Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Zybalto]

Lol easily the mvp against Tampa? Advanced stats begs to differ. heres a great article indicating just how bad Marner was in the playoffs.

In fact advanced stats indicate he was playing like a chicken:

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.

Marner shot distanced was 10 feet further than season. The most among the top 4 by a long shot.

View attachment 749089

It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes.

Marner had the worst slot shot%, again dropping substantially compared to the rest of the big 4.
View attachment 749090


Everyone saying Marner is a playmaker and shouldn't be judged on his goals... Well here's a great playoff stat on his magical playmaker abilities while a 11.6 million dollar hart, Lindsey and two time rocket Richard winger is playing on his line.

With that, I think it’s a fair criticism of the coach that the team went down with Matthews and Marner tied together to the very end, despite the fact that there was only a primary assist between the two just twice in the playoffs, at all strengths.


Lol best Leaf player vs Tampa!

Marner's first round 5v5 rankings last year among all 75 forwards playoff wide with at least 80 5v5 minutes played:

xGA%: 6th out of 75
Goal For/60: 2nd out of 75
Goal Against/60: 1st out of 75
5v5 goal differential: 1st out of 75
Points: T- 5th out of 75
Points/60: 6th out of 75

All situations points: T - 2nd
All situations points/60: 6th


It's not a question of whether or not Marner was the best player against Tampa, its a question of whether or not he was the best forward on any team in the first round.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner's first round 5v5 rankings last year among all 75 forwards playoff wide with at least 80 5v5 minutes played:

xGA%: 6th out of 75
Goal For/60: 2nd out of 75
Goal Against/60: 1st out of 75
5v5 goal differential: 1st out of 75
Points: T- 5th out of 75
Points/60: 6th out of 75

All situations points: T - 2nd
All situations points/60: 6th


It's not a question of whether or not Marner was the best player against Tampa, its a question of whether or not he was the best forward on any team in the first round.

Why focus on just the first round? And if you look at the later games, it's not as pretty.

He got 6 points in the first two games, four more in the next two, and only four in the last seven.

 

[Zybalto]

Why focus on just the first round? And if you look at the later games, it's not as pretty.

He got 6 points in the first two games, four more in the next two, and only four in the last seven.

Responding to a post that both starts and ends referencing only the first round and was responding to a post I made about the first round, I thought it best to point out just how dominant he was in the first round.

It was literally the topic of conversation.

The fact anyone tries to skew or slip in other data has nothing to do with the fact he was the best player of the series.

He just was and it would be good if his detractors can at least admit it.

We can then talk about his struggles against the Panthers and other things but the cult like anti-Marner hatred going on is just too much for some to admit the obvious.

If I were to tell you Marner was going to finish the first round top 3 in points, would shut down Tampas top players and finish with the best 5v5 goal differential of any big minute player in the league in the first round but people would say he played bad, you would think me crazy but here we are.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Responding to a post that both starts and ends referencing only the first round and was responding to a post I made about the first round, I thought it best to point out just how dominant he was in the first round.

It was literally the topic of conversation.

The fact anyone tries to skew or slip in other data has nothing to do with the fact he was the best player of the series.

He just was and it would be good if his detractors can at least admit it.

We can then talk about his struggles against the Panthers and other things but the cult like anti-Marner hatred going on is just too much for some to admit the obvious.

If I were to tell you Marner was going to finish the first round top 3 in points, would shut down Tampas top players and finish with the best 5v5 goal differential of any big minute player in the league in the first round but people would say he played bad, you would think me crazy but here we are.

The only stat i care about is number of cups won

 

[Gilmour1996]

...the cult like anti-Marner hatred going on is just too much for some to admit the obvious.

There are many possible reasons why fans don't like a particular player.

 

[Sypher04]

The only stat i care about is number of cups won

I guess there’s no need for you to watch them until/unless the Leafs get to a cup clinching game then. Everything else is just meaningless right?

See you in mid June maybe…

 

[ACC1224]

There are many possible reasons why fans don't like a particular player.

Yep, usually a poor understanding of the game.

 

[diceman934]

I see people here hating on our best player I'm both the regular season and playoffs.

Marner is a fantastic player who this year will challenge for the league MVP and the best defensive player.

 

[Gabriel426]

Logging on every once in a while to see if this tire fire is still going.

Again,

Looking at the 55 forwards who have played at least 400 5v5 minutes over the last 3 playoffs, here are the top 5 standouts with the best numbers in the most important categories relative their teammates:

REL rankings:

Shot Differential:
1. Tkatchuk
2. Matthews
3. Bennet
4. Verhaeghe
5. Marner

High Danger Chance Differential:
1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Tkatchuk
4. McDavid
5. Verhaeghe

Expected Goal Differential:
1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Tkatchuk
4. McDavid
5. Verhaeghe

Goal Differential:
1. Marner (+23.46%!!!)
2. McDavid
3. MacKinnon
4. Danault
5. Verhaeghe


If terms of pure production, Marner leads all Leafs players in PPG with 26 points in 25 games but the real reason he is at the top of these lists is because of his insane two-way play as one of the better defensive players in the playoffs. If only the rest of the team brought the insane two-way game Marner has brought. It's easy to try and blame the top players on a team but it would be nice if guys like Kerfoot, Engvall, Mikheyev, O'Reilly, Jarnkrok and Hyman could provide more than the 3 combined 5v5 goals they provided over the last 3 years in their 1000+ minutes out there (Marner outscored all of them with 4 goals in 400 minutes). Those arnt bad players, they just couldnt get it done. Glorious chances galore that they flubbed on.

Going after a two way playmaker like Marner for his goal scoring is also strange considering the numbers the great Kucherov has put up (5 goals in 770+ 5v5 minutes in the last 3 years). Nice to be a winner with your depth players stepping up and arguably the greatest clutch playoff goalie of all time eh?

So..... 2/3 of the board wants to trade the guy whose last 3 years are him winning 2x RW of the year + a Selke nom who also leads his team in points per game in the playoffs while having the best 5v5 REL goal differential in the playoffs?.....all while being a lockdown PK machine?

I'm hoping the new additions to the Leafs will be able to buck the trend of our support players getting dominated by the other teams support players. It would be so much easier to blame coaching too but its always the others teams bottom six sticking it to ours, not getting caught out against the other team's big boys. Maybe one of the reasons it was Dubas let go instead of other options.

Campbell and Samsonov haven't really stacked up too well against Price, Vasy and Bob in big games either and its somewhat related to the problem.

In the big picture, I dont think we have a series win or even close series without Marner. He was easily the MVP of the series win against the Bolts.....yea, let’s take that guy off our team.......

Don’t think anyone should deny MM isn’t a great player.
In terms of playoffs, he did disappeared against the Panthers. I mean ONE goal between AM, JT and him in 5 games is not acceptable. Imagine the Leafs made to the Finals and lost bc MM, AM and JT combined for ONE goal.
Hopefully the boys learned and improved this playoffs.

 

[ICBM]

Leafs can't afford two unmotivated players on first line. Either Marner or Mathews has to be traded. Too many lovers and too few fighters. Mathews is a center and he stays. There is no way around trading Marner.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Responding to a post that both starts and ends referencing only the first round and was responding to a post I made about the first round, I thought it best to point out just how dominant he was in the first round.

It was literally the topic of conversation.

The fact anyone tries to skew or slip in other data has nothing to do with the fact he was the best player of the series.

He just was and it would be good if his detractors can at least admit it.

We can then talk about his struggles against the Panthers and other things but the cult like anti-Marner hatred going on is just too much for some to admit the obvious.

If I were to tell you Marner was going to finish the first round top 3 in points, would shut down Tampas top players and finish with the best 5v5 goal differential of any big minute player in the league in the first round but people would say he played bad, you would think me crazy but here we are.

I think you're crazy anyway, but that's a separate issue. (Just kidding.)

That makes sense - he was very good in the first few games.

 

[Gilmour1996]

Yep, usually a poor understanding of the game.

Understand these other possible reasons: FYI: This is a Marner thread but I said "a particular player", not specifically Marner.

Some reasons why a hockey fan may not like a player::

-plays for a rival team
-may not like salary team is paying
-may prefer Canadian or USA or Swedish, etc. born players
-may not like the look of the player (ie. hair, apparel, etc.)
-may not like a player's strengths or weaknesses
-peer pressure
-player's public image
-may not like the way he plays against your team (Dave Schultz anyone?)
-may not like his agent, his dad, his old junior team, etc.
-may not like player's favourite NFL team
-may not like a particular player's taste in music, food, etc.

....and hundreds more.

 

[capfit9]

I see Dreger didn't like Marner on the TSN Top 50 on the panel yesterday, thought he was too low at 14, the negotiations have already started via Marner's number one media mouthpiece.

 

[Zybalto]

I think you're crazy anyway, but that's a separate issue. (Just kidding.)

That makes sense - he was very good in the first few games.

Might be some recency bias of course as the last memory of Marner we have is of him struggling those last couple of games but it's not like anyone else stepped up either right?

Even McDavid has had bad series and has suffered from not enough support.

I do like the fact Bertuzzi was almost the only Bruin to play 100% of their first round loss and seems a real heart and soul guy that will bolster them this year. Are he, Domi and the others finally the guys that can fill a big role for the team as solid playoff support?

A huge year for all the big names to take a further step for sure.

Fun thing to ponder.

The last 3 playoffs 5v5, Matthews and Marner have been on the ice together for 16 goals for in 330 minutes.

In the 100+ minutes Matthews has played away from Marner, the team has scored 0 goals.

I don't think they should be broken up in the playoffs.....ever.

.....

 

[notDatsyuk]

Might be some recency bias of course as the last memory of Marner we have is of him struggling those last couple of games but it's not like anyone else stepped up either right?

Even McDavid has had bad series and has suffered from not enough support.

I do like the fact Bertuzzi was almost the only Bruin to play 100% of their first round loss and seems a real heart and soul guy that will bolster them this year. Are he, Domi and the others finally the guys that can fill a big role for the team as solid playoff support?

A huge year for all the big names to take a further step for sure.

Fun thing to ponder.

The last 3 playoffs 5v5, Matthews and Marner have been on the ice together for 16 goals for in 330 minutes.

In the 100+ minutes Matthews has played away from Marner, the team has scored 0 goals.

I don't think they should be broken up in the playoffs.....ever.

.....

I agree - I like them together almost as much as I dislike JT and Willy together.

 

[Zybalto]

I agree - I like them together almost as much as I dislike JT and Willy together.

We can agree here too.

Tavares and Nylander would be better driving their own lines at this point and we finally have the top 9 support to do it.

 

[Gabriel426]

We can agree here too.

Tavares and Nylander would be better driving their own lines at this point and we finally have the top 9 support to do it.

I won’t put Willie and AM together either. As Willie will do his own stuff instead of playing off AM and vice versa.
People only want MM and JT together bc that will help JT stats but I think it is time to just let JT be a sheltered 3C plus PP specialist.
With AM and MM, as long as those those don’t be lazy and wait for the other to do stuff-by that I mean there were a lot of times where AM is just waiting for MM to pass to him and MM didn’t even think about shooting, they are great.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Might be some recency bias of course as the last memory of Marner we have is of him struggling those last couple of games but it's not like anyone else stepped up either right?

Even McDavid has had bad series and has suffered from not enough support.

I do like the fact Bertuzzi was almost the only Bruin to play 100% of their first round loss and seems a real heart and soul guy that will bolster them this year. Are he, Domi and the others finally the guys that can fill a big role for the team as solid playoff support?

A huge year for all the big names to take a further step for sure.

Fun thing to ponder.

The last 3 playoffs 5v5, Matthews and Marner have been on the ice together for 16 goals for in 330 minutes.

In the 100+ minutes Matthews has played away from Marner, the team has scored 0 goals.

I don't think they should be broken up in the playoffs.....ever.

.....

It's not like anyone played as badly as Marner did in game 3 either. In fact I don't remember ever seeing a star player play as badly in an important game as Marner did in game 3, he looked like a scared 18 year old playing his first game in the NHL and completely choking under the spotlight.

 

[Stephen]

Traditionally, the issue with Marner is he plays well below his average in the close out moments of a playoffs series as if overwhelmed by the moment and physically intimidated. As the theory goes you surround him with enough of the right veteran mentorship a la Thornton, Foligno, O'Reilly, etc. enough snot a la Bertuzzi, Domi, give him time, dilute the mix with the next crop of rookies like Minten and Knies, maybe things change...

 

[Gary Nylund]

Traditionally, the issue with Marner is he plays well below his average in the close out moments of a playoffs series as if overwhelmed by the moment and physically intimidated. As the theory goes you surround him with enough of the right veteran mentorship a la Thornton, Foligno, O'Reilly, etc. enough snot a la Bertuzzi, Domi, give him time, dilute the mix with the next crop of rookies like Minten and Knies, maybe things change...

Maybe had we kept Martin things would be different who knows, he was like a big brother to Marner and he sure looks like he needs a big brother type to make him feel secure. It's pretty ridiculous though that we're paying someone 11 million dollars a year and at the same time, trying to figure out how to get him to not play smaller as the games get bigger. For that kind of money, you'd expect an elite level of play no matter what the surrounding circumstances are.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Maybe had we kept Martin things would be different who knows, he was like a big brother to Marner and he sure looks like he needs a big brother type to make him feel secure. It's pretty ridiculous though that we're paying someone 11 million dollars a year and at the same time, trying to figure out how to get him to not play smaller as the games get bigger. For that kind of money, you'd expect an elite level of play no matter what the surrounding circumstances are.

Check out Aho's contract

 

[Stephen]

Maybe had we kept Martin things would be different who knows, he was like a big brother to Marner and he sure looks like he needs a big brother type to make him feel secure. It's pretty ridiculous though that we're paying someone 11 million dollars a year and at the same time, trying to figure out how to get him to not play smaller as the games get bigger. For that kind of money, you'd expect an elite level of play no matter what the surrounding circumstances are.

Hopefully the next time the big moments in the playoffs come Marner just realizes he's a 27 year old veteran in this game, established superstar and there are no bullies and he's not a kid either.

 

[authentic]

Responding to a post that both starts and ends referencing only the first round and was responding to a post I made about the first round, I thought it best to point out just how dominant he was in the first round.

It was literally the topic of conversation.

The fact anyone tries to skew or slip in other data has nothing to do with the fact he was the best player of the series.

He just was and it would be good if his detractors can at least admit it.

We can then talk about his struggles against the Panthers and other things but the cult like anti-Marner hatred going on is just too much for some to admit the obvious.

If I were to tell you Marner was going to finish the first round top 3 in points, would shut down Tampas top players and finish with the best 5v5 goal differential of any big minute player in the league in the first round but people would say he played bad, you would think me crazy but here we are.

Marner was the best player in the first 2 games against Tampa. After that it was Matthews

 

[Gabriel426]

Hopefully the next time the big moments in the playoffs come Marner just realizes he's a 27 year old veteran in this game, established superstar and there are no bullies and he's not a kid either.

That’s spot on. He is 27 yrs old now. Got an A on the jersey. 8-9th highest paid player in the league. One of the best playmaker and PKer in the league. He is no longer a kid. Heck he is also not just another good player in the league. He is an elite player in the league and elite players are expected to lead their team.

Hopefully he figures that out and lead the Leafs in the playoffs like he is capable

 

[Squiffy]

Marner is silly good. And I don't see how you move off that, unless you are getting a true perennial Norris candidate. And nobody trades that really.

He needs to take the discount, as a home town boy, and it's not even really a discount, just back to proper market value. If AM is $13+, and he is, MM is $12 tops, less though please.

Wait and replace the JT contract with #1 stud D. In the mean time, triple dog dare MM to walk over $1m annual over 8y.