Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[leafs in five]

I hate that pass back inside the zone the shift after giving up a goal but it's not like Matthews didn't have space to make an ok play with the puck given that was able to try a rainbow flick. maybe the silliness of Marner's decision was contagious

 

[ACC1224]

I hate that pass back inside the zone the shift after giving up a goal but it's not like Matthews didn't have space to make an ok play with the puck given that was able to try a rainbow flick. maybe the silliness of Marner's decision was contagious

Yeah no question there is some shared blame on that one.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Both players deserve equal blame on that goal.
Once Marner recieves the pass from McCabe, He easily has time and space to skate it up the left side and out of the zone or at least flip it out if pressure by Ekblad.
Like you said he tries an unnecessary drop pass to Matthews and Matthews attempts to showtime and flip it past Luostarinen.
The entire sequence was just way too casual and high risk for the situation where it's 2-2 in your own zone, in a game you neeeded to win.

That play nicely symbolizes what this team is - nice regular season stats, but they just don't understand how to play playoff hockey. Some people say they will maybe figure it out one day but I'm wondering how many more tens of millions they need to make before we can expect that to happen and most importantly, do they even care?

 

[TMLAM34]

Damn, I’m surprised almost 70% voted to trade Marner. IMO you do whatever you need to do to build around Matthews and Marner. At the moment JT’s contract is the crippling one but once that’s off the books, the cap situation looks a lot better especially with the salary cap suppose to be rising a considerable amount.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Damn, I’m surprised almost 70% voted to trade Marner. IMO you do whatever you need to do to build around Matthews and Marner. At the moment JT’s contract is the crippling one but once that’s off the books, the cap situation looks a lot better especially with the salary cap suppose to be rising a considerable amount.

Every team has some bad contracts, we've been in a much better position than most teams in this regard. JT's played well for us and he hasn't even been overpaid by that much so there's really no excuses for our playoff failures, none whatsoever so it's understandable that people are fed up. It's not hard to picture this team say 4 years from now with 4 more playoff failures behind them, M&M past their primes but making 28 million or WE between them and many years left on their untradeable contracts meaning the next decade or so is a writeoff and with that in mind, going in another direction isn't a ridiculous idea.

For me personally, everyone is tradeable, it all depends on the return. But we can't trade Marner at this point so doesn't matter anyway.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I've never said the later games were less important , it certainly gets more crucial when it is an elimination game no matter what game number it is but you still have to get to that point and in the playoffs as you well know every game counts . This all started in response to a reply to post I made pointing out that Marner is actually the most productive of the big 4 forwards in the playoffs so far , this led to the typical advanced stat cherry picking by some to avoid the overall picture that doesn't coincide with their personal agendas .

Typically here, there are two slightly different discussions going on.

1 - Marner produces in the playoffs. Yes, as his point totals overall show.

2 - Marner's production drops off faster than most as the games get tougher. Also true, as his point totals in the tougher games show.

One poster is discussing point 1 and another is discussing point 2, and it devolves into an argument about what stats are relevant. The correct answer is "one or the other, depending on which point you're discussing"

 

[leafs in five]

a poll about trading Larry Murphy would have probably returned a similar split

 

[Racer88]

Typically here, there are two slightly different discussions going on.

1 - Marner produces in the playoffs. Yes, as his point totals overall show.

2 - Marner's production drops off faster than most as the games get tougher. Also true, as his point totals in the tougher games show.

One poster is discussing point 1 and another is discussing point 2, and it devolves into an argument about what stats are relevant. The correct answer is "one or the other, depending on which point you're discussing"

The important stat is the one that contributes to success in the playoffs…………..oh wait, never mind

 

[thewave]

a poll about trading Larry Murphy would have probably returned a similar split

I don't think the people that want to trade him want to trade him for peanuts. The issue here is that we need a more complete team and he is the kind of guy that can make that happen. My other concern with him is his acceleration, I could see him being 28 years old and way less effective with a steep decline like JT.

Marner is slow.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think the people that want to trade him want to trade him for peanuts. The issue here is that we need a more complete team and he is the kind of guy that can make that happen. My other concern with him is his acceleration, I could see him being 28 years old and way less effective with a steep decline like JT.

Marner is slow.

My main concern is that he'll be 28 when his next contract kicks in which is roughly the age where NHL players begin their decline. The Dekes crowd will no doubt be trying to justify a zillion dollar contract for Money Mitch based on all kinds of fancy stats, without acknowledging that those numbers will be fading in the rear view mirror as he starts playing on his next deal.

 

[thewave]

My main concern is that he'll be 28 when his next contract kicks in which is roughly the age where NHL players begin their decline. The Dekes crowd will no doubt be trying to justify a zillion dollar contract for Money Mitch based on all kinds of fancy stats, without acknowledging that those numbers will be fading in the rear view mirror as he starts playing on his next deal.

Big concern of mine as well. If he had Nylanders speed I wouldn't care about it too much but he is legit slow to get up to speed and I have seen it a million times before where they hit that 28-30 and fill out and whatever jump they had is gone. You end up with a very slow playmaker that doesn't get what you need. There are like 5 or 6 on the tip of my tongue but escapes me.

 

[Antropovsky]

Damn, I’m surprised almost 70% voted to trade Marner. IMO you do whatever you need to do to build around Matthews and Marner. At the moment JT’s contract is the crippling one but once that’s off the books, the cap situation looks a lot better especially with the salary cap suppose to be rising a considerable amount.

Tavares was fine in the playoffs:

Sportsnet article on Tavares playoffs:

And second, in terms of successful (as in, they landed on net) shots taken from the inner slot in the playoffs, John Tavares had twice as many as the next best Leafs player with 20 in just 11 games. That he only had four playoff goals is crazy; he’s the only guy who can really make a claim to have gotten “unlucky” with his post-season output (his secondary assists also dried up, which is partially bad luck).

Discussion on Marner:

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent. Michael Bunting, another important forward for them, saw his percentage drop from 63.5 per cent (second best in regular season) to 57.1 per cent.

It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes

Matthews looked off at times this season compared to the previous year’s standard. And it wasn’t just his inner slot shot pace, or primary assists that dropped in the playoffs, it was his shots per 60 in general. With that, I think it’s a fair criticism of the coach that the team went down with Matthews and Marner tied together to the very end, despite the fact that there was only a primary assist between the two just twice in the playoffs, at all strengths.

 

[IPS]

Tavares was fine in the playoffs:

Sportsnet article on Tavares playoffs:

And second, in terms of successful (as in, they landed on net) shots taken from the inner slot in the playoffs, John Tavares had twice as many as the next best Leafs player with 20 in just 11 games. That he only had four playoff goals is crazy; he’s the only guy who can really make a claim to have gotten “unlucky” with his post-season output (his secondary assists also dried up, which is partially bad luck).

Discussion on Marner:

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent. Michael Bunting, another important forward for them, saw his percentage drop from 63.5 per cent (second best in regular season) to 57.1 per cent.

It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes

Matthews looked off at times this season compared to the previous year’s standard. And it wasn’t just his inner slot shot pace, or primary assists that dropped in the playoffs, it was his shots per 60 in general. With that, I think it’s a fair criticism of the coach that the team went down with Matthews and Marner tied together to the very end, despite the fact that there was only a primary assist between the two just twice in the playoffs, at all strengths.

Of the big 4, I found Tavares to be the worst by far. Disagree with this entirely.

 

[ZEBROA]

Marner need to take a deep talk with his dad. I think his upbringing causes him to get mental blockages. He should force his dad out on the ice in pjs and no protection. Scream at him for skating to slow and taking bad shots at net. That is not the words Mitch needs in his head in the playoffs.
I just hate these parents in kids hockey. They think they make the kids tougher. Look at tough Mitch. Some would say that Mitch would not be were he was if not for his dad. Maby not, or maby he would be a Stanley cup champion.

You should lift kids up in hard times so they dont quit. Teach them to stand up for themself. Teach them to not give up. But without the sceaming. Because nothing is better then a selfmotivated kid in sports.

Mitch is mentaly week , why i dont know, but he should deal with that part and he will be unstoppable.

 

[al secord]

a poll about trading Larry Murphy would have probably returned a similar split

We've always had a moronic vocal minority.

 

[thewave]

Tavares was fine in the playoffs:

Sportsnet article on Tavares playoffs:

And second, in terms of successful (as in, they landed on net) shots taken from the inner slot in the playoffs, John Tavares had twice as many as the next best Leafs player with 20 in just 11 games. That he only had four playoff goals is crazy; he’s the only guy who can really make a claim to have gotten “unlucky” with his post-season output (his secondary assists also dried up, which is partially bad luck).

Discussion on Marner:

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent. Michael Bunting, another important forward for them, saw his percentage drop from 63.5 per cent (second best in regular season) to 57.1 per cent.

It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes

Matthews looked off at times this season compared to the previous year’s standard. And it wasn’t just his inner slot shot pace, or primary assists that dropped in the playoffs, it was his shots per 60 in general. With that, I think it’s a fair criticism of the coach that the team went down with Matthews and Marner tied together to the very end, despite the fact that there was only a primary assist between the two just twice in the playoffs, at all strengths.

Marner went full shambles v FL. You never go full shambles in the playoffs

 

[notDatsyuk]

Of the big 4, I found Tavares to be the worst by far. Disagree with this entirely.

It's a very limited stat, and really the only one in the article that seems positive for him. Yes, he got a lot of whacks at the puck when standing in the slot during PPs, but I didn't see much else positive from him.

Somewhat surprisingly (it was left out of the quote) the player with the second most slot shots on target wasn't another center, but Nylander.

 

[Antropovsky]

From Sportsnet:

Apparently in 2022 Dom Luszczsyzyn wrote an article about how small skill guys summer the largest declines int he postseason and his research includes Marner:



Just under a year ago Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic evaluated the idea of “heavy hockey” and if there’s anything to its perceived value in playoffs, in which he found that the smallest skill guys had in fact suffered the largest decline in output in the post-season. The statistical examples used were Johnny Gaudreau, Mitch Marner, Nik Ehlers, and others who suddenly stopped being able to create as much with either pure deception or raw skill.

Anyone have access to The Athletic and can give a summary?

Examining the heavy hockey trend and whether it's the only path to a Stanley Cup

An in-depth look at how player playoff performance changes based on their relative size and physicality.

theathletic.com

@Dekes For Days are these 2022 and 2023 articles from The Athletic and Sportsnet from too long ago as well?

 

[ACC1224]

Mitch Marner (F) (26)– Often the scapegoat when Toronto struggles, Marner rarely gets enough credit for his elite offensive contributions. Over the past five years, he's amassed 424 points in 348 games, which places him fifth in league scoring during that span. Given how he's been treated by the tough market in Toronto, it's plausible he seeks a change of scenery when his current deal expires in two years. Although he doesn't have the lengthy contract term you typically want to see from a 'core player', term doesn't really define Toronto's core right now. The Leafs currently have just four players on contract past the 24-25 campaign (when Marner's deal expires): David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Reaves and Morgan Rielly. With the exception of Rielly, those guys have done enough to be considered part of the team's core.

Looking forward to another huge season.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Looking forward to another huge regular season.

Fify

 

[Arzak]

My main concern is that he'll be 28 when his next contract kicks in which is roughly the age where NHL players begin their decline. The Dekes crowd will no doubt be trying to justify a zillion dollar contract for Money Mitch based on all kinds of fancy stats, without acknowledging that those numbers will be fading in the rear view mirror as he starts playing on his next deal.

Thank you

edit: can we rename the thread?

 

[Canadian Finn]

We've always had a moronic vocal minority.

70% is not a minority.

 

[ACC1224]

We've always had a moronic vocal minority.

No doubt, the redundancy makes it seems like so many more.
Conservative estimates would put at least half the votes (likely way more) to move him are from fans of other teams.

Anyway thread should be closed down, he’s going no where, career Leaf, next stop Legends Row.

 

[Captain Crunch]

If the team you trade Willie to extends him, it should be cheaper than what we sign him for to boot.

Given 34 and 88 haven't signed yet, I would have traded all 3.

I totally agree with you concerning this “core”. Unfortunately, thanks to Dubas and Shanahan, Chicago now owns our ‘25 1st round pick (top 10 protected) or our unprotected ‘26 1st round pick, so we would really be in bad shape if we were to trade all three (which I would also do if we could). Aren’t we so fortunate to have Shanahan at the helm! smh

 

[Captain Crunch]

Can someone please show matthews and nylander and jt
Playoff numbers from games 1-7 like Mitch so we can see how great the other three are

I can go all the way back for Matthews, but here’s his playoff stats for games 1-7 since 2021:
Game 1’s (4 gms) - 2g 4a
Game 2’s (4gms) - 1g 7a
Game 3’s (4gms) - 1g 0a
Game 4’s (4gms) - 2g 1a
Game 5’s (4 gms) - 2g 1a
Game 6’s (3 gms) - 2g 0a
Game 7’s (3 gms) - 0g 2a