Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[thusk]

For those that didn't notice, the bad article that the individual incorrectly paraphrased the conclusion of was from 4 years ago, and the player card (that actually took market value from an outdated and problematic external model) was from over 3 years ago after his worst season of the last half-decade. There's a reason that something more recent wasn't chosen.

Thats explain a lot of thing...

 

[leafs in five]

I don't think it's such a bad article? at the least it's nice they took the trouble to link to 47 different goals. but agreed that Antropovsky (great name) incorrectly summarised its thesis and conclusion. and also that they (Antrop) repeatedly do the thing the medium article tries to address, which is to attribute one player's production entirely to their linemates!

 

[PromisedLand]

Tre gotta find a way to give marner a wedding present

TRADE HIM

 

[ToneDog]

Tre gotta find a way to give marner a wedding present

TRADE HIM

Leafs gave him his wedding present July 1st in millions and NMC. He will say thanks in April when he does his usual disappearing act as the games get tougher the deeper into the playoff series.

 

[Arzak]

Tre gotta find a way to give marner a wedding present

TRADE HIM

Underlying per 60 * 82 5v5 suggests he wasn't scarred for his life out there in playoffs.

Please keep that in mind.

 

[Arzak]

Leafs gave him his wedding present July 1st in millions and NMC. He will say thanks in April when he does his usual disappearing act as the games get tougher the deeper into the playoff series.

Trade Nylander for picks >> trade Marner for Nylander and additional picks.

This way we can keep Nylander, gain a bunch of picks, and trade Marner. Win win win...

 

[leafs in five]

Underlying per 60 * 82 5v5 suggests he wasn't scarred for his life out there in playoffs.

Please keep that in mind.

like we haven't been shown a GAR/WAR chart from EvolvingHockey to prove that he's 1m+ overpaid

 

[ToneDog]

Trade Nylander for picks >> trade Marner for Nylander and additional picks.

This way we can keep Nylander, gain a bunch of picks, and trade Marner. Win win win...

If the team you trade Willie to extends him, it should be cheaper than what we sign him for to boot.

Given 34 and 88 haven't signed yet, I would have traded all 3.

 

[notdoneyet]

What are his playoff numbers in games 4 to 7? Look that up n and you’ll see why Mitch “Leading the way” is scarier then any horror or thriller movie ever produced.

Can someone please show matthews and nylander and jt
Playoff numbers from games 1-7 like Mitch so we can see how great the other three are

 

[Racer88]

like we haven't been shown a GAR/WAR chart from EvolvingHockey to prove that he's 1m+ overpaid

How about a GWAR chart.
let’s see how many get it. Lol

 

[thewave]

If the team you trade Willie to extends him, it should be cheaper than what we sign him for to boot.

Given 34 and 88 haven't signed yet, I would have traded all 3.

They are going to hold us hostage lets face it. It's all about accessing the most lucrative package you can soak out of Toronto. If you actually threatened to trade Marner for instance he would you know what himself. He gets a large amount of money from sponsorships etc. Nobody in the US is ever going to give a rats ass about Mitch Marner, that's for sure. Nylander would sell better in the US for that matter.

 

[Racer88]

They are going to hold us hostage lets face it. It's all about accessing the most lucrative package you can soak out of Toronto. If you actually threatened to trade Marner for instance he would you know what himself. He gets a large amount of money from sponsorships etc. Nobody in the US is ever going to give a rats ass about Mitch Marner, that's for sure. Nylander would sell better in the US for that matter.

I certainly would have traded one of Matthews or Marner before their No moves kicked in.
the only option now is trading Willy

 

[Antropovsky]

For those that didn't notice, the bad article that the individual incorrectly paraphrased the conclusion of was from 4 years ago, and the player card (that actually took market value from an outdated and problematic external model) was from over 3 years ago after his worst season of the last half-decade (the season where he had a high ankle sprain). There's a reason that something more recent wasn't chosen.

I've been posting research each year following his contract. You've commenters that they all are "cherry picked" lol.

Sportsnet reporter indicated bases on the analysis of advanced stats Marner was overrated after the Tavares season.

The tap in article I just posted, the author broke down every goal of Tavares in which Marner contributed to and the majority he came to the conclusion that Tavares was the driver on most of them, not Marner.

There is the player card by Jfresh indicating he was worth 9.3 million.

Theres another author who said Marner actually decreases shot differential for his lines.

There is another author who posted stats showing Marner wasnt even in top 50 in offensive zone entries. Meanwhile the majority of the rest of the leagues most skilled made the list.

There is another author who said Tavares had a great 2019 season but his shot % likely wasn't sustainable and the Marner/Tavares line would see a decrease. He was right.


Then there is of course, his 5 bad postseasons.

The Jfresh article in hindsight is looking much more accurate 9.33milliom than the 10.893 he signed.

 

[notbias]

I've been posting research each year following his contract. You've commenters that they all are "cherry picked" lol.

Sportsnet reporter indicated bases on the analysis of advanced stats Marner was overrated after the Tavares season.

The tap in article I just posted, the author broke down every goal of Tavares in which Marner contributed to and the majority he came to the conclusion that Tavares was the driver on most of them, not Marner.

There is the player card by Jfresh indicating he was worth 9.3 million.

Theres another author who said Marner actually decreases shot differential for his lines.

There is another author who posted stats showing Marner wasnt even in top 50 in offensive zone entries. Meanwhile the majority of the rest of the leagues most skilled made the list.

There is another author who said Tavares had a great 2019 season but his shot % likely wasn't sustainable and the Marner/Tavares line would see a decrease. He was right.


Then there is of course, his 5 bad postseasons.

The Jfresh article in hindsight is looking much more accurate 9.33milliom than the 10.893 he signed.

100pts + Selke votes is 9.3?

He was overpaid, but I am not sure he is still overpaid.

What playoffs do you consider bad of his? It is crazy that only 2 of his 7 playoffs you consider good and he is basically PPG...

 

[TheGreenTBer]

How about a GWAR chart.
let’s see how many get it. Lol

None of these shitstain players deserve to be on the same planet as GWAR.

RIP Dave brockie

 

[notdoneyet]

100pts + Selke votes is 9.3?

He was overpaid, but I am not sure he is still overpaid.

What playoffs do you consider bad of his? It is crazy that only 2 of his 7 playoffs you consider good and he is basically PPG...

Don’t feed the trolls with facts. Just like marner haters like building up nylander playoff exploits as being great. His stats this year are worse than marner matthews and jt.

 

[Metroid]

How about a GWAR chart.
let’s see how many get it. Lol

Would love to see Marners reaction if he were to be in the front part of the crowd during their show.

 

[Antropovsky]

For those that didn't notice, the bad article that the individual incorrectly paraphrased the conclusion of was from 4 years ago, and the player card (that actually took market value from an outdated and problematic external model) was from over 3 years ago after his worst season of the last half-decade (the season where he had a high ankle sprain). There's a reason that something more recent wasn't chosen.

The primary narrative on Marner by some on this board was that Tavares benefitted more from Marner than the other way around.

The author of the article I posted, links a Twitter article with stats from 2019 of Marner with Tavares vs without.

Marner With Tavares: 5vs5 points 3.00
Expected gf/hr: 3.01

Marner without Tavares: 5vs5 points 1.97
Expected gf/hr: 1.73

Also, the main point of me posting the article was to show that when you read the entirety of the article... When he breaks down each goal, the author gushes repeatedly about Tavares incredible ability to get open and score...and his ability either be a set up guy or a goal scorer.

Finally... The other article I posted, the author indicates Tavares stats with Marner we're great, however, Tavares shooting percentage was an anomaly and would likely lot be sustainable. He was 100% right. So yes, Tavares stats increased Marginally from playing with Anders Lee to Marner but his shooting percentage was uncharacteristically high too. Even with Marner in following seasons he was unable to repeat the %, as the author predicted. And we all were able to witness, he and Marner haven't had the same chemistry since.

Here is another direct quote from the article. You'll see that the author summizes that Tavares can be either a playmaker or an elite goalscorer, meanwhile for Marner to thrive he will always need an elite finisher on his line:

"In order for Mitch Marner to thrive the most, he needs an elite receiver and finisher on his line: someone who can get open, take passes, and convert on his chances.

As a result, Marner’s point totals will scale depending on the quality of receiver he plays with. If it’s a lower-end receiver, he’ll have less points. If it’s John Tavares, who is one of the best in the league at doing what Marner needs in a linemate, Marner will register career highs in points.

On the other hand, Tavares has a unique tool set that allows him to adapt to who he plays with. His ability to get open to receive passes combined with his ability to make plays allows him to play with whoever at a high degree of efficiency and production."

@dekesfordays feel free to explain how you read this direct quote. Feel free to provide a summary of the authors post too on how you perceive it. Your quick to vaguely call someone incorrect, but won't explain why specifically. For good reason obviously.

 

[Antropovsky]

100pts + Selke votes is 9.3?

He was overpaid, but I am not sure he is still overpaid.

What playoffs do you consider bad of his? It is crazy that only 2 of his 7 playoffs you consider good and he is basically PPG...

All he was bad... And it's been very well documented by sports analysts. Even Barry Trotz touched on it (doesn't call him out by name) but included him in the core that he said had made improvements towards being winners.

All Marners shots were 45-60 feet out and his slot shot% was 10% worse than his next teammate. It was reported on twitter and not intended to be a compliment.

Watch his points and you'll see he isn't the line driver. His teammates are. Morgan Reilly, Matthews, Nylander, Oreilly... When he is visible with the puck it was when the goalie was pulled or on the man advantage. Otherwise he was a black hole.

He had two specific 5vs5 primary assists. On both of them Matthew or Nylander made sensational plays to draw multiple defenders and return the pass to Marner who was wide open to make the simple pass to the goal scorer.

Marner scored a few foals, all from 50-60 feet out, in statistically the worst area to score a goal. Sure.. He scored (thanks to excellent work in front by his linemates primarily) but as noted earlier your not winning a lot of big games when your 11 million dollar player is shooting entirely from the worst statistical goal scoring area on the ice and is 10% worse than ALL his linemates at getting shots from the best statistical area on the ice to score.

Moreover...vs Florida in game 2 he had turned over the puck leading to the game winning goal. In game three, he was the worst player on the ice. When the team was up 2-0 he turned the puck over 3 times in the first period alone, lead to the only chances Florida had against. In a game when your up 2-0, your best player shouldn't commit any offensive zone turnovers... Let alone 3 in one period.

In the last few years he's also turned over the puck leading to at least 5 critical goals against vs Tampa and Montreal.

He's been terrible and it's not even hard to prove.

 

[notbias]

All he was bad... And it's been very well documented by sports analysts. Even Barry Trotz touched on it (doesn't call him out by name) but included him in the core that he said had made improvements towards being winners.

All Marners shots were 45-60 feet out and his slot shot% was 10% worse than his next teammate. It was reported on twitter and not intended to be a compliment.

Watch his points and you'll see he isn't the line driver. His teammates are. Morgan Reilly, Matthews, Nylander, Oreilly... When he is visible with the puck it was when the goalie was pulled or on the man advantage. Otherwise he was a black hole.

He had two specific 5vs5 primary assists. On both of them Matthew or Nylander made sensational plays to draw multiple defenders and return the pass to Marner who was wide open to make the simple pass to the goal scorer.

Marner scored a few foals, all from 50-60 feet out, in statistically the worst area to score a goal. Sure.. He scored (thanks to excellent work in front by his linemates primarily) but as noted earlier your not winning a lot of big games when your 11 million dollar player is shooting entirely from the worst statistical goal scoring area on the ice and is 10% worse than ALL his linemates at getting shots from the best statistical area on the ice to score.

Moreover...vs Florida in game 2 he had turned over the puck leading to the game winning goal. In game three, he was the worst player on the ice. When the team was up 2-0 he turned the puck over 3 times in the first period alone, lead to the only chances Florida had against. In a game when your up 2-0, your best player shouldn't commit any offensive zone turnovers... Let alone 3 in one period.

In the last few years he's also turned over the puck leading to at least 5 critical goals against vs Tampa and Montreal.

He's been terrible and it's not even hard to prove.

Would love to see some proof.

Heat maps or something to show Marner's shot selection...

It's weird to use shooting for a pass-first player.

 

[Antropovsky]

Would love to see some proof.

Heat maps or something to show Marner's shot selection...

It's weird to use shooting for a pass-first player.

Glad you asked. According to this sportsnet article, Marner seen the largest drop in slot shot% and his distance from the net shot grew the most (10'). So the stats indicate of all the core, he hid on the perimeter of the ice the most (by a large margin). The author suggests that Matthews stats might have been negatively affected by Marners perimeter play. Which I have speculated, and I only read this now:


Here is the article link: Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner

I've posted quotes below:

Another way to look at this is by “portion of shots from the slot.” This is just compared to themselves — are they getting the same quality looks they usually get per shot? The answer, outside of Matthews, is a pretty clear “no

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.

"...It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes."

Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner – Sportsnet.ca

@Dekesfordays comments?

 

[notbias]

Glad you asked, here is a quote from a sportsnet article:

Another way to look at this is by “portion of shots from the slot.” This is just compared to themselves — are they getting the same quality looks they usually get per shot? The answer, outside of Matthews, is a pretty clear “no

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.

"...It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes."

Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner – Sportsnet.ca

@Dekesfordays comments?

Looks like Matthews not being able to finish also brought down Marner's totals.

Do you have a collective of the last few seasons? Cause despite this, Marner still put up good numbers.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Glad you asked. According to this sportsnet article, Marner seen the largest drop in slot shot% and his distance from the net shot grew the most (10'). So the stats indicate of all the core, he hid on the perimeter of the ice the most (by a large margin). The author suggests that Matthews stats might have been negatively affected by Marners perimeter play. Which I have speculated, and I only read this now:


Here is the article link: Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner

I've posted quotes below:

Another way to look at this is by “portion of shots from the slot.” This is just compared to themselves — are they getting the same quality looks they usually get per shot? The answer, outside of Matthews, is a pretty clear “no

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.

"...It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes."

Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner – Sportsnet.ca

@Dekesfordays comments?

We lost because the playoffs are a small sample size but our expected overpayments/60 are ELITE

Or something

 

[Antropovsky]

Looks like Matthews not being able to finish also brought down Marner's totals.

Do you have a collective of the last few seasons? Cause despite this, Marner still put up good numbers.

From the author:

It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes.

 

[Antropovsky]

We lost because the playoffs are a small sample size but our expected overpayments/60 are ELITE

Or something

Marners shots were 10' further from the net than the season. The closest to that increase from any other core 4 player was Nylander at 4' further in playoffs than season. Matthews and Tavares increased by just 2'.

Slot shot season vs playoffs? Matthews actually got more slot shots than the season. Meanwhile Marners slot shot% decreased by 13%. Nylanders decreased by about 10%, while Tavares decreased by 6.5%

As you can see.. Marner quite easily his game statistically worsened the most.

Any comments @Dekesfordays? These stats are as recent as they get.