Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[ACC1224]

I could buy into 5 yrs. Too bad Willy and Matty's term didnt end with Marners to create a mass negotiation with maximum pressure. Short sighted of Dubas.

Bolded seems to be a theme.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Asking my boss, where I make in the tens of thousands dollars a year in no way compares to the millions they’re making. That’s just absurd! And my point is all about winning.
And it’s unfair to compare Kampf and what he makes (yes, I also think he’s overpaid, but that’s on Shanny) to the tens of millions they’re making.

How much somebody makes doesn't matter when discussing whether somebody should make what they've earned and earn the same relative to their impact as everybody else. I'm sure you could live a comfortable life with a little bit less. I'm sure Kampf could live a comfortable life with a little bit less. He would still make more than 99+% of people. So why is it all on the ones who are already underpaid relative to their impact to take even less so millionaires and billionaires who are actually overpaid relative to their impact on the ice and business can make more?

As far as whether the right players would be brought in, that’s also on Shanny, as well as Tre. But at least they would be able to maybe acquire better complimentary players.

They'd be able to pay a bit more for complimentary players. That doesn't mean that they will be better, or that it will help them win a cup. It's just reallocating millions from millionaires that drive the majority of our team's results and revenues to less deserving millionaires and billionaires that would help us the same as a bunch of less expensive options.

So to sum it all up, what you’re saying is that EVERY NHL player should be paid as much as they think they deserve/are worth. How well would that work in this Cap system?

Every NHL player should be allowed to earn a salary that is consistent with their quality and impact relative to their peers, without being berated and called greedy pigs by their fans. That would work in a cap system exactly how it works now.

 

[Captain Crunch]

How much somebody makes doesn't matter when discussing whether somebody should make what they've earned and earn the same relative to their impact as everybody else. I'm sure you could live a comfortable life with a little bit less. I'm sure Kampf could live a comfortable life with a little bit less. He would still make more than 99+% of people. So why is it all on the ones who are already underpaid relative to their impact to take even less so millionaires and billionaires who are actually overpaid relative to their impact on the ice and business can make more?

They'd be able to pay a bit more for complimentary players. That doesn't mean that they will be better, or that it will help them win a cup. It's just reallocating millions from millionaires that drive the majority of our team's results and revenues to less deserving millionaires and billionaires that would help us the same as a bunch of less expensive options.

Every NHL player should be allowed to earn a salary that is consistent with their quality and impact relative to their peers, without being berated and called greedy pigs by their fans. That would work in a cap system exactly how it works now.

This cap system is for the purpose of building parity in the league, which it is accomplishing. How owners and management decide to divide it up is up to them. Has it worked for us, yes, if you look at regular season results, but it has not worked when it comes to playoffs. Surely you can’t deny this! As I mentioned in another post (where I really messed up using Capfriendly), we are the only team in the league with 3 forwards making more than $10 million. That just hasn’t left enough to build up the proper depth.

Just because ownership, Shanahan, and Dubas messed up the last contract negotiations, doesn’t mean they need to keep doing it. You and I will never agree on those contracts, and that’s okay because we are just 2 people with our own opinions.*

 

[Dekes For Days]

This cap system is for the purpose of building parity in the league, which it is accomplishing. How owners and management decide to divide it up is up to them. Has it worked for us, yes, if you look at regular season results, but it has not worked when it comes to playoffs. Surely you can’t deny this! As I mentioned in another post (where I really messed up using Capfriendly), we are the only team in the league with 3 forwards making more than $10 million. That just hasn’t left enough to build up the proper depth.

Just because ownership, Shanahan, and Dubas messed up the last contract negotiations, doesn’t mean they need to keep doing it. You and I will never agree on those contracts, and that’s okay because we are just 2 people with our own opinions.*

Nobody messed up the last contract negotiations. The contracts were perfectly fine, and consistent with their peers. Nobody else has three 10m+ forwards because nobody else had the opportunity to have three forwards worth 10m+ contracts. That does not make having them wrong. There is no one way or cap allocation to win. There are countless different ways to win, and different cap allocations that can win. Ours can win, and the fact that it hasn't yet doesn't change that. You attribute the outcomes you see to the cap allocation because that's what you want it to be about, but that's not what it has been about.

We're also not keeping this cap allocation either way, because this cap allocation only exists as a result of the cap stagnating for multiple years for the first time in history due to a global pandemic creating a billion+ dollar player debt that was "fixed" by temporarily changing how the cap was set, not a result of paying our stars appropriate amounts.

Our depth hasn't actually been bad, but if you wanted better depth, you should be looking at the pre-Dubas rebuild drafting that should have been providing cheap ELCs for us during his tenure, or our top drafted prospect getting cancer, or the unexpected cap freeze that took away millions of dollars for depth, or just getting better depth at the prices we're spending, not paying similar quality depth more money by stealing it away from the players that are already comparatively underpaid in this league.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nobody messed up the last contract negotiations. The contracts were perfectly fine, and consistent with their peers. Nobody else has three 10m+ forwards because nobody else had the opportunity to have three forwards worth 10m+ contracts. That does not make having them wrong. There is no one way or cap allocation to win. There are countless different ways to win, and different cap allocations that can win. Ours can win, and the fact that it hasn't yet doesn't change that. You attribute the outcomes you see to the cap allocation because that's what you want it to be about, but that's not what it has been about.

We're also not keeping this cap allocation either way, because this cap allocation only exists as a result of the cap stagnating for multiple years for the first time in history due to a global pandemic creating a billion+ dollar player debt that was "fixed" by temporarily changing how the cap was set, not a result of paying our stars appropriate amounts.

Our depth hasn't actually been bad, but if you wanted better depth, you should be looking at the pre-Dubas rebuild drafting that should have been providing cheap ELCs for us during his tenure, or our top drafted prospect getting cancer, or the unexpected cap freeze that took away millions of dollars for depth, or just getting better depth at the prices we're spending, not paying similar quality depth more money by stealing it away from the players that are already comparatively underpaid in this league.

Lots of teams could have three $10M contracts:

Edmonton could have paid Drai and Nurse $10M each, but didn't.
Boston could have paid Marchand, Bergeron and McAvoy $10M each, but didn't.
Tampa could have paid Kucherov, Point, and Vasi $10M each, but didn't.

Just because Dubas did, doesn't make it right.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Nobody messed up the last contract negotiations. The contracts were perfectly fine, and consistent with their peers. Nobody else has three 10m+ forwards because nobody else had the opportunity to have three forwards worth 10m+ contracts. That does not make having them wrong. There is no one way or cap allocation to win. There are countless different ways to win, and different cap allocations that can win. Ours can win, and the fact that it hasn't yet doesn't change that. You attribute the outcomes you see to the cap allocation because that's what you want it to be about, but that's not what it has been about.

We're also not keeping this cap allocation either way, because this cap allocation only exists as a result of the cap stagnating for multiple years for the first time in history due to a global pandemic creating a billion+ dollar player debt that was "fixed" by temporarily changing how the cap was set, not a result of paying our stars appropriate amounts.

Our depth hasn't actually been bad, but if you wanted better depth, you should be looking at the pre-Dubas rebuild drafting that should have been providing cheap ELCs for us during his tenure, or our top drafted prospect getting cancer, or the unexpected cap freeze that took away millions of dollars for depth, or just getting better depth at the prices we're spending, not paying similar quality depth more money by stealing it away from the players that are already comparatively underpaid in this league.

You might also want to include all the draft picks Dubas (and ownership and Shanny) threw away by trading them for rentals, with only one playoff round win in 5 tries.

And another thing, you get so worked up about the fact that you believe every player should get how much he thinks he’s worth. How much will Matthews and Marner have made on these contracts, how many millions of dollars? Not to mention all the endorsement money. If they are unwilling to leave anything on the table, they are all about themselves and not about the team. When you’re going to have made in the hundreds of millions of dollars in your career, the fact that you want every last nickel you can get, is pretty sad and speaks volumes about their character. Even if they both had to stop playing after these contracts, you’re telling me they’re not already set to live a very comfortable lifestyle?

That is my opinion, which I know is shared by many! I will always cheer for this team, even if it continues to be run by people who seemingly only care about making a huge profit, ie. Rogers and Bell. But I will not cheer for any player who is only looking out for his best interests and who appears to not be willing to make any sacrifice whatsoever to help the team.

And one other thing, if they don’t believe management is doing whatever they can to build a winner, then they need to look for another team. I don’t give a rat’s ass if we end up in the lottery again. It would be worth it to maybe end up with players who were totally committed to winning!

 

[mydnyte]

isnt this thread pointless now that his NMC has kicked in

 

[ACC1224]

isnt this thread pointless now that his NMC has kicked in

Yep, close it up.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I don't think Matty is up for max term. Probably 5. Marner might be coaxed into an 8. I really wish I knew the evolving hockey model variables because the term flows are fascinating. Definitely not scaled upwards linearly every year with every player. Some dip on one year and rise the next. Variability is common in models but it is difficult to understand whether there are some overweighted variables. I suspect that included in the model is the timing of the cap increases. Early birds will definitely get the worm from a contract perspective. I suspect agents know this as well.
There are a lot of factors in contract negotiations today that weren't around in yesteryear.

For me personally, it’s more about how much they’re going to get, rather than how long the term is for. There’s no doubt Matthews is going to be the highest paid player in the league when he resigns, but how much does that have to be? Are you telling me he would be insulted if they offered him $12.7 million, maybe up to $13 million? Does it always have to be management that gives in?

I cheer for the crest on front, not the name on back. If ownership wants to basically let Matthews fill in the amount, that’s their choice. However, their plan on contract amounts hasn’t worked so far, and no, that doesn’t mean it won’t. Only time will tell, but the clock is ticking. How many more years will we see these two perform at the level they have? Don’t the majority of players peak somewhere between 24-28 or so? And yes, unfortunately past performance plays a big part when it’s time to negotiate. I think most will agree we overpaid Tavares thinking we would win sometime before he started to decline. Has he fallen off a cliff, certainly not, but his foot speed is not getting any better, and will he now become a LWer rather than continue as a center? Are we going to be doing the same with Matthews and Marner?

 

[Notsince67]

For me personally, it’s more about how much they’re going to get, rather than how long the term is for. There’s no doubt Matthews is going to be the highest paid player in the league when he resigns, but how much does that have to be? Are you telling me he would be insulted if they offered him $12.7 million, maybe up to $13 million? Does it always have to be management that gives in?

I cheer for the crest on front, not the name on back. If ownership wants to basically let Matthews fill in the amount, that’s their choice. However, their plan on contract amounts hasn’t worked so far, and no, that doesn’t mean it won’t. Only time will tell, but the clock is ticking. How many more years will we see these two perform at the level they have? Don’t the majority of players peak somewhere between 24-28 or so? And yes, unfortunately past performance plays a big part when it’s time to negotiate. I think most will agree we overpaid Tavares thinking we would win sometime before he started to decline. Has he fallen off a cliff, certainly not, but his foot speed is not getting any better, and will he now become a LWer rather than continue as a center? Are we going to be doing the same with Matthews and Marner?

I think there is more to worry if they improve a lot more before a new contract gets signed.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think there is more to worry if they improve a lot more before a new contract gets signed.

Good point. If Matthews wants 13.5 million after finishing 22nd overall in scoring, there's no telling what his demands might be if improved on that, never mind Marner. Scary to think about!

 

[Fogelhund]

""

Oh, will you look at that? Top setup guy in the NHL.

You know, the guy who sets up Matthews 5 v 5, the guy who sets up Tavares and Nylander on the PP.

Interesting though.... Leafs averaged 32.0 shots on goal in the regular season. Against Florida... 34.8.... more shots... I guess the guys making the passes to setup shots, weren't reducing the number of shots... but the guys who are most responsible for shooting... weren't scoring.

Look at how Marner's stats dropped against Florida... meanwhile, players still getting their shots, Marner is still setting people up... and Matthews goes 0 for 26 in shots in the Series.

In fact, Matthews got more shots per game against Florida, than he's ever averaged in any regular season. Marner was getting him the puck, more often against Florida on average, than in the regular season... but Matthews and his wrist go ZERO for TWENTY SIX... and it's Marner's fault.

 

[Captain Crunch]

""

Oh, will you look at that? Top setup guy in the NHL.

You know, the guy who sets up Matthews 5 v 5, the guy who sets up Tavares and Nylander on the PP.

Interesting though.... Leafs averaged 32.0 shots on goal in the regular season. Against Florida... 34.8.... more shots... I guess the guys making the passes to setup shots, weren't reducing the number of shots... but the guys who are most responsible for shooting... weren't scoring.

Look at how Marner's stats dropped against Florida... meanwhile, players still getting their shots, Marner is still setting people up... and Matthews goes 0 for 26 in shots in the Series.

In fact, Matthews got more shots per game against Florida, than he's ever averaged in any regular season. Marner was getting him the puck, more often against Florida on average, than in the regular season... but Matthews and his wrist go ZERO for TWENTY SIX... and it's Marner's fault.

Yup, it certainly does appear that Matthews was not cashing in on those passes. Care to look back in other playoffs and see if Mr. Wonderful ever screwed up? You might be surprised.

 

[Notsince67]

""

Oh, will you look at that? Top setup guy in the NHL.

You know, the guy who sets up Matthews 5 v 5, the guy who sets up Tavares and Nylander on the PP.

Interesting though.... Leafs averaged 32.0 shots on goal in the regular season. Against Florida... 34.8.... more shots... I guess the guys making the passes to setup shots, weren't reducing the number of shots... but the guys who are most responsible for shooting... weren't scoring.

Look at how Marner's stats dropped against Florida... meanwhile, players still getting their shots, Marner is still setting people up... and Matthews goes 0 for 26 in shots in the Series.

In fact, Matthews got more shots per game against Florida, than he's ever averaged in any regular season. Marner was getting him the puck, more often against Florida on average, than in the regular season... but Matthews and his wrist go ZERO for TWENTY SIX... and it's Marner's fault.

OK. Now he moves to overpaid by 1.5mm instead of 2mm says the braintrust.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I think there is more to worry if they improve a lot more before a new contract gets signed.

Wouldn’t matter. Won’t they still be wanting nice raises regardless?

 

[Gary Nylund]

""

Oh, will you look at that? Top setup guy in the NHL.

You know, the guy who sets up Matthews 5 v 5, the guy who sets up Tavares and Nylander on the PP.

Interesting though.... Leafs averaged 32.0 shots on goal in the regular season. Against Florida... 34.8.... more shots... I guess the guys making the passes to setup shots, weren't reducing the number of shots... but the guys who are most responsible for shooting... weren't scoring.

Look at how Marner's stats dropped against Florida... meanwhile, players still getting their shots, Marner is still setting people up... and Matthews goes 0 for 26 in shots in the Series.

In fact, Matthews got more shots per game against Florida, than he's ever averaged in any regular season. Marner was getting him the puck, more often against Florida on average, than in the regular season... but Matthews and his wrist go ZERO for TWENTY SIX... and it's Marner's fault.

Leafs shots per game isn't a Marner stat so doesn't really fit together with whatever is in that picture. Marner's great in the regular season though, I think we all agree there.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lots of teams could have three $10M contracts:
Edmonton could have paid Drai and Nurse $10M each, but didn't.
Boston could have paid Marchand, Bergeron and McAvoy $10M each, but didn't.
Tampa could have paid Kucherov, Point, and Vasi $10M each, but didn't.

For the record, I said "Nobody else has three 10m+ forwards because nobody else had the opportunity to have three forwards worth 10m+ contracts.".
And you come to be with a bunch of defensemen and goalies? And a bunch of players that were not worth a 10m AAV when they signed?
Yes, theoretically any team could go out and sign any 3 random players to 10m AAV contracts, but you seem to have missed the point.

 

[Notsince67]

Leafs shots per game isn't a Marner stat so doesn't really fit together with whatever is in that picture. Marner's great in the regular season though, I think we all agree there.

Nice try whatever you were trying to say. Skate Gary...skate!

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I mean we probably would've missed the playoffs this year if we didn't have marner, so it'd be kind of funny trading him and then seeing the same group of people that want him traded blame it on other things, without acknowledging losing marner. Trading a top 10 player in franchise history in their prime, probably isn't the play. Might be too high of a iq thing for some posters here to understand though.

 

[IPS]

So that makes for the Leafs having both the best ES goal scorer and ES playmaker in the NHL.

You'd think this dynamic combo could figure out a way how to not get "goalie'd" every playoffs I really don't mean to be cynnical but holy f*** am I ever over all this regular season /60 crap stats.

I mean we probably would've missed the playoffs this year if we didn't have marner, so it'd be kind of funny trading him and then seeing the same group of people that want him traded blame it on other things, without acknowledging losing marner. Trading a top 10 player in franchise history in their prime, probably isn't the play. Might be too high of a iq thing for some posters here to understand though.

Leafs would 1000% make the playoffs without Marner. Not even a debate really.

 

[notDatsyuk]

""

Oh, will you look at that? Top setup guy in the NHL.

You know, the guy who sets up Matthews 5 v 5, the guy who sets up Tavares and Nylander on the PP.

Interesting though.... Leafs averaged 32.0 shots on goal in the regular season. Against Florida... 34.8.... more shots... I guess the guys making the passes to setup shots, weren't reducing the number of shots... but the guys who are most responsible for shooting... weren't scoring.

Look at how Marner's stats dropped against Florida... meanwhile, players still getting their shots, Marner is still setting people up... and Matthews goes 0 for 26 in shots in the Series.

In fact, Matthews got more shots per game against Florida, than he's ever averaged in any regular season. Marner was getting him the puck, more often against Florida on average, than in the regular season... but Matthews and his wrist go ZERO for TWENTY SIX... and it's Marner's fault.

I see that chart is 5v5, which I believe doesn't include PP. It's also most likely regular season.

Interesting to see who is #6 on that list.

 

[notDatsyuk]

For the record, I said "Nobody else has three 10m+ forwards because nobody else had the opportunity to have three forwards worth 10m+ contracts.".
And you come to be with a bunch of defensemen and goalies? And a bunch of players that were not worth a 10m AAV when they signed?
Yes, theoretically any team could go out and sign any 3 random players to 10m AAV contracts, but you seem to have missed the point.

Quite right - I missed the 'forwards' part, although that does emphasize how badly imbalanced the team is.

Boston still qualifies as an example, and I'm sure there are others - that's just the first three I looked at.

On the other hand, if you want to look at "players that were not worth a 10m AAV when they were signed", you're proving how bad it is even more, as Matthews is the only one that fits your own criteria.

 

[Frostitute]

100 yrs eh? Did you watch hockey back in the 60’s?
No other sport changes it’s rules in playoffs .

But yeah…let’s not try to make the game better…evolve with bigger and faster athletes.

The NFL didn’t evolve and the NBA didn’t I guess either or MLB for that matter eh?

what a crock of a excuse.

Hasn’t changed in 100 yrs so let’s keep on doing it. Rock and sock’em Don Cherry minions want the MMA in hockey and then proclaim its “heart”


Let’s promote our goons instead of our stars and no wonder viewership is down.

We should all go back to cloth shoulder pads and elbow pads…no helmets as “real” men don’t need armour.

Guess Olympic hockey is terrible hockey …you know where we bring our stars to shine. Bigger ice etc. You don’t have goons trying to chop you down because they can’t skate.

Not a great way to start your post referencing my 100yrs comment and then asking if I watched hockey in the 60s? Lol. Actually yes I've watched a few games from that era (and most actually) on tape since I am a complete hockey nerd.

Hockey is a different animal and I believe that is why most of us love it. Is Olympic/Internation hockey great? Sure. For different reasons in modern times. But acting like it contains no grit is foolish. Have YOU watched games from the 70s?

When fights break out or a game is played with giant hits going back and forth do you think the viewership/ratings drop? I don't. People call there friends and ask "are you seeing this?". I know me and mine do.

If you prefer a game with pure skill and no fighting/hitting why not support the womens leagues? Not trying to offend, they play a great game and are talented but also play a game that seems to suit what you are looking for better.

And about the equipment...I actually think they should go back to more padding and less plastics etc. Have you played? That stuff hurts waaaay more than it saves.

Anyways, we clearly have very, very different opinions on how the game should be played etc etc but bottom line we all cheer for the same team so have a good day and go Leafs go.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not a great way to start your post referencing my 100yrs comment and then asking if I watched hockey in the 60s? Lol. Actually yes I've watched a few games from that era (and most actually) on tape since I am a complete hockey nerd.

Hockey is a different animal and I believe that is why most of us love it. Is Olympic/Internation hockey great? Sure. For different reasons in modern times. But acting like it contains no grit is foolish. Have YOU watched games from the 70s?

When fights break out or a game is played with giant hits going back and forth do you think the viewership/ratings drop? I don't. People call there friends and ask "are you seeing this?". I know me and mine do.

If you prefer a game with pure skill and no fighting/hitting why not support the womens leagues? Not trying to offend, they play a great game and are talented but also play a game that seems to suit what you are looking for better.

And about the equipment...I actually think they should go back to more padding and less plastics etc. Have you played? That stuff hurts waaaay more than it saves.

Anyways, we clearly have very, very different opinions on how the game should be played etc etc but bottom line we all cheer for the same team so have a good day and go Leafs go.

I watched a lot of games in the 60s and 70s, both live and on tv.

I prefer the game now compared to the gratuitous violence of the "Broad Street Bullies" era, and the "third stoppage in the second period, you send out your knuckle-dragger and I'll send out mine" stupidity of a few years ago.

I still love good clean hits that are part of the play (but not the supposedly mandatory "it was a clean hit but I have to punch you anyway" garbage), and the occasional fight, but I also love the skill plays.

As for the padding, the plastic is much better when you get hit with a puck, but much worse when you get hit with a shoulder.

 

[Antropovsky]

""

Oh, will you look at that? Top setup guy in the NHL.

You know, the guy who sets up Matthews 5 v 5, the guy who sets up Tavares and Nylander on the PP.

Interesting though.... Leafs averaged 32.0 shots on goal in the regular season. Against Florida... 34.8.... more shots... I guess the guys making the passes to setup shots, weren't reducing the number of shots... but the guys who are most responsible for shooting... weren't scoring.

Look at how Marner's stats dropped against Florida... meanwhile, players still getting their shots, Marner is still setting people up... and Matthews goes 0 for 26 in shots in the Series.

In fact, Matthews got more shots per game against Florida, than he's ever averaged in any regular season. Marner was getting him the puck, more often against Florida on average, than in the regular season... but Matthews and his wrist go ZERO for TWENTY SIX... and it's Marner's fault.

He is just above superstar Kevin Fiala! Just behind Marner is 64 goal scorer Mcdavid, 43 goal scorer Hughes and 40 goal scorer Nylander..
Marner making significantly more than all the above and only 1.5 less than McDavid (but Marner is on a shorter contract) but he's a worse goal scorer.

Thanks for sharing!

Now let's see his playoff stats too relative to all those players.

I see Jack Hughes 8 million/8 years and former 1st overall pick had 6 goals and 11 points in his first postseason. Marner has scored 7 goals in the last 5 postseason! Damn Hughes got to the second round his first postseason! Well good thing Marner makes just 3 million more than Hughes per year!