Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[TheDoldrums]

......... And again. They beat the Leafs in the playoffs. So, what does that say about the Leafs? Especially considering that they blew a 3-1 lead to them.

It says that the Leafs choke in the playoffs. Montreal isn't good enough to make the playoffs. So why do they matter?

 

[Trapper]

It’s been 7 years. That statement no longer applies.

For the sake of a trade.
2024 will be 10 years since we drafted Nylander.
The only sake that’s left is for f***’s sake

 

[Gabriel426]

So basically another year of playoff failure.
I doubt anything will change until the Tavares nightmare contract ends

Agree 100%

 

[Mess]

If Marner would do this, he would change a lot of opinions thats for sure and I would certainly be impressed, but there is no chance in hell he does that, zilch, nada, no way no how.

I agree and that really should be the basis then for Leafs current management to make a good business decisions on behalf of the organization on..

If you give Marner that opportunity in discussions with him and his agent, and they double down (which I think 98% of people would expect) that he is looking for a raise not paycut then the path becomes clearer that keeping him becomes simply making the original contract mistake larger.

Were the Leafs do have some leverage, is they know Marner wants to remain a Leaf as a local kid & with the switching of the GM the new guy is no longer obligated to the past GM evaluation and can provide his own.

Its a pipe dream to believe these players are going to be reasonable this time around.

 

[Notsince67]

It’s not fantasizing. It happened 2 years ago. Lol.

Who is the Habs replacing in the playoffs, or have u played out this delusion to the end yet?

 

[Notsince67]

You go ahead and cling to those stats all you want.

GAR and xGAR? Why am I supposed to care about that stat? Were those some of the same stats that said Timo Meier > Marner a few years back?

Because you really can't measure on ice impact easily unless you show chances for and against generated in some way...and no it wasnt.

 

[ACC1224]

I agree and that really should be the basis then for Leafs current management to make a good business decisions on behalf of the organization on..

If you give Marner that opportunity in discussions with him and his agent, and they double down (which I think 98% of people would expect) that he is looking for a raise not paycut then the path becomes clearer that keeping him becomes simply making the original contract mistake larger.

Were the Leafs do have some leverage, is they know Marner wants to remain a Leaf as a local kid & with the switching of the GM the new guy is no longer obligated to the past GM evaluation and can provide his own.

Its a pipe dream to believe these players are going to be reasonable this time around.

Are there any examples of young players league wide who have gotten better every year that have taken a pay cut as a UFA?

 

[Trapper]

I agree and that really should be the basis then for Leafs current management to make a good business decisions on behalf of the organization on..

If you give Marner that opportunity in discussions with him and his agent, and they double down (which I think 98% of people would expect) that he is looking for a raise not paycut then the path becomes clearer that keeping him becomes simply making the original contract mistake larger.

Were the Leafs do have some leverage, is they know Marner wants to remain a Leaf as a local kid & with the switching of the GM the new guy is no longer obligated to the past GM evaluation and can provide his own.

Its a pipe dream to believe these players are going to be reasonable this time around.

Matthews is on a mission to become a 200 million dollar player.
Crosby is 36 years old and holds a total earning of 159 million to date.
Matthews at 26, working on a 13 mil x 5 year deal will be at 130 million to date. Or possibly 14 million.
There will be no discount.

 

[Mess]

Are there any examples of young players league wide who have gotten better every year that have taken a pay cut as a UFA?

You and I both know Marner should have been signed a year earlier on his last deal for $7.5-$8.5 mil X 8 years when that was the discussions.

So either chalk it up to GM incompetence or player and agent greed to get to 6 years at $10.9 mil.. But essentially Marner has priced himself out of Toronto.

His current deal at $10.9 mil is much higher than his comparables Kucherov @ $9.5 mil Rantanen @$9.5 mil (both with recent Cups). Matthew Tkachuk just signed for 9.5 mil X 8 years in SCF.

How can one validate Marner's contract at his current rate never mind be considering a raise up from $10.9 mil?

Marner's 2nd contract should really be his 3rd and new one and even that is being generous. So only option paycut or a trade out of Toronto so the New GM can reset the Leafs internal pay scale to league standards if the Leafs hope to win in the playoffs. IMO

2 wrongs don't make a right, so the Leafs can't afford to double down on a previous contract mistake in the best interest of team competitiveness going forward.

 

[ToneDog]

You and I both know Marner should have been signed a year earlier on his last deal for $7.5-$8.5 mil X 8 years when that was the discussions.

So either chalk it up to GM incompetence or player and agent greed to get to 6 years at $10.9 mil.. But essentially Marner has priced himself out of Toronto.

View attachment 717425

His current deal at $10.9 mil is much higher than his comparables Kucherov @ $9.5 mil Rantanen @$9.5 mil (both with recent Cups). Matthew Tkachuk just signed for 9.5 mil X 8 years in SCF.

How can one validate Marner's contract at his current rate never mind be considering a raise up from $10.9 mil?

Marner's 2nd contract should really be his 3rd and new one and even that is being generous. So only option paycut or a trade out of Toronto so the New GM can reset the Leafs internal pay scale to league standards if the Leafs hope to win in the playoffs. IMO

17 days until they get their wallets filled with bonus money. Wonder if they send Kyle a thank you card.

 

[Mess]

17 days until they get their wallets filled with bonus money. Wonder if they send Kyle a thank you card.

Lets trade Marner to Pittsburgh before July 1st bonus kicks in and his full NMC, to re-unite him with his GM that gave him that contract.

Think of the points Marner would score on line with Crosby or Malkin and PP with both.

 

[thewave]

So basically another year of playoff failure.
I doubt anything will change until the Tavares nightmare contract ends

Blaming JT and his contract is the most disingenuous thing you could do. It has more to do with how poor the character of the big 3 are. They are soft. The coaching was terrible as was the GM and Pres overseeing the whole failure.

Dont do the Leafy thing here. Next it will be Lilgrin etc.

 

[ToneDog]

Lets trade Marner to Pittsburgh before July 1st bonus kicks in and his full NMC, to re-unite him with his GM that gave him that contract.

Think of the points Marner would score on line with Crosby or Malkin and PP with both.

Pens are probably worse off capwise than the Leafs. No way they can fit $11m Skip in unless they dump Crosby, LOL.

 

[Racer88]

Blaming JT and his contract is the most disingenuous thing you could do. It has more to do with how poor the character of the big 3 are. They are soft. The coaching was terrible as was the GM and Pres overseeing the whole failure.

Dont do the Leafy thing here. Next it will be Lilgrin etc.

I don’t blame JT for anything. I blame management for going and getting him.
he was not what we needed at the time and his 11 million contract has hampered this team

 

[ToneDog]

I don’t blame JT for anything. I blame management for going and getting him.
he was not what we needed at the time and his 11 million contract has hampered this team

I blame Leafs management for overpaying him by up to $1m and then not moving Kadri to LW in year two.

 

[notdoneyet]

Neither matthews or marner deserve one penny of a raise

Willy deserves 8.5/9

Thats it

What has matthews done to deserve to be paid the most in the nhl
For a guy of his size he has no drive, no it factor to take the team on his shoulders like the other top players.

 

[Mess]

Leafs have an internal pay scale problem that doesn't line up with the rest of the NHL and doesn't even make sense internally either.

Scoring Leaders 2022-23

Nylander is currently making nearly $4 mil a season less than Marner. Does anyone believe there is $4 mil gap in team impact value here?

So Willy's contract is up for renewal and you reward his play with a +$2 mil raise per season up from $7 mil to $9 mil per. Now he moves to within $2 mil of Marner and much closer in value.

Then you turn around and sign Matthews for $13-14 mil and Marner wants his $2 mil raise also like his teammates and is up to $12.9 and again making +$4 mil more than Nylander AGAIN.

Put yourself in Willy's shoes he outproduces the teams 2 X $11 mil centers and the organization views him differently because of the overpayment of the other 3 teammates.

All you're doing is doubling down on the contract mistakes of the past GM and not fixing the Cap Hell situation of 4 forwards eating up 1/2 the cap.

Something has to give here for me it Marner's contract that is one most overpaid and only way to fix is to trade him away.

 

[Mess]

Neither matthews or marner deserve one penny of a raise

Willy deserves 8.5/9

Thats it

What has matthews done to deserve to be paid the most in the nhl
For a guy of his size he has no drive, no it factor to take the team on his shoulders like the other top players.

Matthews I get his situation to a point in that he is a franchise #1C and so he is expected to move the bar up for the NHLPA.. No problem.

McDavid @$12.5 mil (best player on the planet), then MacKinnon off a Cup win = $12.6 mil AAV so Matthews due up next $12.7 mil AAV x 8 years.
Marner should be a $9.5 mil max now.
Nylander gets his raise to $8.5-$9 mil.
JT gets his $11 mil cut in 1/2 when it expires to $5.5 mil to stay.

 

[Trapper]

Leafs have an internal pay scale problem that doesn't line up with the rest of the NHL and doesn't even make sense internally either.

Scoring Leaders 2022-23

View attachment 717437

Nylander is currently making nearly $4 mil a season less than Marner. Does anyone believe there is $4 mil gap in team impact value here?

So Willy's contract is up for renewal and you reward his play with a +$2 mil raise per season up from $7 mil to $9 mil per. Now he moves to within $2 mil of Marner and much closer in value.

Then you turn around and sign Matthews for $13-14 mil and Marner wants his $2 mil raise also like his teammates and is up to $12.9 and again making +$4 mil more than Nylander AGAIN.

Put yourself in Willy's shoes he outproduces the teams 2 X $11 mil centers and the organization views him differently because of the overpayment of the other 3 teammates.

All you're doing is doubling down on the contract mistakes of the past GM and not fixing the Cap Hell situation of 4 forwards eating up 1/2 the cap.

Something has to give here for me it Marner's contract that is one most overpaid and only way to fix is to trade him away.

Nylander is starting his raise from 7.5. His cap is 6.9 but he actually makes 7.5 mil/year.

Now that 2 million increase to 9.5 probably seems fair in terms of league comparisons, but if Matthews/Marner both become the highest paid players in the league say at 13-15 million, is it fair for Nylander to be 4 million behind them?
Only 2 players on your list are 40 goal scorers now. The big center and the lowest paid guy.

 

[Smif]

Gaudreau lead the league in ES scoring and got $9.75M x 7

Let's talk about this on-ice impact some more please. Because leading the league in ES scoring seems like more on-ice impact than Marner has ever provided.

And you're right, let's not touch Kane. The 2nd contract he signed compared to Marner's shouldn't be compared at all - Kane's deal was far more team friendly. Him winning 3 cups obviously factored into his 3rd one.

I think dismissing the selke level defense is a mistake.

 

[ToneDog]

Matthews I get his situation to a point in that he is a franchise #1C and so he is expected to move the bar up for the NHLPA.. No problem.

McDavid @$12.5 mil (best player on the planet), then MacKinnon off a Cup win = $12.6 mil AAV so Matthews due up next $12.7 mil AAV x 8 years.
Marner should be a $9.5 mil max now.
Nylander gets his raise to $8.5-$9 mil.
JT gets his $11 mil cut in 1/2 when it expires to $5.5 mil to stay.

I like but not realistic because Mitch and JT are up in two years. Marner gonna start at 12m. If you are not prepared for that, you have 17 days to move him.

 

[Antropovsky]

All he comparisons of Kane and Marner... The only thing Marner has achieved more than Kane is a higher RFA contract.

The three seasons before RFA contracts Kane had a points per game at .94
The three seasons before RFA contracts Marner had a points per game at.93

- When Patrick Kane signed he had just won the Stanley cup and the year before went to conference finals
- When Marner signed his team hadn't won a series yet

- In those playoff series Kane had 19 goals and 42 playoff points in 38 playoff games.
- prior to Marner signing he had 5 goals 17 points in 20 playoffs

-82 games for the playoffs before RFA have kane at 41 goal 91 point pace
- 82 games for the playoffs before RFA have Marner at 20 goal 69 point pace

- Kane was the 1st overall draft pick
- Marner a 5th overall pick

- Patrick Kane won NHL rookie of the year award
- Mitch Marner came in 5th for Nhl rookie of year award

- the year Kane signed RFA he was 1st on team in points, with 19 more than next
- the year Marner signed RFA he was 1st on his team, with 6 more than next

- the year Kane signed contract and had 88 points he was 8th in league scoring
- the year Marner signed contract he had 94 and was 11th in league scoring

- the year Kane signed he had 88 points on a team with 271 goals and 209 against
- the year Marner signed he had 94 on a team with 286 goals and 251 against

- Kanes RFA contract was only 9% of the cap or 6.3 million in 2010
- Marners RFA contract was 13.38 of the cap or 7.6 million in 2010

- as a rookie Kane was 1st on team and 10 more than next best blackhawk
- as a rookie Marner was 5th on his team in points

.....any way you slice it Kane was the better player. These two'as achievements leading to their RFA contracts weren't even close yet Marner was given a better contract at a higher hit.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I like but not realistic because Mitch and JT are up in two years. Marner gonna start at 12m. If you are not prepared for that, you have 17 days to move him.

I'd bite the bullet and do it, assuming of course we get a massive return (which seems almost certainly will).

A part of me hates to do it, he's been so good during the regular season and when he's on he's just so much fun to watch. And the last two seasons it seems like he got even better, was good against TB in the playoffs and I really thought that the days of him dropping off in the playoffs were over.

Then came game 3 against Florida. The biggest game of the year, the season on the line and he looked so nervous while playing possibly the worst game of his entire career. I just can't view him as a leader, a player we can count on to rise up in important games and I don't see how anyone else can either. There's always a chance he figures it out I guess and there's always that risk when you trade a player with that kind of talent. Keeping him and paying him 12m long term is also a risk though, and as of right now that seems like the bigger risk by far.

Kids got a couple of prime years left and by the time the new contract kicks in, the decline will be just about ready to begin. It may well be a slow decline but if he can't be counted on when he's in his prime, thinking he'll do so later on seems like a pipe dream. He's a regular season wonder boy but I want to win in the playoff success and since I don't have faith in Marner, I'd rather give someone else a shot.

Unfortunately, I don't think this will happen. I sure hope I'm wrong though, we'll see.

 

[ACC1224]

I like but not realistic because Mitch and JT are up in two years. Marner gonna start at 12m. If you are not prepared for that, you have 17 days to move him.

Not sure what his ask will be but I would think the Leafs would be ok with 12.

 

[Arzak]

Lets trade Marner to Pittsburgh before July 1st bonus kicks in and his full NMC, to re-unite him with his GM that gave him that contract.

Think of the points Marner would score on line with Crosby or Malkin and PP with both.

Crosby and Malkin + 1st for Marner
Paul can supply a random chart showing Marner's offense at the 98 percentile to sweeten the deal.

I imagine he could get to at least 150% if he added an NHL wrist shot.
200% potential if he can add both slap and wrist shots and/ or play in the slot?