Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[PromisedLand]

If it's all about overpay and NMC. Let him go.

If it's overpay but no NMC or limited. Keep him within reason.

JT should be a 1x7m

McDavid should be aware we made cap space for him if he wants.

If Tre follows the above, Leafs win.

McJesus would be an awesome get but not sure thats gonna happen. McDavid is tight with Drai, and they resigned Drai; I think McDavid is probably re-upping back in Edmonton

Bruins have historically moved on with problem "employees" if I can call it that and didn't really miss a beat much since 2002 (When Chara, Bergeron, Marchand all were together); - thats a decent 23 yr run IMO they got 1 cup, SCF finish and conference finals/2nd round finishes. Not bad IMO. Now they are on the path to rebuild

Avs freakin traded Rantanen ffs and just became a better team IMO after TDL. Agree with the following tweet




Under no circumstances should Tre overpay at all. I don't think even a limited NTC should be afforded to Marner it should be a big list of teams - he should get at max 10 teams he won't accept a trade and most certainly nothing more than 12 AAV

 

[ClarkSittler]

Rantanen is a good player with some good qualities, and nobody said he is one dimensional, but his playoff track record is often misunderstood, and he's just not on the same level. He's closer to a Nylander. You are overvaluing the impact of goal scoring, and undervaluing the impact of playmaking, defense, etc. At the end of the day, overall quality and impact matters most.

While it’s fair to say that goal-scoring isn’t the only factor in evaluating a player’s impact, it’s completely misguided to downplay Mikko Rantanen’s overall value. He isn’t just an elite scorer, he’s a dominant all-around force who consistently delivers in the biggest moments. Unlike Mitch Marner, Rantanen has proven he can elevate his game when it matters most, particularly in the playoffs.


Marner is a fantastic playmaker, but his postseason performances have consistently underwhelmed, especially when the pressure is highest. Meanwhile, Rantanen was a key driving force in the Colorado Avalanche’s Stanley Cup run, posting 25 points in 20 playoff games in 2022. He has repeatedly shown he can thrive in physical, high-stakes environments (something Marner has struggled with).


Beyond the stats, Rantanen’s combination of size, skill, and scoring ability makes him a more versatile offensive weapon than Marner. He’s a high-end playmaker in his own right, but he also brings elite goal-scoring ability that Marner simply doesn’t match. When you factor in their playoff performances, physicality, and ability to take over games, Rantanen has a stronger case as the more impactful, well-rounded player.

That was in response to somebody doing the same thing. I backed up my position. They didn't.

That's incorrect. Somebody used TSN rankings to compare the players and you countered with "but the actual hockey world values Marner more" those are not one and the same.

You haven't backed up your position at all, except using a vague reference to a contract with zero context.

 

[William Johnson]

- I backed them up. The guy you ignored doing the same thing didn't. You didn't.

- I'm not sure why you would use it differently than what it means. I don't.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Toronto's willingness to go after Rantanen just tells us two things

1) Tre doesnt think Marner has the chops to get it done in the playoffs
or
2) Marner is being absolutely unreasonable in contract negotiations, so Tre MUST do what is right by the team and not bendover to the whims of a player. Tre has dealt with this scenario before in Calgary so he is approaching things with caution which is good to know as a Leafs fan

To me that means Tre is very open to HUGE change and thats a good thing IMO. I would say seismic changes upcoming in the summer but for now I suppose TBD

Sure, but why is he negotiating with Marner at all?

If he signs him it has to come with at least a 10 team trade list. Absolute minimum. However, the best option is to free up the cap space, no question in my mind. You could pick up two strong players to play on two lines, they might only get .6 or .7 PPG EACH (with cash left over for more).

I say let him walk. Leafs need to get back to the roots in which they had success, heavy power forward, physical D and then you sprinkle in the Matthews, Nylander and Robertsons of the world to keep the other teams on their toes.

JT, Marner, Matthews and Nylander and even Reilly all have the same personality types on the ice. Individually that's not a bad thing, as a group, that's a losing formula when the games rise in intensity as history has shown.

 

[ClarkSittler]

No, you have made assertions just because you say so. I have made assertions based on GM actions, objective information, and the data of what stats and factors contracts actually correlate with throughout cap era history.

You've done no such thing.

I backed them up. The guy you ignored doing the same thing didn't.

No you didn't

I'm not sure why you would use it differently than what it means.

I'm not sure you know what it means period.

 

[thewave]

McJesus would be an awesome get but not sure thats gonna happen. McDavid is tight with Drai, and they resigned Drai; I think McDavid is probably re-upping back in Edmonton

Bruins have historically moved on with problem "employees" if I can call it that and didn't really miss a beat much since 2002 (When Chara, Bergeron, Marchand all were together); - thats a decent 23 yr run IMO they got 1 cup, SCF finish and conference finals/2nd round finishes. Not bad IMO. Now they are on the path to rebuild

Avs freakin traded Rantanen ffs and just became a better team IMO after TDL. Agree with the following tweet




Under no circumstances should Tre overpay at all. I don't think even a limited NTC should be afforded to Marner it should be a big list of teams - he should get at max 10 teams he won't accept a trade and most certainly nothing more than 12 AAV

Pure speculation I swear, but I think AM will be good after Mitch is gone and the dressing room will be less heavy. I think younger players will feel cap will be available to them in the future and motivation will be back.

I think it's the only thing to do. If he accepts limited trade, that works too.

McDavid is 50/50

 

[Mess]

Food for thought, Treliving would rather have Rantanen over Marner + Cowen + Minten + 2 x 1st round picks.

Some Leaf fans believe Marner > Rantanen
&
Leafs GM BT thinks Rantanen (re-signed) > Marner + Cowen + Minten + 2 X 1st round picks.

These 2 equations above don't seem to compute, as there appears to be quite a discrepancy difference here.

 

[leafs in five]

No he wasn’t he was good when the game was out of reach as usual

And we know from history that the 1-0 goal in an eventual blowout and a goals to bring a game to within 2 are the empty calorie sort

 

[PromisedLand]

Sure, but why is he negotiating with Marner at all?

If he signs him it has to come with at least a 10 team trade list. Absolute minimum. However, the best option is to free up the cap space, no question in my mind. You could pick up two strong players to play on two lines, they might only get .6 or .7 PPG EACH (with cash left over for more).

I say let him walk. Leafs need to get back to the roots in which they had success, heavy power forward, physical D and then you sprinkle in the Matthews, Nylander and Robertsons of the world to keep the other teams on their toes.

JT, Marner, Matthews and Nylander and even Reilly all have the same personality types on the ice. Individually that's not a bad thing, as a group, that's a losing formula when the games rise in intensity as history has shown.

I think its about time we start thinking about scoring by committee. Marner may put up 80+ points per season at 12 to 13 AAV; we can still get that kinda production spread out by having wingers who put up say 40 to 50 point each per season and we are paying them about 5.5 to 6.5 AAV each that also bolsters some depth scoring and can help in the playoffs and they could add in some different styles of play like power forwards, sand paper. Basically a different look would help out IMO

Putting eggs in basket that is marner that doesn't do much in the playoffs is a page I'd like to turn over. Its been 7+ years now somethings gotta give. if Leafs win teh cup this season then i don't really care if they pay marner 50 million per year LOL but leafs winning the cup this season given some historical evidence seems unlikely

As a Leafs fan obviously I am cheering for the Leafs to win the cup every season but quite frankly being realistic that seems less likely for this season IMO

 

[Racer88]

If were still living in reality Marner is still worth less than Rantanen.

Definitely not Draisaitl or Mack money like a couple of the lunatics around here were trying to proclaim.

Then again this all might be moot cause it seems the possibility of Marner walking via ufa has really gotten some legs this past week

What is he really worth? From a standpoint if we flame out in the playoffs again.
Would it be totally his fault, probably not but it would be 9 years of early exits from the playoffs so changes would need to be made. We can’t just keep giving more and more money to the same 4 guys. That would be way worse than him walking for nothing. That said, him walking for nothing would be bad player management and that would be mainly on Dubas, Tre and Shanny.
So I say again we cannot just keep throwing more and more and more and more money at these 4 guys if they can make some sort of playoff improvement this year

 

[Legion34]

No, you have made assertions just because you say so. I have made assertions based on GM actions, objective information, and the data of what stats and factors contracts actually correlate with throughout cap era history.

I backed them up. The guy you ignored doing the same thing didn't.

I'm not sure why you would use it differently than what it means.

Sweet Jesus. You were the one who said actual hockey people value Marner more. You have zero evidence of this. You said that actual “hockey people” which requires more than one citation. You provided zero.

You said. “I believe that people will think what I think” because I say so

You have decided that “actual hockey people” use a made up “primary points” category which is not cited by anyone, is not a recognized metric by the NHL and isn’t on basic hockey sites.

You also have moved the goal posts to include points and primary points.

Thats not the discussion it isn’t comparing a 40 goal 80 pt player to a 30 goal 110pt player.

This is comparing at 42 goal 100pt pace player to a 30 g 102 pt pace player.

Even ignoring that rantanen actually produced more and is healthier.

Goals are weighted more than your completely made up and irrelevant primary points stat.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Some Leaf fans believe Marner > Rantanen
&
Leafs GM BT thinks Rantanen (re-signed) > Marner + Cowen + Minten + 2 X 1st round picks.

These 2 equations above don't seem to compute, as there appears to be quite a discrepancy difference here.

Quote from one of those so called fans:

"Some media personalities might like Rantanen more, but the actual hockey world values Marner more, and recognises that he is the better hockey player."

So called fan has been asked 10 times to prove it, he just gave us back 10 thousand meaningless words instead.

 

[IPS]

Sweet Jesus. You were the one who said actual hockey people value Marner more. You have zero evidence of this. You said that actual “hockey people” which requires more than one citation. You provided zero.

You said. “I believe that people will think what I think” because I say so

You have decided that “actual hockey people” use a made up “primary points” category which is not cited by anyone, is not a recognized metric by the NHL and isn’t on basic hockey sites.

You also have moved the goal posts to include points and primary points.

Thats not the discussion it isn’t comparing a 40 goal 80 pt player to a 30 goal 110pt player.

This is comparing at 42 goal 100pt pace player to a 30 g 102 pt pace player.

Even ignoring that rantanen actually produced more and is healthier.

Goals are weighted more than your completely made up and irrelevant primary points stat.

You've done about all you can. You keep proving him wrong but he keeps dragging you into this circular nonsense. Don't worry, we all know who's right.

 

[IPS]

Quote from one of those so called fans:

"Some media personalities might like Rantanen more, but the actual hockey world values Marner more, and recognises that he is the better hockey player."

So called fan has been asked 10 times to prove it, he just gave us back 10 thousand meaningless words instead.

I'm sure in his mind he believes he is the ultimate authority.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Rantanen signing for 12M should be the writing on the wall for Marner that, if he wants to be a Maple Leaf, it shouldn’t be for anything more than Matthews is getting.

Now if he wants to reset the market, then he doesn’t want to be a Maple Leaf. Can’t have it both ways Mitch.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I'm sure in his mind he believes he is the ultimate authority.

Personally I wouldn't give him that much credit.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Actually it's the other way around. I have posted the numbers many many times check my history.

The facts are:
Marner and Nylander both do great with Matthews. +60% GF%
Marner does just as well with Tavares +60% GF%
Nylander with Tavares is a disaster. 46% GF%

This should be very obvious to anyone who watches the games.
You should probably stop watching the puck too.

I think we all know that Nylander and Tavares don't work particularly well together, but the numbers show that Tavares has been better defensively playing with Nylander than he was before.

 

[Dekes For Days]

While it’s fair to say that goal-scoring isn’t the only factor in evaluating a player’s impact, it’s completely misguided to downplay Mikko Rantanen’s overall value. He isn’t just an elite scorer, he’s a dominant all-around force who consistently delivers in the biggest moments. Unlike Mitch Marner, Rantanen has proven he can elevate his game when it matters most, particularly in the playoffs.

Marner is a fantastic playmaker, but his postseason performances have consistently underwhelmed, especially when the pressure is highest. Meanwhile, Rantanen was a key driving force in the Colorado Avalanche’s Stanley Cup run, posting 25 points in 20 playoff games in 2022. He has repeatedly shown he can thrive in physical, high-stakes environments (something Marner has struggled with).

Beyond the stats, Rantanen’s combination of size, skill, and scoring ability makes him a more versatile offensive weapon than Marner. He’s a high-end playmaker in his own right, but he also brings elite goal-scoring ability that Marner simply doesn’t match. When you factor in their playoff performances, physicality, and ability to take over games, Rantanen has a stronger case as the more impactful, well-rounded player.

Nobody is downplaying Rantanen's overall value. Some, like you, are trying to inflate Rantanen's overall value and talk up his attributes, while downplaying Marner's overall value and attributes. Both have been strong in the playoffs. You're just ignoring everything except for one aspect of play, and ignoring the context behind that one aspect.

Marner's combination of superior offensive and defensive impacts and ability to positively impact every game situation make him not only a better, but more versatile, impactful, well-rounded player.

That's incorrect. Somebody used TSN rankings to compare the players and you countered with "but the actual hockey world values Marner more" those are not one and the same. You haven't backed up your position at all, except using a vague reference to a contract with zero context.

That's incorrect. The post I replied to stated, and I quote, "the rest of the hockey world do t agree with you". I backed up my position. They didn't.

You were the one who said actual hockey people value Marner more. You have zero evidence of this.

All the evidence we have supports this, and I see no reason to believe that GMs would think otherwise, against all evidence. Though quite frankly, I don't care. It's hilarious how much you and a couple others have latched onto a nothing comment. What you believe other people believe doesn't change the facts.

You have decided that “actual hockey people” use a made up “primary points” category which is not cited by anyone, is not a recognized metric by the NHL and isn’t on basic hockey sites. You also have moved the goal posts to include points and primary points.

All the components of primary points are directly on NHL.com, and I have always discussed points and primary points. I haven't decided anything on my own. That is what you're doing. My position is entirely based on what contract history aligns with.

Goals are weighted more than your completely made up and irrelevant primary points stat.

Goals are not weighted higher than points or primary points, and nothing is made up or irrelevant about these stats.

 

[ITM]

Since the end of last year's playoffs: I'm waiting for July 1 2025 and I'm not bothered by our outcome this year or by Marner's departure.

I am so over the drama. Sign. Don't sign. Don't care.

But I will say, if the rumours are verified, it's repulsive if true. Not to give in an inch on negotiations and look for more - in this of all markets for all the reasons listed - is repulsive and would rather that influence and its surrounding support, jettisoned from our club.

 

[leafs in five]

it sounds like you actually do care

 

[Legion34]

Nobody is downplaying Rantanen's overall value. Some, like you, are trying to inflate Rantanen's overall value and talk up his attributes, while downplaying Marner's overall value and attributes. Both have been strong in the playoffs. You're just ignoring everything except for one aspect of play, and ignoring the context behind that one aspect.

Marner's combination of superior offensive and defensive impacts and ability to positively impact every game situation make him not only a better, but more versatile, impactful, well-rounded player.

That's incorrect. The post I replied to stated, and I quote, "the rest of the hockey world do t agree with you". I backed up my position. They didn't.

All the evidence we have supports this, and I see no reason to believe that GMs would think otherwise, against all evidence. Though quite frankly, I don't care. It's hilarious how much you and a couple others have latched onto a nothing comment. What you believe other people believe doesn't change the facts.

All the components of primary points are directly on NHL.com, and I have always discussed points and primary points. I haven't decided anything on my own. That is what you're doing. My position is entirely based on what contract history aligns with.

Goals are not weighted higher than points or primary points, and nothing is made up or irrelevant about these stats.

1.) If it’s a “nothing comment” just admit you don’t have any evidence that even one person values Marner more than rantanen in the “hockey world”.

You repeatedly double down on being wrong. It’s impressive. Just retract the simple wrong statement.

“I don’t know why you are making such a big deal about this” when you continue to support a completely unsubstantiated claim is ridiculous.

2.) again. You can’t conflate points and primary points. They are seperate categories. Absolutely, having more points and less goals, depending on the difference can be important.

Ie. 30 goals and 10 assists is not the same as 20 goals and 80 assists.
That’s comparing a 40 pt player to a 100 pt player.

That’s not the argument. Rantanen and Marner have very similar points, but Marner has was less goals, which are worth less

An 80 goal 20 assist player is worth more than a 20 goal 80 assist player. No matter how many “primary” or secondary assists. There is only one primary stat. Goals. The puck goes in the net. That’s it

3.) “All the COMPONENTS of primary points” means that primary points (goal + primary assists) NOT listed on the NHL website because it’s not a stat that is used and recognized.

They show points and goals. Screenshot the leaderboard of primary points. It has to be there right if that’s what people use to determine millions of dollars in contracts.

where is “all time primary points” and most primary points in a season listed in the HHOF records?

What’s the name of the award?

 

[666]

Do you mean like this ??

Wonder who that #16 defensively was suppose to cover as Pastrnak skates by him on this series winning goal?

Oh Mess. This is exactly what I'm talking about. The haters choose a sample size of one to "prove" a point (btw that's one is on Rielly but critical thinking isn't strong around here). You guys are still whining about the over the boards in the Habs series. Everyone who touches the puck as often as Marner is going to make the occasional bad play you need to pay more attention the good plays.

Here's what you should do. Stop watching the puck. Don't focus on just goals or points. Watch what Marner does away from the puck in the offensive and DEFENSIVE zones vs what Nylander does and you will understand. Once you learn how to watch you'll be able to appreciate the little things that add up quickly in preventing goals against and giving our guys excellent scoring chances whether they score or not. Marner has incredible stats but try to watch the things that aren't measured.

You might be too old to change your ways, but if you practice watching properly you'll appreciate the game more.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I'm content letting this guy walk. Use that money + the savings on Tavares new contract (7m) to sign Chychrun (8m) and Nelson (8m).

Dump Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Benoit.
Try to find a taker for OEL or Rielly
Sign Tanev (3m) and Dowd (3.5m).

Total money out: 10.9m + 4m + 2.4m + 2.1m + 1.35m = 20.75m
Total money in: 8m + 8m + 3m + 3.5m = 22.5m

Knies-Matthews-Domi
Tavares-Nelson-Nylander
McMann-Laughton-Tanev
Lorentz-Dowd-Steeves

Chychrun-Tanev
McCabe-Carlo
Rielly-Myers

Stolarz
Woll

 

[Craig Button]

He is elite in the same sense Morgan is and always has been. 1 dimensionally and circumstantially. Just like Cooper critiqued at 4 Nations.

What?

 

[Dekes For Days]

If it’s a “nothing comment” just admit you don’t have any evidence that even one person values Marner more than rantanen in the “hockey world”.

There is evidence, and we will soon have more. If you don't think it's enough, you're free to wait for more, or just ignore the nothing comment (that more than just I made). What people think other people think doesn't actually matter.

Rantanen and Marner have very similar points, but Marner has was less goals

Marner is a better point and primary point producer. He has less goals because he's a playmaker instead of a goalscorer.

“All the COMPONENTS of primary points” means that primary points (goal + primary assists) NOT listed on the NHL website because it’s not a stat that is used and recognized.

Primary points are just a common way to refer to goals and primary assists, which both appear on NHL.com.