Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

Trade or Keep Marner?

  • Trade Marner

    Votes: 420 67.5%
  • Keep Marner

    Votes: 183 29.4%
  • Other (explain)

    Votes: 19 3.1%

  • Total voters
    622

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
18,029
11,682
I mean Gretzky sucked on the kings game 4, playoffs, against the oilers one year. Didn't say he needed to play better. Should he have?
Okay, now I know what you are saying.

Well he should but at the same time, he already won plenty of personal awards and Cups at that time. Thus, he knows he needed to be better.

My original point is that our guys have not won anything but ONE round of playoffs in the past 5 years since JT signing. That’s horrible and they need to be a lot better if they ever want to win the Cup. Whether or not they say something about it means little if they still can’t produce results in playoffs.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
30,961
24,291
Okay, now I know what you are saying.

Well he should but at the same time, he already won plenty of personal awards and Cups at that time. Thus, he knows he needed to be better.

My original point is that our guys have not won anything but ONE round of playoffs in the past 5 years since JT signing. That’s horrible and they need to be a lot better if they ever want to win the Cup. Whether or not they say something about it means little if they still can’t produce results in playoffs.
Yeah who cares what they say anyway? Marner, Gretzky, whoever. Nobody wins anything for talking, the play is what counts. It's also pretty funny that people need to back decades to Gretzky to find something to defend Marner, that should tell them something right there. I mean, I'm used to Marner putting his foot in his mouth whenever he gets close to a microphone but I don't care, just play the game in the playoffs like you deserve all that money and say whatever you want as far as I'm concerned.

I wish someone would have asked Marner WTF happened in game 3 against Florida.

"Mitch, you looked like a scared rookie playing his first NHL game out there, how would you describe your play tonight"?
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
23,066
27,014
Yeah who cares what they say anyway? Marner, Gretzky, whoever. Nobody wins anything for talking, the play is what counts. It's also pretty funny that people need to back decades to Gretzky to find something to defend Marner, that should tell them something right there. I mean, I'm used to Marner putting his foot in his mouth whenever he gets close to a microphone but I don't care, just play the game in the playoffs like you deserve all that money and say whatever you want as far as I'm concerned.

I wish someone would have asked Marner WTF happened in game 3 against Florida.

"Mitch, you looked like a scared rookie playing his first NHL game out there, how would you describe your play tonight"?
But game 3!!!

1690396466601.png
 
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Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
15,107
6,776
Big question is what would Dangle say after he pitched manscape to the eager fans only because it helps the team.
Your implying Dangle is a fool or less intelligent because he is accepting payment to market a product as an influencer? If anything it's a reflection of his popularity that he's being paid. Who gives a sh-& what he's marketing? Even if he likes manscape and doesn't get paid why does it affect his hockey knowledge?
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,376
11,467
Your implying Dangle is a fool or less intelligent because he is accepting payment to market a product as an influencer? If anything it's a reflection of his popularity that he's being paid. Who gives a sh-& what he's marketing? Even if he likes manscape and doesn't get paid why does it affect his hockey knowledge?
Knowledge gets clicks on Youtube? News to me.
 
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Captain Crunch

Registered User
Mar 31, 2019
2,379
1,699
Okay, now I know what you are saying.

Well he should but at the same time, he already won plenty of personal awards and Cups at that time. Thus, he knows he needed to be better.

My original point is that our guys have not won anything but ONE round of playoffs in the past 5 years since JT signing. That’s horrible and they need to be a lot better if they ever want to win the Cup. Whether or not they say something about it means little if they still can’t produce results in playoffs.
You’re right. They have never taken any ownership for this team’s inability to win some playoff rounds. Personally, I think that’s on Shanahan. He has gone out of his way to protect Matthews and Marner from having to deal with any negativity (remember when Keefe had to retract what he had said about them early in the season?).
 
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slozo

Registered User
Aug 28, 2011
3,602
785
Newmarket, ON
Marner, Matthews, and Tavares yes, but..

Comparing their drop in PPG from regular season to playoffs, in the five seasons they have played together:

Marner 1.22 to 0.92 drop of 30 points
Tavares 0.98 to 0.71 drop of 27 points
Matthews 1.22 to 1.00 drop of 22 points
Nylander 0.88 to 0.86 drop of 2 points
Rielly 0.73 to 0.73 no drop
These are numbers without context. It's a starting point; but just that.

My eye test says, that Marner has been the most valuable of our top 4 F.
Nylander 2nd, surprisingly.
Matthews 3rd.
Tavares 4th.

My humble opinion - Matty is the biggest lag in terms of what we expect and what we get. Has never once looked dominant in a playoff game (came close in a couple of the TB series games this spring for a period or two but with very little to show for it).

Half his points (like Tavares) have been empty calorie points when it either didn't matter or it was too little too late.

All that being said - every year, each matchup brings a totally different result for each player, and it has been demonstrated over and over in the past that occasionally it just takes the right matchup to flourish.

Marner is the engine that drives this bus for me; I'd trade Willy or Matty well before I trade Mitch.
 

notDatsyuk

Registered User
Jul 20, 2018
11,337
9,272
These are numbers without context. It's a starting point; but just that.

My eye test says, that Marner has been the most valuable of our top 4 F.
Nylander 2nd, surprisingly.
Matthews 3rd.
Tavares 4th.

My humble opinion - Matty is the biggest lag in terms of what we expect and what we get. Has never once looked dominant in a playoff game (came close in a couple of the TB series games this spring for a period or two but with very little to show for it).

Half his points (like Tavares) have been empty calorie points when it either didn't matter or it was too little too late.

All that being said - every year, each matchup brings a totally different result for each player, and it has been demonstrated over and over in the past that occasionally it just takes the right matchup to flourish.

Marner is the engine that drives this bus for me; I'd trade Willy or Matty well before I trade Mitch.
The context is just ppg dropoff from regular season to playoffs. The poster I responded to said that all four dropped off significantly, and I just pointed out that, statistically, only three did.

How effective any of them were wasn't really the discussion.

Personally, for this playoffs, I would say Rielly best, then Willy, because he faded the least as the games got tougher, then Mitch, then Matty, and then JT well behind
 

Captain Crunch

Registered User
Mar 31, 2019
2,379
1,699
Stop using bad games or tough luck as a reason to defend our core. As of today, they collectively have not won sh*t. Every year since JT was signed, we all thought, they are going to do, this is the most talented Leafs team in history, best regular season records, they are contenders-just look at the odds….come playoffs, they couldn’t past the first round with JT for four straight years. Then when they finally made it, the played their worst playoffs hockey as Leafs. The Panthers series is the first series during the JT eras where they didn’t make it to a do or die elimination Game7(or Game 5 in the playins).

Individually, they might be great core pieces but collectively they just can’t win in the playoffs. JT is an anchor, while the other three tend to want money over team success(I don’t blame them), the team lacks locker room leaderships.

It will be another year of regular seasons scoring and winning. The hope will always be this is the year…but comes playoffs, there will always be a good chance they will choke again. I want to eat crows next summer but past and recent history is on my side. Which really pains me to say that despite having the most talented Leafs team in our life time, the top guys just couldn’t get it done when it matters the most.

I hope this will change this season but that’s what we all said the past few seasons.
I think where we all have it wrong is when we say this is the most talented Leafs’ team we’ve ever had, which is probably true, but this is not the best “team” we’ve ever had. With the Gilmour-Clark and Roberts-Tucker teams, it certainly seemed like the entire team was committed to doing whatever it took to win a playoff game/series, and players stood up for each other. There was an “us against them” mentality, where you could see that the players cared for each other. This was seen during the regular season, and then amped up even more come the playoffs. I just haven’t seen it with this team.
 
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Captain Crunch

Registered User
Mar 31, 2019
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1,699
I mean... Marner got 14 points in 11 games, playing with Matthews and his damaged wrist. Matthews with a fixed wrist is getting another 4-5 goals in the playoffs, suggesting Marner gets 18 points +, in 11 games. Meanwhile, he's a +7 as is, dominates possession, and plays PK...

y'all are barking up the wrong tree.
Look carefully at when Marner gets the majority of his points, and then how he fades as the series goes on.
 

slozo

Registered User
Aug 28, 2011
3,602
785
Newmarket, ON
The context is just ppg dropoff from regular season to playoffs. The poster I responded to said that all four dropped off significantly, and I just pointed out that, statistically, only three did.

How effective any of them were wasn't really the discussion.

Personally, for this playoffs, I would say Rielly best, then Willy, because he faded the least as the games got tougher, then Mitch, then Matty, and then JT well behind
For me,
Although just looking at the stats Nylander looks good, if watching with context, many of his points were of the empty calorie variety, but that's just from my memory. Same with Matthews.

Marner in my opinion still pushes play, creates, kills penalties obviously - even when not scoring or assisting. I didn't get that same feeling with Matty or Will these last two playoff runs - again, this is just from my memory of the games (not going to rewatch it, lol).
 

Captain Crunch

Registered User
Mar 31, 2019
2,379
1,699
If your motive is to simply find a scapegoat, go at it. If you think scoring at a higher rate in the playoffs, than regular season, isn't elevating your game... go ahead. 18th place in playoff scoring this year, having only played two rounds. The biggest problem wasn't Marner, but go on.
Here’s my personal take on everything. Contracts aren’t based on playoff results, as we all know. There is no denying their talent. But that has led to very very little playoff success, only one playoff round win in 5 years since they added JT. And it has been the same pattern for all those years. They do get points in the playoffs, but those points start drying up the longer the series goes. Also, the secondary scoring has not been there. Would even a little wiggle room in the Cap help? Definitely!

None of us will ever agree on whether they were overpaid on their last contracts, although I have a feeling the majority of us would agree that they were (but again, that’s a moot point). But can you imagine what it would look like to all the fans if they were each willing to leave even a million or so on the table in order to bring in better depth? Especially if it ended up helping them win a few more rounds? They are making lots of money, especially with all their endorsement deals. And yes, it’s their right to want to make as much money as they can. But are you telling me that over the course of their careers they still aren’t going to have a shitload of money by leaving a few million dollars on the table? Can you imagine their legacy here if they did that, and eventually brought TO their first Cup in 57 years? And even if, Heaven forbid they didn’t win a Cup, at least they would have showed that they were all in to do whatever they could to help us finally end this dreaded Cup curse!
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
23,066
27,014
Here’s my personal take on everything. Contracts aren’t based on playoff results, as we all know. There is no denying their talent. But that has led to very very little playoff success, only one playoff round win in 5 years since they added JT. And it has been the same pattern for all those years. They do get points in the playoffs, but those points start drying up the longer the series goes. Also, the secondary scoring has not been there. Would even a little wiggle room in the Cap help? Definitely!

None of us will ever agree on whether they were overpaid on their last contracts, although I have a feeling the majority of us would agree that they were (but again, that’s a moot point). But can you imagine what it would look like to all the fans if they were each willing to leave even a million or so on the table in order to bring in better depth? Especially if it ended up helping them win a few more rounds? They are making lots of money, especially with all their endorsement deals. And yes, it’s their right to want to make as much money as they can. But are you telling me that over the course of their careers they still aren’t going to have a shitload of money by leaving a few million dollars on the table? Can you imagine their legacy here if they did that, and eventually brought TO their first Cup in 57 years? And even if, Heaven forbid they didn’t win a Cup, at least they would have showed that they were all in to do whatever they could to help us finally end this dreaded Cup curse!

I doubt anyone would disagree with this. On their first contracts, I think Matthews was overpaid by $500k and Marner about $1.5 mil. Nylander and Tavares were market.

RIght now the four account for $40.505 mil. If we could get Matthews at $12, Marner at $11.5, Nylander at $9 and Tavares at $5 it would actually be less cap overall than now, while they all get raises.. except JT. I think with these contracts, it would give the flexibility you speak of, and I think most fans would be good with these numbers.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
21,133
15,877
Here’s my personal take on everything. Contracts aren’t based on playoff results, as we all know. There is no denying their talent. But that has led to very very little playoff success, only one playoff round win in 5 years since they added JT. And it has been the same pattern for all those years. They do get points in the playoffs, but those points start drying up the longer the series goes. Also, the secondary scoring has not been there. Would even a little wiggle room in the Cap help? Definitely!

None of us will ever agree on whether they were overpaid on their last contracts, although I have a feeling the majority of us would agree that they were (but again, that’s a moot point). But can you imagine what it would look like to all the fans if they were each willing to leave even a million or so on the table in order to bring in better depth? Especially if it ended up helping them win a few more rounds? They are making lots of money, especially with all their endorsement deals. And yes, it’s their right to want to make as much money as they can. But are you telling me that over the course of their careers they still aren’t going to have a shitload of money by leaving a few million dollars on the table? Can you imagine their legacy here if they did that, and eventually brought TO their first Cup in 57 years? And even if, Heaven forbid they didn’t win a Cup, at least they would have showed that they were all in to do whatever they could to help us finally end this dreaded Cup curse!
Or, they take discounts, give up millions of dollars, and half the fans still complain that they're overpaid and berate them and call them greedy pigs that don't care because it's not a super de duper discount and look at X player that broke out post-signing and makes less. They signed average contracts last time, and it didn't stop a half decade of a bunch of people incorrectly claiming that they got dramatic unprecedented overpayments. The likely outcome of discounts is the GM wastes that couple million on overpaying a mid-tier player that brings a fraction of their impact and the chance of winning doesn't change at all. That's the most likely outcome. They get underpaid so that somebody else who already gets paid more relative to their impact gets more overpaid.

Are you going up to your boss at work and telling them to pay you less? Why not? Don't you care about where you work? Don't you care about your coworkers? Don't you care about the customers that use your business? Why are we not sitting here telling Kampf to take a million less per year? Does he not want to help the team? Does he not want to leave a legacy? He'd still get paid more than enough to live a lavish lifestyle, right? So who cares about his money, right?

If Matthews and Marner and Nylander take less, why not take even less than that, right? Why not just demand that they take a league minimum contract? Where's the line? Matthews and Marner and Nylander and Tavares are already taking millions less than they could earn if they really chased their maximum earning potential or if top tier players got properly compensated in this league for their impacts.

It's easy to sit at home, raking in all of the money you feel you earned at your job, and tell other employees (who spent decades making sacrifices, getting injured, and training a specific skill that limits their earning potential post-career and generates billions in revenue) to give up millions of dollars at theirs and not be paid consistent with their peers, just because you're impatient for something from the business that employs them.
 

Captain Crunch

Registered User
Mar 31, 2019
2,379
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I doubt anyone would disagree with this. On their first contracts, I think Matthews was overpaid by $500k and Marner about $1.5 mil. Nylander and Tavares were market.

RIght now the four account for $40.505 mil. If we could get Matthews at $12, Marner at $11.5, Nylander at $9 and Tavares at $5 it would actually be less cap overall than now, while they all get raises.. except JT. I think with these contracts, it would give the flexibility you speak of, and I think most fans would be good with these numbers.
Even if we gave Matthews $12.7 million, just to make him the highest paid player in the league, I’d be okay with that as well.
 
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Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,376
11,467
I doubt anyone would disagree with this. On their first contracts, I think Matthews was overpaid by $500k and Marner about $1.5 mil. Nylander and Tavares were market.

RIght now the four account for $40.505 mil. If we could get Matthews at $12, Marner at $11.5, Nylander at $9 and Tavares at $5 it would actually be less cap overall than now, while they all get raises.. except JT. I think with these contracts, it would give the flexibility you speak of, and I think most fans would be good with these numbers.
At your cap, evolving hockey has marner at bellow 4 yrs term, Matthews at around 4 yrs and Willy at just below 6 years.
Not the ideal situation IMO
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
23,066
27,014
At your cap, evolving hockey has marner at bellow 4 yrs term, Matthews at around 4 yrs and Willy at just below 6 years.
Not the ideal situation IMO

Just do 5 years for all of them. If they can't get it done in five more years, it doesn't really matter anyway. Enough time for the cap to go up, and at the end of the five years, if this group still can't get it done, with more cap to allocate to a better supporting cast... it's never going to happen.
 

Captain Crunch

Registered User
Mar 31, 2019
2,379
1,699
Or, they take discounts, give up millions of dollars, and half the fans still complain that they're overpaid and berate them and call them greedy pigs that don't care because it's not a super de duper discount and look at X player that broke out post-signing and makes less. They signed average contracts last time, and it didn't stop a half decade of a bunch of people incorrectly claiming that they got dramatic unprecedented overpayments. The likely outcome of discounts is the GM wastes that couple million on overpaying a mid-tier player that brings a fraction of their impact and the chance of winning doesn't change at all. That's the most likely outcome. They get underpaid so that somebody else who already gets paid more relative to their impact gets more overpaid.

Are you going up to your boss at work and telling them to pay you less? Why not? Don't you care about where you work? Don't you care about your coworkers? Don't you care about the customers that use your business? Why are we not sitting here telling Kampf to take a million less per year? Does he not want to help the team? Does he not want to leave a legacy? He'd still get paid more than enough to live a lavish lifestyle, right? So who cares about his money, right?

If Matthews and Marner and Nylander take less, why not take even less than that, right? Why not just demand that they take a league minimum contract? Where's the line? Matthews and Marner and Nylander and Tavares are already taking millions less than they could earn if they really chased their maximum earning potential or if top tier players got properly compensated in this league for their impacts.

It's easy to sit at home, raking in all of the money you feel you earned at your job, and tell other employees (who spent decades making sacrifices, getting injured, and training a specific skill that limits their earning potential post-career and generates billions in revenue) to give up millions of dollars at theirs and not be paid consistent with their peers, just because you're impatient for something from the business that employs them.
Asking my boss, where I make in the tens of thousands dollars a year in no way compares to the millions they’re making. That’s just absurd! And my point is all about winning.
And it’s unfair to compare Kampf and what he makes (yes, I also think he’s overpaid, but that’s on Shanny) to the tens of millions they’re making.
As far as whether the right players would be brought in, that’s also on Shanny, as well as Tre. But at least they would be able to maybe acquire better complimentary players.
Yes, it’s just my opinion, but I really believe by them leaving some money on the table this time, at least it shows they are willing to do what they can to help this team get over that hump.
Yes, no matter what they do, there will still be some fans calling them greedy, but I feel there would be far fewer fans doing that (and I know that doesn’t faze them one bit either way).
I have probably sounded way too often that I’m putting all the blame on them. If so, I take it back. It’s ultimately up to ownership where they need to draw the line in the sand. Ownership (and Shanny and Dubas) did a poor job in those negotiations the last time around, or at least they overestimated how good this team could be come playoff time, as in having the strongest supporting cast possible to help with the added intensity that comes with the playoffs. I would also like to mention here that I think the way the league throws away the rule book in the playoffs is a huge joke! Skill is what you want to see in hockey, even moreso in the playoffs, but the idiot who runs the league likes it the way it is.
And to say demand that they just take league minimum, you’re really going overboard (yes, I know exactly what you meant, but even to say that? You’re really grasping at straws here trying to defend them)!
So to sum it all up, what you’re saying is that EVERY NHL player should be paid as much as they think they deserve/are worth. How well would that work in this Cap system?
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,376
11,467
Just do 5 years for all of them. If they can't get it done in five more years, it doesn't really matter anyway. Enough time for the cap to go up, and at the end of the five years, if this group still can't get it done, with more cap to allocate to a better supporting cast... it's never going to happen.
I could buy into 5 yrs. Too bad Willy and Matty's term didnt end with Marners to create a mass negotiation with maximum pressure. Short sighted of Dubas.
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
16,376
11,467
And how many years do you think Matthews is looking at, and probably Marner next year?
I don't think Matty is up for max term. Probably 5. Marner might be coaxed into an 8. I really wish I knew the evolving hockey model variables because the term flows are fascinating. Definitely not scaled upwards linearly every year with every player. Some dip on one year and rise the next. Variability is common in models but it is difficult to understand whether there are some overweighted variables. I suspect that included in the model is the timing of the cap increases. Early birds will definitely get the worm from a contract perspective. I suspect agents know this as well.
There are a lot of factors in contract negotiations today that weren't around in yesteryear.
 

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