Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Fogelhund]

He is basically Semin. He will slap someone sooner or later but until that happens we just have to suffer skip the dishes ads.

I would really like to see what his points totals would be without AM who is actually a prolific goal scorer in the Ovechkin tier.

There used to be a site that would show points by linemate. All I can seem to find now, is Goals scored on the ice, with and without a linemate.

With Matthews and Marner together, 33 goals were scored 5v5. Marner without Matthews, 31 goals were scored 5v5 last year.

So.... it doesn't really seem like his points totals were because of AM last year.

 

[hamzarocks]

All he was bad... And it's been very well documented by sports analysts. Even Barry Trotz touched on it (doesn't call him out by name) but included him in the core that he said had made improvements towards being winners.

All Marners shots were 45-60 feet out and his slot shot% was 10% worse than his next teammate. It was reported on twitter and not intended to be a compliment.

Watch his points and you'll see he isn't the line driver. His teammates are. Morgan Reilly, Matthews, Nylander, Oreilly... When he is visible with the puck it was when the goalie was pulled or on the man advantage. Otherwise he was a black hole.

He had two specific 5vs5 primary assists. On both of them Matthew or Nylander made sensational plays to draw multiple defenders and return the pass to Marner who was wide open to make the simple pass to the goal scorer.

Marner scored a few foals, all from 50-60 feet out, in statistically the worst area to score a goal. Sure.. He scored (thanks to excellent work in front by his linemates primarily) but as noted earlier your not winning a lot of big games when your 11 million dollar player is shooting entirely from the worst statistical goal scoring area on the ice and is 10% worse than ALL his linemates at getting shots from the best statistical area on the ice to score.

Moreover...vs Florida in game 2 he had turned over the puck leading to the game winning goal. In game three, he was the worst player on the ice. When the team was up 2-0 he turned the puck over 3 times in the first period alone, lead to the only chances Florida had against. In a game when your up 2-0, your best player shouldn't commit any offensive zone turnovers... Let alone 3 in one period.

In the last few years he's also turned over the puck leading to at least 5 critical goals against vs Tampa and Montreal.

He's been terrible and it's not even hard to prove.

Marner didnt turn it over in game 2 goal 3 that was Matthews

Your underrating Marner pretty heavily as production is what matters the most and marner was productive this year in the playoffs

Though it is in response to guys like dekes, not bias etc who overrate the crap out of him

The main boards had him in the 4th-8th best winger in the league convo

Kuch, pasta, and Tkachuk ahead of this year

They are very biased usually so him being in that tier with Rants (9.2M), Kaprizov (9.5M) and Robertson (7.5M i think though his was a shorter deal pre full breakout) shows he is a game breaking winger but he should be at 9-9.5M rather than 11M

He was overpaid but he has also been probably the best winger we've had in a long time.

Problem is hes like the 5th best winger in the league and 15th-20th best player but we pay him like hes the bonafide best winger and 5th best player in the league

 

[notDatsyuk]

Ok nylander is the one who didn’t get everything he wanted right?
Let’s look at it
Wanted 8 supposedly got 6.9 which was in some cases more than his comparables
Held out for three months and got all his money back that he lost for choosing to sit out. He actually made 10.2 million that year for sitting out. He came into the team in terrible shape and managed 27 points for 10.2 million.

I think he got quite a lot considering he left the team by sitting out. He should have been traded then to send a message. Too late now

He got less than he asked for, and had to hold out to get even that, while Matthews and Marner got what they wanted when then wanted. he got a modified NMC, they both got full ones.

And he didn't make $10.2M that year - he actually made $6.9M.

 

[ToneDog]

He got less than he asked for, and had to hold out to get even that, while Matthews and Marner got what they wanted when then wanted. he got a modified NMC, they both got full ones.

And he didn't make $10.2M that year - he actually made $6.9M.

The contract has a cap hit of $6,962,366.

He was actually paid $12m.

Not bad for sitting out two months, and coming in out of shape and having his worst season. Luckily he picked it up since that first year.

 

[Fogelhund]

He is basically Semin. He will slap someone sooner or later but until that happens we just have to suffer skip the dishes ads.

I would really like to see what his points totals would be without AM who is actually a prolific goal scorer in the Ovechkin tier.

Note also... Matthews scoring and scoring percentage was down quite a bit last year. If Matthews had scored at his normal rate, Marner probably ends up scoring more points with Matthews and by a margin.

You can read that both ways really. Matthews shooting % being lower, resulted in less points for Marner... so Matthews held back Marner some, as Marner still set him up a lot.

Or, Marner is dependent on Matthews...

Whatever... The reality, is they are both elite at what they do, and both score goals and assists, with and without each other. A healthy Matthews benefits Marner, and the team.

 

[ACC1224]

He got less than he asked for, and had to hold out to get even that, while Matthews and Marner got what they wanted when then wanted. he got a modified NMC, they both got full ones.

And he didn't make $10.2M that year - he actually made $6.9M.

He was easily the most difficult negotiation.

 

[notdoneyet]

He got less than he asked for, and had to hold out to get even that, while Matthews and Marner got what they wanted when then wanted. he got a modified NMC, they both got full ones.

And he didn't make $10.2M that year - he actually made $6.9M.

No he made 10.2 he was paid back all the money he lost while holding out. He is the only one who actually held out and missed games. He should be gone. I hope he is traded

 

[Arzak]

The contract has a cap hit of $6,962,366.

He was actually paid $12m.

Not bad for sitting out two months, and coming in out of shape and having his worst season. Luckily he picked it up since that first year.

It's pointless why switch from cap to $$ paid?

Nylander got significantly less in both cases. Marner and Matthews got over $30M each in signing bonuses alone in 1 year.

Again to get half of what Mitch takes he HAD to sit out. You can't play without a contract, he wasn't on strike.

He was easily the most difficult negotiation.

Rofl it was the only negotiation.

You wanna tell me Dubas negotiated with Marner and Matthews?

The result says Kyle just bend over and gave them blank checks.Not really comparable.

 

[andora]

Marner didnt turn it over in game 2 goal 3 that was Matthews

Your underrating Marner pretty heavily as production is what matters the most and marner was productive this year in the playoffs

Though it is in response to guys like dekes, not bias etc who overrate the crap out of him

The main boards had him in the 4th-8th best winger in the league convo

Kuch, pasta, and Tkachuk ahead of this year

They are very biased usually so him being in that tier with Rants (9.2M), Kaprizov (9.5M) and Robertson (7.5M i think though his was a shorter deal pre full breakout) shows he is a game breaking winger but he should be at 9-9.5M rather than 11M

He was overpaid but he has also been probably the best winger we've had in a long time.

Problem is hes like the 5th best winger in the league and 15th-20th best player but we pay him like hes the bonafide best winger and 5th best player in the league

Minor detail but that was marners f*** up all day

 

[ToneDog]

It's pointless why switch from cap to $$ paid?

Nylander got significantly less in both cases. Marner and Matthews got over $30M each in signing bonuses alone in 1 year.

Again to get half of what Mitch takes he HAD to sit out. You can't play without a contract, he wasn't on strike.



Rofl it was the only negotiation.

You wanna tell me Dubas negotiated with Marner and Matthews?

The result says Kyle just bend over and gave them blank checks.Not really comparable.

Was correcting the statement "And he didn't make $10.2M that year - he actually made $6.9M." or making it clearer.

 

[ACC1224]

It's pointless why switch from cap to $$ paid?

Nylander got significantly less in both cases. Marner and Matthews got over $30M each in signing bonuses alone in 1 year.

Again to get half of what Mitch takes he HAD to sit out. You can't play without a contract, he wasn't on strike.



Rofl it was the only negotiation.

You wanna tell me Dubas negotiated with Marner and Matthews?

The result says Kyle just bend over and gave them blank checks.Not really comparable.

That’s what I said it was the most difficult negotiation. Not sure what the rest of your rant is for. If you believe there was no other negotiations that seems pretty silly and uninformed.

 

[IPS]

Marner didnt turn it over in game 2 goal 3 that was Matthews

Your underrating Marner pretty heavily as production is what matters the most and marner was productive this year in the playoffs

Though it is in response to guys like dekes, not bias etc who overrate the crap out of him

The main boards had him in the 4th-8th best winger in the league convo

Kuch, pasta, and Tkachuk ahead of this year

They are very biased usually so him being in that tier with Rants (9.2M), Kaprizov (9.5M) and Robertson (7.5M i think though his was a shorter deal pre full breakout) shows he is a game breaking winger but he should be at 9-9.5M rather than 11M

He was overpaid but he has also been probably the best winger we've had in a long time.

Problem is hes like the 5th best winger in the league and 15th-20th best player but we pay him like hes the bonafide best winger and 5th best player in the league

Pretty balanced take here.

Marner is firmly in that group of Kaprizov, Rantanen, Tkachuk and there's people around here who act like it's some insult to not consider him 2 tiers better.

There used to be a site that would show points by linemate. All I can seem to find now, is Goals scored on the ice, with and without a linemate.

With Matthews and Marner together, 33 goals were scored 5v5. Marner without Matthews, 31 goals were scored 5v5 last year.

So.... it doesn't really seem like his points totals were because of AM last year.

Marner was easily the best Leafs player last year, both offensively and defensively (among forwards anyway).

Matthews was sort of off last year and Marner made up for it.

 

[notbias]

He is basically Semin. He will slap someone sooner or later but until that happens we just have to suffer skip the dishes ads.

I would really like to see what his points totals would be without AM who is actually a prolific goal scorer in the Ovechkin tier.

94 points or more based on him doing that before and he is better now

The contract has a cap hit of $6,962,366.

He was actually paid $12m.

Not bad for sitting out two months, and coming in out of shape and having his worst season. Luckily he picked it up since that first year.

I am pretty sure that is based on how the cap/salary works... he also didn't get the full amount.

It wasn't structured like that on purpose.

Could be wrong, but believe it is required from reading about it before.

No he made 10.2 he was paid back all the money he lost while holding out. He is the only one who actually held out and missed games. He should be gone. I hope he is traded

False.

 

[Arzak]

That’s what I said it was the most difficult negotiation. Not sure what the rest of your rant is for. If you believe there was no other negotiations that seems pretty silly and uninformed.

Never heard of hyperbole or playing stupid?

Nylander got steamrolled it's incomparable to Matthews and Marner getting everything without any resistance.

The narrative about Nylander sitting is also moronic, he was without a contract. Not sure what you're pretending here, you never worked a day in your life? Even if Nylander wanted to play while being jerked around, he could not. It would be illegal.

 

[hamzarocks]

Minor detail but that was marners f*** up all day

Hard Disagree for me

Matthews tried being way to cute and scooping the puck past I think was forsl8ng and he turned it over

Had to make a simply chip around the D protect it and absorb the contact as he gets it out.

Marner passed in a 50/50 rosky area but he isnt on fault for that goal alone was Matthews as well as he had final touch and made the poor decision

Its irrelevent now and both 34 and 16 were not good enough this playoffs.

We are giving them plus 88 and 91 shot #8 so we will see how that folds. This may be our last shot for a half a decade if 88 or 34 walk for nothing

Hoping for the best this year but dont know what to expect

 

[notDatsyuk]

The contract has a cap hit of $6,962,366.

He was actually paid $12m.

Not bad for sitting out two months, and coming in out of shape and having his worst season. Luckily he picked it up since that first year.

Yes, because it was front loaded, but the average over the term is $6.9.

But that's not what the other poster was talking about. He's referring to the AAV of $10.2, which is inaccurate. The AAV for that year was higher because part of the agreement was that he get paid for the full year. So he got his (average) $6.9 for that year, but because he didn't play all 82 games, the annualized value came up to $10.2, but that on paper only. The team didn't pay it, and he didn't get it.

He was easily the most difficult negotiation.

Absolutely - he had to fight for everything he got, which doesn't mean he got everything he wanted, which was what the other poster said.

 

[notDatsyuk]

No he made 10.2 he was paid back all the money he lost while holding out. He is the only one who actually held out and missed games. He should be gone. I hope he is traded

Yes, he had to hold out to get paid, which nobody else did, and he still got less.

But (see above), he did NOT make $10.2 that year!

 

[andora]

Hard Disagree for me

Matthews tried being way to cute and scooping the puck past I think was forsl8ng and he turned it over

Had to make a simply chip around the D protect it and absorb the contact as he gets it out.

Marner passed in a 50/50 rosky area but he isnt on fault for that goal alone was Matthews as well as he had final touch and made the poor decision

Its irrelevent now and both 34 and 16 were not good enough this playoffs.

We are giving them plus 88 and 91 shot #8 so we will see how that folds. This may be our last shot for a half a decade if 88 or 34 walk for nothing

Hoping for the best this year but dont know what to expect

Are we talking about different plays?

I am referencing where marner was a couple steps from getting out and he drop passed to matthews in the middle with two panthers within a couple feet of him

Matthews tries and chips or flips but he is so close to the panther player it hits him

 

[Menzinger]

Rofl it was the only negotiation.

You wanna tell me Dubas negotiated with Marner and Matthews?
.

Marner's agent benefited a lot by the fact that the Leafs essentially had to get a deal done by camp otherwise they couldn't accommodate the contract in terms of the cap. Which obviously won't be the same circumstances next offseason when a new extension can be signed

 

[hamzarocks]

Are we talking about different plays?

I am referencing where marner was a couple steps from getting out and he drop passed to matthews in the middle with two panthers within a couple feet of him

Matthews tries and chips or flips but he is so close to the panther player it hits him

Same play, matthews had time on that play to avois the flip/scoop.

He could have chipped around instead of trying to go over.

Its in the past now though. Marner abd matthews have to clean up those miscues abd hugh risk plays this year if we want to win

 

[ACC1224]

Absolutely - he had to fight for everything he got, which doesn't mean he got everything he wanted, which was what the other poster said.

No one here knows exactly what he asked for.
Like any negotiation, we can assume he didn’t get all he asked for. Same with the other players.

Are we talking about different plays?

I am referencing where marner was a couple steps from getting out and he drop passed to matthews in the middle with two panthers within a couple feet of him

Matthews tries and chips or flips but he is so close to the panther player it hits him

Bad play all around but Matthews has to make a stronger play there. Chip, IMO is not a strong, safe play.

 

[andora]

Same play, matthews had time on that play to avois the flip/scoop.

He could have chipped around instead of trying to go over.

Its in the past now though. Marner abd matthews have to clean up those miscues abd hugh risk plays this year if we want to win

No one here knows exactly what he asked for.
Like any negotiation, we can assume he didn’t get all he asked for. Same with the other players.


Bad play all around but Matthews has to make a stronger play there. Chip, IMO is not a strong, safe play.

Fair enough

I just see the root cause differently

 

[Antropovsky]

No one here knows exactly what he asked for.
Like any negotiation, we can assume he didn’t get all he asked for. Same with the other players.


Bad play all around but Matthews has to make a stronger play there. Chip, IMO is not a strong, safe play.

Broadcast color guys description of the play... "Now marner has an opportunity to get it out; instead a risky play just inside your own line.."

No mention of a mistake by Matthews.

 

[cannucky]

70 years old, watched four cups, and still playing twice a week, mostly with players at least 20 years younger.

It's pretty evident that the deeper you go in each series and in the overall playoffs, the harder each game gets. As the old saying goes, "when the going gets tough, the tough get going". Yes, the earlier games are important, but the farther you go, the more important each game becomes, and the more evident it becomes which players can step up.

I've never said the later games were less important , it certainly gets more crucial when it is an elimination game no matter what game number it is but you still have to get to that point and in the playoffs as you well know every game counts . This all started in response to a reply to post I made pointing out that Marner is actually the most productive of the big 4 forwards in the playoffs so far , this led to the typical advanced stat cherry picking by some to avoid the overall picture that doesn't coincide with their personal agendas .

 

[weems]

Are we talking about different plays?

I am referencing where marner was a couple steps from getting out and he drop passed to matthews in the middle with two panthers within a couple feet of him

Matthews tries and chips or flips but he is so close to the panther player it hits him

Both players deserve equal blame on that goal.
Once Marner recieves the pass from McCabe, He easily has time and space to skate it up the left side and out of the zone or at least flip it out if pressure by Ekblad.
Like you said he tries an unnecessary drop pass to Matthews and Matthews attempts to showtime and flip it past Luostarinen.
The entire sequence was just way too casual and high risk for the situation where it's 2-2 in your own zone, in a game you neeeded to win.