Looks... always feelings and looks.
Only series win, it was Marner with Matthews by the way.
Use stats, please.
Mitch Marner, Yet Again
- Thread starter SoupNazi
- Start date
Looks... always feelings and looks.
Only series win, it was Marner with Matthews by the way.
Use stats, please.
666
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5v5 Marner didn't contribute all that much last year to Matthews goals:
2023-2024 - Marner assists on Matthews goals
16 primary assists and 9 secondary assists for a total of 25 assists.
2024-2025 - Marner assists on Matthews goals
12 primary assists and 7 secondary assists for a total 19 total assists.
Also, Knies was a rookie last year and more mature and experienced this year compared to last. Also happens to be one of the top 5v5 goal scorers this year. So it more than likely balances out.
What's dropped the most for Marner this year vs last is his 5v5 goal totals. His g/60 over his career is up and down, a few years ago it was just 7%, last year it was 15%... this year it's 10%. Makes sense.
Divine
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Here are the stats:
Nylander had 98 points last year and signed for 11.5M.
Marner has peaked at 99 points 2 seasons ago and likely won't hit 98 points this year despite playing with better players than Nylander does.
Great put him with Laughton, will give us another 35 goal a year guy.
How many primary assists did Marner have on Matthews power play goals? Or are we arbitrarily deciding those goals don’t matter now too?
Again those stats without context mean nothing. Post how many of Matthews goals were assisted vs unassisted to support your argument that Marner wasn’t that effective with Matthews and also post the pp numbers so we get the full picture, don’t set it up for a narrative based argument.
Divine
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Like you said, show us the stats that show us Marner can outproduce Nylander with Tavares or that Nylander would produce less with Matthews than Tavares.
Stop reverting to your feelings. I put up the stats. You put up the stats. Not your thoughts and feelings.
Any impartial person would argue you'd produce more playing with Matthews and Knies than Tavares and whatever 3rd/4th liner is the second winger on that line that game.
Why does it have to be Matthews scoring on the PP? The other players scoring on the PP isnt the same?...Is Marner less likely to assist on a Nylander PP goal than a Matthews PP goal? The Leafs PP scored 57 goals in 82 games last year. The leafs PP scored 48 goals in 69 games this year, thats a 57 goal pace.
Fine you want to exclude pp, let’s stick to 5v5, do what I asked. Provide data on Matthews goals assisted vs unassisted 5 on 5, so that we know you aren’t cherry picking the stats. The data if you’re confident should support your claims.
Don't forget Nylander has 15 goals in his last 29 postseason games and Marner has 6 in the same time frame.
Your claim is that Marner isn’t that effective with Matthews 5 v 5. You provided only Marner’s assist totals and not Knies’ totals and not any other winger who played with him last year (Bertuzzi and Domi for example), you also didn’t provide the totals for how many of Matthews goals were assisted vs unassisted, so we can compare Marner’s assists to Matthews goals scored from assists and get a ratio.
Essentially I feel like you’ve just cherry picked a few stats. You can’t really draw any conclusions from your post. If I was a coach those are the stats I’d want to see along side the stats you posted so I can see proper ratios and get a full picture of Marner’s effectiveness 5 on 5 when it comes to Matthews goals. Hopefully I explained it a little clearer/better
Divine
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Oh, you want to use the pace argument now?
Okay, how about this:
Nylander signed his 11.5M x 8 contract on January 8, 2024 with these stats last season:
37GP: 21G - 33A - 54P
He was on pace for 119 points and fourth in league scoring.
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666
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Lot's of numbers flying today:
These are all of Marners assists the last two years regular season:
Last season:
Auston Matthews 33
John Tavares 6
Matthew Knies 5
William Nylander 4
Jake McCabe 3
Max Domi 2
Bobby McMann 2
Tyler Bertuzzi 2
Morgan Rielly 1
David Kämpf 1
This season:
Auston Matthews 16
Matthew Knies 13
John Tavares 11
William Nylander 10
Bobby McMann 4
Morgan Rielly 2
Pontus Holmberg 1
Chris Tanev 1
Max Domi 1
Jake McCabe 1
Steven Lorentz 1
Philippe Myers 1
With Matthews struggling Marner has found new people to pass to.
It's pretty remarkable that he has 17 fewer assist on Matthews goals this season so far.
His breakdown between PP and even strength is about the same.
I was with you up until the in reality if part we don’t need to go there everything sounds like a bunch of excuses marner hasn’t gotten any better eye test and stats both show that we don’t need the hypotheticals and excuses facts are facts one players getting better the other is declining or remaining stagnant and not in a good space to be stagnant at all
Just FYI a quick search showed that no other player even got remotely close to 25 assists (primary, secondary or combined) on Matthews 5 on 5 goals. So that right there negates your whole argument. And that’s likely the reason why you intentionally did not post Domi’s, Bertuzzi’s or Knies numbers, or even Nylander’s when they played together a few times.
If I had to hazard a guess, you will now use some sort of pacing stat, like A/60 for a player like Domi to tell me I’m wrong!
No one plays with him to get 25 assists on matthews goals if that’s what your saying maybe in reading it wrong
25 assists on Matthews 5 on 5 goals is almost half of his 5 on 5 goals, what are you talking about? That’s why I asked for a complete break down of assisted vs unassisted goals. If you break it down by assisted goals I’d estimate it’s even higher than 50% of Matthews assisted 5 on 5 goals and antroprovsky knows this is true. He can’t even deny that.
Ngl this convo might be a little too complex for ya baud
Sundinisagod
****
Martin Skoula
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Do you see him playing borderline 1D minutes at 22+ minutes a night on both special teams through his 30s? He’ll still be dangerous but he’s getting paid based on being this all situations workhorse right now, that’s usually either a young man’s game or a big man’s game.
666
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Here is everyone who assisted on Matthews' goals last season:
Mitch Marner 33
William Nylander 18
Morgan Rielly 10
Matthew Knies 8
John Tavares 8
T.J. Brodie 5
Pontus Holmberg 5
Max Domi 5
Tyler Bertuzzi 3
Jake McCabe 3
Timothy Liljegren 3
Noah Gregor 2
Ilya Lyubushkin 2
Mark Giordano 1
Conor Timmins 1
Calle Järnkrok 1
John Klingberg 1
William Lagesson 1
Bobby McMann 1
Nicholas Robertson 1
The whole Max Domi thing was more about the entire line not Max, but you're dealing with a guy who is disingenuous, he should be avoided.
