Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Racer88]

None of these shitstain players deserve to be on the same planet as GWAR.

RIP Dave brockie

Strangest band in the history of the world. Lol

Would love to see Marners reaction if he were to be in the front part of the crowd during their show.

Me too

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Strangest band in the history of the world. Lol


Me too

I was lucky enough to have a ton of fake blood dumped on me at a GWAR show once

I was so honored

 

[Racer88]

I was lucky enough to have a ton of fake blood dumped on me at a GWAR show once

I was so honored

That’s awesome. I have never seen them live but I do know of them and watched a couple of videos

 

[Gallagbi]

They are going to hold us hostage lets face it. It's all about accessing the most lucrative package you can soak out of Toronto. If you actually threatened to trade Marner for instance he would you know what himself. He gets a large amount of money from sponsorships etc. Nobody in the US is ever going to give a rats ass about Mitch Marner, that's for sure. Nylander would sell better in the US for that matter.

I dont know what, enlighten me

 

[thewave]

I dont know what, enlighten me

Crap himself because if he has brains he knows that leaving Toronto means a lot of those sponsors are gone. Nobody in the US is going to be drawn towards Mitch Marner. Actually I don't even know how he has as many sponsors as he does considering his personality being down right awful and unlikable.

Add: Not sure how you feel about the guy but can anyone tell me what is likable about his personality? It's not looks, it's not charm, it's not being funny, it's certainly not being interesting. He plays video games? Is that it?

I don't know

 

[Dekes For Days]

I've been posting research each year following his contract. You've commenters that they all are "cherry picked" lol.
Sportsnet reporter indicated bases on the analysis of advanced stats Marner was overrated after the Tavares season.
The tap in article I just posted, the author broke down every goal of Tavares in which Marner contributed to and the majority he came to the conclusion that Tavares was the driver on most of them, not Marner.
There is the player card by Jfresh indicating he was worth 9.3 million.
Theres another author who said Marner actually decreases shot differential for his lines.
There is another author who posted stats showing Marner wasnt even in top 50 in offensive zone entries. Meanwhile the majority of the rest of the leagues most skilled made the list.
There is another author who said Tavares had a great 2019 season but his shot % likely wasn't sustainable and the Marner/Tavares line would see a decrease. He was right.
Then there is of course, his 5 bad postseasons.
The Jfresh article in hindsight is looking much more accurate 9.33milliom than the 10.893 he signed.

The primary narrative on Marner by some on this board was that Tavares benefitted more from Marner than the other way around.
The author of the article I posted, links a Twitter article with stats from 2019 of Marner with Tavares vs without.
Marner With Tavares: 5vs5 points 3.00
Expected gf/hr: 3.01
Marner without Tavares: 5vs5 points 1.97
Expected gf/hr: 1.73
Also, the main point of me posting the article was to show that when you read the entirety of the article... When he breaks down each goal, the author gushes repeatedly about Tavares incredible ability to get open and score...and his ability either be a set up guy or a goal scorer.
Finally... The other article I posted, the author indicates Tavares stats with Marner we're great, however, Tavares shooting percentage was an anomaly and would likely lot be sustainable. He was 100% right. So yes, Tavares stats increased Marginally from playing with Anders Lee to Marner but his shooting percentage was uncharacteristically high too. Even with Marner in following seasons he was unable to repeat the %, as the author predicted. And we all were able to witness, he and Marner haven't had the same chemistry since.
Here is another direct quote from the article. You'll see that the author summizes that Tavares can be either a playmaker or an elite goalscorer, meanwhile for Marner to thrive he will always need an elite finisher on his line:
"In order for Mitch Marner to thrive the most, he needs an elite receiver and finisher on his line: someone who can get open, take passes, and convert on his chances.
As a result, Marner’s point totals will scale depending on the quality of receiver he plays with. If it’s a lower-end receiver, he’ll have less points. If it’s John Tavares, who is one of the best in the league at doing what Marner needs in a linemate, Marner will register career highs in points.
On the other hand, Tavares has a unique tool set that allows him to adapt to who he plays with. His ability to get open to receive passes combined with his ability to make plays allows him to play with whoever at a high degree of efficiency and production."
@dekesfordays feel free to explain how you read this direct quote. Feel free to provide a summary of the authors post too on how you perceive it. Your quick to vaguely call someone incorrect, but won't explain why specifically. For good reason obviously.

Glad you asked. According to this sportsnet article, Marner seen the largest drop in slot shot% and his distance from the net shot grew the most (10'). So the stats indicate of all the core, he hid on the perimeter of the ice the most (by a large margin). The author suggests that Matthews stats might have been negatively affected by Marners perimeter play. Which I have speculated, and I only read this now:
Here is the article link: Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner
I've posted quotes below:
Another way to look at this is by “portion of shots from the slot.” This is just compared to themselves — are they getting the same quality looks they usually get per shot? The answer, outside of Matthews, is a pretty clear “no
Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.
"...It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes."

Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner – Sportsnet.ca

@Dekesfordays comments?

Marners shots were 10' further from the net than the season. The closest to that increase from any other core 4 player was Nylander at 4' further in playoffs than season. Matthews and Tavares increased by just 2'.
Slot shot season vs playoffs? Matthews actually got more slot shots than the season. Meanwhile Marners slot shot% decreased by 13%. Nylanders decreased by about 10%, while Tavares decreased by 6.5%
As you can see.. Marner quite easily his game statistically worsened the most.
Any comments @Dekesfordays? These stats are as recent as they get.

I'm not sure why you chose to not only respond to my same post multiple times, but then tag me in multiple other posts. I don't see the point of having this exact same discussion again for the 50th time, especially when you start off by incorrectly paraphrasing every article you've selectively chosen, and incorrectly using specific microstats to make broad claims about Marner.

Let's just say that there's a lot more to wholly evaluating a player than just tap ins created, zone entries, slot shot%, shot distance, and w/wo stats that are missing all context, over different, very specifically chosen time periods - some of which were 4 years ago.

 

[Malachi Crunch]

I was lucky enough to have a ton of fake blood dumped on me at a GWAR show once

I was so honored

Same here. Haha! 1991

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Same here. Haha! 1991

Nice username BTW

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm not sure why you chose to not only respond to my same post multiple times, but then tag me in multiple other posts. I don't see the point of having this exact same discussion again for the 50th time, especially when you start off by incorrectly paraphrasing every article you've selectively chosen, and incorrectly using specific microstats to make broad claims about Marner.

Let's just say that there's a lot more to wholly evaluating a player than just tap ins created, zone entries, slot shot%, shot distance, and w/wo stats that are missing all context, over different, very specifically chosen periods - some of which were 4 years ago.

What context is to miss that Marners slot shots and distance from the net worsened substantially compared to the other core 4? Was Matthews and Tavares pushing him out from the slot and onto the blueline?

 

[cannucky]

I slept on it but still laughing at "XBox much?" , that's how you diss someone 1980s' style !

Well done Sir.

Still relevant for these keyboard commando's we have around here who never laced em up and haven't a clue what it takes to block a clapper or feel the lumber . But thank you for the kind words .

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm not sure why you chose to not only respond to my same post multiple times, but then tag me in multiple other posts. I don't see the point of having this exact same discussion again for the 50th time, especially when you start off by incorrectly paraphrasing every article you've selectively chosen, and incorrectly using specific microstats to make broad claims about Marner.

Let's just say that there's a lot more to wholly evaluating a player than just tap ins created, zone entries, slot shot%, shot distance, and w/wo stats that are missing all context, over different, very specifically chosen time periods - some of which were 4 years ago.

I've noticed (and numerous others have noticed and called you out on) that your go to, is to say someone misparaphrased articles. You never actually go into detail on what was incorrectly stated. This is because this is subjective... You could literally say anyone musparaphrased someone, so long as the person doesn't do a direct quote. Which is why you like to say it...(it's not that clever btw)

This is what I said and you say I incorrectly paraphrased it, tell me what is incorrect:

Here's a great article, where the author put serious work into breaking down Tavares 2019 season with Marner. Recall the narrative by some, has been that Marner made Tavares better.... This author break down of each and every goal they scored together indicates Marner was benefitting from Tavares complete game more than the other way around. The authors opinion on many were that many of the goals were a result of the elite abilities of Tavares, that few other players possess.

In fact the author posts advanced stats showing how Marners stats without Tavares we're much worse.

Let's break down what I say:

1) The author put serious work into breaking down every goal of Tavares.

This is not for debate. The author literally breaks down all 47 Tavares goals.

2) Recall the narrative by some, has been that Marner made Tavares better....

- This is 100% and not for debate. Try me and ill post numerous posts from the marner appreciation thread. Sandwiched with the Marner is comparable to Gretzky talk.

3)This author break down of each and every goal they scored together indicates Marner was benefitting from Tavares complete game more than the other way around.

- The author does break down every goal. And the author does say Marner benefits from Tavares complete game more. He literally posts the stats showing it lol. Unfortunately the authors twitter link doesn't connect to twitter post but the chart is in the article. Here is the author introducing the stats:

This is explains why Tavares’ teammates are constantly better with him than without him:


Chart via Jeff Veillete
It also can help explain why Tavares score 47 goals this year

@Deked for days multiple posters have called you out on your antics. Your overused "cherry picking" and "incorrectly parphrased" comments are old and most have caught on to them. I've had to watch multiple people call you out on them.

But sure.. I'll play along, mostly because I like watching you make yourself look bad. humor everyone, please provide "details" on what I incorrectly paraphrased. Stop with this vague high school bull shi% that isn't fooling anyone.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What context is to miss that Marners slot shots and distance from the net worsened substantially compared to the other core 4?

The real question is why are you hyper focused in on claims (that are conveniently unsourced and can't be verified or contextualized league-wide) about one playmaker's slot shot percentages and shot distance changes over a small sample? Do you realize that we had a closer shot distance against Florida than Florida faced through the rest of the playoffs?

I've noticed (and numerous others have noticed and called you out on) that your go to, is to say someone misparaphrased articles. You never actually go into detail on what was incorrectly stated.

You're the only one saying this, because you're the only one I've said this to, because you're the only one doing it.
I've gone into detail countless times over the years, and you keep doing it.
The article didn't say he was "overrated" or that "Tavares was the driver" or that "Marner benefitted from Tavares more than the other way around".
In fact, their literal conclusion that they clearly state was "the answer is more they both propel each other".
And this was an article largely focused around determining "tap ins" 5 years ago, so not exactly a comprehensive or relevant look at Marner in the first place.

 

[Antropovsky]

The real question is why are you hyper focused in on claims (that are conveniently unsourced and can't be verified or contextualized league-wide) about one playmaker's slot shot percentages and shot distance changes over a small sample? Do you realize that we had a closer shot distance against Florida than Florida faced through the rest of the playoffs?

Unsourced? I posted the link to the article.

Can't be verified? Sportsnets author indicates in the article that all his data came from sportslogiq..

Do you realize that we had a closer shot distance against Florida than Florida faced through the rest of the playoffs?
What do you mean "we"... We are talking about Marner. Could you expand on this very vague info?

 

[Antropovsky]

The real question is why are you hyper focused in on claims (that are conveniently unsourced and can't be verified or contextualized league-wide) about one playmaker's slot shot percentages and shot distance changes over a small sample? Do you realize that we had a closer shot distance against Florida than Florida faced through the rest of the playoffs?

You're the only one saying this, because you're the only one I've said this to, because you're the only one doing it.
I've gone into detail countless times over the years, and you keep doing it.
The article didn't say he was "overrated" or that "Tavares was the driver" or that "Marner benefitted from Tavares more than the other way around".
In fact, their literal conclusion that they clearly state was "the answer is more they both propel each other".
And this was an article largely focused around determining "tap ins" 5 years ago, so not exactly a comprehensive or relevant look at Marner in the first place.

The article didn't say he was "overrated" or that "Tavares was the driver" or that "Marner benefitted from Tavares more than the other way around".

When I said Sportsnet reporter said he was overrated, I was referring to the Sportsnet video that I have linked below... I'll quote exactly what Berkshire says because I don't want you to have an excuse to focus on nitpicking paraphrasing in order to distract from the real discussion about Marner...

BTW the headline of the sportsnet video is "Why Marner isn’t quite at same level as Matthews or Tavares"

Exact quote from Berskhire:
" Marner might be the most overrated player in the league, just because the Toronto presence is so powerful."

 

[Dekes For Days]

Can't be verified? Sportsnets author indicates in the article that all his data came from sportslogiq..

Which means that it can't be verified or contextualized by any of us, because it's not publicly available. That leads us to a situation where a person writing an article, looking to craft a specific narrative, can pick out a couple microstats (out of the countless they have) over a specific sample that best paints that picture.

For example, the author in this article wants to perpetuate the narrative that us getting "goalie'd" is a result of us not getting to the inside and sticking to the perimeter. But we actually shot from closer than the rest of Florida's opponents, so we know that's not true. So that begs the question... what's the average shot distance drop off from regular season to playoffs? He even notes that one should expect shot distance to get further away in the playoffs and lists some reasons, but he conveniently leaves that critical information out, and there's no way for us to check and contextualize the information he's feeding us.

In the next part, the author claims to want to answer the quality we're getting per shot (which again, was actually quite good), but for some reason, despite there being massively better ways to answer this question, he takes the most obscure approach possible, by focusing in on specifically the change in "portion of shots from the slot" for a few of our players. What about all of the dangerous or close up shots that don't fit within that super narrow criteria? Did the portion change because they got less slot shots or because they got more other shots? How does this compare league-wide? All conveniently excluded.

This is like if I posted this from sportslogiq:

Better than McDavid, with the two of them in a league of their own!
Does Marner leading the "most passes leading to scoring chance" microstat over that specific timeframe prove that he's the bestest ever?
Or are we maybe missing some other information in a comprehensive evaluation of the player?

What do you mean "we"...

The Leafs. Maybe we should consider that our best playmaker had an influence on those results in ways other than specifically his own shots.

When I said Sportsnet reporter said he was overrated, I was referring to the Sportsnet video that I have linked below...

I don't know why you were referencing a habs fan's opinion in an old video that wasn't part of the discussion, but that still doesn't explain your representation of the tap in article's conclusion being directly opposite what they said.

 

[Antropovsky]

Which means that it can't be verified or contextualized by any of us, because it's not publicly available. That leads us to a situation where a person writing an article, looking to craft a specific narrative, can pick out a couple microstats (out of the countless they have) over a specific sample that best paints that picture.

For example, the author in this article wants to perpetuate the narrative that us getting "goalie'd" is a result of us not getting to the inside and sticking to the perimeter. But we actually shot from closer than the rest of Florida's opponents, so we know that's not true. So that begs the question... what's the average shot distance drop off from regular season to playoffs? He even notes that one should expect shot distance to get further away in the playoffs and lists some reasons, but he conveniently leaves that critical information out, and there's no way for us to check and contextualize the information he's feeding us.

In the next part, the author claims to want to answer the quality we're getting per shot (which again, was actually quite good), but for some reason, despite there being massively better ways to answer this question, he takes the most obscure approach possible, by focusing in on specifically the change in "portion of shots from the slot" for a few of our players. What about all of the dangerous or close up shots that don't fit within that super narrow criteria? Did the portion change because they got less slot shots or because they got more other shots? How does this compare league-wide? All conveniently excluded.

This is like if I posted this from sportslogiq:

Better than McDavid, with the two of them in a league of their own!
Does Marner leading the "most passes leading to scoring chance" microstat over that specific timeframe prove that he's the bestest ever?
Or are we maybe missing some other information in a comprehensive evaluation of the player?

The Leafs. Maybe we should consider that our best playmaker had an influence on those results in ways other than specifically his own shots.

I don't know why you were referencing a habs fan's opinion in an old video that wasn't part of the discussion, but that still doesn't explain your representation of the tap in article's conclusion being directly opposite what they said.

Dear lord... Now your saying it can't be verified because it isn't free? If you really don't believe it... Pay for it.

Why are you suddenly wanting to focus on the teams overall play and stats, rather than Marner stats? The author compares Marner to the rest of the core 4. And Marners stats relative to the core 4 were substantially worse.

Matthews shot distance increased, but only by 2', while Marners increased by 10'. Which is 5X worse.

Matthews shot from slot %... Actually increased. While Marners got 13% worse and don't forget this gem:

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Now your saying it can't be verified because it isn't free? If you really don't believe it... Pay for it.

It's not whether or not what the author specifically picked out is technically true. It's about the bigger picture that the author of the article left out to craft his story.
And you can't pay for it. It's only available to teams, media organizations, etc.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Thanks for the response.

They all got everything they wanted the last time and expect to do so again this time. It will be the same thing all over. Nylander will stab the knife deep in the back first.

Then Marner will come along and twist it.

Nylander is the one who didn't get everything he wanted last time, and he won't be going first this time.

Matthews will stab the knife deep in the back first, Nylander will give it a bit of a push, and Marner will twist.

If Matthews doesn't stick the knife in, as he said he wouldn't, then Nylander says he won't either.

 

[ACC1224]

Nylander is the one who didn't get everything he wanted last time, and he won't be going first this time.

Matthews will stab the knife deep in the back first, Nylander will give it a bit of a push, and Marner will twist.

If Matthews doesn't stick the knife in, as he said he wouldn't, then Nylander says he won't either.

He didn't? Sure seemed like he did.

 

[notDatsyuk]

60 years old played in the East end of T.O. where I grew up buddy , alive for the last 2 cups and was in the womb for another , how about yourself there keyboard king , XBox much ? You still need to win games to get to games 5, 6, and 7 and somebody has to put up points to get you those wins . It never ceases to amaze me how the swallowers ignore the basic stats and make up these obscure stat scenarios that fit their narrative . Now go cry to the mods and I'll take yet another sussy .

70 years old, watched four cups, and still playing twice a week, mostly with players at least 20 years younger.

It's pretty evident that the deeper you go in each series and in the overall playoffs, the harder each game gets. As the old saying goes, "when the going gets tough, the tough get going". Yes, the earlier games are important, but the farther you go, the more important each game becomes, and the more evident it becomes which players can step up.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I do like it when appreciation threads are reserved for those who leave or retire. Right now it seems like pandering to a team full of players that are fragile and need constant positive feedback. As if they read this anyways.

The tribute threads are for Marner and Tavares - obviously the respective OPs actually hope they will leave or retire.

 

[notdoneyet]

Nylander is the one who didn't get everything he wanted last time, and he won't be going first this time.

Matthews will stab the knife deep in the back first, Nylander will give it a bit of a push, and Marner will twist.

If Matthews doesn't stick the knife in, as he said he wouldn't, then Nylander says he won't either.

Ok nylander is the one who didn’t get everything he wanted right?
Let’s look at it
Wanted 8 supposedly got 6.9 which was in some cases more than his comparables
Held out for three months and got all his money back that he lost for choosing to sit out. He actually made 10.2 million that year for sitting out. He came into the team in terrible shape and managed 27 points for 10.2 million.

I think he got quite a lot considering he left the team by sitting out. He should have been traded then to send a message. Too late now

 

[81Leafs50]

I can see him leaving his hometown, his celebrity status, front-loaded contract, and overpayment the rest of the league would not stomach if we ask nicely!

the rest of the league would not stomach? lol who cares about the rest of the league.

 

[thewave]

He is basically Semin. He will slap someone sooner or later but until that happens we just have to suffer skip the dishes ads.

I would really like to see what his points totals would be without AM who is actually a prolific goal scorer in the Ovechkin tier.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Glad you asked. According to this sportsnet article, Marner seen the largest drop in slot shot% and his distance from the net shot grew the most (10'). So the stats indicate of all the core, he hid on the perimeter of the ice the most (by a large margin). The author suggests that Matthews stats might have been negatively affected by Marners perimeter play. Which I have speculated, and I only read this now:


Here is the article link: Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner

I've posted quotes below:

Another way to look at this is by “portion of shots from the slot.” This is just compared to themselves — are they getting the same quality looks they usually get per shot? The answer, outside of Matthews, is a pretty clear “no

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.

"...It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes."

Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner – Sportsnet.ca

@Dekesfordays comments?

The difference in shooting distance is even more glaring when you use % increase instead of just absolute distance.

Nylander 6.6% farther
Tavares 11.5% farther
Matthews 15.6% farther
Marner 31.6% farther

It's not really surprising that centers get more shots from the slot than wingers, but the dropoff between similar positions is:

Centers - from Matty (1.8% increase) to JT (6.5% decrease)
Wingers - from Willy (9.5% decrease) to Mitch (13.1% decrease)

It's not really surprising that JT leads in shots on net from the inner slot, as he really doesn't do much else, but is it surprising that the next best isn't Matthews, but Willy?

Marners shots were 10' further from the net than the season. The closest to that increase from any other core 4 player was Nylander at 4' further in playoffs than season. Matthews and Tavares increased by just 2'.

Slot shot season vs playoffs? Matthews actually got more slot shots than the season. Meanwhile Marners slot shot% decreased by 13%. Nylanders decreased by about 10%, while Tavares decreased by 6.5%

As you can see.. Marner quite easily his game statistically worsened the most.

Any comments @Dekesfordays? These stats are as recent as they get.

I think you made a mental typo.

Matthews was 4' further away, Nylander and Tavares just 2'.