by saying Marner wasn’t effective 5 on 5 with Matthews. He posted Marner’s 5 on 5 assists and did not post any other line mates.

So I wanted to create a ratio between Matthews assisted 5 on 5 goals and Marner’s 5 on 5 assists totals on Matthews goals to verify the validity of the statement. A bit complex of an ask but it’s the only way to really know for sure.

Last year Matthews assisted by
EV
Player First Assists Second Assists
Bobby McMann 0 1
Calle Jarnkrok 1 0
Conor Timmins 1 0
Ilya Lyubushkin 1 1
Jake McCabe 1 2
John Tavares 1 2
Mark Giordano 1 0
Matthew Knies 4 4
Max Domi 5 0
Mitchell Marner 15 6
Morgan Rielly 2 4
Nicholas Robertson 0 1
Noah Gregor 1 1
Pontus Holmberg 3 2
Timothy Liljegren 1 1
TJ Brodie 2 3
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 2
William Lagesson 0 1
William Nylander 8 1

5v5
Bobby McMann 0 1
Calle Jarnkrok 1 0
Conor Timmins 1 0
Ilya Lyubushkin 1 1
Jake McCabe 1 2
Mark Giordano 1 0
Matthew Knies 4 4
Max Domi 5 0
Mitchell Marner 10 5
Morgan Rielly 1 1
Noah Gregor 1 0
Pontus Holmberg 3 1
Timothy Liljegren 1 1
TJ Brodie 2 3
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 2
William Lagesson 0 1
William Nylander 4 1

He's trying to be disingenuous by using 5v5 instead of EV.
This is where he gets his numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=s&playerid=8479318

 

[thusk]

3 goals in 4 games says your missing someone

I don't to dismish what he did, it was extremely importsnt for the team but actually i think 2 of those play are more luck than anything else.

a weak shot from blue line than even Reaves can take and for no reason mcavoy try to block it and deflected it in the net unstead...

1 he just took a shot with goalie already beaten after Carlo felt alone in the corner and gave up the puck free to matthews

It was really fortunate and pretty important goal but should we really considerate him like been amaizing because of 2 lucky play?

 

[francis246]

Last year Matthews assisted by
EV
Player First Assists Second Assists
Bobby McMann 0 1
Calle Jarnkrok 1 0
Conor Timmins 1 0
Ilya Lyubushkin 1 1
Jake McCabe 1 2
John Tavares 1 2
Mark Giordano 1 0
Matthew Knies 4 4
Max Domi 5 0
Mitchell Marner 15 6
Morgan Rielly 2 4
Nicholas Robertson 0 1
Noah Gregor 1 1
Pontus Holmberg 3 2
Timothy Liljegren 1 1
TJ Brodie 2 3
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 2
William Lagesson 0 1
William Nylander 8 1

5v5
Bobby McMann 0 1
Calle Jarnkrok 1 0
Conor Timmins 1 0
Ilya Lyubushkin 1 1
Jake McCabe 1 2
Mark Giordano 1 0
Matthew Knies 4 4
Max Domi 5 0
Mitchell Marner 10 5
Morgan Rielly 1 1
Noah Gregor 1 0
Pontus Holmberg 3 1
Timothy Liljegren 1 1
TJ Brodie 2 3
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 2
William Lagesson 0 1
William Nylander 4 1

He's trying to be disingenuous by using 5v5 instead of EV.
This is where he gets his numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=s&playerid=8479318

Thanks I did a quick comparison among other star pairings and the Matthews/Marner duo ranks high than Kucherov assisting on Points EV strength goals (was shocked by this). Marner assisting on 41% of Matthews goals is among the league leaders. Yup, pretty clear why the organization is hesitant to split them up. I just pray to God these guys get it done in the playoffs so these narratives can finally go away. Today was insightful.

 

[francis246]

That’s on them IMO. Put a contract in front of him, if he wants to stay he signs, if not you move him.

For sure and maybe they did, that whole situation, not a lot has come out about it.

 

[thewave]

For sure and maybe they did, that whole situation, not a lot has come out about it.

TSN list says Rantanen is 8th. Marner 9th. So why not offer him 12M. He has a lot of endorsements here. If he doesn't take it say we are fishing elsewhere.

If he wants more drop the NMC after 2 or 3 years. Isn't that fair?

 

[francis246]

TSN list says Rantanen is 8th. Marner 9th. So why not offer him 12M. He has a lot of endorsements here. If he doesn't take it say we are fishing elsewhere.

If he wants more drop the NMC after 2 or 3 years. Isn't that fair?

I do think Marner will ultimately fall in the 12 million range tbh, if he does return to the leafs. Somewhere above Nylander, under Matthews.

 

[Legion34]

That’s on them IMO. Put a contract in front of him, if he wants to stay he signs, if not you move him.

Yep. That’s why Marner completely refusing to negotiate and discuss trade is so unique

 

[666]

Thanks I did a quick comparison among other star pairings and the Matthews/Marner duo ranks high than Kucherov assisting on Points EV strength goals (was shocked by this). Marner assisting on 41% of Matthews goals is among the league leaders. Yup, pretty clear why the organization is hesitant to split them up. I just pray to God these guys get it done in the playoffs so these narratives can finally go away. Today was insightful.

Glad to help. Last regular season Matthews sh% was 18.7 and in the last 3 games of the playoffs in the last 4 seasons (12 games) his sh% was 4.25%
He's getting the same number of shots per game they just aren't going in. If he can do that they'll fine.
I'm off for the night.

 

[666]

Thanks I did a quick comparison among other star pairings and the Matthews/Marner duo ranks high than Kucherov assisting on Points EV strength goals (was shocked by this). Marner assisting on 41% of Matthews goals is among the league leaders. Yup, pretty clear why the organization is hesitant to split them up. I just pray to God these guys get it done in the playoffs so these narratives can finally go away. Today was insightful.

It should be noted that Marner assist on 41% of Matthews' EV goals and 41% of his 5v5 goals as well as there are only 38 5v5 goals.

 

[arso40]

I don't to dismish what he did, it was extremely importsnt for the team but actually i think 2 of those play are more luck than anything else.

a weak shot from blue line than even Reaves can take and for no reason mcavoy try to block it and deflected it in the net unstead...

1 he just took a shot with goalie already beaten after Carlo felt alone in the corner and gave up the puck free to matthews

It was really fortunate and pretty important goal but should we really considerate him like been amaizing because of 2 lucky play?

lol now you sound like a hater if I’m being honest he scored our last three goals won us games and that’s your response is the shot from the blue line he took?

 

[francis246]

Glad to help. Last regular season Matthews sh% was 18.7 and in the last 3 games of the playoffs in the last 4 seasons (12 games) his sh% was 4.25%
He's getting the same number of shots per game they just aren't going in. If he can do that they'll fine.
I'm off for the night.

That’s a drastic drop

Thanks my friend, appreciate your help honestly

 

[Leaf Fans]

Last year Matthews assisted by
EV
Player First Assists Second Assists
Bobby McMann 0 1
Calle Jarnkrok 1 0
Conor Timmins 1 0
Ilya Lyubushkin 1 1
Jake McCabe 1 2
John Tavares 1 2
Mark Giordano 1 0
Matthew Knies 4 4
Max Domi 5 0
Mitchell Marner 15 6
Morgan Rielly 2 4
Nicholas Robertson 0 1
Noah Gregor 1 1
Pontus Holmberg 3 2
Timothy Liljegren 1 1
TJ Brodie 2 3
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 2
William Lagesson 0 1
William Nylander 8 1

5v5
Bobby McMann 0 1
Calle Jarnkrok 1 0
Conor Timmins 1 0
Ilya Lyubushkin 1 1
Jake McCabe 1 2
Mark Giordano 1 0
Matthew Knies 4 4
Max Domi 5 0
Mitchell Marner 10 5
Morgan Rielly 1 1
Noah Gregor 1 0
Pontus Holmberg 3 1
Timothy Liljegren 1 1
TJ Brodie 2 3
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 2
William Lagesson 0 1
William Nylander 4 1

He's trying to be disingenuous by using 5v5 instead of EV.
This is where he gets his numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=s&playerid=8479318

That is the norm. If he claims it is raining, you have to look outside.

 

[thusk]

lol now you sound like a hater if I’m being honest he scored our last three goals won us games and that’s your response is the shot from the blue line he took?

You can think what you want

Watch all the space he had in the net to shoot and distance from the net

long distance wrist shot from a bad angle, no screen with Swayman seeing perfectly the puck.. This puck had no chance to go in if mcavoy just let his goalie making his work. He could tried the same play 1000 time and it would maybe goes in once...

And it's the 2 play who should determinate if a player played good enough?!?!

 

[arso40]

You can think what you want

Watch all the space he had in the net to shoot and distance from the net

View attachment 997101

long distance wrist shot from a bad angle, no screen with Swayman seeing perfectly the puck.. This puck had no chance to go in if mcavoy just let his goalie making his work. He could tried the same play 1000 time and it would maybe goes in once...

View attachment 997102

And it's the 2 play who should determinate if a player played good enough?!?!

No not at all should it be the determined off of 2 plays he was our best skater wouldn’t you agree excluding woll since Hes a goalie

 

[Nineteen67]

Use Colorado as an example then, 1 time out of the 2nd round the whole time Mac has been there... Mac should have been traded.

It's amazing you haven't grasped that concept despite the fact it's been explained to you almost every day.

That’s a great example of the progression that people analyzing the core would like to see.

 

[arso40]

That’s a great example of the progression that people analyzing the core would like to see.

The difference is they moved off the original core and only kept mac o’rielly gone duchene gone Barrie gone the captain was the only other one to stay

 

[Nineteen67]

The difference is they moved off the original core and only kept mac o’rielly gone duchene gone Barrie gone the captain was the only other one to stay

They struggled to make the playoffs early in his career but they shifted and then eventually got Makar and turned into contenders.

The Cup was not a realistic expectation after we saw what they really are, but winning a couple of rounds, and at least making the Eastern final once was not too much to expect.

If they had the Canes success I would be very happy and would consider it a successful run.

 

[LeafEgo]

Yep. That’s why Marner completely refusing to negotiate and discuss trade is so unique

It's too distracting. In season?

Complete pandemonium.

He's thinking about his teammates. He even had to block Ranta coming here for eight years to make sure they would be ok.


Alternatively, it could actually be Marner getting squeezed here, which would be shitty for him.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

You can think what you want

Watch all the space he had in the net to shoot and distance from the net

View attachment 997101

long distance wrist shot from a bad angle, no screen with Swayman seeing perfectly the puck.. This puck had no chance to go in if mcavoy just let his goalie making his work. He could tried the same play 1000 time and it would maybe goes in once...

View attachment 997102

And it's the 2 play who should determinate if a player played good enough?!?!

Who would've guessed 2 entire GOALS would influence how a player played. Nylander should've just pulled a matthews/marner in montreal and dominated but scored 1 goal and have a xG of like 9.

firstly, talking about that game 7 goal. We've literally seen Marner get robbed by price on a similar chance, we've seen tavares miss a WIDE open net against columbus. We've seen Matthews get robbed by Vasi only for us to get scored on. Our players struggle to score so for nylander to be putting the puck in the net isn't a "fluke" or "not good" play, it is a high end finisher doing what finishers do.

secondly, nylander also had 4-5 really good chances in game 7 alone that didn't go in. So he didn't just score on the only chance he had in the game, to you that must be good.

thirdly, up to that point nylander had scored both goals in game 6 to force a game 7, he was our best player going into game 7 and he delivered there too

now let's move onto the second goal

firstly, if that's how you describe nylander's goal than I could easily say the same about Marner. Against tampa he scored an unscreened slapshot from the point AND a turnaround deflected slapshot from the point, he then followed it up with wrist shot from the point against florida for his 3 goals that run.

secondly, who cares 'if he could make the same play 1000' times and it won't go in, the team and he got the 1 that matters. Can't believe you are penalizing/diminishing the value of a GOAL, not a post, not a shot stopped, not an xgoal, but a real goal that went in and gave us the lead.

side point, also nice how you just left out how he go the puck out of our zone, then scored the breakaway on swayman for the 2nd and GWG in game 6

you are literally diminishing his play with the statements you made.

 

[thusk]

No not at all should it be the determined off of 2 plays he was our best skater wouldn’t you agree excluding woll since Hes a goalie

That's, it's an other thing... It's not what you said. But i'm agree offensively he had been great but Nylander playing a high risk game who also coming with bad thing especially in the defensive side

You know even if Nylander missed 3 game and played less time vs pastrnak or marchand line, leafs allowed more HDC to bruins with Nylander on the ice ( 20) than Marner (18) at EV. It's about 5 HDCA/ game for Nylander and 2,6 for Marner. Basically 2X more when Nylander had been on the ice. Imagine giving that much scoring chance to Tkachuk or Kucherov line, do you think that would still good enough to help the team? litteraly what's happening 2 year ago vs Tampa and that's didn't looking good...

So yes even Nylander need to be a better player 200 feet in the ice

 

[arso40]

Who would've guessed 2 entire GOALS would influence how a player played. Nylander should've just pulled a matthews/marner in montreal and dominated but scored 1 goal and have a xG of like 9.

firstly, talking about that game 7 goal. We've literally seen Marner get robbed by price on a similar chance, we've seen tavares miss a WIDE open net against columbus. We've seen Matthews get robbed by Vasi only for us to get scored on. Our players struggle to score so for nylander to be putting the puck in the net isn't a "fluke" or "not good" play, it is a high end finisher doing what finishers do.

secondly, nylander also had 4-5 really good chances in game 7 alone that didn't go in. So he didn't just score on the only chance he had in the game, to you that must be good.

thirdly, up to that point nylander had scored both goals in game 6 to force a game 7, he was our best player going into game 7 and he delivered there too

now let's move onto the second goal

firstly, if that's how you describe nylander's goal than I could easily say the same about Marner. Against tampa he scored an unscreened slapshot from the point AND a turnaround deflected slapshot from the point, he then followed it up with wrist shot from the point against florida for his 3 goals that run.

secondly, who cares 'if he could make the same play 1000' times and it won't go in, the team and he got the 1 that matters. Can't believe you are penalizing/diminishing the value of a GOAL, not a post, not a shot stopped, not an xgoal, but a real goal that went in and gave us the lead.

side point, also nice how you just left out how he go the puck out of our zone, then scored the breakaway on swayman for the 2nd and GWG in game 6

you are literally diminishing his play with the statements you made.

The devils work is what that is

 

[arso40]

That's, it's an other thing... It's not what you said. But i'm agree offensively he had been great but Nylander playing a high risk game who also coming with bad thing especially in the defensive side

You know even if Nylander missed 3 game and played less time vs pastrnak or marchand line, leafs allowed more HDC to bruins with Nylander on the ice ( 20) than Marner (18) at EV. It's about 5 HDCA/ game for Nylander and 2,6 for Marner. Basically 2X more when Nylander had been on the ice. Imagine giving that much scoring chance to Tkachuk or Kucherov line, do you think that would still good enough to help the team? litteraly what's happening 2 year ago vs Tampa and that's didn't looked great...

So yes even Nylander need to be a better player 200 feet in the ice

Period offensive defensive I never specified he was our best skater what I said to you was he scored 3 goals in 4 games cause you mentioned woll was the only person that played good or whatever it was you said