Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Frostitute]

He is just above superstar Kevin Fiala! Just behind Marner is 64 goal scorer Mcdavid, 43 goal scorer Hughes and 40 goal scorer Nylander..
Marner making significantly more than all the above and only 1.5 less than McDavid (but Marner is on a shorter contract) but he's a worse goal scorer.

Thanks for sharing!

Now let's see his playoff stats too relative to all those players.

I see Jack Hughes 8 million/8 years and former 1st overall pick had 6 goals and 11 points in his first postseason. Marner has scored 7 goals in the last 5 postseason! Damn Hughes got to the second round his first postseason! Well good thing Marner makes just 3 million more than Hughes per year!

So Marner is still getting Matthews his shots. That being said, do we remember the quality of said shots? Is he being setup in prime goal scoring territory? Or does it more resemble a chihuahua dropping a bone while on the run at a heavily populated dog park?

Also, yes, I see you aren't exactly favoring Marner in your post. I wanted to join in WITH you, not against lol.

I have seen Matthews step his game up in the post season. His numbers aren't bad, although they don't jump out at you the way someone like McDavids do.

The guy DOES start to hit more. He DOES battle and DOES finish his checks at a higher % than during the regular season. I'm not sure if the statistics betray me here but the eyeball test tells me this is true. And I haven't missed 1 NHL game of his career (or Marners).

Even Nylander steps it up come post season. Sure he isn't physical but what he excels at, he is damn near perfect at in the post season.

Marner disappears. Like my post now. The end.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Quite right - I missed the 'forwards' part, although that does emphasize how badly imbalanced the team is.
Boston still qualifies as an example, and I'm sure there are others - that's just the first three I looked at.
On the other hand, if you want to look at "players that were not worth a 10m AAV when they were signed", you're proving how bad it is even more, as Matthews is the only one that fits your own criteria.

The team isn't imbalanced at all. We were in fact very balanced in our offense, defense, and goaltending results last year.
Boston does not qualify. Neither Bergeron or Marchand were remotely close to 10m+ players when they signed their contracts.
All of Matthews, Marner, and Tavares were worth 10m+ contracts then they signed their contracts.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

So that makes for the Leafs having both the best ES goal scorer and ES playmaker in the NHL.

You'd think this dynamic combo could figure out a way how to not get "goalie'd" every playoffs I really don't mean to be cynnical but holy f*** am I ever over all this regular season /60 crap stats.


Leafs would 1000% make the playoffs without Marner. Not even a debate really.

lol, it's definitely a debate. Marner made Matthews way better than he was this year - Matthews would've been under a PPG without Marner, same with Tavares - Tavares looked awful for a big stretch, and instantly started putting up points once Marner went on that line. That doesn't even include the PK and defensively either; both which Marner is the best player on the team at. There were multiple stretches where Marner was carrying the team.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You might also want to include all the draft picks Dubas (and ownership and Shanny) threw away by trading them for rentals

1. Trying to win the cup is not "throwing away" draft picks, just because you're not the one team that ends up winning. It's what top tier teams do.
2. While we traded some draft picks, we also got some back, and avoided trading all of our top prospects (which many seem to ignore, as they focus so heavily on picks).
3. We had 5 drafts under Dubas, which is a default of 35 draft picks, and we ended up with 35 draft picks under Dubas. Where those picks were slotted made drafting quality more difficult, but Dubas was able to do it, and add on additional young pieces through other avenues - overseas, college, free agency, etc. to supplement. We drastically improved our prospect pool under Dubas, and we now have a number of prospects in or close to the NHL.
4. There is a lag time on when you draft a prospect and when they provide quality NHL depth. The majority of drafted prospects that would have helped us during Dubas' tenure would have been coming from pre-Dubas drafting, when we were rebuilding and on the rise. Dubas's drafting will primarily impact last year (where we had Knies excelling in the playoffs, Robertson and Holmberg looking good in the regular season, and a bunch of injury fill-ins that held their own) and the next few years.

You can be upset at or concerned about the futures that were moved if you want, but recognize that those deals improved our depth during this past half decade, not hurt it.

And another thing, you get so worked up about the fact that you believe every player should get how much he thinks he’s worth. How much will Matthews and Marner have made on these contracts, how many millions of dollars?

It doesn't matter how much they've made. It doesn't change that they deserve to be treated like everybody else. These are all millionaires, but I'd rather the money go to the millionaires that most help the team and that most generate and earn that money.

If they are unwilling to leave anything on the table, they are all about themselves and not about the team.

Not only is that not true, but they're already leaving millions on the table. Signing a "market value" contract as a top tier player in this league is inherently leaving millions on the table. And yet some fans will never be satisfied. Not exercising their true earning potential, and accepting multi-million dollar underpayments relative to their impact that are consistent with their peers is not enough. They need to give up million on top of that? If anybody is greedy, it's the fans, not the players.

I don’t give a rat’s ass if we end up in the lottery again. It would be worth it to maybe end up with players who were totally committed to winning!

Our players are totally committed to winning. You're not going to get any better by selling off our top tier core and going back into the lottery. You'll just waste a decade and then, if you're lucky, get a lesser core that you'll think the same things about when they don't immediately win or take unprecedented underpayment contracts.

 

[Notsince67]

I mean we probably would've missed the playoffs this year if we didn't have marner, so it'd be kind of funny trading him and then seeing the same group of people that want him traded blame it on other things, without acknowledging losing marner. Trading a top 10 player in franchise history in their prime, probably isn't the play. Might be too high of a iq thing for some posters here to understand though.

Intelligence isn't required for hockey analysis. Just polls and what Steve Dangle thinks.

 

[REALTALK81]

Not a huge fan of trading a 100pt winger who was in the hunt for a Selke.

 

[Pengu]

There is no option to trade as he has a NMC for the last 2 years. His next contract is going to be horrendous...

 

[IPS]

lol, it's definitely a debate. Marner made Matthews way better than he was this year - Matthews would've been under a PPG without Marner, same with Tavares - Tavares looked awful for a big stretch, and instantly started putting up points once Marner went on that line. That doesn't even include the PK and defensively either; both which Marner is the best player on the team at. There were multiple stretches where Marner was carrying the team.

You could remove any one player from this team for a whole season - be it Matthews, Marner or Rielly - and we'd still make the playoffs.

 

[Notsince67]

You could remove any one player from this team for a whole season - be it Matthews, Marner or Rielly - and we'd still make the playoffs.

You sure about that?
The team is 12-13-4 without Marner all time and they made the playoffs every year with him. The evidence certainly doesn't support it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So that makes for the Leafs having both the best ES goal scorer and ES playmaker in the NHL.

You'd think this dynamic combo could figure out a way how to not get "goalie'd" every playoffs I really don't mean to be cynnical but holy f*** am I ever over all this regular season /60 crap stats.

Leafs would 1000% make the playoffs without Marner. Not even a debate really.

I couldn't agree more. There's something pathetic about people posting regular season stats of any kind and praising Marner or anyone else while were in the middle of the most humiliating stretch of playoff disappointments in franchise history.

I watched a lot of games in the 60s and 70s, both live and on tv.

I prefer the game now compared to the gratuitous violence of the "Broad Street Bullies" era, and the "third stoppage in the second period, you send out your knuckle-dragger and I'll send out mine" stupidity of a few years ago.

I still love good clean hits that are part of the play (but not the supposedly mandatory "it was a clean hit but I have to punch you anyway" garbage), and the occasional fight, but I also love the skill plays.

As for the padding, the plastic is much better when you get hit with a puck, but much worse when you get hit with a shoulder.

I'm with you. Love the physicality but the gratuitous violence is pointless and I believe it's bad for the game.

You sure about that?
The team is 12-13-4 without Marner all time and they made the playoffs every year with him. The evidence certainly doesn't support it.

IIRC, the Leafs went on a run when Matthews got hurt, so by your "logic", they're better off without him.

Learn why sample size is important, and think before you post.

 

[IPS]

You sure about that?
The team is 12-13-4 without Marner all time and they made the playoffs every year with him. The evidence certainly doesn't support it.

Yeah actually I'm 100% about that.

I don't think Marner makes the Leafs go from a 110+ point regular season team to a sub-94 point playoff missing team. Records without players in the lineup is a stupid and useless stat - Wings had some hilariously high winning % without Datsyuk in the lineup.

 

[Notsince67]

I couldn't agree more. There's something pathetic about people posting regular season stats of any kind and praising Marner or anyone else while were in the middle of the most humiliating stretch of playoff disappointments in franchise history.


I'm with you. Love the physicality but the gratuitous violence is pointless and I believe it's bad for the game.


IIRC, the Leafs went on a run when Matthews got hurt, so by your "logic", they're better off without him.

Learn why sample size is important, and think before you post.

I pointed out a lack of evidence to a claim. English not your first language?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I pointed out a lack of evidence to a claim. English not your first language?

You posted some numbers and referred to them as "evidence". Your numbers have zero relevance so again, I suggest you educate yourself as so the meaning of sample size.

 

[Notsince67]

You posted some numbers and referred to them as "evidence". Your numbers have zero relevance so again, I suggest you educate yourself as so the meaning of sample size.

You understand my profession is data science right?

 

[Gary Nylund]

You understand my profession is data science right?

If it is, then you should understand that those numbers you posted were crap because of the small sample size.

Maybe your profession is data science, maybe you flip burgers, how would I know? I don't know and I don't care. What I do know is that you're a pretty decent poster until the subject turns to Marner, then you become rude, insulting and in general you go from sounding like a reasonable person to a grade 3 schoolyard bully.

 

[Notsince67]

If it is, then you should understand that those numbers you posted were crap because of the small sample size.

Maybe your profession is data science, maybe you flip burgers, how would I know? I don't know and I don't care. What I do know is that you're a pretty decent poster until the subject turns to Marner, then you become rude, insulting and in general you go from sounding like a reasonable person to a grade 3 schoolyard bully.

So 5% sample of all games are insufficient accourding to you. Educate me precisely what conclusion I made on the insufficient sample size after you describe precisely why you think it is insufficient.
The statement was made that the leafs would make the playoffs without marner. I provided a stat supported by 5% of the games played that diverged from all the games played that concluded there was no data to support that statement. Then YOU go off on sample size. While I am fully versed on the topic of sample size, you now urge me to get educated on it. Educate me Mr. expert. Lets see what kind of chops you actually have.

 

[Arzak]

Not a huge fan of trading a 100pt winger who was in the hunt for a Selke.

He never scored 100 points, yet it's almost mandatory to pretend otherwise here ...

If it was anyone else we would hear how the last season was a fluke and the end of his prime at the same time.

Wannabe 100pt winger, paid like 100pt winger, let's hope he'll live up to his contract next season and finally get that 100+ point season.

 

[ACC1224]

Not a huge fan of trading a 100pt winger who was in the hunt for a Selke.

No one honestly would be, silly notion to even entertain.
Would a 100 point Selke winger be the leagues biggest Unicorn?

 

[Notsince67]

He never scored 100 points, yet it's almost mandatory to pretend otherwise here ...

If it was anyone else we would hear how the last season was a fluke and the end of his prime at the same time.

Wannabe 100pt winger, paid like 100pt winger, let's hope he'll live up to his contract next season and finally get that 100+ point season.

Instead of picking at a technicality, you can make a quick assessment at the last 82 regular season games or the last 164 games played for that matter. He is effectively a 100+ point player. Not sure why you need to disparage his qualitative value on such weak sauce.

No one honestly would be, silly notion to even entertain.
Would a 100 point Selke winger be the leagues biggest Unicorn?

Double unicorn as the best playmaker in the league last year

 

[Suntouchable13]

No one honestly would be, silly notion to even entertain.
Would a 100 point Selke winger be the leagues biggest Unicorn?

Nobody cares how many points he scores in the regular season. I'd take a Mark Stone over him any day of the week. Some unicorn, can only lead his team to 1 playoff series win in 7 years.

 

[Antropovsky]

[

He never scored 100 points, yet it's almost mandatory to pretend otherwise here ...

If it was anyone else we would hear how the last season was a fluke and the end of his prime at the same time.

Wannabe 100pt winger, paid like 100pt winger, let's hope he'll live up to his contract next season and finally get that 100+ point season.

He's paid like a 110-120 point winger and can't break 100.

 

[Arzak]

Instead of picking at a technicality, you can make a quick assessment at the last 82 regular season games or the last 164 games played for that matter. He is effectively a 100+ point player. Not sure why you need to disparage his qualitative value on such weak sauce.


Double unicorn as the best playmaker in the league last year

I checked again just for you, Marner is lacking a single 100-point season, not to mention multiple so we could call him 100pt winger.


Agreed, he plays like a double unicorn in playoffs.

It's hard to watch without asking yourself, what the hell is that unicorn doing out there?

 

[Antropovsky]

Off ice xgoals vs off ice xgoals:

""

Oh, will you look at that? Top setup guy in the NHL.

You know, the guy who sets up Matthews 5 v 5, the guy who sets up Tavares and Nylander on the PP.

Interesting though.... Leafs averaged 32.0 shots on goal in the regular season. Against Florida... 34.8.... more shots... I guess the guys making the passes to setup shots, weren't reducing the number of shots... but the guys who are most responsible for shooting... weren't scoring.

Look at how Marner's stats dropped against Florida... meanwhile, players still getting their shots, Marner is still setting people up... and Matthews goes 0 for 26 in shots in the Series.

In fact, Matthews got more shots per game against Florida, than he's ever averaged in any regular season. Marner was getting him the puck, more often against Florida on average, than in the regular season... but Matthews and his wrist go ZERO for TWENTY SIX... and it's Marner's fault.

Playoff on ice xgoals vs off ice xgoals:

All the highest paid NHL players were at the top of this list. Of the top paid players, Marner is lowest:

Matthews : on ice: 64.8 off ice: 44.9
Nylander: on ice: 64 off ice: 49
Tavares: on ice: 62.6 off ice: 46.9
Marner: on ice: 58.4 off ice: 47.7

Here's a few other high paid players:

Mcdavid: on ice: 61.8 off ice: 41.2
Mackinnon: on ice: 62 off ice: 45.9
Matthew Tkachuk: 62.9 off ice: 36
Kaprizov: 63.9 off ice: 37.8

Playoff stats seem to contradict your thoughts.

 

[thewave]

[
He's paid like a 110-120 point winger and can't break 100.

Our stars are here to get PAID. The NBA guys under the same umbrella know what it's all about and have taught them well.

I am surprised Marner doesn't have his own brand yet lol

 

[Leafs at Knight]

You could remove any one player from this team for a whole season - be it Matthews, Marner or Rielly - and we'd still make the playoffs.

Good argument like usual my man, considering marner had a significantly better season than anyone on the team. Only one somewhat close was nylander who ironically benefited a lot from marner on the pp.