Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[ACC1224]

I’m still floored that somehow 70% of the people in this thread poll reached the conclusion that we should be trading Marner. Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but I will belittle those opinions where I see fit

You shouldn't be surprised. Some are forming opinions on players based on their Wedding Video.

 

[uncleben]

Bring it back on topic or feel free to leave the thread.

 

[notDatsyuk]

In my defense, Im an empty nester. My kids arent around to abuse anymore and I got nostalgic.
Really empty calories though because at least they had the whit to give their old man a run from time to time. I know now that this is just wrong and I'll do better to pick on my own size.

Same here. There are a couple of posters I feel a little guilty picking on sometimes.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

With Bergeron retired is the Selke a contest between Mitch and Nico Heshier?

 

[Arzak]

Bring it back on topic or feel free to leave the thread.

The topic was closed on July 1st with his NMC kicking in.

@Notsince67 all joking aside we'll need you when they eventually sign the next abomination.

 

[Notsince67]

The topic was closed on July 1st with his NMC kicking in.

@Notsince67 all joking aside we'll need you when they eventually sign the next abomination.

Klingberg

 

[thusk]

I'm so sick and tired of posting this it isn't even funny

We can cherry pick as many games as we like to fit a particular narrative, at the end of the day this speaks volumes and should lead to zero substantial questions :



This isn't close, this entire discussion is embarrassing.

Thats what you said... hes significantly producing more when the most basic stats of pts/ game saying its false

Lets see kucherov marner last 2 season

Kucherov scored 182 pts in 129
Vs 196 in 152 game

Kucherov at a rate of 1,41 pts/gm
Vs
Marner at 1,29...

look huge If youre stopping there but if you wqtching a little bit more... just in pp ice time, kucherov got 40 second more than marner every game...

Some small calcul to show impact of it...

40 sec X 129 game = 5160 second /60 = 86 min
Kucherov scored at a rate of 9,39 points every /60

So 86 /60 = to get number of 60 minutes kucherov played over marner = 1,43

1,43 X 9,39 = 13,459 pts in a pace of 129 game who was result of tampa getting additionnal 62 powerplay opportunities over toronto last 2 season.


Remove those 13 points production rate of kucherov drop at 1,31...

And we didn't take in consideration 5v3 leafs pratically never have...

So it is right to consider kucherov better offensivly for the only reason than tampa was 3rd in term of quantity of pp opportunities and toronto 22th?

If your moving kucherov to toronto and marner to tampa at the same rate they was producing right now just with difference of pp time

Marner raising from 99 to 105 pts and kucherov dropping of 110 to 101 pts

You're not wrong at all.

I get it that reffing is terrible in the playoffs and the Leafs don't get many powerplays, but when they do - they do f*** all with them. It's an area where Marner and Matthews need to get better at. So many times over recent years we needed a PP goal at a crucial time and those guys just can't deliver.


Do you have anyway of hypothesizing what Marner's production would be if he got Kucherov's PP time?

Just reqd it, its the impact of it

 

[ZEBROA]

After reading this thread ive changed my mind. Trade Marner and Nylander, make a new poll on who the new scapegoats will be.

I wanted more from Marner and Matthews most Matthews through the year. The only thing i got against Marner is his bodylanguage some times. I dont think he understands how much that affect teammates when the best player looks like he is giving up or caves. I understand why, i just dont think its the best for the team.

 

[Arzak]

Klingberg

Yeah I'm a bit torn about this one, it's 1 year so no real issues long-term.
We might get lucky and see 2018 67 point Klingberg ( so we can pay him properly next year!)

 

[freshwind]

With Bergeron retired is the Selke a contest between Mitch and Nico Heshier?

let's hope not - it will add 1 to 1.5 m per on his ask for his next deal lol ... awards voted on by the media are nothing more than a poll, similar to the ones on here ....

 

[Captain Crunch]

"Other players" covers a big range. Even some of the best players in the world didn't win young. Why does our players being better and thus being paid a consistent amount more mean that we should win faster in a cap world?

They do apply to both teams. They don't only affect the Leafs. You're just only focused on how it affects the Leafs.
Over two series against us (13 GP), both Point and Stamkos put up a 50 point pace. Do they suck? Are they bad playoff performers? They didn't even face good goaltending. In the Florida series, a lot is made about Matthews not getting a goal, but Tkachuk didn't get one either. Did he suck in this playoffs? Barkov had 3 points in 5 games against us. Does he suck? Ovechkin and Kuznetsov both played at a 41 point pace against us in the playoffs? Are they bad playoff performers?

We can also look at some players who faced our opponents after us. Against Montreal, Point had 0 goals and 3 points in 5 GP. Pacioretty 3 in 6. Dubois and Ehlers 1 in 4. Stamkos 1 in 5. Stone, Scheifele, Wheeler big fat 0s. Aho put up 2 points right after us this year against Florida as his team got swept. 5 points in 7 games for Pastrnak in a high scoring series. But crickets about them. Even though Boston lost to a team 43 points below them and Carolina's coach basically just went out and said "meh, well it wasn't REALLY a sweep if you think about it because we played hard". Can you even imagine if we did/said that?

It would also make sense that the Leafs have faced a bigger deflationary effect than their opponents, because goaltending is the most impactful external factor, and we've faced a lot of the most elite goalies in the game (which have populated our division and conference), some of them in the process of really good runs that extend far beyond us, while we don't have that. And we've also faced some high end defensive teams over the years, while we've only gotten good defensively in the last few years.

But it doesn't change that small sample sizes limit the representative value of raw points.
And quite frankly, you can play the maximum number of games in a playoffs, and it still wouldn't be a significant sample.

Yes it is. Would you completely alter your perception of players based on where they stand halfway through next season? Those games also stretch back to when they were rookies and teenagers, so how relevant can it even be to right now? And as I went over, a bigger sample doesn't mean an equalized experience in the playoffs anyway.

It's not always the Leafs that face this goalie. It has happened 3 times in 8 series (2 of which where our best shooter was injured, and the other after a 5 month break mid-pandemic in a bubble), and every time, the same goalie continued it afterward against other teams.
Our stars have solved many goalies, but star players aren't immune from being affected by things like goaltending impacts. It affects everybody.

All games and wins are important. They are all worth the same.

We were the 9th best defensive team last year. In the playoffs, we were within 0.03 of our regular season resuls while facing two of the top 7 offense-generating teams in the league. But perception of defensive play is heavily impacted by the performance of a goaltender, and our goaltending went from +0.294 GSAx per game over the regular season to -0.045 GSAx in the playoffs. We had moments where we struggled to get the puck out of the zone, which tend to stick in the mind, even through they represent a pretty small proportion of overall play.

Yup, let’s continue to blame the goalie for Matthews’ and Marner’s lack of killer instinct, not to mention not being able to start on time, as well as playing uninspiring hockey numerous times in the playoffs!

Since drafting Matthews and Marner, this has created the “perfect storm” with this team. You have two greedy all-about-themselves type of players combined with ownership who is unwilling to draw a line in the sand regarding keeping players’ salaries in line with team build, and themselves being starstruck with these two.
Tell me why they wouldn’t say how much they like it here, and love playing for the Leafs, when they get whatever they want??? I’m too lazy to look it up. Please give me some names of players who wanted all they could get, or as you like to say “deserved”, where it ended up with the team having success (meaning, of course, in the playoffs!).
Interesting note, Vegas (1) and Florida (2) (Cup winner and Cup runner up), and Carolina (0) and Dallas (0) (Conference finalists), were the only teams with the fewest players making at least $10 million. In 2022 playoffs, I believe three of the four Conference finalists did not have one player making at least $10 million, and further to the point, the two Cup finalists, Colorado and Tampa, had none. But I know what you’re going to say, Dekes, you see the number of +$10 million players increasing. Time will tell!

And don’t forget what I said, if they make it to the Cup finals by having three forwards making basically $11 million, then you and ownership are truly wise people. Of course, as the cap continues to increase, eventually there will be teams with at least two, if not three, players making at least $10 million. That will not count, obviously, and of course you would have been quick to say how smart you are when that eventually does occur. If, on the other hand, they never do, your opinion will never change. Some people can admit when they’re wrong, but unfortunately, some never can!

 

[TimeZone]

Thats what you said... hes significantly producing more when the most basic stats of pts/ game saying its false

Lets see kucherov marner last 2 season

Kucherov scored 182 pts in 129
Vs 196 in 152 game

Kucherov at a rate of 1,41 pts/gm
Vs
Marner at 1,29...

look huge If youre stopping there but if you wqtching a little bit more... just in pp ice time, kucherov got 40 second more than marner every game...

Some small calcul to show impact of it...

40 sec X 129 game = 5160 second /60 = 86 min
Kucherov scored at a rate of 9,39 points every /60

So 86 /60 = to get number of 60 minutes kucherov played over marner = 1,43

1,43 X 9,39 = 13,459 pts in a pace of 129 game who was result of tampa getting additionnal 62 powerplay opportunities over toronto last 2 season.


Remove those 13 points production rate of kucherov drop at 1,31...

And we didn't take in consideration 5v3 leafs pratically never have...

So it is right to consider kucherov better offensivly for the only reason than tampa was 3rd in term of quantity of pp opportunities and toronto 22th?

If your moving kucherov to toronto and marner to tampa at the same rate they was producing right now just with difference of pp time

Marner raising from 99 to 105 pts and kucherov dropping of 110 to 101 pts



Just reqd it, its the impact of it

Mitch Marner quite literally averaged over a full minute more ice time per game last Season alone over Nikita Kucherov.

Nikita Kucherov getting more PP time and being more productive with it, it isn't a negative.

The comparison falls flat, and it's first and foremost due to playoff production, this is where Mitch Marner folds, while Kucherov trends up, this is why they're a tier apart, right here :

Last 5 Seasons

Kucherov : 1.26 PPG

Marner : 0.91 PPG

That's where the gap presents itself, playoff production, and it isn't even remotely close between the two players.

The fact of the matter is, Kucherov steps up his game when the goings get tough, Mitchell Marner tends to fizzle out.

We can post graphs, hypothetical statistics all we like, at the end of the day what matters is who leads their team to playoff success, and this is ignoring the fact that Kuch is also the superior regular Season producer as well.

The only thing that matters, is results, and the results heavily favor Nikita Kucherov.

 

[leafs in five]

the ppg totals are so clearly not 'not even remotely close'

 

[notbias]

Mitch Marner quite literally averaged over a full minute more ice time per game last Season alone over Nikita Kucherov.

Nikita Kucherov getting more PP time and being more productive with it, it isn't a negative.

Might want to edit this...

Marner

Kucherov

 

[TimeZone]

Might want to edit this...

Marner
View attachment 733144


Kucherov
View attachment 733145

So 26 more seconds of PP time per game for Kucherov, 42 seconds more even strength per game for Kuch and 2:16 more per game on the PK for Mitch Marner, in which he amassed a relatively impressive 5 shorthanded points.

Why would I edit anything? Marner played over a minute more per game, Kucherov had slightly more PP and even strength time during the regular Season and was more productive with it.

That's it, that's what was posted and that's how it is.

 

[notbias]

So 26 more seconds of PP time per game for Kucherov, 42 seconds more even strength per game for Kuch and 2:16 more per game on the PK for Mitch Marner, in which he amassed a relatively impressive 5 shorthanded points.

Why would I edit anything? Marner played over a minute more per game, Kucherov had slightly more PP and even strength time during the regular Season and was more productive with it.

That's it, that's what was posted and that's how it is.

Well, Marner was more productive 5v5 if you even out playing time, so wrong there.

On the PP Kucherov produces more, that is where he is best.

The PP is the reason there is a big gap.

Does Mitch being one of the best PKers make up for it?

 

[socko]

Does Guy Carbonneau make the same money as Gretzky?

 

[TimeZone]

Well, Marner was more productive 5v5 if you even out playing time, so wrong there.

On the PP Kucherov produces more, that is where he is best.

The PP is the reason there is a big gap.

Does Mitch being one of the best PKers make up for it?

PP's increase come playoff time contrary to popular belief, I'm not sure why people continue to attempt to use this as a negative, PP goals count just the same.

No, Marner being the superior penalty killer does not make up for the gargantuan gap in playoff production throughout their careers, not even remotely close.

Career wise

Kucherov : 3.694 P/60

Marner : 3.332 P/60

Kucherov is simply....better, and that gap widens significantly come playoff time.

 

[notbias]

PP's increase come playoff time contrary to popular belief, I'm not sure why people continue to attempt to use this as a negative, PP goals count just the same.

No, Marner being the superior penalty killer does not make up for the gargantuan gap in playoff production throughout their careers, not even remotely close.

Career wise

Kucherov : 3.694 P/60

Marner : 3.332 P/60

Kucherov is simply....better, and that gap widens significantly come playoff time.

Except this year where Marner out produced him.

Compare careers when they both retire.

I don't think anyone is going to argue Marner has a better career, but currently not sure Kucherov is better.

 

[supermann_98]

Do we really have a thread pumping Marner in a game 7?

That was his worst game in a leaf jersey, by a country mile. The 2 minor penalties for flipping the puck into the stands was enough to make me turn the channel and call for him to be traded, but no, instead he's gonna want a raise because he's a selke candidate, to which I laugh because he fly-bys and blows the zone like this video in every single game

 

[supermann_98]

It was a poll made on a very negatively-skewed message board on the day that the Leaf's season ended.
It's not really a good representation of the position of the overall fanbase.

Show me a positively-skewed message board on the day the Leafs season ended

 

[TimeZone]

Except this year where Marner out produced him.

Compare careers when they both retire.

I don't think anyone is going to argue Marner has a better career, but currently not sure Kucherov is better.

Bump the thread when Marner out produces the entire league in the playoffs en route to a Stanley Cup championship.

Until then, or at the very least until Marner significantly closes the gap when it comes to playoff production, the gap remains large.

 

[thusk]

Mitch Marner quite literally averaged over a full minute more ice time per game last Season alone over Nikita Kucherov.

Nikita Kucherov getting more PP time and being more productive with it, it isn't a negative.

The comparison falls flat, and it's first and foremost due to playoff production, this is where Mitch Marner folds, while Kucherov trends up, this is why they're a tier apart, right here :

Last 5 Seasons

Kucherov : 1.26 PPG

Marner : 0.91 PPG

That's where the gap presents itself, playoff production, and it isn't even remotely close between the two players.

The fact of the matter is, Kucherov steps up his game when the goings get tough, Mitchell Marner tends to fizzle out.

We can post graphs, hypothetical statistics all we like, at the end of the day what matters is who leads their team to playoff success, and this is ignoring the fact that Kuch is also the superior regular Season producer as well.

The only thing that matters, is results, and the results heavily favor Nikita Kucherov.

Over a full minute ... for sure... marner playing over 2 min by game in penalty kill vs 0 for kucherov...

And sure comparing marner at 21 to 25 year old vs kucherov 25 to 29 making sense when kucherov was a his high and marner was still progressing... for sure go ahead... we can compare both player between 21 to 25 kucherov was producing at a rate of 1,12 pts/gm vs 1,22 for marner

Whos lead team for playoff success was Vasilevskiy... kucherov stats last 4 season on decisive game 1 goal 10 assist 0,55 pts/ game and 0,05 goal/60... thats exactly what leafs fan blaming marner, how he played on decisive game

Marner on decisive game last 4 year 1 goal 7 assist in 11 game. 0,73 pts/game and 0,09 goal/game

When series was on the line, Marner outproduced kucherov... its also a fact so if tampa would need to count on kucherov offensive to win series... they would not won any series in last 4 season, at best 1 series... i know its not the reality you want to heard but its only fact...

 

[ZEBROA]

Kucherov or Marner. I realy dont know if Kucherov would have made any difference. Its defence vs offence.

If we are supposed to be the driving team, then offence is the key, so then its Kucherov.
If we are supposed to win with a great D and counterattack then Marner.

My only wish is that Marner toughen up his body language. "Dont get sad get even" .

Tavares thou, that was a stupid signing.

 

[cannucky]

Has anybody in this thread actually compared his playoff production to the Leafs you want to keep me instead of Mitchy ? Spoiler alert he has the highest points per game of any of the big four , Nylander , Mathew and Marner have all played 50 playoff games , all together against the same opponents , Tavares as a Leaf has the lowest production of the four and Mitch is leading the way so maybe do your homework before arguing production numbers .